#geostrategy

[simplicius-simplicissimus]

Elvis Presley - Suspicious Minds

We can't go on together

With suspicious minds

And we can't build our dreams

On suspicious minds

Comment: Trust….the most valuable currency….in love and in politics!

[bopinion]

2023 / 03

Aperçu of the Week:

"A regime that murders its own youth to intimidate its population has no future."

(Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who again summoned the Iranian ambassador to the Foreign Office after the execution of two more protesters in Iran)

Bad News of the Week:

In the 1980s, we took to the streets with the slogan "Make peace without weapons!" Nowadays, it's "We need more guns to keep the peace." Swords to plowshares was yesterday. A beautiful dream from which we wake up startled because a few despots on this planet apparently had a too small shovel in their sandbox. Or a too small penis in their pants. "Geostrategic interests" is the name of the game. The laughter gets stuck in your throat there.

Welcome to a new age of the arms race. Current lowlight: President Emanuel Macron announces that he will invest almost 700 billion in France's military by the end of this decade. Among other things, in aircraft carriers and - watch out! - nuclear weapons. Because "nuclear deterrence (is) an element that distinguishes France from other countries in Europe." So do baguettes and croissants. But they are much more digestible. And, "We see again, in analyzing the war in Ukraine, their high importance." Ooph...

Good News of the Week:

The global community faces a series of interlinked crises. As this year's Global Risks Report explained, a polycrisis. As the summary of the 53rd World Economic Forum in Davos puts it: "The scale of the challenge, the sense of urgency, and the importance of collaboration was a thread that linked all the discussions this week, whether on Ukraine, the climate crises, supply chains, technology and innovation, health, the economy and so much more." In his closing statement, WEF President Børge Brende therefore also says that "in an uncertain and challenging time, one thing is clear: We can shape a more resilient, sustainable and equitable future, but the only way to do so is together."

For years, the Swiss event has been as a gathering of global elites who, far removed from the everyday lives of ordinary citizens of the world, worshipped the capitalist El Dorado of globalization. That is increasingly changing, even if not everyone has realized it yet. For example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who used his appearance there as an advertisement for Germany as a business location instead of showing internationally long-awaited leadership in crisis management. This year's motto was "Cooperation in a fragmented World", which explicitly does not only mean economic cooperation.

WEF founder Klaus Schwab published the book "The Great Reset" a good two years ago. Conspiracy theorists (mis)understand the positions in it as evidence that a non-transparent neoliberal club is reaching for authoritarian world domination. In fact, it is exactly the opposite: in a disruptive age, the only viable perspective for the global community is to reorient the economy and society. Toward sustainability and social balance instead of profit maximization regardless its downsides.

Once again, it is UN Secretary-General António Guterres who puts it in a nutshell: "There are no perfect solutions in a perfect storm. But we can work to control the damage and seize opportunities. Now more than ever, it's time to forge the pathways to cooperation." Guterres apparently not only has better speechwriters, but also a clearer compass than Scholz. If the physical meeting of global decision-makers in appropriately placarded venues can also be understood as rallying behind the idea in terms of economic policy and aligning their future decisions and actions with it, the world can not only weather the polycrisis, but perhaps even emerge stronger. I hope I'm not being too naive here.

Personal happy moment of the week:

Winter has come after all. Which we enjoyed yesterday on a hike with friends around the Eibsee at the foot of the Zugspitze. As well as with the best pasta I've eaten in a long time. That's how a weekend has to be.

I couldn't care less...

...that French people see it as state overreach that the retirement age is to be raised moderately to 64. In Germany, we are already at 67, and even that will not be affordable in view of the baby boomers who will soon reach that age. To put it another way: the more years you work in the future, the fewer years you will spend in old-age poverty.

As I write this...

...I hope for the better: Today, according to the Chinese calendar, the Year of the Water Bunny begins. A year of hope, as it is called. We can all certainly use that.

Post Scriptum

"The (...) danger assumed on the basis of subjective perception is neither concrete nor present. Whether there will be climate changes is not scientifically proven, causal links between individual human impacts on the environment and climate phenomena are open." What sounds like Joe Manchin is an official pronouncement with which the energy company RWE - that's right: which is currently demolishing Lützerath - has defended itself in court against accepting responsibility for climate change. In 2006!

