Aug 11, 2022
The 4 things it takes to be an expert (not just 10000 hours):
Repeated attempts with feedback
A valid environment
Timely feedback
Don’t get too comfortable
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The 4 things it takes to be an expert (not just 10000 hours):
Repeated attempts with feedback
A valid environment
Timely feedback
Don’t get too comfortable
You and your friends think something is 70% likely - this forecasting expert explains why it’s more than 70% likely.
Philip Tetlock is one of my favorite social scientists. I often joke that every cable news show should be forced to display a disclaimer, streaming in a loop at the bottom of the screen. The disclaimer would read: “These talking heads have been scientifically proven to not know what they are talking about. Their blather is for entertainment purposes only."
Lehrer: Can non-experts do anything to encourage a more effective punditocracy? Should I feel bad about watching Meet the Press?
Tetlock: Yes, non-experts can encourage more accountability in the punditocracy. Pundits are remarkably skillful at appearing to go out on a limb in their claims about the future, without actually going out on one. For instance, they often “predict” continued instability and turmoil in the Middle East (predicting the present) but they virtually never get around to telling you exactly what would have to happen to disconfirm their expectations. They are essentially impossible to pin down.
If pundits felt that their public credibility hinged on participating in level playing field forecasting exercises in which they must pit their wits against an extremely difficult-to-predict world, I suspect they would be learn, quite quickly, to be more flexible and foxlike in their policy pronouncements.
Some Thoughts On Superforecasting By Philip Tetlock
Some Thoughts On Superforecasting By Philip Tetlock
“For scientists, not knowing is exciting. It’s an opportunity to discover; the more that is unknown, the greater the opportunity.”
Philip E. Tetlock
“Suppose someone says, “Unfortunately, the popularity of soccer, the world’s favorite pastime, is starting to decline.” You suspect he is wrong. How do you question the claim? Don’t even think of taking a personal shot like “You’re silly.” That…
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Inteligência Competitiva: Como prever o futuro (e acertar)
Inteligência Competitiva: Como prever o futuro (e acertar)
Sem formação ou conhecimentos notáveis em geopolítica, Bill Flack, funcionário público aposentado do interior dos EUA, consegue ser mais preciso que equipes profissionais de inteligência ao prever se a Coreia do Norte vai lançar um dispositivo nuclear até dezembro ou se o Brasil será convidado a integrar o Conselho de Segurança da ONU nos próximos dois anos.
Flack não é um gênio ou um oráculo…
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Vague expectations about indefinite futures are not helpful. Fuzzy thinking can never be proven wrong. And only when we are proven wrong so clearly that we can no longer deny it to ourselves will we adjust our mental models of the world -- producing a clearer picture of reality. Forecast, measure, revise: it is the surest path to seeing better.
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting (2015), p. 252.
How To Deal With All Those Conflicting Investment Opinions
How To Deal With All Those Conflicting Investment Opinions
With so many financial news outlets offering so many often conflicting headlines and opinions, how is an investor to know what to do? That’s a question that Validea CEO John Reese looks at in his latest column for Canada’s Globe and Mail.
“In an arena as complex as the stock market, there are always two sides to an issue – and sometimes many more – and you can almost always find data to support…
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4 Ways On How to Improve Forecasting Skills, a Credit Suisse Report by Mauboussin
4 Ways On How to Improve Forecasting Skills, a Credit Suisse Report by Mauboussin
In the aggregate, forecasters may be “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimp,” but some forecasters are particularly and consistently far better than average. Credit Suisse reports that the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner provides important insights into how to improve forecasting skill, perhaps by as much as 60%. In other words,…
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