The Numbers Game: What Does it Really Take to Win?
The big news in the NDP leadership campaign has been the new membership numbers, up to 124,000 from 41,000 in March. That seems huge, and everyone is very excited about this jump. Jagmeet Singh's campaign is particularly excited, since they're claiming over 47,000 of those new members as supporters who they have signed up. The hot takes on social (and mainstream) media are that these numbers prove that Singh has the leadership skills and organizational capacity to build the NDP into a party that can beat Trudeau's Liberals in the next election.
However, these new membership numbers aren't much different from where the NDP was at in 2012 when Mulcair was elected, in fact slightly lower. So why didn't we win the 2015 election? And why did membership drop so precipitously over the last few years, and what can we do to prevent that from happening again?
The premise that the NDP can build an electoral machine to rival the Liberal party (or would even want to!) is the problem here. A leadership candidate with the backing of the NDP establishment can build an impressive membership campaign, it's true. The establishment has some power; they are pretty deeply entrenched in Canada's media scene, and they run marketing and polling and strategy firms, so they have access to money. A concerted effort, big donation money for campaign managers and organizers, and the membership can be doubled or tripled.
But this machine is nothing compared to what the Liberals (or the Conservatives!) can bring to bear. The Liberals have the wealth of Bay Street and the entirety of the Canadian media behind them. The NDP will never have the resources that the Liberal party can muster. We will never have the strategists and power-players the Liberal party has. We will never raise as much money or be able to hire as many organizers and canvassers as the Liberals. We will never have the media and big-data-based advertising campaigns the Liberals can buy.
And the Canadian center-left electorate, barely able to differentiate centrist NDP policies from the Liberals, will never want to take the risk of splitting the vote and seeing the Conservatives get back into power. So we lose elections, we lose seats in parliament and membership numbers evaporate. That's essentially what happened in the last election and it's what will happen in the next if we make the same mistakes.
The success of the Sanders campaign in the U.S. and especially the Corbyn campaign in the U.K. can teach us something: the best way to compete with big money is with politics and people. Those campaigns started with solid politics, decisively to the left, that energized members and gave them a reason to become involved. And the people they attracted weren't just there for a leadership vote and a onetime donation, they became the volunteer-base that was central to the campaign.
If the NDP has a path to winning a federal election it is by growing a membership of committed activists who are passionate about our politics and want to do the work it takes to win. A large and growing base of organized and active volunteers, funded by a campaign of small dollar donations, is the only way the NDP will ever defeat the Liberals. The model of professional strategists and organizers works for the Liberals, but it hasn't worked for us and never will.
It is democratic-socialist politics that will attract committed activists to the NDP. That's what created the movements behind Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn. From the start, Niki Ashton has campaigned on a broad platform of social, environmental and economic justice, to the left of the other candidates. Her platform calls for tuition-free education, for public pharma-care and dental care, for nationalizing key industries, for good and stable jobs, and for a serious environmental program. She backs this up with wealth and corporate taxes that will redistribute from the 1% to the rest of us.
Niki has brought new members to the NDP, activists who would never have been involved in the NDP before. She has brought back members who have quit over the years, frustrated by the party's drift to the center. And she has connected with existing members who long to see the the party return to its democratic-socialist roots.
Niki Ashton's campaign undoubtedly signed up less new members than Jagmeet Singh's campaign. However, every one of those new members is a potential activist and volunteer, someone who joined because they were excited by Niki's message and want to be involved in a party of the left. These new members want to be part of a fight to put people before profits, and to build a party that will challenge the rich and powerful. Every one of those new members will vote in this leadership election, and every one would be on the streets for the NDP in the next federal election if Niki wins. How many of Jagmeet Singh's new members will even vote?
Singh's numbers don't guarantee him a first ballot victory. It's time for us to be activists and to reach out to our fellow members and make sure they vote. We think Niki Ashton is the best choice for building an activist NDP that can win against the Liberals, but if you prefer a different candidate then get out the vote for them. This election isn't over yet.
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