My brain feels like slushy @rosmerie-sleeps - Tumblr Blog

Aug 30, 2025

Hello, i would like to know more about Closing Night. Could you please share your Theories? Wirh best wishes, Luke.

Sorry I didn't get around to this sooner. But at least by waiting this long, it gave me a chance to put this all together once we got the extra details from each of their 6th letters.

I tried my best with this, so apologies in advance for any imperfections or mistakes.

Hullabaloo Analysis

Backstories

Of the Hullabaloo cast, Murro Morton is the oldest (45), so we will use him as the starting point for the timeline.

We know Murro’s parents were the original owners of the Hullabaloo circus (Murro’s 4th and 6th letters). They were always working to ensure the circus remained profitable, yet spent none of their time with their own son (“young Murro never experienced love or companionship from his parents”). Due to their lack of time and attention for him, they instead left Murro in the care of his uncle, Bernard.

Sadly, he equally showed no love for the young boy.

“Bernard treated him like one of the circus animals. He didn't even know how to raise a child, he only knew how to train beasts.” “Bernard offered him nothing but cold, barren walls and a broken toy dog.”

Life only got worse after his parents died:

"Later, the boy's parents died in a tragic accident—who knows if it was truly an accident. Anyway, Bernard took over the circus and supposedly locked the boy in a room with nailed-up windows. No one was allowed to speak to him. Every day, Bernard would throw a piece of dry bread through the door, leaving the boy to starve like a wild beast. I could always see him curled up in a corner, trembling, his body covered in bruises and lash marks from whips..."

There appears to have been little love between the brothers. Whether out of a desire for more than he had, or anger from the success of his brother while Bernard worked a less glamourous job, there’s a high probability Bernard caused that “accident”. Especially when you think about how Bernard treats nearly everyone at the circus.

All this seems to have happened by the time Murro was 10 years old (Murro’s deduction 1). Once Bernard took over, he raised Murro to be a wild man. Locking him in a solitary room, starving him, and continuing to abuse him constantly, all while having him ride on a boar through rings of fire for his circus acts.

Bernard’s treatment was purposeful. He cared naught for others, only how he could utilize them for money. The audience wasn’t much better, as: “The more miserable and pitiful he was, the more money the crowd paid”. Murro was the star for a time, but once the audience grew bored of his act, “Bernard had already found new ways to exploit him”.

As I said, Murro wasn’t the only one treated in such a cruel fashion.

The next oldest of the Hullabaloo cast is Violetta (24).

She was found under a seat after a performance by Max, the owner of the “Amazing Cabin”. This was another traveling circus, like Bernard’s, except this functioned more as a freak show. Despite this, Max wasn’t any different from Bernard, as he too took advantage of and abused his actors.

“The man involved was a trafficker named Max, who used a traveling circus as a front to exploit vulnerable individuals—especially those with physical or mental disabilities. He would recruit them and sell them to other circuses, underground black markets, or even darker places.” “…police discovered he had leased a dungeon and found some of the people he had trafficked…”

He had Violetta perform acts regardless of how suitable it was for her. All that mattered was drawing attention to his show, and the audiences enjoyed watching her misery just as they did with Murro.

“He placed Violetta on top of a wine barrel in front of the circus tent. With nowhere to lean, she had to constantly roll around to maintain her balance.” “As Violetta grew older, Max put her in a custom outfit and made her perform on stage. She had to stand, tumble, and crawl, often at the mercy of Max's whims.” “People will pay a hefty price for tickets, even if all they get to see is her crawling awkwardly on the ground with her meatball-like limbs.” “Poster: Only 5 and 3/4 pennies to enter and admire this mysterious creature—a cross between a penguin and a man! Only at Max’s Amazing Cabin!”

Continuing to mirror Bernard and Murro, the audience grew tired of Violetta’s act, so Max instead had her attempt to balance atop balls. This was despite Violetta’s disability, which made it incredibly difficult or impossible for her.

We’re never explicitly told what exactly her disability is, only that she required special joints/body to get around. So, she was either born potentially without limbs, born unable to use them properly, or something similar.

Like Bernard to Murro, Max showed no love for Violetta. The one main difference though is Violetta saw Max as a father figure, even when he denied this.

