#$vra

[estimize]

Four Fashion Brands to Watch for This Week

Michael Kors (Reports on Wednesday, May 31st)

The Estimize community is optimistic about KORS’s Q4’s earnings. Analysts are calling for $0.73 EPS, three cents ahead of the Wall Street estimate, and a revenue of $1.055 billion, 7 million ahead of Wall Street. Michael Kors has marked one of the most financially successful luxurious designer fashion brands. Incorporating more innovative technology into its design, Kors has introduced MICHAEL KORS ACCESS, which is a series of smartwatches and relating smartphone applications. In addition, KORS has named Thomas J. Edwards, Jr as its new Chief Financial Officer, in succession of Joseph B. Parsons.

What are you expecting for KORS? Put in your estimate here!

Vera Bradley (Reports on Wednesday, May 31st)

Eight analysts at Estimize have reached a consensus of $-0.11 for Vera Bradley’s Q1 EPS, 2 cents ahead of Wall Street, also an revenue estimate 97.26 million, which is approximately in line with Wall Street. One of the most recent news from Vera Bradley is that it has entered into a licensing agreement with CID Resources Inc. for apparel and coordinating accessories designed  specifically for the expanding population of female health care professionals.

What are you expecting for VRA? Put in your estimate here!

Lululemon (Reports on Thursday, June 1st)

On Thursday, Lululemon will reports its Q1 results. Analysts at Estimize have reached a consensus of $0.29 EPS, right in line with the Wall Street consensus, and a revenue of $514 million, which is 2 million ahead of the Wall Street consensus. One of its recent updates is that Glenn Murphy has been appointed to the company’s Board of Directors as Co-Chairman.  

What are you expecting for LULU? Put in your estimate here!

Express (Reports on Thursday, June 1st)

Express is expected to report its FQ1 earnings on June 1st. Eight analysts at Estimize are calling for an EPS of $-0.04, two cents ahead of Wall Street consensus. The Estimize consensus for revenue is $468.55 million, which is approximately 1 million below the Wall Street estimate. On May 4th, Express announces an additional measure as part of its continued strategic approach to improving profitability and managing and optimizing store footprint. Due to the hostile market conditions in Canada, Express intends to close all 17 Canadians stores and discontinue its Canadian operations.  

What are you expecting for EXPR? Put in your estimate here!

[estimize]

Is it Time to Short this Luxury Retailer?

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (KORS) Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Reports June 1, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings of 97 cents per share on $1.15 billion in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top

Weakness in the retail space has taken its toll on luxury brands with Michael Kors next

Nordstrom’s decision to no longer carry Kors handbags should have an immediate impact on earnings

What are you expecting for KORS? Get your estimate in here!

Weak consumer spending has hurt retail earnings this quarter. Upscale brands have fared badly as consumers opt for discount goods and services. This season we have already seen losses from luxury retailers including Nordstrom and Tiffany’s, setting the stage for weakness from Michael Kors, Vera Bradley, and Lululemon over the next week. Tomorrow, Michael Kors kicks things off for the remaining retailers with its fiscal fourth quarter earnings.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings of 97 cents per share on $1.15 billion in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top. Compared to a year earlier this represents a 9% increase in earnings with sales expected to grow by 11%. Given its recent string of strong growth, the stock is typically a positive mover during earnings season. Through shares, on average, increase 4% through earnings and continue to make gains in the month following its report. In an effort to drive top line growth, Michael Kors has focused on opening new stores. Last quarter the company opened 34 new stores, comprising of 15 in the United States and the rest in international markets. While the new stores will increase operating costs and contract margins, they should help generate higher revenue in the near term. Global stores should continue to see adverse impacts from weak currency conditions. Regardless, Michael Kors continues to deliver positive growth in key financial metrics including revenue, net sales, profit and net income.

Unfortunately, the biggest news from the company was a decision from Nordstrom to no longer carry Michael Kors handbags. Nordstrom had been feeling squeezed by Macy’s to price match and discount similar Kors bags. The ongoing promotions Macy’s ran was a major determinant for Nordstroms to stop carrying the bags. This clearly isn’t a good thing for Michael Kors, which should expect to feel the aftermath in the remainder of the year. Do you think KORS can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Photo Credit: Didier P.

[najarianbros]

What We're Trading

VRA - Vera Bradley hits fresh 52-week lows, down nearly 12%, after missing EPS on weaker rev and lowered guidance. You got it, the trifecta of crap my friends.

BWS - Brown Shoe beat EPS forecasts by 4 cents, but did so on weaker revenues & lowered guidance, shares falling 3% here.

EXPR - The fashion retailer beat EPS forecasts by 3 cents on stronger revenues & guided to high end of range, shares trading up over 6% on the OptionsHouse extended hours platform.

HABT - The fast casual restaurant chain beat EPS forecasts on stronger revenues & raised guidance, but shares slide 7% in the pre on weak SSS guidance.

NATH - Nathan's Famous (parent of Arthur Treacher’s) announced special one-time dividend of $25 per share, shares higher by 4% in the pre.

PAY - VeriFone up 2.5% in the pre after an EPS beat on inline revenues.

SNDK - Gains 3% on an addition to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.

[estimize]

Why Quant. Funds Expect Vera Bradley to Drift Higher after the Market Opens

Vera Bradley (VRA) just posted huge FQ3’14 earnings after the close. Vera Bradley, an American producer of handbags, luggage, and accessories released their quarterly earnings Wednesday after the market closed beating Wall Street expectations on earnings per share and revenues. Despite strong results this quarter, Vera Bradley decreased their outlook for the next financial period due to a challenging retail sales environment. While these earnings numbers crushed the Wall Street consensus how do they compare to Buy Side and Independent analysts’ expectations and what does that mean we can expect from the stock over the next few days?

The following information is derived from data submitted to the Estimize platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors. You can view their estimates and share your own by visiting www.estimize.com.

Going into the report Wall Street analysts were expecting 34c EPS and $129.38M revenue while the consensus from Estimize was 36c EPS and $130.14M revenue. After the close on Wednesday VRA reported a huge 37c EPS and $130.10M revenue beating both expectations on earnings per share.

The Estimize consensus is more accurate than Wall Street 69.5% of the time because it represents unbiased market expectations. By tapping into a wider distribution of contributors including hedge fund analysts, asset management firm analysts, industry experts, and students Estimize is better able to capture the true market outlook. For VRA’s FQQ3’14 report on Wednesday Estimize was more accurate on both EPS and revenue.

The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market.

The day leading into the report the market may have baked in the decreasing analyst sentiment as evidenced by the Estimize consensus’ downward EPS and revenue consensus revisions. On Wednesday the price of shares fell 3.07% prior to the report.

So what can we expect from VRA over the next few days? Based on our quantitative research we have found that if you benchmark against the market on average when a firm beats the Estimize consensus for EPS the stock price tends to drift upward over the next 3 trading days once the market reopens. For more information about strategies quant. funds are using to leverage the Estimize data set to generate alpha and to learn more about our statistical research check out our whitepaper at estimize.com/api .

Get access to estimates for Vera Bradley published by your Buy Side and Independent analyst peers, and register to create your own estimates by heading over to Estimize now.