So, I’ve been thinking and: I’m fairly sure TPTB fired TG at the very last minute, because no one else at CM seemed to be aware of it.
1) One of those spoiler sites (TVline, I think) has an article about what will happen to Hotch after the whole TG thing, but really it’s just speculation. But! It’s speculation based on a conversation they had with Messer after the news about his suspension came out (it just wasn’t published until he’d already been fired). That’s when she talked about how he’ll be on assignment and it’ll pay off big later. The article then rightly questions if it still will. So, at that point, did Messer not know TG wasn’t coming back? That would mean the decision was made in the 24hrs after the news of his suspension breaking. That seems rushed. But she could have still been hoping, or maybe she wasn’t allowed to tell yet or maybe it will still pay off big but without Hotch.
2) A day or two before this mess got out, MGG shared that pic of them shooting the opening sequence with the caption ‘we’re back!’. Somehow I doubt he’d have so readily done that if he’d known it was barely going to be used, if at all. Especially considering the reason why. And he knew about the suspension, because that had obviously been going on already, so it’s just the definite dismissal he wouldn’t have known about. For that matter, why even shoot that credit sequence at all, if they’d already known?
3) Then there are TG’s statements. The one about his suspension mentions that he hopes they can ‘still work together as a team’, or something like that. If he (or his agent/manager/whoever) had had any idea he’d be fired the next day, would that have been in there?
So yeah, the evidence might be circumstantial, but I think we can assume this was a last minute decision. Which I get, because it must have been a difficult one, but on the other hand I can’t take that as a good sign for the show. It means they were in limbo those two weeks and couldn’t properly prepare either way. It’s only now that they know what they’re dealing with and that they can try to fix it.