Deduction 3: Family “You can deny it all you want, but you are still my ‘father’.”

She knew he wasn’t a “good person in the traditional sense”. However, the reason she still loved him in a sense was because “Max is the only one who looks at me the same way he does others” (Violetta’s 1st letter). With everyone else, she disliked how they “looked at me like how they looked at kittens and puppies”. Violetta wants to be treated as an equal, not pitied. She doesn’t want to be viewed as not as “able” as others. She wants to be normal, and she wants to receive love, regardless of whether it comes in a completely honest form, and right now that way is with Max. The only 1 who treated her the same way as everyone else.

“When the novelty of Violetta's act wore off, Max devised a new one: balancing on balls… I couldn't fathom how she could manage…. But Max disagreed at first. He believed that if Violetta were light enough, she could float on the ball like a feather.”

This was why she continued to practice the new trick Max asked of her, and why she continued to want to perform for him despite the audience viewing her as “repulsive” (deduction 5). This was why she was “always strangely happy during each practice”.

“Photo: A girl missing her limbs is falling down once again from a red rubber ball; her body is covered in bruises.” “Max, I'll become your star again; just give me a bit more time to practice.”

Yet, success escapes her no matter the effort she puts in. To make matters worse, Max had been attempting to starve her to try to make the trick work, and she “might not have survived that winter” if not for the other performers bringing her food.

After this, he wanted to have Violetta carry out similar acts as the ones performed by the Will Brothers (Polun): “At the time, a popular performance by triplets born with dwarfism was going on in the city—comical tricks, walking on balls, riding monocycles”. However, this was halted once the “city boycotted comical performances by performers with disabilities”.

Eventually it got to the point (likely not long after the failures with balancing on a ball and comical performances) that Max could find no more use with Violetta. Therefore, he had her sold to Bernard and the Hullabaloo circus.

Deduction 10: Expired You do know all products have an expiration date, don’t you? Photo: Outside, a cage with a human inside is being transported on a carriage. A man wearing a top hat is counting money without looking up.

Before this occurs, Violetta was heard saying “Who stole my performance?!”. My best guess is this is meant to tie to how Barbara says later in that letter (Violetta’s 6th letter) that “Max was planning to make me the main act for the circus in the new year”. This could be the “who” that “stole” Violetta’s performance, while the “performance” refers to being the main act (or being able to perform on stage at all). It could also help explain why it was so important for us to be told that Barbara was the new main act.

There is the issue that the letter refers to this line being said with a “dramatic tone full of exaggerated resentment”, but I believe this is just referring to the fact that Pip (another performer from Max’s circus) is the one who is mimicking Violetta saying this line, rather than Violetta saying these words with “exaggerated” resentment.

So, Violetta may have been the main act before then. Maybe that could tie to how earlier in the letter Pip says “Perhaps that man thought everyone was like Violetta”. Maybe Violetta’s disabilities were much greater (or at least more visible) than the others at the circus, and thus why he might want to turn her into the main attraction, or as her deduction 5 is titled, into a “celebrity”. But this changed once the audience grew bored of her previous act, and when she was unable to succeed at balancing on a ball or any alternatives, Max needed someone else to be the star. Thus, she was taken off as the main “performance”, something she may have had some pride in if the “gift” Violetta refers to receiving from Max in her 1st letter was being the “star”.

This could make sense when looking at how her 1st and 2nd/6th emphasize the importance of the new year. The beginning of the new year may have been when Max would announce who was doing what acts, and thus who the main attraction would be. And with how much Violetta cared about her performances, that could explain why, at the start of her 1st letter, she says “Everyone, no matter how desperate, should be hopeful on the first day of each year”. It would also explain why, in that letter, she was waiting for Max. This could be what she meant when she said she finally knew “what I needed”. I think she was referring to being the “star” of the show. Thus also tying in to how, in her 4th letter, she emphasizes “A new stage will be mine, right?”.

Violetta was unhappy at no longer being able to perform at Max’s circus (possibly as this was close to when he was going to sell her to Hullabaloo). I think the reason Violetta stopped writing “without explanation” after Barbara’s letter was because she was hurt at learning Max replacing Violetta with her friend. That’s why she was unable to respond to Barbara, but Barbara clearly didn’t understand how important this was to Violetta, despite how they all noticed how much work Violetta put into practicing. Despite Barbara being Violetta’s “best friend” at Max’s (though she did comment on Violetta’s “ugly and horrifying limbs of yours, so she wasn’t a very good friend in the first place anyways).

Once she was sold to Hullabaloo, Barabara informs us (Violetta’s 6th letter) that Violetta’s “mobility had improved after her limbs were modified so she could write”. However, it seems Violetta first got her prosthetics before she left Max’s circus, as Barbara in Violetta’s 2nd letter states “Those peculiar joints of yours after your reconstruction would get rusty and painful. They would even make troubling sounds in the middle of the night”. Looking at the context, I believe it was only later that her body was more fully “reconstructed” (into her current one), to allow her to better move around (Barbara: “But at least you get to crawl around now”).

By looking at her relationship chart, we can confirm that it was Tracy who “rescued” Violetta, meaning they must’ve met sometime after Violetta came to Hullabaloo but before the tragedy occurred.

She did get a new stage by joining Hullabaloo, and was still enthusiastic about her performances, considering the rehearsal she wanted to carry out with the others before the tragedy, but we’re not there yet.

Backing up, next is Margaretha Zelle (23), whose real name is Natasha (Natasha from her 1st letter. Hayward is the last name of her aunt and uncle, so her full name may be Natasha Hayward).

We don’t know her full story, as the start of what we know begins with Hastur’s 1st letter, which informs us that she fled “15 years ago” with her Aunt Marjorie and Uncle Eugene to Lakeside village. There’s no info on where they came from or what happened to her parents. The only small additional detail comes from Hastur’s 6th letter. In it, we learn the village was originally a humble, isolated place until 20 years ago when “the refugees arrived – strangers fleeing the fires of war, their lengthy family names easy to identify from the rest of the residents”. So, they likely came from outside of England at least, from some war which could be the reason for the absence of her parents.

Her aunt and uncle “worked hard to stay”, meaning they wanted to ensure they fit in. As this was a fishing village, that might’ve meant becoming fishermen, which Natasha was not enthused at the idea of. She isn’t satisfied with the simple life she’s living, the cheap cotton clothes she’s wearing, or her grievances with her aunt and uncle. Instead, she’s enamored by luxury, fine clothes, jewelry, shopping, and partying. She wants more than what she has, and the way she feels she can get that is through Hullabaloo circus, which eventually visits Lakeside Village, and Sergei, the “handsome smiling clown”.

“That tent seems to harbor everything I want. Fresh flowers, fine clothes, applause...and a handsome smiling clown.”

She continues to spend time with Sergei, who gifts her with a music box that she keeps even when he’s gone. However, Eugene dislikes Sergei, and orders her to stay away from him. When she refuses, and after Sergei asks her to “spend your life with me”, Eugene attempts to lock Margaretha in the house to keep Sergei out, but he still manages his way through an open window.

With Sergei’s convincing, she puts her aunt and uncle to sleep via “Soothing Salt” (sedative) in their borscht, allowing her to escape with him to the circus after changing her name to Natalie. Based on Natasha’s 1st letter, it seems like Sergei wasn’t just responsible for her knocking out her aunt and uncle, he seemed to have also contributed to her dreaming of the “Big City”. It’s becoming clear that he is a very manipulative man, but Margaretha won’t realize what his true personality is until later.

Before then, I want to introduce the rest of the Hullabaloo cast.

From Margaretha, we’re going to Mike (22).

Mike was adopted by Bernard when he was young. From 1 of his birthday questions and the Japanese reference book, we learn Mike was a wandering entertainer before then. Bernard raises him into “the most popular guy in the traveling circus” (he was at least responsible for teaching Mike juggling). From this same deduction (2), we see that Mike himself is the one who wanted to introduce risk (in the form of rocks, nitre, and so on) into his tricks.

