#$asmb

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday:  Assembly Biosciences, Comerica, Marathon Oil, ServiceNow & Toronto-Dominion

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Assembly Biosciences, Ticker: $ASMB

Assembly Biosciences, $ASMB, started up out of consolidation late last year. It took a couple of steps up before settling into another consolidation in March that lasted until the end of August. The move higher from there met resistance in October and pulled back then reversed and is back at the prior high coming into the week. The RSI is rising and bullish and the MACD moving up. Look for a push to a new high to participate.....

Comerica, Ticker: $CMA

Comerica, $CMA, started higher off of a low in September. It paused as it hit a new high in October and then jumped again. It met resistance and pulled back in November to the 50 day SMA and then reversed higher. Now it is back at the high coming into the week. The RSI is rising and the MACD is about to cross up, supporting more upside. Look for a push higher to participate.....

Marathon Oil, Ticker: $MRO

Marathon Oil, $MRO, made a high in December and then pulled back for the next 6 months. It had a failed bounce in July and then made a lower low in August, before rising in a move that is sticking. It started to pullback from a top earlier this month and then reversed to close the past week. The RSI is reversing higher as well and the MACD is slowing its descent and leveling. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

ServiceNow, Ticker: $NOW

ServiceNow, $NOW, started higher off of its 200 day SMA at the beginning of the year. The initial move failed in February and it pulled back to a low in April. From there is has steadily trended higher. In the short term, it enters the week consolidating under resistance with tight Bollinger Bands®. The RSI has turned higher and the MACD is trying to cross up. Look for a push over resistance to participate.....

Toronto-Dominion Bank, Ticker: $TD

Toronto-Dominion Bank, $TD, started moving higher in May, breaking a downtrend in June. It had an interim peak in July before a mild pullback and a new run higher that stalled in October. Since then it has been consolidating as it draws to the rising 20 day SMA. The RSI is bullish and the MACD trying to turn up. Look for a push to a new high to participate.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with November options expiration behind sees the markets driving into the shortened Thanksgiving week with a changing of the guard to the small caps.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil works through short term resistance. The US Dollar Index pauses in its short term uptrend while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite is taking a breather in its uptrend and Emerging Markets are consolidating their move higher.

Volatility looks to remain very low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. On the shorter timeframe the IWM is now taking the lead as the SPY and QQQ consolidate. In the longer frame they still need to prove themselves a leader as the QQQ and SPY mark time. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

[dragonflycap]

Assembly Biosciences Looks to Join the Percussion Section

I first wrote about Assembly Biosciences in late January here. The stock was maintaining a consolidation channel but looked ready for a big move higher. I suggested that even if you did not want to watch it that you could put a standing order to buy on the break out. If you did then you can stop reading now as you are up 50% in the position. But if you didn't you just may be in luck.

The chart above shows the move from 9 to 15 over a few days in mid February. A big move and it is absorbing that now. But in fact the last 8 days of consolidation has built a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern can break to the upside or downside, but when it follows a quick move higher the move is often to continue higher. The pattern looks for a move out of the triangle equal to the wide end of the triangle. This would be a move of $3.50 on the break out. 

If it goes to the upside that would target 17.75. But it would also trigger a Measured Move to 19.50 above that. The RSI is bullish and has now worked off the overbought condition while the MACD is level. Should these hold it would also favor the upside. 

But the triangle can break either way. And a break down would also trigger a lucrative trade. This would look for a move to 10 but that close to the break out level one should not be surprised if it kept going to 9.

More at Dragonfly Capital and get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades.

[dragonflycap]

Assembling a BioTech Trade in Assembly Biosciences

Biotech has been a hot area for over a year. And every time it looks like the top may be in and pullback underway prices reverse higher again. Most of this market sector is driven by new drug trials and approvals. I know nothing about that. But what I do know is that when investors and traders learn about the results big moves can happen.

And most often someone knows early and the move starts ahead of the data. It may not happen every time or even the next time. But that is some color from my view.

One name that has been on my radar for a couple of months in this space is Assembly Biosciences ($ASMB). They may do great things or not (they deal with poop), but that is besides the point. The chart of the stock price is what interests me. This stock had a massive drop in February 2014 and has since settled since then at the 23.6% retracement of the down move.

It is not ready yet, but on a move over the October highs, over 9.47 the 38.2% retracement level at 11.58 or the 50% level at 13.85 or higher would be the target. There is no resistance until then. There is not much short interest in this stock, but with low daily volume it still could squeeze higher on the trigger.

you can set an alert for this or just place a Good til Canceled Contingent Buy Order. This order would trigger on a move over 9.50 to buy the stock whether you are watching it or not. the daily chart (not shown) has the stock moving higher over the 20 day SMA with a rising RSI and MACD. So now may not be a bad time to get ready.

More at Dragonfly Capital and get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades.