Discover Top Posts Tagged with #$fosl

A solution to improve your patience as a trader

Dr. Brett Steenbarger, the Coach K of trading coaches, generously visited our firm today and spoke with our traders. I asked him to tackle four issues during his discussion:

I want to take my trading to the next level

If I could just wait for my setups

If I could just stop taking lesser trades

Define the competitive trader

I wrote about the first three issues in my blog post yesterday, We are all working on that on our trading desk as well.

But when you have the Coach K of trading coaches grace your firm, you ask him to share his thoughts on these vexing trading issues.

The discussion was fascinating, with pages of note-taking. Of particular note, was a question from a Junior Trader working to be more patient with his trading- more selective.

How can I be more patient as a trader?

I spoke up and shared for the Junior Trader to develop a plan to conquer this issue with work before and after markets. That the trader’s success overcoming this real-time issue would be the culmination of the excellent work before and after market hours. From my seat, traders stress way too much about real-time willpower and trade decisions and miss that all of that is just the result of the excellent work before and after markets.

I posited some specific ideas to improve patience in real-time:

Visualization

Filters alerting you to your best setups

Talk to other traders about your finest moments trading

PlayBook your best setups

Create a roadmap before the open of your best opportunities

Dr. Steenbarger brainstormed a real-time trader exercise as a solution. He challenged the traders to research their median trades per day, then divide by two, and then take no more than that number of trades each day until they become consistent. Create artificial boundaries to trade less so you trade more consistently.

Trading more patiently is not hopeless for you. It requires ideas to solve the problem and sticking to your improvement plan. It’s not your willpower in real-time holding you back. It’s the solutions waiting for you to design not yet incorporated into your trading.

Huge thank you to Dr. Steenbarger for his time, ideas and trader chat!

We are all working on that on our trading desk as well

It’s never just patience

Patience pays

*no relevant positions

#$FOSL #$AIG #$ALKS #$FANG #$GM #$TMUS #$NVDA

5 Stocks to Watch this Week 2/13 - FOSL, CSCO, TRIP, MAR, DE

Tuesday, February 14

Wednesday, February 15

Friday, February 17

Fossil (FOSL)

Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Reports February 14, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $1.22, one cent above the sell-side consensus and 16% lower than the same period a year earlier. That estimate has decreased 4% since Fossil’s last quarterly report. Revenue is anticipated to decrease 2% to $975 Million, $5M below Wall Street.

What to Watch: Fossil has posted 5 consecutive quarters of negative growth and is about to make it 6. While the company’s bet on smartwatches are expected to drive growth, that innovation has come at a price, and margins for those items are lower than traditional watches. The market for traditional watches and accessories remains challenging, however, which is why Fossil is hoping that diversifying into wearables will get them through the rough patch. Last quarter the company narrowed its 2016 outlook due to these factors.

Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Information Technology - Communications Equipment | Reports February 15, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $0.58, 4 cents above the Wall Street consensus and up 2% from the same period last year. That estimate has decreased 5% since Cisco’s most recent report in October. Revenue is anticipated to come in at $11.6B, 2% lower than the year-ago results, and $90M higher than the sell-side’s consensus.

What to Watch: Cisco has a history of beating analysts estimates and is looking to extend its streak tomorrow. Cisco’s winning strategy includes expanding its product portfolio beyond switching and routing products to high growth markets such as cyber security and Internet of Things. Partnerships with Salesforce and Pure Storage along with the acquisitions of CloudLock will help secure greater market share and support top line growth. Unfortunately, Cisco still derives a large portion of revenue from networking switches and routers which continue to show limited growth and upside. As this continues to show weakness Cisco’s other products will be relied on more heavily to carry performance. Analysts are expecting this quarter to worsen from previous quarters on the back of weakness in its legacy business. Additionally, increasing competition, weak IT spending, and currency headwinds should play a role in sluggish growth this upcoming quarter.

TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Catalog Retail | Reports February 15, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.31, 1 cent above the Wall Street consensus. Revenue expectations of $326.6 million are roughly in-line with the sell-side consensus. Expectations have decreased 7% since last quarter, putting YoY growth expectations at -29% for EPS and 7% for sales.

What to watch: Stronger travel trends are emerging as evidenced by robust results from the airlines, and other travel booking sites such as Expedia and Priceline this earnings season. This should bode well for TRIP which has already seen shares rise 11% in 2017. The company has taken on several new initiatives recently, including the very successful Instant Booking, expansion into restaurant reservations and development of mobile offerings. TripAdvisor operates in a very competitive online travel agency market that is largely a two horse race between Expedia and Priceline. TRIP is beginning to close the gap though with the acquisition of CityMaps and a new more user friendly website. Expectations have still edged lower in the past 3 months with analysts calling for negative YoY earnings growth.

Marriott International (MAR)

Consumer Discretionary - Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Reports February 15, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.85, one cent above the Wall Street consensus. The Revenue expectation of $4.85 billion is $30M above sell-side consensus. Expectations have decreased 4% since last quarter, putting YoY growth expectations at 10% for EPS and 30% for sales.

What to watch: Marriott is likely to benefit for the very same reasons as TRIP. Increasing travel demand along with continued expansion are expected to boost the quarter's results. While expected earnings of growth of 10% would be the lowest amount since Q1 2014, expected revenue growth of 30% would be the highest since MAR has IPO’d in 1998. Its recent acquisition of Starwood Resorts makes Marriott the largest hotel operator in the world and provides a huge new layer of revenue.

Deere & Company (DE)

Industrials - Machinery | Reports February 17, before the open.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $0.62 on $4.925 billion in revenue, above Wall Street by 11 cents on the bottom-line and $300M on the top. Compared to a year earlier, this reflects a 25% decrease in earnings and a 13% decrease on sales. Earnings estimates have increased 13% the last quarter, while revenues increased 5%.

What to Watch: Deere and other machinery names have been seeing upgrades to their fundamentals in the wake of the nomination of President Trump and his promise to increase infrastructure spending in the US. Just this year, DE’s stock is up 7.5%. Deere has a great record of surprising to the upside, beating Wall Street estimates on EPS for the last 4 years. Investors are hoping they can do so again when they report on Friday.

Get your estimates for this week in here!

(Photo Credit: Insider Monkey)

#$FOSL #$CSCO #$TRIP #$MAR #$DE #$SPY #$^GSPC

5 Stocks to Watch that Report Earnings Tomorrow

3D Systems (DDD): While 3D printers have lost most of their mainstream appeal, it doesn’t mean they’ve been completely forgotten. 3D Systems is still thriving by selling printers to both commercial and recreational customers. Its portfolio of healthcare solutions are expected to drive longer-term growth. These include end-to-end simulation, training and planning and practicing surgical instruments and devices for personalized surgery. Precision surgical equipment is often very expensive which is why investors are so enthusiastic about these new affordable alternatives. Additionally, DDD unveiled its newest systems, Figure 4, earlier this year, which is being promoted as faster and more efficient than previous models. Heightened competition from heavy hitters like HP and Stratasys will continue to be near-term threats to earnings and revenue.

Fossil (FOSL): Shares of the watchmaker are down over 50% from a year earlier despite topping analysts estimates in 2 of the past 3 quarters. Fossil’s foray into wearable technology is proving to be a smart one, aiding in the near term turnaround. Some of this should also help offset the downturn in traditional timepieces that has occurred over the past few quarters. The Estimize consensus is forecasting a rebound in comps this quarter to reflect an improving consumer spending environment and growing wearable tech sector.

CyberArk (CYBR): Outside of Fortinet, the cyber security space is expected to continue growing at a rapid clip. The new and ongoing threats to our digital sovereignty will keep demand for these products rising higher. CyberArk is in a favorable position to tap these opportunities supported by frequent investments in its product suite and several strategic acquisitions. As the industry continues to grow, competition will also heighten. Already, the space is nearing saturation with a glut of names like Cisco, FireEye and Symantec to name a few.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): The chipmaker was dealt a blow last week after Apple reported weaker than expected earnings. iPhone sales continued to slow down during the third quarter which is a poor sign for the companies that produce chips in the phone. Shares are still up 15% in the past 3 months as analysts expect the chipmaker to post a marginal improvement this quarter. The company remains well positioned to capitalize on the IoT on other higher growth technologies.

Qorvo (QRVO): Qorvo is in a similar position as Skyworks following Apple’s weaker third quarter results. The chipmaker currently generates a majority of total revenue from the iPhone which is seeing demand fall. Fortunately, like Skyworks, Qorvo is positioned in many high growth markets to diversify its portfolio beyond the iPhone. Qrvo recently released two new products to its cable networking business that will help support the top line.

How do you think these names will report? Be included in the Estimize consensus by contributing your estimates here!

#$DDD #$HPQ #$SSYS #$FOSL #$CYBR #$CSCO #$FEYE #$SYMC #$SKWS #$AAPLE #$QRVO #$SPY #$^GSPC

Time to Load Up on Coach, Kors?

Coach, Michael Kors, and other "aspirational" goods sellers have been forced to adjust their strategies in an increasingly difficult operating environment.

Want to read more of Valuentum’s research and analysis? Please consider becoming a member at www.valuentum.com. Or subscribe here.

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By Kris Rosemann

Coach (COH), Michael Kors (KORS), Fossil (FOSL), and Ralph Lauren (RL) all beat consensus estimates in the calendar second quarter of 2016, but the way the market reacted to the beats varied drastically despite none of the above firms necessarily issuing outright optimistic expectations. The weak outlooks have weighed on shares of Coach and Michael Kors, but shares of Fossil and Ralph Lauren have received an updraft in hopes of turnaround strategies and sales-decline stemming plans beginning to take hold.

Ongoing weakness in retail traffic across the US, and a decrease in tourism in major domestic cities have played an important role in the growing issues for luxury brands. In an attempt to combat traffic pressures, many department stores have been offering significant discounts on many luxury goods, which has forced Coach, Michael Kors, and Ralph Lauren to reconsider their strategies in the retail environment. In order to protect their brand images, the firms have decided to pull their products from those offering their luxury goods at deep discounts. Though such a move will undoubtedly bring near-term pain, protecting the branding of an aspirational-luxury goods maker is imperative to long-term success.

Coach reported a relatively solid fourth quarter of its fiscal 2016 (calendar second quarter) in which net sales jumped 15% on a year-over-year basis and North American comparable store sales increased 25%. Operating margin expansion helped drive non-GAAP earnings per share to $0.45 from $0.31 in the comparable period of fiscal 2015. However, Coach brand net sales at department stores in North America declined at a high-single-digit rate compared to the year-ago period. Coach now expects to close ~250 of its wholesale locations and issue a reduction in markdown allowances, which it hopes will preserve its brand as a high-end aspirational target for consumers.

Nevertheless, Coach expects fiscal 2017 to be the year in which it returns to growth across all financials, including the assumption of low-single-digit comparable store sales growth in North America. Revenue is expected to increase in the low-to-mid single digit range, while earnings per diluted share is expected to make a double-digit jump from fiscal 2016. The firm’s balance sheet, and the financial flexibility it offers, continues to be a key attribute in its turnaround plan, as its net cash position stood above $443 million as of the end of the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2016. We think the company, and its ~3.3% dividend yield, continues to be a nice fit in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Michael Kors' first quarter of fiscal 2017 (calendar second quarter) was not nearly as strong as that of Coach. The firm reported total revenue roughly in-line with that of the year-ago period. While retail sales advanced 7.6% thanks to new store openings, primarily in Asia, wholesale net sales fell 7% and comparable sales decreased 7.4%. Net income per ordinary share on a diluted basis dropped $0.04 from the comparable period in fiscal 2016 to $0.83 in the quarter as ongoing investments in international expansion, digital flagships, and global infrastructure resulted in an increase in operating expenses.

Michael Kors' management was encouraged by the firm’s progress in its North American digital flagships and its global expansion, though such progress was offset by material weakness in its more traditional North American business due to suppressed mall traffic levels and lower tourism spending in major cities. Similar to Coach’s strategy, the company is also working to avoid the aspirational-brand image tarnishing, ultra-competitive discounting taking place at department stores across the US. As CEO John Idol said, “The amount of promotional activity from many of the people who carry our line was at its all-time high, and we had to compete to be able to move our inventories during that period of time. That’s the whole cycle we are going to get ourselves out of.”

Michael Kors expects the aforementioned top-line pressures and operating margin suppressors to continue to impact fiscal 2017 results. The company is projecting total revenue to be flat from fiscal 2016 with comparable sales falling in the mid-single digit range, the latter of which is a downward revision from initial guidance of a low-single digit decline. GAAP diluted earnings per share are expected to come in a range of $4.47-$4.54 compared to $4.44 in fiscal 2016. We will continue to hold shares, which are trading at just over 11 times fiscal 2017 earnings, in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as we continue to believe in the firm as a long-term idea “Fundamental Strength To Outweigh Short-Term Volatility.”

Michael Kors continues to feel the pain of its global watch licensing agreement with Fossil, which reported a net sales decline of 7% on a year-over-year basis, due to a 10% drop in its watches revenue. Management pointed specifically to its licensed brand category of watches as a key drag on its overall sales growth, and the company was not exempt from the pressures impacting its peers. Global retail comps fell 3% in the quarter from the year-ago period as positive comps in its full price stores were mitigated by material comp declines in its outlet stores, and strength in Asia was offset by weakness in the Americas and Europe.

Though Fossil’s quarter left a good deal to be desired, its shares have received an updraft thanks to its better-than-expected reported results. The firm continues to face an uphill battle in its core watches business, which accounts for ~75% of total sales, as the recent increase in wearable technologies continues to weigh on demand for traditional watches. It has attempted to enter the wearables market, but we have our concerns with the true competitive potential of such offerings from a traditional watch maker entering the market considerably later than many. In addition, Fossil’s brand strength could mean little next to the likes of Apple (AAPL) in the wearables market, in our opinion.

Ralph Lauren has seen many of the same market dynamics impacting its business as its peers. The firm reported a less-than-spectacular first quarter of fiscal 2017 (calendar second quarter), but it beat consensus estimates and its shares have rallied as a result of its execution of its turnaround plan. The company’s ‘Way Forward’ plan remains its focus, and is a large reason why investors were not expecting much in terms of financial performance from it in the most recent quarter. Net revenues fell 4% on a year-over-year basis as wholesale revenue was pushed down 5% by US department store weakness and retail revenue was dragged down 3% by a 6% decrease in comparable store sales.

Operating income margin at Ralph Lauren fell roughly half as much as it was expected to in the period, a large positive for the firm as it continues to set its sights down the road. Adjusted net income per diluted share fell to $1.06 from $1.09 in the year-ago period but easily beat consensus estimates of $0.89; full-year guidance was not increased, however. Like its peers, the company also expects to reduce its reliance on the discretion of traffic-desperate department stores, but it will cut 1,000 jobs and close stores in accordance with its restructuring plans associated with its ‘Way Forward’ plan. $180-$220 million in annualized cost savings are anticipated as a result.

The operating environment for aspirational goods producers is not likely to improve in the near term either; strategy adjustments and restructuring initiatives from players within the space speak to this notion, in our view. We may see more share price volatility across the group as their respective strategies play out, and we’ll continue watching the newsletter portfolio constituents in the arena like a hawk. We continue to hold onto Coach as it works toward righting the ship with respect to its brand image. Its quarterly payout looks to be on solid ground, and at ~2% of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, we like what it does for us in terms of diversification in a portfolio context. We continue to believe in future price-to-fair value convergence in shares of Michael Kors, which are currently trading below the lower bound of our fair value range of $53-$79, though the road may be bumpy. Kors is included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Interested in Valuentum’s newsletter portfolios? Learn more here.

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This article or report and any links within are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this article and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the article and are subject to change without notice. For more information about Valuentum and the products and services it offers, please contact us at [email protected].

#$coh #$kors #$fosl #$rl

5 Stocks to Watch this Week 8/8: COH, DIS, YELP, FOSL, SHAK

Tuesday, August 9

Wednesday, August 10

Coach (COH)

Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods| Reports August 9, before the open.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings of 41 cents per share on $1.155 billion in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top. Compared to a year earlier, earnings are expected to increase by 33% with revenue increasing 15%. Revisions activity since Coach’s last report show that EPS estimates have increased 8%, while sales estimates have remained flat.

What to Watch: Fellow purse designer, Kate Spade, kicked off earnings season for luxury brands on quite a sour note last week. After missing bottom-line expectations, the stock plunged over 20%. Unfortunately, a weak quarter from KATE might not bode well for Coach and other luxury brands reporting this week.

Coach has only recently dug itself out of the hole. In the past 12 months shares are up 27% as comparable store sales begin to gain traction. North American comparables have steadily improved after comps declined by double digits every quarter last year.

The new Disney collection along with an emphasize on lower price merchandise and ecommerce growth have helped drive sales. The problem with discounting is that it takes a toll on gross margins. Coach outlets currently account for 65% of total revenue, so it might be difficult to avoid collapsing margins.

Disney (DIS)

Consumer Discretionary - Media | Reports August 9, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of 1.63 on $14.31 billion in revenue. Earnings per share and revenue estimates have increased by 6% and 2%, respectively, since Disney’s last report in May. Profits are now expected to grow 12% YoY and sales by 9%.

What to Watch: Three segment typically stick out when Disney reports earnings; media networks, theme parks and studios. Media revenue has been in a steady decline since ESPN troubles began. Last quarter ad sales at the sports network fell 13% because of fewer college football playoff games. The company has made strides in alleviating the downturn by partnering with distributors. Noted distributors like Sling TV are seeing encouraging upward momentum after adding ESPN to its portfolio.

Investors often forget that studios and theme parks have performed remarkably well in recent quarters. The company’s film unit took off due to the blockbuster hit Star Wars: The Force Awakens and they haven’t looked back since. Last quarter the company saw sales from studio entertainment rise 22% thanks to Zootopia, Captain America and The Jungle Book. This quarter should be largely driven by the success of Finding Dory. Disney’s movie pipeline is incredibly deep so it won’t be surprising if revenue continues to grow from here.

The recent success of its films have carried over to theme parks. Disney World is in the process of opening a Star Wars themed attraction and will continue to do so with other popular movies. This segment reported a 4% gain last quarter and should continue to be a huge earner moving forward. Disney recently opened new theme parks in Asia. Disney Shanghai has already attracted millions of visitors since opening less than a month ago.

Yelp (YELP)

Internet Technology - Internet Software & Services | Reports August 9, after the close.

Both the Estimize community and Wall Street is calling for Yelp’s earnings per share to come in at -$0.07 on revenues of $170 million. The crowd has drawn down their bottom-line estimates by 82% since the last report, while sales expectations have remained unchanged. Compared to a year earlier, profits are expected to fall 236%, while sales are pegged to increase by 27%.

What to Watch: While Yelp is the foremost trusted reviewing platform, this has yet to be reflected in earnings results. The company continually turns a loss in its efforts to stimulate revenue and drive user growth. Its efforts have somewhat paid off this year. Last quarter Yelp reported better than expected revenue thanks to 40% growth in its local services. The stock is also starting to show some signs of new life. Shares are up 15% year to date and 10% in the past 12 months.

Yelp’s surge in the last few months is coming to a screeching halt. Citigroup recently downgraded the stock from buy to neutral citing over-exuberant stock movement, modest ad revenue guidance and pressured margins. It’s been reported that user mobile and transaction sales slowed in the first quarter. Yelp also took liberties when it assumed a significant increase in margins in the second half of 2016.

Unfortunately, this isn’t Yelp’s only concern. Facebook has recently embarked on the local review space. Facebook’s review system eliminates internet anonymity typically associated with a Yelp rating. This poses a threat to web traffic and at the end of the day, ad revenue. Morgan Stanley estimates that roughly 50% of Yelp’s current ad-buyers will not purchase ad units in the next 12-months.

Fossil (FOSL)

Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Reports August 9, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $0.09 on $675 million in revenue, in-line with Wall Street on the bottom line and $3 million above on the top. Compared to a year earlier this reflects a 90% decrease in earnings and -9% growth in sales. Earnings estimates have increased 158% since the last quarterly report, with sales estimates unchanged.

What to watch: Fossil not only manufactures watches unders its own brand but also high fashion brands like Michael Kors and Kate Spade. Watch sales have been muted for some time now as demand across its multi brand portfolio continue to wane. Earnings have naturally followed this downward trend, delivering negative earnings and revenue growth for 3 consecutive quarters.

Lately, Fossil is seeing discouraging trends throughout its core business. Soft watch sales have driven weak comps in North America and sluggish performance in international markets. Currency headwinds and economic challenges haven’t helped in key Asian and European markets. The performance in those regions are greatly decelerating and aren’t expected to deliver much growth. This is largely the result of waning demand and unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

With its legacy business showing no signs of picking up, Fossil is looking to wearable technology to pick up the slack. The acquisition of Misfit provides Fossil with a platform to bring smartwatches and innovative technology to its customers. Wearable technology is one of the fastest growing markets and should help offset the trouble in its core business. However, it also adds a new layer of competition against the likes of Apple and Samsung, who both offer smartwatches.

Shake Shack (SHAK)

Consumer Discretionary - Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Reports August 10, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.14, 1 cent higher than Wall Street’s consensus. Revenue expectations are slightly higher than the sell-side, with the Estimize community expecting $63.3 million, as compared to $63.2 million. Earnings expectations have trended upward by 5% since last quarter, while revenue estimates are up 1%. This puts YoY growth expectations at 53% for EPS and 30% for sales.

What to Watch:

Shake Shack’s cult following and successful expansion has finally encouraged a turnaround in the stock which is now up nearly 5% YTD. This quarter, earnings are expected to come in strong once again, but slower than previous quarters. It could also be the first time earnings growth fails to hit triple digits, with last quarter just barely eking into that territory with 100% profit growth, but this quarter expecting almost half of that at 53%.

Arguably the more important metric for this company is same shack sales, which increased 9.9% in Q1 2016, and 13.3% in 2015. The outlook for 2016 isn’t as impressive, but has been revised upward. At the beginning of the year the company was guiding for same shack sales between 2.5 and 3.0%, but after robust Q1 results they increased that outlook to 4 - 5%.

One drag on Q2 results will be increased labor costs. Competition from fast-food names could also have their impact as value-focused consumers have taken a liking to McDonald’s and Wendy’s this year. Still, Shake Shack has a very loyal customer base which has only increased in recent years. The company continues to attract new customers with frequent menu updates. Shake Shack also continues with it’s aggressive expansion plan, with 16 domestic stores set to open this year, and 7 licensed Shacks scheduled to open in the U.K. Middle East and Japan.

How do you think these names will perform? Submit your estimates here!

(Photo Credit: .imelda)

#$COH #$DIS #$FOSL #$YELP #$SHAK #$SPY #$^GSPC

Is the End Near for Fossil?

Fossil, Inc. (FOSL) Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Reports August 9, After Market Closes

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of 9 cents on $674.95 million in revenue, right in line with Wall Street on the top and bottom line

Fossil is seeing weak comps and sales growth from sluggish demand, currency headwinds and macroeconomic challenges

The acquisition of Misfit last year positions Fossil to deliver smartwatches to its customers.

What are you expecting for FOSL? Get your estimate in here!

Watchmaker, Fossil, is scheduled to report second quarter earnings tomorrow, after the market closes. The company not only manufactures watches unders its own brand but also high fashion brands like Michael Kors and Kate Spade. Watch sales have been muted for some time now as demand across its multi brand portfolio continue to wane. Earnings have naturally following this downward trend, delivering negative earnings and revenue growth for 3 consecutive quarters. Given the ongoing changes in consumer behavior, don’t expect Fossil to right the ship this quarter.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of 9 cents, 90% lower than the same period last year. That estimate has increased 155% since Fossil’s last report in May. Revenue is anticipated nearly 10% lower at $674.95 million, marking 7 straight quarters of negative sales growth. Shares of Fossil have unsurprisingly suffered through these tumultuous times. The stock is down 52% in the past 12 months and typically don’t perform well during earnings season. On average, shares decline by as much as 3% shortly after results are announced. Lately, Fossil is seeing discouraging trends throughout its core business. Soft watch sales have driven weak comps in North America and sluggish performance in international markets. Currency headwinds and economic challenges haven’t helped in key Asian and European markets. The performance in those regions are greatly decelerating and aren’t expected to deliver much growth. This is largely the result of waning demand and unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

Photo Credit: Adriaan Goossens

#$FOSL #$KORS #$KATE #$AAPL #$SPY #$^GSPC

13F Summary For Q1

13F summary - stay tuned for a lot more analysis and coverage this is just the raw data for now. As always, be extremely careful when using 13F data whether for clone investing or narratives for many reasons we have explained in the past. Below is a summary not sure on the first firm but the other source is Dave Lutz of Jones Trading. Additionally, we reported on many of these hedge fund sells/buys etc. before the 13Fs see much more from our list of Q4 2015 and Q1 2016 hedge fund letters -> here

Adage Capital – Took stakes in GCP, CHTR, FOXA, ROK, X; Exited stakes in MHK, VC, SUNEQ, SO, KR; Increased stakes in RTN, DD, GE, DAL, VZ; Cut stakes in SYF, PFE, CFG, BA, TYC.

· Appaloosa Management – Took stakes in FB, SYD, MHK, BAC, FOXA; Exited stakes in PCLN, AAPL, HPE, CBI, EMN; Increased stakes in ETP, WPZ, CYH, AMLP, NXPI; Cut stakes in GM, KMI, HCA, GT, URI.

· Baupost Group – Took stakes in AGN, VMW, SRAQU, LQ, GNW; Exited stakes in DTR, OCN, KOS, MU, SN; Increased stakes in EMC, AR, FOXA, OLN, LNG; Cut stakes in PYPL, PBF, BXE, NG.

· Berkshire Hathaway – Took stakes in AAPL; Exited stakes in T; Increased stakes in PSX, IBM, CHTR, LBTYA, DE; Cut stakes in PG, MA, WBC, WMT.

· Bridgewater – Took stakes in DIS, MCD, POT, DISH; Exited stakes in BCE, VIAB, FOSL, TU, KO; Increased stakes in INTC, ESRX, RL; Cut stakes in AAPL, PEP, EXC, ORCL.

· Clinton Group – Took stakes in MAC, DPS, PG, MON, AFL; Exited stakes in LOW, Q, VNTV, NWL, TSS; Increased stakes in BA, DE, WFC, ESV, VOYA; Cut stakes in RTN, OKE, DAL, MMP, FISV.

· Corvex – Took stakes in NOMD, TMH, VRX, GLPI; Exited stakes in BAC, AN, CMA, CFG, KMI; Increased stakes in PFE, PAH, SIG, COMM, P; Cut stakes in GOOGL, VER, AGN

· Eagle Capital – Took stakes in FIS, MAR, APA; Cut stakes in BRK/B, HOT, ORCL, FOX, FOXA; Cut stakes in VRX, BABA, STZ, MS, MDLZ.

· Elliot Management – Took Stakes in OIBR, NE, EGN, PAH, PFE, QLIK, AA; Exited stakes in HPE, VMW, STE; Increased stakes in HES, CNP, SYMC, CAB, AA; Exited stakes in IPG, ODP, PRGO, RYAAY, FCB.

· Eminence Capital – Took stakes in LEN, HUM, ZBRA, RL, ANTM; Exited stakes in YUM, GOOG, HOT, ATVI, YELP; Increased stakes in CAA, AN, CCE, SPGI, LNKD; Cut stakes in TRIP, SJM, ZNGA, ABG, GPI

· Encompass – Took stakes in CLR, COG, RSPP, FANG, NSC, SRAQU, SPN, SHW, ESV, CIE; Exited stakes in DVN, ECA, OAS, PXD, GPOR, RICE, MRD, XEV, EPE, TS, CF, CSX, PTEN, WNR, TNK, IOC, EXTN, PES, FTI; Increased stakes in HES, NFX, EGN, SLCA; Cut stakes in NBR, GRA.

· Eton Park – Took stakes in BXLT, GLD, ITC, MHK, CDK; Exited stakes in ADSK, PRGO, AER, HUM, RAD; Increased stakes in TWC, SNDK, AGN, EMC, CRTO; Cut stakes in MSFT, ADBE, SHW, SBAC, ODP.

· Fairholme – Exited stakes in MRC, CNQ, BRK/B, AIG, IBM; Increased stakes in BAC, SRG, SRSC; Cut stakes in SHLD, LUK, SHLDW, AIG/WS, JOE.

· Farallon Capital – Took stakes in BXLT, THS, CTSH, FIS, IMS; Exited Stakes in SCHW, AMT, ARG, RAD; Increased stakes in SNDK, TWC, SBAC, EMC, GOOG; Cut stakes in KLAC, CI, AGN, RYAAY, BEAV

· Glenview – Took stakes in FIS, AAP, GPN; Exited stakes in PCLN, CYH, PVH, AMAT, MTW; Increased stakes in HCA, TWC, GOOGL, HLS, LBTYK; Cut stakes in MON, TMO, HUM, MCK, CI

· Greenlight – Took stakes in HTS, PVH, CYH, GSAT, LAMR; Exited stakes in CBI, OI, SNDK, GRMN, ON; Increased stakes AAPL, YHOO, M, AGNC, YELP; Cut stakes in IAC, AGR, TTWO, IM, TWX

· Hayman Capital – Took stakes in CLVS.

· HealthCor Management – Took stakes in AET, TMO, HLS, HUM, NBIX; Exited stakes in LLY, BXLT, ABT, VRTX, MYL; Increased stakes in DGX, MNK, ZBH, HCA, EW; Cut stakes in BCR, TEVA, ABC, MDVN, ACAD. ]

· Hound Partners – Took stakes in SERV, BLOX, GCP, GME, VWR, GLPI, NVTA; Exited stakes in AIG, GRA, HCA, TWX; Increased stakes in BIDU, CHTR, TSO, ADSK, QSR, C, SPR, VRX; Cut stakes in CRI, IPXL, WTW, TDG, FLT, CFX, AIG/WS.

· Icahn Associates – Took stakes in MFS; Exited stakes in AAPL, HOLX, TGNA, MENT, PBY, GCI; Increased stakes IEP, AIG, XRX; Cut stakes in PYPL, NUAN.

· Jana Partners – Took stakes in GOOG, SRCL, TMH, HDS, TDG; Exited stakes in QCOM, AIG, LBTYK, BAX, STRZA; Increased stakes in PFE; Cut stakes in CAG, LGF, AGN, LVNTA, WBA.

· Janus – Took stakes in WSM, TTC, EVHC, HLF, ARG; Exited stakes in VRX, PCRX, EURN, MXM, DATA; Increased stakes in NOC, BA, COST, TWX, SYF; Cut stakes in UNP, REGN, ENDP, LLY, CL.

· Lansdowne Partners – Took stakes in FB, JCI, UNH, RAI, AGR; Exited stakes in GS, TMUS, C, SYF, ETFC; Increased stakes in WFC, GOOGL, AMZN, JPM, UTX; Cut stakes in ACN, AAPL, LB, DIS, V.

· Lone Pine – Took stakes in AGN, BXLT, PYPL, MNST, YUM; Exited stakes in WMB, VRX, WBA, ATVI, ADSK; Increased stakes in FB, GOOG, NOC, GOOGL, EQIX; Cut stakes in ILMN, V, EA, AMZN, JD

· Moore Capital – Took stakes in FIS, BG; Exited stakes BAC, C, JPM, MCD; Increased stakes in GOOGL, AAPL, AME, MGM, DLTR; Cut stakes in FB, AMZN, CTRP, EQIX, RH.

· Omega Advisors – Took stakes in UNH, PYPL, GILD, ETP, BLL; Exited stakes in C, JPM, PFE, GLBL; Increased stakes in MSFT, TRGP, SYF, TRCO, WBA; Cut stakes in GOOGL, AGN, AIG, DISH, AER.

· Pershing Square – Took stakes in NOMD; Increased stakes in QSR, VRX; Cut stakes in APD, MDLZ

· Perry Corp – Exited stakes in WMB, CYH, CPGX, ETE, ETP; Increased stakes in AER; Cut stakes in TWX, AIG, HCA, SE.

· Rock Springs - Took Stakes in BMY, WBA, EW, ALKS, CRVS; Exited stakes in IDXX, RLYP, ABBV, PETX; Increased Stakes in WCG, AAAP, ISRG, PRTK, NVTA; Cut stakes in ACRS, RTRX, ICPT, INOV.

· Sachem Head – Took stakes in SBAC, TMH, FLT, ENDP; Exited stakes in FIS, ZTS, MYL, KSU; Increased stakes in CDK; Cut Stakes in AGN, AKRX, TWC.

· Sandell Asset – Took stakes in HOT, SNDK, BXLT, CAG, FCS; Exited stakes in ETH, FCE/A, ABG, VSLR; Increased stakes in YHOO, MEG, CVC, CIT; Cut stakes in VIAV, TVPT, ARG, XLF, ALLY.

· Starboard Value – Took stakes in MRVL, DEP, NXST; Exited stakes in MEG, ODP, NYRT, CI, LNCE; Increased stakes in YHOO, M, BAX, CW, WRK; Cut stakes in DRI, FCPT, QTM.

· Southeastern Asset – Took stakes in CF, VIPS; Exited stakes in NOV, MCD; Increased stakes in CNX, UTX, FDX, VSAT, TRCO; Cut stakes in LVLT, AON, RE, GOOG, MTN.

· Soros – Took stakes in ABX, BXLT, CCI, AVGO, SLB; Exited stakes in LVLT, DOW, ENDP, DAL, HYG; Increased stakes in EQIX, GLPI, EMC, HOT, SPY; Cut stakes in SYF, CYl, AGRO, AGN, LYB

· Temasek Holdings – Took stakes in FIS, BGNE; Increased stakes in ILMN, REGN, JD, GILD; Cut stakes in MON.

· Third Point – Took stakes in GOOGL, BXLT, LOW, TDG, EMC; Exited stakes in LBTYK, EBAY, MS, AXTA, CWEI; Increased stakes in YUM, DHR, CB, BUD, STZ; Cut stakes in AMGN, AGN, SJM, ROP, DOW.

· Tiger Global – Took stakes in Z; Exit stakes in VIPS, TDG, RH, BUD, ATHM; Increased stakes in CHTR, EHIC, ETSY, XON; Cut stakes in AMZN, JD, AAPL, PCLN, DATA.

· Trian Fund Management – Exited Stakes in PEP; Increased stakes in SYY, PNR, DD, BK, MDLZ; Cut stakes in GE.

· T.Rowe Price – Took stakes in BRFS, EDIT, BIN, AVXS, VALE; Exited stakes in SWM, APAM, NR, HBM, SFUN; Increased stakes in PM, NXPI, FB, WLTW, SYK; Cut stakes in VRX, GILD, ALXN, LNKD, BA.

· Tudor Investment – Took stakes in PEP, ITC, CL, MEG, CSCO; Exited stakes in ULTI, ADP, BABA; Increased stakes in FIS, MRK, WMT, ZBH; Cut stakes in FB, CSRA, EFX, CSC, TEVA.

· Viking Global – Took stakes in FB, LLY, JD, NWL, DVA; Exited stakes in VRX, MCK, PCLN, QUNR, BK; Increased stakes in COG, ECA, AVGO, GPOR, AMZN; Cut stakes in PXD, LYB, AGN, ABA, HUM.

· Visium Asset – Took stakes in CNC, BIIB, DD, HES, ICLR; Cut stakes in PPL, SCHW, ARVO, SIVB, TYC; Increased stakes in GILD, HUM, ALNY, CI, UHS; Cut stakes in AGN, BKD, PRGO, LH, PCRX.

· Wall Street Associates – Took stakes in INST, HCKT, AVGO, ATEN, K; Exited stakes in FLXN, CAST, EEFT, HLTH, BLKB; Increased stakes in SCOR, NPTN, SCAI, MIME, LUV; Cut stakes in TWOU, RNG, PTX, CALD, QTWO.

· Wellington – Took stakes in NOMD, CYH, MTSI, LHO, DKS; Exited stakes in BX, DATA, LQD, B, VAL; Increased stakes in NKE, PEP, AXP, CL, GS; Cut stakes in C, AGN, CSCO, AMZN, BMY.

Marcato discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New positions in CLNY, LIND, RLGY; closes CAR, LPLA, MDCA, BLD, TOWR : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: CLNY (~0.1 mln shares), LIND (~0.3 mln), RLGY (~1.6 mln)

Increased positions in: BLDR (to ~0.4 mln shares from ~0.1 mln shares), GT (to ~4.9 mln from ~7.2 mln)

Closed positions in: CAR (from ~5.7 mln shares), LPLA (from ~6 mln), MDCA (from ~0.2 mln), BLD (from ~0 mln), TOWR (from ~0.1 mln

Glenview Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Initiates new positions in FIS & AAP; increases positions in LBTYA, TWC, & GOOGL; & closes positions in CYH, MTW, & AMAT : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: FIS (~1 mln shares), AAP (~0.2 mln), GPN (~0.1 mln)

Increased positions in: LBTYA (to ~5.6 mln shares from ~4 mln shares), TWC (to ~1.4 mln from ~0.9 mln), GOOGL (to ~0.4 mln from ~0.2 mln)

Decreased positions in: CDNS (to ~2.3 mln shares from ~8.7 mln shares), ARMK (to ~2.6 mln from ~5.4 mln), PNR (to ~1.1 mln from ~3.6 mln), TMO (to ~3.6 mln from ~5.9 mln), CFG (to ~0.9 mln from ~3 mln)

Closed positions in: CYH (from ~11.6 mln shares), MTW (from ~9.6 mln), AMAT (from ~8.2 mln), GLBS (from ~3.5 mln), PVH (from ~2.4 mln)

Soros Fund discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: ABX (~19.4 mln shares) IBN (~1.4 mln), JMEI (~2.4 mln), OGE (~0.6 mln)

Increased positions in: MODN (to ~1.5 mln shares from ~1.1 mln shares), MMYT (to ~0.5 mln from ~0.2 mln), W (to ~0.4 mln from ~0.3 mln)

Decreased positions in: AYA (to ~0.3 mln shares from ~1.4 mln shares), AAL (to ~0.9 mln from ~1.8 mln), CY (to ~0.2 mln from ~16.4 mln), PYPL (to ~1.4 mln from ~3 mln), SYF (to ~0.4 mln from ~7.1 mln), AGRO (to ~14 mln from ~25.9 mln)

Closed positions in: ALLY (from ~1.5 mln shares), BHI (from ~0.7 mln), CRC (from ~8 mln), DOW (from ~3.1 mln), LVLT (from ~3.2 mln), VER (from ~3.9 mln)

Lone Pine discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new positions in AGN, BXLT, MNST; closed positions in TAP, VRX : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: AGN (~1.8 mln shares), BXLT (~10.6 mln), COMM (~0.9 mln), MNST (~1.1 mln), PYPL (~10.4 mln), YUM (~1.5 mln)

Increased positions in: NOC (to ~3.2 mln shares from ~2.1 mln shares)

Decreased positions in: PXD (to ~1.3 mln shares from ~2.4 mln shares), V (to ~7.5 mln from ~12.8 mln)

Closed positions in: HBI (from ~9.3 mln shares), TAP (from ~2.4 mln), VRX (from ~5.8 mln), WMB (from ~28.9 mln)

Pershing Square discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing (Recall that most of these are well known by now) : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: NOMD (~33.3 mln shares)

Increased positions in: VRX (to ~21.6 mln shares from ~16.6 mln shares)

Decreased positions in: APD (to ~7.6 mln shares from ~20.5 mln shares), MDLZ (to ~22.9 mln from ~43.4 mln)

Biotech investors Baker Bros discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Starts positions in ADMS, GWPH, NVIV, BGNE, EXEL; closes GILD, FLXN, OHRP, MRNS : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: ADMS (~0.2 mln shares), GWPH (~15K), NVIV (~0.4 mln) BGNE (~1.9 mln), EXEL (~2.6 mln)

Increased positions in: AGIO (to ~0.3 mln shares from ~0.1 mln shares), NTRA (to ~0.5 mln from ~0.3 mln), OMER (to ~0.7 mln from ~0.3 mln), VTAE (to ~0.6 mln from ~0.2 mln), QURE (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.03 mln), BLUE (to ~0.4 mln from ~0.1 mln)

Decreased positions in: MDVN (to ~0.3 mln shares from ~0.7 mln shares), DSCO (to ~0.3 mln from ~3.6 mln) Closed positions in: GILD (from ~0.2 mln shares), FLXN (from ~0.1 mln), OHRP (from ~0.4 mln), MRNS (from ~0.2 mln)

ValueAct discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New ADS Stake, Liquidated HAL stake : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: ADS (~0.5 mln shares)

Decreased positions in: ADBE (to ~6k shares from ~14 mln shares), AGU (to ~3.2 mln from ~10 mln), MSI (to ~8.2 mln from ~17.6 mln), MSCI (to ~4.1 mln from ~6.3 mln)

Closed positions in: HAL (from ~16.5 mln shares)

PointState discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Initiates new positions in COG, SWN, & MDVN; increases positions in LYB, CPN, & ABBV; & closes positions in BAC, CFG, & LUV : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: COG (~1.2 mln shares), SWN (~3.2 mln), MDVN (~2.1 mln), CELG (~1.6 mln), ECA (~1.5 mln)

Increased positions in: LYB (to ~4.3 mln shares from ~1.2 mln shares), CPN (to ~2.2 mln from ~0.2 mln), ABBV (to ~2.3 mln from ~0.3 mln), MSFT (to ~3 mln from ~1.4 mln), CHTR (to ~1.5 mln from ~0.1 mln)

Decreased positions in: LNG (to ~5.8 mln shares from ~12.9 mln shares), AYA (to ~7.4 mln from ~11 mln), MDCO (to ~0.3 mln from ~1 mln), TWC (to ~0.1 mln from ~0.8 mln), NOC (to ~0.4 mln from ~0.7 mln)

Closed positions in: BAC (from ~6.5 mln shares), CFG (from ~2.8 mln), LUV (from ~2.7 mln), YPF (from ~1.4 mln), CHK (from ~1.2 mln)

Fairholme discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

Increased positions in: BAC (to ~8.6 mln shares from ~3.9 mln shares)

Decreased positions in: LUK (to ~0.1 mln shares from ~4.5 mln shares)

Closed positions in: MRC (from ~5.6 mln shares), IBM (from ~48k), CNQ (from ~1.1 mln), AIG (from ~0.3 mln; still has ~10.68 mln warrants)

Paulson discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new position in ATVI, BEAV, ODP; closed position in ABBV : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: ATVI (~3.1 mln shares), ACAS (~4 mln), ALXN (~0.2 mln), BEAV (~3 mln), BXLT (~0.1 mln), ODP (~7.8 mln)

Increased positions in: AKRX (to ~9.3 mln shares from ~2.9 mln shares), ENDP (to ~9.5 mln from ~3.3 mln), DVAX (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.1 mln), DWRE (to ~0.3 mln from ~0.1 mln), ETSY (to ~1.5 mln from ~0.4 mln), PFE (to ~1.4 mln from ~0.6 mln)

Decreased positions in: AU (to ~15.2 mln shares from ~22.9 mln shares), HOT (to ~5.5 mln from ~11.6 mln), TWC (to ~1.8 mln from ~5.9 mln)

Closed positions in: ABBV (from ~0.1 mln shares), GMED (from ~0.1 mln), OUT (from ~4.3 mln), PMC (from ~0.5 mln)

Eminence Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new positions in ANTM, HUM; Closes positions in PYPL, HOT, YELP : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: ANTM (~0.4 mln shares), ARRS (~8 mln), CFG (~2.1 mln), FCE.A (~6 mln), LEN (~3 mln), TLRD (~6.1 mln), ZBRA (~1.3 mln),

Increased positions in: AN (to ~3.6 mln shares from ~1.6 mln shares), BERY (to ~1.3 mln from ~0.5 mln), CAA (to ~5.9 mln from ~2.3 mln), LNKD (to ~1.2 mln from ~0.4 mln), P (to ~14.3 mln from ~10.7 mln)

Decreased positions in: SJM (to ~0.2 mln shares from ~1 mln shares), TSU (to ~0.3 mln from ~2 mln), TRIP (to ~0.3 mln from ~2.7 mln)

Closed positions in: ATVI (from ~3.2 mln shares), GOOG (from ~0.2 mln), AXTA (from ~1.9 mln), EBAY (from ~3.3 mln), GMCR (from ~6.9 mln), PYPL (from ~1.8 mln), SONC (from ~3.2 mln), HOT (from ~2.3 mln), YELP (from ~3.6 mln)

Kynikos Associates discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new position in CG; closed position in QLIK : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: CG (~0.3 mln shares), HES (~0.1 mln), JNJ (29,730), KKR (~0.3 mln)

Closed positions in: DPS (from ~0.1 mln shares), FTNT (from ~0.2 mln), HRS (from ~0.1 mln), QLIK (from ~0.2 mln)

Elliott Management discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new position in BXLT, HLF, PFE; closed position in HPE, UA : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: EGN (~0.2 mln shares), HLF (45,802) QLIK (~4.6 mln), PFE (~3.9 mln)

Increased positions in: BXLT (to ~2.5 mln shares from ~0.6 mln shares), CAB (to ~6 mln from ~4.2 mln), CNP (to ~13.6 mln from ~8.9 mln), SYMC (to ~11.5 mln from ~5 mln)

Decreased positions in: CCL (to ~0.1 mln shares from ~0.2 mln shares), GPOR (to ~0.1 mln from ~0.3 mln), ODP (to ~2.5 mln from ~13.2 mln), PRGO (to ~0 mln from ~0.2 mln)

Closed positions in: HPE (from ~6.7 mln shares), SHPG (from ~0.1 mln), SM (from ~0.5 mln), STE (from ~0.4 mln), UA (from ~0.1 mln), VMW (from ~2.1 mln)

Viking Global discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New TMUS, PGR, FB, MET; Closed HAL, MCK, NKE, VRX : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: BRCM (~9.8 mln shares), TMUS (~2.7 mln), PGR (~1.6 mln), NWL (~4.7 mln), MET (~2.6 mln), FB (~20.1 mln)

Increased positions in: COG (to ~36.4 mln shares from ~13.4 mln shares), GPOR (to ~11..4 mln from ~0.7 mln), ECA (to ~80.6 mln from ~4 mln), RRC (to ~8.9 mln from ~1.6 mln), TEVA (to ~33 mln from ~25 mln)

Decreased positions in: LNG (to ~1.5 mln shares from ~15.9 mln shares), PFE (to ~1.1 mln from ~7.4 mln), PXD (to ~2.6 mln from ~9.4 mln), WBA (to ~6.3 mln from ~12.8 mln)

Closed positions in: HAL (from ~6.7 mln shares), MCK (from ~2.8 mln), NKE (from ~5.3 mln), QUNR (from ~8.5 mln), TXT (from ~5.8 mln), VRX (from ~7.8 mln)

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: CYH (~1.1 mln shares), GSAT (~11.3 mln), HTS (~6.3 mln), LAMR (~0.1 mln)

Increased positions in: AGNC (to ~4.8 mln shares from ~1.6 mln shares), AAPL (to ~8.2 mln from ~6.3 mln), BAX (to ~1.2 mln from ~0.5 mln), CC (to ~8.8 mln from ~3.4 mln), YHOO (to ~4.4 mln from ~2 mln), YELP (to ~3.2 mln from ~0.4 mln)

Decreased positions in: AGR (to ~3.5 mln shares from ~5.3 mln shares), IAC (to ~1.2 mln from ~2.5 mln)

Closed positions in: CBI (from ~3.5 mln shares), ON (from ~3.1 mln), OI (from ~4.7 mln), SGMS (from ~1.5 mln), SEMI (from ~0.5 mln), GRMN (from ~0.8 mln)

Carl Icahn discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing (Most already known): Closes out AAPL, Trims NUAN : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: MFS (~10.6 mln shares) (Acquired through prior stake in MTW following spinoff)

Decreased positions in: NUAN (to ~30.1 mln shares from ~60.8 mln shares)

Closed positions in: AAPL (from ~45.8 mln shares), GCI (from ~6.5 mln), HOLX (from ~28.2 mln), MENT (from ~16.1 mln), TGNA (from ~12.8 mln)

Corvex Management discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Added GLPI, VRX, TMH; CLosed AN, BAC, CFG, CMA, and KMI : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: GLPI (~0.1 mln shares), NOMHF (~15.3 mln), VRX (~2 mln), TMH (~1.5 mln)

Increased positions in: PAH (to ~14.4 mln shares from ~2 mln shares), PFE (to ~17.5 mln from ~12.4 mln), P (to ~9.9 mln from ~4.8 mln), (to ~1.5 mln from ~0 mln)

Decreased positions in: VER (to ~44 mln shares from ~79.9 mln shares), GOOG (to ~0.4 mln from ~0.8 mln), AGN (to ~0.1 mln from ~0.7 mln)

Closed positions in: AN (from ~1.6 mln shares), BAC (from ~9.4 mln), CFG (from ~1.7 mln), CMA (from ~1.7 mln), KMI (from ~2.3 mln)

Maverick Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Added CMCSA, LRCX, PCRX, USB; Closed ORI, SC, NRF : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: CMCSA (~1.7 mln shares), LRCX (~3 mln), PCRX (~1.6 mln), USB (~1 mln), IPG (~0.1 mln), BRCM (~0.9 mln)

Increased positions in: ADBE (to ~4.4 mln shares from ~3 mln shares), AGN (to ~1.4 mln from ~0.7 mln), BUD (to ~1.2 mln from ~0.9 mln), FB (to ~1.6 mln from ~0 mln) #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Closed positions in: ORI (from ~7 mln shares), SC (from ~14.1 mln), CHTR (from ~1 mln), FLT (from ~1.4 mln), JAH (from ~1.8 mln), NRF (from ~3..7 mln)

Hound Partners discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New positions in GME, SERV; closed position in GRA, TWC; increased position in BIDU; decreased position in WTW : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: GME (~0.2 mln shares), GCP (~1 mln), BLOX (~1.9 mln), SERV (~3.8 mln), VWR (~0.1 mln), GLPI (10,000)

Increased positions in: BIDU (to ~2 mln shares from ~1.1 mln shares), CHTR (to ~0.6 mln from ~0.4 mln), TSO (to ~4.2 mln from ~3.1 mln)

Decreased positions in: CRI (to ~2.2 mln shares from ~3.9 mln shares), WTW (to ~0.6 mln from ~1.2 mln)

Closed positions in: GRA (from ~0.9 mln shares), HCA (from ~0.7 mln), TWC (from ~0.2 mln)

Eton Park discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New positions in BXLT and SPLS; Closed positions in AER, ADSK, RAD : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: BXLT (~11.9 mln shares), CDK (~2.3 mln), SPLS (~0.9 mln), GLPI (~0.1 mln), SYT (~0.1 mln), HOT (34,322)

Increased positions in: AGN (to ~1.9 mln shares from ~0.9 mln shares), TWC (to ~3.5 mln from ~1.5 mln)

Decreased positions in: ADBE (to ~1.4 mln shares from ~2.2 mln shares), MSFT (to ~2.5 mln from ~8.5 mln), ODP (to ~2.3 mln from ~3.7 mln)

Closed positions in: AER (from ~2.2 mln shares), ARG (from ~0.4 mln), ADSK (from ~2.4 mln), HUM (from ~0.4 mln), PRGO (from ~0.8 mln), RAD (from ~8.2 mln)

Tiger Global discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New stake in ZG; Boosted stake in EHIC; Trimmed Stake in AAPL; Liquidated stake in VIPS, ATHM : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: ZG (~1 mln shares)

Increased positions in: CHTR (to ~2 mln shares from ~0.7 mln shares), EHIC (to ~8.3 mln from ~4.7 mln)

Decreased positions in: AMZN (to ~1 mln shares from ~3.2 mln shares), AAPL (to ~5.7 mln from ~10.6 mln)

Closed positions in: BUD (from ~1.9 mln shares), ATHM (from ~5 mln), PPC (from ~2 mln), RH (from ~3.2 mln), SPLK (from ~2.1 mln), VIPS (from ~49.5 mln)

Coatue Management discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New stake in HTZ, PYPL; Boosted stake in LCI; Trimmed stake in GPRO, HAIN; Liquidated stake in VRX, AAPL : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: CAR (~1.8 mln shares), PYPL (~4.3 mln), HTZ (~5.2 mln), SDRL (~2.2 mln), SPLK (~2.2 mln), SQ (~1.2 mln)

Increased positions in: AKAM (to ~3 mln shares from ~2.2 mln shares), AMBA (to ~1.3 mln from ~0.9 mln), FEYE (to ~1 mln from ~0.7 mln), LCI (to ~1.8 mln from ~0.1 mln), W (to ~1.1 mln from ~0.7 mln)

Decreased positions in: DDD (to ~1.1 mln shares from ~2.9 mln shares), GPRO (to ~15k from ~2.6 mln), HAIN (to ~1 mln from ~4 mln), SSYS (to ~0.4 mln from ~2 mln)

Closed positions in: AAPL (from ~6.8 mln shares), CBS (from ~3.9 mln), FCX (from ~2.3 mln), TWX (from ~3.1 mln), VRX (from ~1.7 mln), SIRI (from ~10.9 mln)

Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: AAPL (~0.2 mln shares), BLL (~0.6 mln), ETP (~1.4 mln), PYPL (~1.3 mln), WPZ (~1.2 mln)

Increased positions in: MSFT (to ~1.8 mln shares from ~0.8 mln shares), SYF (to ~2.1 mln from ~0.9 mln), TRGP (to ~2.7 mln from ~1.3 mln)

Decreased positions in: DISH (to ~1.1 mln shares from ~1.8 mln shares), FB (to ~0.5 mln from ~1 mln), GPOR (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.6 mln), NAO (to ~1.6 mln from ~3.7 mln), SIRI (to ~21.1 mln from ~32.2 mln)

Closed positions in: ATLS (from ~3.9 mln shares), GLBL (from ~6 mln), JPM (from ~1.1 mln), PFE (from ~1.3 mln), RIGP (from ~1.1 mln), C (from ~3 mln)

Blue Ridge Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: CHK (~7.1 mln shares), COMM (~3.8 mln), CNX (~3.4 mln), ECA (~4.3 mln), OAS (~4.6 mln), SWN (~8.2 mln)

Increased positions in: AMBA (to ~1 mln shares from ~0.4 mln shares), CP (to ~1.5 mln from ~1.2 mln)

Decreased positions in: ALLE (to ~2.3 mln shares from ~3.4 mln shares), BMRN (to ~1 mln from ~1.5 mln), PBF (to ~1.1 mln from ~2.4 mln), PCLN (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.3 mln)

Closed positions in: ENDP (from ~2.1 mln shares), ETFC (from ~4.4 mln), LC (from ~0.8 mln), MPC (from ~3.5 mln), MTG (from ~2.9 mln), SIRI (from ~30.7 mln)

Jana Partners discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New stake in TMH, SRCL; Boosted stake in PFE; Trimmed stake in LGF; Liquidated stake in VRX, QCOM, AIG : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: TMH (~5.9 mln shares), SRCL (~2.4 mln), HDS (~2.9 mln), GOOG (~0.6 mln)

Increased positions in: PFE (to ~13.5 mln shares from ~9.2 mln shares)

Decreased positions in: AGN (to ~0.4 mln shares from ~1.2 mln shares), LGF (to ~1.5 mln from ~8.5 mln)

Closed positions in: WMB (from ~3.8 mln shares), VRX (from ~1.6 mln), TWX (from ~2.7 mln), STRZA (from ~5.4 mln), QCOM (from ~9.2 mln), LBTYA (from ~5.9 mln) BAX (from ~5.7 mln) AIG (from ~4.3 mln)

Joho Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: CSTE (~0.7 mln shares), ETSY (~0.3 mln)

Increased positions in: BABA (to ~1 mln shares from ~0.7 mln shares), LABL (to ~0.6 mln from ~0.3 mln)

Decreased positions in: XRS (to ~0.4 mln shares from ~0.9 mln shares)

Closed positions in: YRD (from ~0.7 mln shares), GLW (from ~0.2 mln)

Berkshire Hathaway discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New AAPL stake, closes T Stake, slashes PG stake : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: AAPL (~9.8 mln shares)

Decreased positions in: PG (to ~0.3 mln shares from ~52.8 mln shares)

Closed positions in: T (from ~46.6 mln shares)

Brahman Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Closes VRX, ENDP stake; Adds to TWC; New position in TWX, FDC : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: TWX (~2.2 mln shares), FDC (~5.2 mln), HLT (~2.4 mln), MRKT (~0.3 mln)

Increased positions in: TWC (to ~2.7 mln shares from ~1.9 mln shares)

Closed positions in: VRX (from ~8.1 mln shares), ENDP (from ~3.9 mln)

Starboard Value discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Boosts stake in YHOO; Cuts stake in DRI, FCPT; Closes stake in NYRT, ODP : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: DEPO(Prev. known) (~3 mln shares), MRVL (Prev. known) (~20.4 mln), NXST (~0.3 mln)

Increased positions in: YHOO (to ~12.3 mln shares from ~7.1 mln shares)

Decreased positions in: DRI (to ~6.6 mln shares from ~11.6 mln shares), FCPT (to ~2.5 mln from ~3.9 mln)

Closed positions in: NYRT (from ~1.4 mln), ODP (from ~4.5 mln)

Baupost Group discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing; new positions in VMW and GNW; closed positions in KOS : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: AGN (~1.7 mln shares), GNW (~1.7 mln), LQ (~1.1 mln), VMW (~2.3 mln), INVA (~19.8 mln)

Increased positions in: OLN (to ~10.7 mln from ~7 mln), FOXA (to ~15 mln from ~10.6 mln), OREX (to ~22.3 mln from ~2.3 mln), EMC (to ~51.9 mln from ~29.2 mln)

Decreased positions in: PYPL (to ~7.1 mln shares from ~11.1 mln shares), BXE (to ~8.7 mln from ~24 mln)

Closed positions in: KOS (from ~4.6 mln shares), OCN (from ~5.2 mln), SN (from ~2 mln), MU (from ~1 mln)

John Khoury's Long Pond Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing with new H position (recently discussed at Sohn) : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: CAA (~1.8 mln shares), CBG (~3 mln), H (~6.6 mln - was out positive at Sohn conf recently), LQ (~4.4 mln), SFR (3.3 mln)

Increased positions in: CLNY (to ~9.3 mln shares from ~6.6 mln shares), KEY (to ~5.2 mln from ~1.9 mln)

Closed positions in: ARPI (from ~2.7 mln shares), LHO (from ~3 mln), PMT (from ~2.2 mln), ARPI (~2.7 mln)

Third Point discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New positions in GOOGL, BXLT, ICE; closed position in MS, EBAY, CWEI : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: GOOGL (~0.7 mln shares), BXLT (~6 mln), ICE (~0.2 mln), LOW (~3 mln), VMW (~1.2 mln), TDG (~1 mln)

Increased positions in: DHR (to ~3.7 mln shares from ~2.3 mln shares), KHC (to ~0.5 mln from ~0.1 mln)

Decreased positions in: AMGN (to ~3 mln shares from ~9 mln shares), SJM (to ~0.8 mln from ~1.7 mln)

Closed positions in: LBTY.A (from ~5 mln shares), MS (from ~3 mln), CWEI (from ~0.4 mln), AXTA (from ~2.4 mln), EBAY (from ~3 mln)

Appaloosa discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New stake in VRX, BAC; Boosted stake in CYH, ETP, WPZ; Trimmed stake in GM, KMI; Closed stake in AAPL, FCX : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: FOXA (~3.9 mln shares), SYF (~5 mln), GLBL(Prev. know) (~3.7 mln), HAIN (~1.4 mln), FB (~1.6 mln), BAC (~7 mln), VRX ( ~0.9 mln)

Increased positions in: CYH (to ~7.2 mln shares from ~1 mln shares), ETP (to ~16.2 mln from ~5.1 mln), NXPI (to ~1.4 mln from ~0.8 mln), WPZ (to ~13.2 mln from ~2.4 mln), TGI (to ~1.2 mln from ~0.9 mln)

Decreased positions in: GM (to ~2.8 mln shares from ~13 mln shares), GT (to ~1 mln from ~2.1 mln), HCA (to ~3.2 mln from ~4.5 mln), KMI (to ~5.5 mln from ~10.9 mln), TOO (to ~0.3 mln from ~1 mln)

Closed positions in: AAPL (from ~1.3 mln shares), CBI (from ~1.4 mln), FCX (from ~3.6 mln), MYL (from ~0.9 mln), UAL (from ~0.6 mln)

Kerrisdale Advisers discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new positions in BRO / BLOX, closed out SAIA : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: BRO (~0.9 mln shares), EBAY (~0.9 mln), MENT (~0.8 mln), BLOX (~0.4 mln), PYPL (~0.3 mln), SPLS (~0.9 mln), SAGE (~204K)

Increased positions in: CTSH (to ~0.5 mln shares from ~0.3 mln shares), ETSY (to ~1.3 mln from ~0.5 mln), LXFT (to ~0.5 mln from ~0.2 mln), YELP (to ~0.9 mln from ~0.3 mln)

Closed positions in: DANG (from ~0.2 mln shares), KFY (from ~0.4 mln), RUSHA (from ~0.2 mln), SAIA (from ~0.4 mln), BID (from ~0.5 mln)

Bridgewater Associates discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: new DISH and DIS positions, closed out FOSL and decreased positions in URBN, M, VZ, CTL : Highlights from 2016 Q1 filing as compared to 2015 Q4 filing:

New positions in: DISH (~0.3 mln shares), DIS (~0.2 mln), LNC (~0.2 mln), MDLZ (~0.2 mln), POT (~0.7 mln), WFM (~0.1 mln)

Increased positions in: ESV (to ~1.9 mln shares from ~1.1 mln shares) DRI (to ~0.1 mln from ~0 mln) INTC (to ~1 mln from ~0.3 mln)

Decreased positions in: HST (to ~0.1 mln shares from ~0.6 mln shares), KGC (to ~1 mln from ~1.5 mln), EXC (to ~0 mln from ~0.8 mln), KSS (to ~0.1 mln from ~0.3 mln), WU (to ~0.4 mln from ~0.8 mln), URBN (to ~0.1 mln shares from ~0.7 mln shares), VZ (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.4 mln), NLY (to ~0.1 mln from ~0.3 mln), M (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.8 mln), CTL (to ~0.3 mln from ~0.8 mln)

Closed positions in: VIAB (from ~0.7 mln shares), FOSL (from ~0.5 mln), SWN (from ~0.3 mln), DNR (from ~5 mln), BCE (from ~0.8 mln)

#$SWN #$FOSL #$VZ #$ETSY #$YELP #$GPRN #$P #$HLF #$AMZN #$GOOG #$GOOGL #$AAPL #$NFLX #$FB #$INTC #$VRX #$SPY #$^gspc #$EBAY #$PYPL #$DISH #$HCA #$QPZ #$DANG #$SLPS #$ODP #$GRPO #$GRPN #$TWTR #$NQ

5 Stocks to Watch this Week 5/9 - DIS, EA, FOSL, SHAK, JWN

Tuesday, May 10

Thursday, May 12

Disney (DIS)

Consumer Discretionary - Media | Reports May 10, after the close.