Joker (20) is the sad clown of Hullabaloo. We don’t know who his parents were, but they apparently believed him to be a “born circus cash cow”. It’s likely because of them that he ended up at Hullabaloo. And considering his job at the circus in terms of their comment, they likely didn’t view Joker very highly, probably because of the “deformed leg” he was born with (like Violetta’s parents probably were with Violetta and her disability). Joker, who is described as “submissive”, felt he had no choice but to do as was asked and play the part of the fool.

Considering his disability and “crying face” he was born with, this makes me wonder if the reason Joker is so “submissive” has to do with how his parents treated him (aka, not very well). And since his parents are never mentioned again, they probably did this to get rid of him (and for money). It’s likely the latter considering in Joker’s 6th letter it discusses the constant lack of details with his past, and Alice comments “Such individuals often came from backgrounds where family lines were long since severed, either by death or deliberate estrangement”.

Upon joining Hullabaloo, Joker “naturally” became the “weeping” clown. In this role, he “was accustomed to limping on the stage and using his funny face and uncoordinated limbs to make the audience laugh”. A role no different than Murro’s, Violetta’s, and those at Max’s circus. They all had the goal of exchanging their own misery for the audience’s entertainment which profited Bernard.

“Smiley Face trades his own humiliation or his companion’s for the spectator’s joy. This inspires that innermost, dark part of his soul.” “Laughter: Smiley Face tried his best to make the audience laugh but forgot to smile himself.”

I imagine the money Bernard made also went to Mike, since Bernard had adopted him. It might’ve been the reason why Mike could be such a spend thrift in his 6th letter.

“Mike didn't care much about prices. Deville, who sees himself as an honest businessman, had tried to warn Mike—sometimes directly, sometimes with hints—that other sellers were overcharging him. ‘But Mike didn't mind. Old Billy's stuff was purer, Marlon's bottles sealed better, Roger's shop was closer to the circus—Mike always found a reason to go along with it.’”

For a time, Joker was the only clown, as Sergei apparently joined later.

“Joker was once the star of the circus, and his naturally mournful face made him the best weeping clown in the land. But this advantage was threatened when the handsome harlequin Sergi and the beautiful acrobatic starlet Natalie joined the circus.”

With Sergei came Natasha (going by Natalie), who Joker fell in love with. When she joined, she got the role of animal tamer. He wants to be with her, but sees himself as completely inferior to Sergei, and so is unable to express his feelings to her.

Inferiority Complex: Will she... like it? “A female animal tamer is standing before a thin man who is holding a daisy behind his back.” Her “Lover”: They look like...a perfect match. “An intimate photo of the female trainer and the happy Smiley Face at the circus. In the background, a man is crying in the corner.” “Laugh, Smiley Face, laugh! Even if your heart is shattered, even if your love can't be reciprocated.”

Sometime after Natasha joins, we learn in Joker’s 6th letter that Joker caused an incident in order to get his deformed leg amputated. Specifically, what Joker did was impale his leg with “a rusty metal wheel”. This would be Joker’s Ankle Breaker accessory.

“You can tell what happened to Smiley Face's other foot by the spikes all over his body, but Smiley Face has always cherished this companion.”

With that done, he was brought to a physician for treatment (Joker is implied here to not have much money, compared to Mike’s disinterest in prices) with the help of Natasha and Sergei. Bernard simply wanted “conservative treatment” but Joker requested the doctor to instead amputate the limb.

"He must have truly loathed that leg…” “…he was a frequent visitor.” “…the deformity in his leg caused a constant imbalance and undue stress on his joints, making falls during performances all too common. Each fall brought excruciating pain and severe bruising, necessitating painkillers for temporary relief. It seemed the audience derived greater amusement from his suffering, prompting the circus management to demand more of these ‘performances’. After all, ‘some are responsible for the applause, others for the laughter.’ Over time, the torment of physical and mental pain fostered a dependence on cheap painkillers, which in turn exacerbated the very imbalance and fragile nerves they were meant to soothe.”

Natasha initially wanted to stay with Joker but panicked and left upon seeing all the blood. When she and Sergei left, he remained alone at the clinic for 3 days “battling a raging fever from infected wounds”. Bernard was none too happy, as this would lose him money (now that he couldn’t make fun of Joker’s leg to the audience).

Eventually, we discover that Sergei is an alcoholic and has been abusing Natasha for some time. After the two have a “heated argument”, she seeks “refuge” in Joker’s tent.

“Sergi, once the backbone of this circus, he brought numerous joy and laughter onstage. But he was a slave to the bottle offstage.”

Joker finds out the truth at this time, upsetting him enough to confront Sergei, and from Weeping Clown’s deduction 4, we know the two get into a fight.

“A truth discovered by accident is the one that makes one tremble most.” “Diary: Poor Natalie, her back is covered in scars... I need to have a talk with that fiend! He must stop this.” “Revenge: He finally mustered up the courage to swing that punch for her.”

Due to Joker’s confrontation, Sergei learns Natasha had sought out Joker after their argument, enraging him. Somewhere during their fight, Sergei breaks Joker’s prosthetic leg during it.

“A Prosthetic: A prosthetic limb broken in two, with paint peeled off and serious wear and tear at the knee.”

Still wanting more revenge, and to discourage Natasha from running to Joker ever again, Sergei added Mike’s acid to Joker’s makeup. We know from Mike’s 6th letter that this was when Mike “was working on a new act and ordered a batch of stronger acid”. An acid that was of a “much higher concentration”, to the point it was “almost illegal”.

It is unfortunate timing, as this is the stuff Sergei finds and uses against Joker (I imagine the damage wouldn’t have been nearly as serious if Mike hadn’t been testing such strong acid, though if Mike weren’t playing with hazardous material at all, Joker’s face wouldn’t have been corroded at all). Sergei was able to get his hands on it because Mike didn’t secure his materials in a safe location. Instead, he simply kept it in his cabinet. A cabinet we knew wasn’t locked because Murro told Mike in his last letter to him before escaping from Hullabaloo.

Murro had reached the end of his rope with Hullabaloo and decided he wanted out. He’d suffered long enough in this place, and he just wanted away from everyone. He’d never known love or kindness, not from any parental figures and definitely not from the audiences he was subjected to. He’d suffered nearly every day of his 45 years of life. The only source of happiness came from his partner and wild animals. As such, he decided to give up on society and live alone with them.

“After experiencing betrayals and struggles, Murro decided to give up trying to fit into so-called civilized society.” “…the disheveled young man, whose only family had "arranged" him into a cheap yet glittering commodity, riding a wild boar through a flaming hoop, moving toward the center of the spotlight, though his eyes were already hollow, as if his soul had long been shattered by the audience's mocking laughter. He had been raised by whips and hunger, forced to pull a scarred smile to entertain the leering, contemptuous eyes of the crowd. Perhaps, before the stage lights faded, before the world turned its back on him, he too needed a heroic exit.”

The tricky part was Bernard wouldn’t just let him leave willingly, as Murro was still profitable for Bernard. Murro knew he needed assistance and thus reached out to Mike.

“Diary 4: Why do we feel anger, hatred or injustice? People did nothing to me. They ‘watch’ you, Kaspar Hauser, through the whole German. They ‘watched’ us too, the whole world is a huge circus.” “Diary 5: Maybe I should learn from Kaspar Hauser, figure out how to escape. Retreated like a prince, but I need assistance...Bernard won't let me go.”

Murro’s plan was to fake his death in a fire, giving him a “perfect exit worthy of a prince”. The fire was started in the backstage area, which we knew Murro (or Mike) had to have set, as despite the official report blaming a cat, we’re told Bernard hated cats and ensured none were anywhere near the circus.

“The official report claimed that Murro Morton had perished in a fire, ruled as an ‘accident’. A stray cat, it was said, knocked over a bucket of lamp oil, sparking a blaze that consumed the backstage props.” “Because the fire caused no significant financial loss, the ringmaster, Bernard, did not report the incident to the authorities.” “The fire spread quickly, and everyone was scrambling to escape. But Murro suddenly turned and ran into the backstage area to save the props. I've been there—that room was sealed with only one way in and out. When the fire got worse, it consumed everything, and there was no way he could have survived...”