RWE is the largest producer of carbon dioxide in Europe. And in the next few years, it will earn about half a billion euros a year from coal alone, according to estimates by analysts such as Guido Hoymann, an expert on energy suppliers from Bankhaus Metzler. So money should be there when, hopefully, large-scale lawsuits are finally filed because fossil fuel companies have not only ruined the climate, but also lied about the consequences against their better judgment. The tobacco and fast food producers can sing a song about this.

[simplicius-simplicissimus]

A New World Order

Thoughts:

Everyone talks about the US and China as “superpowers,” but they forget one thing:

The EU and the European democracies closely connected to it have over 540 million mostly financially strong and well‑educated people, because its societies put its people first — not its elites to exploit them.

These are (still) functioning democracies, though increasingly hollowed out by the capitalist influence of the United States which rather looks like an oligarchy today.

Europeans don’t love paying taxes either, but they value the social achievements financed and supported by it (free education, universal healthcare, financial independent politicians, financial independent media, worker’s rights etc.).

The happiest people in the world live in Europe.

Europe has the strongest single market on the planet.

Its combined GDP is comparable to that of the US and greater than China.

Combined it has the second largest military including nuclear weapons.

The EU is a trade champion, with more trade agreements than any other global actor.

When Mark Carney speaks at the WEF in Davos about a new world order, he is criticizing superpowers — and describing one concept above all: the EU’s peace model, the only functioning supranational structure in the world. It’s not perfect, but it is reinventing itself: more independence, more political strength and strategy, and above all more military capability — alongside its economic strength. Where the UN has failed, the EU works. That’s why it is the better offer to the world compared to the US and China. It offers genuine cooperation for the benefit of its partners. That’s why Europeans are trade champions.

Globalization is useful — just not for superpowers, because it weakens them. That’s why the US is turning away from it and toward open hegemony, burning its reputation and the last remnants of global trust. The US was never “good” (over 70 regime‑change operations since the end of WWII). It has always practiced power politics — its partners simply used to benefit from it.

The deal used to be: the US gets to act as the world’s leading power, even overstepping at times — in return, it provides global stability and security. The world accepts the dollar as the reserve currency and grants the US its “exorbitant privilege,” effectively financing the United States. Yes, dear Donald — the world subsidizes the US, not the other way around. And you know it, because you’re terrified of the day we decide to pull our investments and let the US economy face the spiral you pretend doesn’t exist. The US abandoned this deal long ago — and definitively under Trump. That’s why dollar dominance and trust in the US are fading: the world is tired of American hypocrisy and is reorganizing itself with alternatives to G7, NATO, SWIFT, and the US financial system, which Washington increasingly uses as a weapon. This is exactly what Mark Carney is criticizing.

The US is ignorant of the world — which is why it is so bad at nation‑building. To quote Zbigniew Brzezinski, former US National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter:

“Most Americans are close to total ignorance about the world. They are ignorant. That is an unhealthy condition in a country in which foreign policy has to be endorsed by the people if it is to be pursued. And it makes it much more difficult for any president to pursue an intelligent policy that does justice to the complexity of the world.”

The EU’s strength lies in understanding other interests and finding compromises. That’s the only way a structure made up of different cultures, languages and interests - like the EU - can function: by truly embracing diversity instead of merely talking about it. Canada with the French speaking province Quebec understands this approach! Yes, there is bargaining behind closed doors, but the goal is always to find peaceful common ground. It works because major powers have learned to restrain themselves for the common good. Leadership by example — not coercion and manipulation.

On a continental scale, the EU reflects principles long practiced in Central Europe. The German lands developed over centuries from many small states into a unified country through federal structures, shared institutions, and the willingness of powerful actors to compromise — an approach that mirrors the EU’s own integration model. German thinkers such as Kant, Humboldt, Marx, Nietzsche, and Weber have shaped key elements of Western intellectual life, and Germany’s social model influenced modern welfare systems across the democratic world. At the same time, Germany’s history — including its darkest chapters — has reinforced Europe’s commitment to human rights, democratic restraint, and peaceful cooperation. In this sense, Germany’s trajectory offers both inspiration and caution for the EU and for any region seeking stable, rules‑based integration.

When Howard Lutnik (US Secretary of Commerce) rambles at the WEF in Davos about oil and gas and tries to persuade Europe to abandon its energy transition, it reflects exactly this ignorance.

So, one more thing about wind and solar energy. The narrative claims this is just a “green illusion.” But that’s only one side of the strategy. Converting heating and mobility from fossil fuels to renewable energy is, for China and for Europe, about becoming independent from oil and gas imports. Electric systems (motors and heat pumps) are more efficient than fossil ones, meaning per‑capita energy consumption decreases — making the entire economy more efficient. On top of that, wind and solar energy are unbeatable in cost once capacity and transmission lines are built. And even during periods of low wind and solar output, there are technical solutions — nothing that solid engineering cannot handle. This is a forward‑looking investment in modernizing energy infrastructure, which will eventually lead to extremely low electricity prices once the transition is complete. When oil becomes scarce and too expensive to burn, this transformation will be unavoidable anyway. Everything else is just propaganda from the oil industry to stay in business and keep ripping people off.

And now the “kicker” — why I believe Europe’s time is yet to come:

The Three Greatest Risks to Humanity — and the Coming Phosphate Crisis

We are entering a century shaped by converging risks. Three stand out — not because they are loud, but because they are structural. They determine whether our civilization stabilizes… or fractures.

1. Climate Change

A relentless stress multiplier.

Rising temperatures, extreme weather, collapsing ecosystems — all destabilize agriculture, water systems, and political stability. Climate change amplifies every other threat.

2. Geopolitical Fragmentation

A multipolar world means rivalry, not cooperation.

Nations compete for resources, technology, and influence. But the challenges ahead — pandemics, energy transitions, food security — cannot be solved through rivalry. Fragmentation weakens us all.

3. Phosphate Scarcity

The silent threat no one talks about.

Phosphorus is essential for plant growth. Modern agriculture depends on phosphate fertilizers. Without them, global food production collapses.

But phosphate is finite. Non‑renewable. Concentrated in just a few places.

Major Known Deposits:

Norway: ~70–77 billion tonnes — potentially the largest deposit ever identified

Morocco: ~50 billion tonnes

China: ~3.8 billion tonnes

Egypt: ~2.8 billion tonnes

Tunisia: ~2.5 billion tonnes

Russia: ~2.4 billion tonnes

Even Norway’s massive discovery doesn’t change the core truth: we are burning through a resource (it is simply washed away and lost for use) that cannot be replaced.

If phosphate becomes scarce:

Falling crop yields (20–80% depending on the crop)

Rising food prices

Hunger crises

Social unrest

Geopolitical conflict

This is not a distant scenario — it will happen within the next 50–100 years. It is a structural fault line in the global food system.

The only sustainable path is to recycle phosphorus and keep it within the agricultural cycle — a challenge requiring advanced technology, political will, and global coordination. Recycling will never reach 100%, but combined with remaining deposits, it could secure food supply for a very long time.

If we fail?

Without reliable phosphorus inputs, global crop yields would collapse to a fraction of today’s levels — far too little to sustain the current world population.

Cooperate or Suffer

Climate change, geopolitical fragmentation, and resource scarcity form a single, interlocking crisis.

Either we overcome our vanity and learn to cooperate — or we face unimaginable suffering.

Outlook

The fact that this crucial resource — phosphate — is concentrated precisely at or nearby societies that have learned to overcome national ego and cooperate peacefully presents an opportunity and chance. Globalization itself was good — it only failed because of the testosterone‑driven ambitions of the powerful players, the US and China. These actors never wanted a global order unless it served their interests.

The next century will belong to Europe — which will have completed its energy transition and will be sitting on this treasure. Either the world chooses global cooperation (because climate change and food security can only be solved collectively), or Europe will eventually have to act more selfishly as well. For everyone else, nature will be merciless — and you can’t eat weapons.

-Simplicius Simplicissimus