The Estimize community calls for EPS of $1.46, six cents higher than Wall Street, while revenue estimates of $13.4B just above the sell-side’s $13.25B. The Estimize community has been slightly bullish on Disney’s profitability, moving EPS estimates up 4% since the FQ1 report, now expecting YoY growth of 18%. Revenue estimates have only been ratcheted up 1%, and are expected to grow 8% from the year-ago period. On average DIS has beaten on EPS 65% of the time, but only 47% on sales.

What to Watch:

Studio Entertainment: Disney is coming off a strong Q1 primarily driven by the success of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The global success of the movie drove revenue growth at both Studio Entertainment and Consumer products which increased 86% and 23%, respectively. This quarter should continue to get a nice bump as the blockbuster was still going strong well into the beginning of 2016, plus the box office success of animated film, Zootopia, which currently stands as the top grossing movie of 2016, nearing $1 billion in ticket sales as of early May. Meanwhile, the newest Captain America movie released last Friday drew in $180 million in ticket sales for its opening weekend, a benefit that won’t be seen until next quarter.

Parks & Resorts: Lately parks and resorts have performed just as well as Disney’s studio entertainment. This sector saw revenue increased 9% and operating income climb 21% for Q1 2016. Higher operating income at domestic locations was due to higher average ticket prices and attendance growth. This more than offset the increases in labor costs and new guest offerings incurred in the quarter. With a Star Wars themed attraction set to launch soon, parks and resorts should continue to see stable growth.

Media Networks: Media networks, on the other hand, have been a sour spot for Disney lately. As cord cutting habits run rampant and programming costs continue to increase, cables networks suffer. Last quarter, Disney saw operating income fall 5% in this segment, due to a substantial decline from ESPN.

Electronic Arts (EA)

Information Technology - Software | Reports May 10, after the close.

The Estimize community calls for EPS of $0.46, four cents above Wall Street. Revenue expectations from Estimize are also higher at $893M as compared to the Street’s $886M. Estimates have remained relatively flat over the last 3 months, with EPS expected to grow 18%, and sales anticipated to remain in-line with year-ago results. EA tends to be a big mover after earnings, with the stock increasing 5% on average in the 30-day post report period. The company has a decent history of beating, surpassing the Estimize EPS consensus in 78% of reported quarters, and revenues 56% of the time.

What to Watch: Just like Disney, EA received a huge boost last quarter thanks to the success of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Sales of Electronic Arts’ Star Wars based game, Battlefront, has already well surpassed the 13 million benchmark established for March.

Apart from Star Wars, EA has been seen success across many of its other hits. Last year, Madden 2016 was the #1 sports title in the U.S. while FIFA topped that same list in Europe. Meanwhile the return of Need for Speed drew twice as many active players as the previous game. Players also logged more than 150 hours of gameplay from its first person shooting games, Battlefield.

Besides console and PC games, EA is emerging as a major player in the rapidly growing mobile gaming sector. It’s Madden football games are consistently in the top 5 most downloaded games on the Apple Store. Last quarter featured nearly 50% year over year growth in active players for Madden NFL Mobile. Mobile gaming continues to be the fastest growing sector in the gaming industry and could prove beneficial for EA down the road.

Fossil (FOSL)

Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Reports May 10, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.20, two cents above Wall Street and seven above company guidance. Revenue expectations are just slightly more bearish at $667.75M vs the sell-side’s $667.8M, but both are higher than guidance of $663.5M. These numbers have been trending downward since the last quarterly report, with Estimize EPS estimates falling 37% and revenues down 3%. This puts growth expectations at -75% for EPS and -8% for sales. This is a company that has historically beaten on the bottom-line in 65% of reported quarters, and on sales in 47% of reported quarters.

What to Watch: Fossil is best known for making watches not only under its own brand name but also for Michael Kors, Kate Spade and other high fashion brands. The company is coming off a better than expected fourth quarter which saw a 12 cent beat on the bottom line and $70 million on the top. Despite the beat, the last two quarters have come with negative growth for both earnings and sales, as the company is in the midst of a brand transformation. The stock has followed suit, losing over 50% of its value in the last 12 months.

Lately, Fossil is seeing encouraging trends through its core brands, Fossil and Skagen, aided by strong ecommerce growth, rising direct to consumer sales, and modest comp store sales. Growth from these brands last quarter were largely offset by declines in the company’s multi-brand licensed watch portfolio and weak currency conditions. At the beginning of the year Fossil announced it would let it’s watch license with Burberry expire in December 2017, a move that some analysts believe could cost the company between $100-200 million a year.

As smartwatches rise in popularity, Fossil is taking steps to continually innovate its product offerings. Last December the company purchased wearables technology provider, Misfit, in what looks to be a move towards a Fossil fitness tracker. Meanwhile, Fossil already develops and sells smartwatches with the android operating system.

Shake Shack (SHAK)

Consumer Discretionary - Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Reports May 12, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.07, one penny above Wall Street. Revenue expectations of $52.7M are just slightly higher than the Street’s $52.5M. Estimates have remained largely unchanged since the Q4 2015 report, with YoY growth expected to come in at 86% on the bottom-line, and 41% on the top-line. This is a stock that tends to have huge price swings around the earnings season. In the 5 quarters since its IPO, shares increase an average of 19% in the 30-day pre-earnings period, only to fall 8% in the 30-day post-earnings period. SHAK historically has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 80% of the time.

What to Watch: Not only is this a company that tends to beat, but they beat by a lot! In the last 4 quarters, SHAK has posted an average EPS surprise of 162%, and YoY growth of 200 - 900%. Revenue growth was also impressive in 2015, increasing 47%+ each quarter. Arguably the more important metric for this company is same shack sales, which increased 11% in Q4, and 13.3% in 2015. The outlook for 2016 isn’t as impressive, with the company guiding for same shack sales of 2.5 - 3.0%. First quarter 2016 expectations look less rosy due to increased labor costs and beef prices.

Despite changing consumer preferences for organic and fresh meal options, which has helped boost so many fast casual names such as Shake Shake, the need for value in some cases has shifted the focus back to fast food joints which are attempting to offer healthier options as well. However, SHAK has a very loyal customer; quarterly traffic increases are driven by limited time offers and constant menu innovations.

Shake Shack continues with it’s aggressive expansion plan, with 13 domestic stores set to open this year, and 7 licensed Shacks scheduled to open in the U.K. Middle East and Japan.

Nordstrom (JWN)

Consumer Discretionary - Multiline Retail | Reports May 12, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.45, in-line with Wall Street. Revenue expectations of $3.289M are just slightly below the Street’s $3.293M. Numbers on the bottom-line have been ratcheted down 22% in just the last 3 months, with top-line numbers only being reduced 2%. This puts growth expectations at -27% for EPS and 3% for sales. Nordstrom has a terrible track record for beating, only surpassing the Estimize EPS consensus 53% of the time and revenues 20% of the time.

What to watch: The outlook for all department stores is rather bleak for Q1 with Macy’s, Kohl’s and Nordstrom all expecting YoY profit declines, with only J.C. Penney anticipated to post growth this week. After a terrible fourth quarter, missing by 5 cents on EPS and $77M on the top line, Nordstrom’s management team issued lower-than-expected guidance for 2016, expecting earnings to decline 30% in first half of the year due to a heavy investment cycle and the shift of its anniversary sale.

Of the department stores, Nordstrom is considered higher-end, a hard spot to sit as the US consumer becomes more value-focused and less willing to spend on apparel. However, same store sales remained strong during the first half of 2015, coming in at 4.4% and 4.9% in Q1 and Q2, dipping down to 0.9% and 2.7% in the last two quarters of the year. Expectations for 2016 are light, with the company expecting comparable store sales of 0 - 2%. A large part of the company’s success during the first half of the year was attributed to Nordstrom Rack, Nordstrom’s discount store. That segment has continually seen sales grow in the double-digits, but lately weakness in the full-price locations have offset that strength.

Be sure to get your estimates in for these names here!

(Photo Credit: gtsviper96)

#$SPY #$^GSPC #$DIS #$EA #$FOSL #$SHAK #$JWN