Mike at this time had been paying the investigator Arthur Russell for information on various people. Murro was 1 of them, as we see in Murro’s 1st letter that Mike cancelled this request when Murro faked his death. After the tragedy, we’ll see he also investigated Natasha and Joker. Based on the type of info he seeks from Russell about the latter two, I wonder if Mike, who was close to Murro, wanted to find out more about Murro’s past. Potentially, if he’d allowed Russell to continue working on this investigation, it’s possible he might’ve eventually found out about Murro’s history and ill treatment before Mike came. I doubt this would’ve been the point where he would’ve finally learned just how miserable Hullabaloo really was, but I think it could’ve helped him down that path to reaching that point sooner.

Even without this, Murro does make several comments that should’ve made Mike think, as in his final letter to Mike, he says: “From now on, I can finally be free from this poorly imitated life. I don't have to jump through hoops with my companion day after day just to get some attention. There's no way you'd understand how this feels, but then again, you don't have to. I dare say they won't look that hard for me. After all, no one cares about a toy or ornament they've grown tired of. You and I are different. May you enjoy the stage and Bernard's care for you. The jamboree in a few days is your chance to shine.”

From this, Murro does reference his misery at the circus, but at the same time, Murro does say “there’s no way you’d understand how this feels”. Mike doesn’t think too deep on why Murro wants to leave the circus with enough desperation to want to fake his death. Likely, he just thought that Murro simply didn’t enjoy the stage as much as Mike, and left it as a difference in preferences.

It doesn’t say why Mike wanted Arthur Russell to investigate Murro in the first place. It might’ve been part of the plan to ensure people believed Murro was dead, but I’m not too sure considering all they needed was to start the fire and then be convincing to Bernard and whatever authorities would arrive as a result. This would’ve happened regardless of Mike talking to Arthur in advance. So it feels a bit more likely that Mike’s investigation into Murro was separate from the plan to fake Murro’s death.

Which makes me wonder what led to his initial request to Arthur Russel about Murro. After all his time with Murro, did he finally have some sort of suspicion and want someone to find out? Or was it something else?

Going back to Joker, it seems Sergei’s acid attack against him happened around the same time as or shortly after the incident where Murro faked his death. The damage was so bad that Joker was unable to continue playing his clown role. Instead, Joker’s 2nd letter implies he had to become a woodcutter. Mike did notice afterwards that he’d lost a bottle of strong acid and suspected it as the cause of the damage to Joker’s face, as even Bernard thought it looked more like “corrosions”. Despite this, Mike’s only concern here is that he needs to replace the bottle before Bernard notices its absence. Bernard knew Mike was playing with dangerous materials, so if he knew Mike had lost some, he’d know Mike was at least partially to blame. Bernard has told Mike before he couldn’t use “hazardous” items (he wouldn’t punish Mike as badly as he would the others, but he likely would’ve done something).

Again, Mike appears more focused on himself than on the suffering of those around him. A truth he will be forced to confront at the manor. But for now, he continues to live in his ignorance. Maybe if he had paid more attention or cared a little more, he could’ve attempted to prevent what was to come.

Joker initially didn’t know who put the acid in his makeup, only that it had “ruined his life forever”. However, he learns the truth one night from Sergei himself “in a fit of drunkenness” (Weeping Clown backstory trailer). This finally pushes Joker over the edge. It all came to a head on the day a “jamboree” (Murro’s 2nd letter) was to take place, a day when Natasha and Sergei were to be the “grand finale”.

The day before, Violetta invited everyone to a “rehearsal” but Bernard “forced me out to ‘calm down for a few days’”. Violetta was clearly excited and wanted to do her best, but was rejected by everyone, even the owner, who didn’t even give her the chance to perform that day despite her desire to. Regardless of how disappointed Violetta would’ve been, this did allow her to escape the tragedy that was to occur the next day.

On the day of the carnival, Mike had to leave the circus for a period of time to replace the acid he’d lost earlier. As a result, he was also absent when the tragedy occurred.

Before the chaos would really begin, we know Natasha escaped by jumping into the river according to Moonlit River Park’s backstory.

This same backstory also mentions that Barriere built the park “10 years ago”. As it became more profitable, he opened a haunted house and contracted Hullabaloo to perform there. We don’t know exactly how long it was there before the tragedy, but it does imply the circus went there not too long after visiting Lakeside. They were there for no more than 10 years before the tragedy ended it.

