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Bill Day

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On Sunday morning, President Biden spoke for all Americans when he said the following to House Republicans:

Quite frankly, I am sick and tired of the brinkmanship. Enough is enough is enough. This is not that complicated. The brinkmanship has to end, and there shouldn't be another crisis. Don't waste time as you did all summer. Pass a year-long budget agreement. Honor the deal we made a few months ago.

Biden also demanded that Republicans honor their agreement to hold a vote on funding the defense of Ukraine:

We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted. I fully expect the speaker to keep his commitment to secure the passage and support needed to help Ukraine as they defend themselves against aggression and brutality.

The dust has not settled from Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s decision to rely on Democratic votes in the House to pass a continuing resolution. McCarthy’s decision shifted the power dynamic in the House GOP caucus—but it is not clear how that shift will play out. But we should know sooner rather than later. The universally reviled Rep. Matt Gaetz announced Sunday that he will file a motion to “vacate the chair”—a vote of “no confidence” on McCarthy.

McCarthy responded to the threat by saying, “Let's get over with it. Let's start governing.”

While Gaetz’s motion may not succeed in removing McCarthy, there is no way McCarthy will emerge with a mandate to govern. Based on the Saturday vote on the continuing resolution, McCarthy can deliver only 126 Republican votes when it matters.

McCarthy’s future is in the hands of House Democrats. If they vote against McCarthy on the motion to vacate, McCarthy’s tenure as Speaker will end. If Democrats vote “present,” McCarthy will survive—but he will be dependent on Democrats if he hopes “to start governing.”

The email responses I received from readers regarding the omission of funding for Ukraine were among the angriest I have received in six years of writing this newsletter. They included words like “disgusted,” “betrayal,” “cowardice,” and “Putin’s useful idiots.” But at least one reader in the Comments section noted that many Americans oppose all military aid to prolong conflict with nuclear powers—which includes opposing support for Ukraine (and without intending to support Putin).

Reader James Schumaker, a retired Foreign Service Officer, notes that the question of the US commitment to funding Ukraine is coming at the precise moment that Russia is dropping pretense about its territorial aims:

Putin's propagandists have dropped their "NATO is to blame for Ukraine" line and are now, for once, telling the truth. They are saying that the Putin regime's overarching objective is to restore the Russian Empire. (Russian State TV Lays Out Plans for New Empire (newsweek.com)) This means a philosophy of endless expansion that will probably not stop at the high-water mark of empire, which, to remind people, was when Russia controlled Finland, Poland, the Baltic States, and the territory of all the former Republics of the Soviet Union. MAGA Republicans are operating as Putin's handmaidens and should be called out for that early and often. Their "America First" predecessors in the 1930s were similarly sympathetic to aggressive dictators and opposed an active US policy to support our friends and allies in Europe. If Americans do not want a repeat of the mistakes of the 1930s -- which will result in even worse consequences for us and the world -- it is time to wake up and remember who we are, and just who and what we must defend.

Democrats made a difficult decision to support a continuing resolution that did not include funding for Ukraine. They did so in reliance on assurances from Kevin McCarthy—the man who failed to honor the assurances he gave Biden on the debt increase agreement, a breach that led to the shutdown crisis.

The dramatic events of Saturday are just the beginning of a reorientation in congressional power. House Democrats are now negotiating from a position of strength despite being in the minority. It will be an interesting 45 days until the next shutdown crisis.

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Once again, we have averted disaster only hours after there appeared to be no prospect for victory. Lurching from crisis to crisis is no way to govern because—sooner or later—one of the crises will not be averted. But there is a valuable lesson in what happened on Saturday:

When push came to shove, nearly 60% of Republicans in the House voted in favor of sanity and order over insanity and chaos.

Even better, 80% of all members of the House voted in favor of sanity and order, while only 20% voted in favor of a senseless shutdown.

Reflect on those numbers: 80% vs. 20%. Those percentages map neatly onto a widely applicable pattern in life where most natural phenomena demonstrate breakpoints at the 80% vs 20% dividing line. We should not be shocked that 20% of the members of the House would vote in favor of a government shutdown. We should be comforted by the fact that 80% of all House members—and 60% of all Republicans—voted in favor of the rational path forward.

Until the moment of the successful vote on the continuing resolution on Saturday, the media devoted 80% of its attention to the 20% outliers in the House. The over-emphasis on a small minority of irrational Republicans distorted the reality of the situation in the House and unnecessarily heightened anxiety in a situation that was already anxiety producing enough.

Here’s my point: When it came time on Saturday for Republicans to declare whether they were part of the chaos caucus or the reality caucus, they chose the latter. When the masks finally dropped away, we learned that there is more ground for hope than most of us assumed. Getting to “Yes” on Saturday was an ugly process. But the fact that we got to “Yes” should give us hope that there remains a central core of rational legislators around which a functioning Congress can be built. It is a small glimmer of hope, but we should welcome any possibility of progress that comes our way.

On that optimistic note, I will say, “Talk to you tomorrow!”

[Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter]

#Robert B. Hubbell #Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter #sanity #political #Soviet empire #Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine #the Sanity Caucus #House Republicans

Ogre-Pattern Heavy Shock armor.

Given to the most veteran troops of a Cosmomarine Legion, this armor is designed to take extremely heavy fire, and is capable of wielding weapons to dish it back out. As such, Terminators, as they have been affectionately dubbed, are often used in storming fortifications and ship boarding actions. The enemies of the Motherland tremble before their advance.

Another awesome commission by @hawker-rawr, this time showcasing what is, in essence, a communist Space Marine Terminator. I’ve been thinking about an alt history story where the Soviet Union unites the world under one banner, and then later creates it’s own Space Marine Legions to conquer the galaxy.

#hawker-rawr #soviet's ocs #cosmomarine #soviet empire #alt history #a red galaxy