I do wonder if Joker had spoken to her, as the deduction right before he confronts Sergei is a deduction mentioning Natasha had “left”. I don’t think he told her what he was about to do, but it’s possible he at least encouraged her to flee. That or Margaretha fled after another bad argument with Sergei.

Whatever the case, Joker on that day kills Sergei (Joker’s relations chart) and takes his “face”. Whether this was before or during, in the end, Joker massacres everyone at the park that day, including Bernard. From Moonlit River Park’s backstory (as well as the beta version of Smiley Face), we know his weapon of choice was a chainsaw. He killed everyone who worked at the circus as well as the audience that’d come for the show that day, who were unable to escape due to the “locked gates” and “towering walls”.

News of the tragedy destroys Mike upon his return from his shopping trip. From then on, he focuses completely on revenge against the culprit. It is with this in mind that he goes to the mortuary to identify the bodies. From Mike’s 6th letter, we see there were 16 “unclaimed” bodies. These would be the circus staff, as all others would’ve belonged to the audience and have already been claimed by their family. Bernard likely took in at least some orphans and those given away by their parent, which would explain none of them being claimed yet.

1 of the bodies is the “Faceless” referenced in Joker’s 1st letter. Mike seems unconvinced (Hullabaloo’s deduction 1) this “Faceless” is Joker though, as despite looking at the bodies for quite some time, he asks the person handling them if any had a limp. This combines with Joker’s 1st letter, where Arthur tells Mike that the “Faceless” didn’t have Joker’s acid burn before suggesting Sergei could be the Faceless.

"A Page of Names: Almost all are crossed out, save for Natalie and Sergi. There is also a small question mark next to Joker's name."

Mike has Arthur Russell investigate Natasha, who’s changed her name from Natalie to Margaretha Zelle now. Russell is able to locate an actress who “closely resembles” her “except for the hair color” (which she likely changed at the same time as her name).

(Margaretha joining a theater as an actress after the Hullabaloo tragedy sounds quite similar to Kroto joining a different troupe after the incident at Golden Rose Theater.)

From Margaretha’s backstory and her 6th letter, we see she wasn’t exactly earning very much. It states her income has never been “stable” since losing Sergei, as well as describes her as “thinner” (and has been “very ill”, likely in part due to the lack of money).

Speaking of Margaretha, after escaping from the circus and Sergei, she sends a letter to her aunt and uncle, apologizing for running away how she did. However, this letter is labeled as “unclaimed”. We know Eugene and Marjorie are burned alongside Volcker (who’d been investigating the cultists rituals and was allowed to live in her aunt’s and uncle’s house with them) after all 3 are branded “blasphemers” for their “curiosity” (Hastur’s 2nd letter) (Marjorie we know had also attempted to “secretly observe” the sacrifices based on Fiona’s 1st letter). Therefore, by the time of the Hullabaloo tragedy, her aunt and uncle had already been killed. (Unknown whether the whole village had disappeared by this point, but it’s possible.)

Similarly, Mike was also able to track Joker: “a smiling clown passed through here about six months ago. He was neither handsome nor particularly energetic, which led to his dismissal. Physically, he had a noticeable limp, which he claimed was due to a woodworking accident. However, I suspect there might be more to the story. He seemed like a man beset by misfortune” (Hullabaloo deduction 3). Joker confirms this later at the manor as he said he did participate in “some shows” and has worked as a “carpenter”, connecting to the comment about “woodworking”.

Mike continues his investigation for the culprit, to the point one of those he had been working with told him “I have answered many of your questions. If your urgency is as pressing as you say, why not investigate the truth yourself?” (Hullabaloo deduction 6). Considering we know Arthur Russell has worked with Mike, Russell was likely the speaker here too. It could also make sense when remembering Russell is also involved with the Lakeside Village investigation, so he would’ve been quite busy at this time, especially as we know Volcker has already disappeared.

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At the Manor

Eventually, Mike is invited to the manor, the motivation being the photo of Margaretha he was sent. Margaretha herself had headed to the manor to become a “millionaire”. Murro had already wound up there some time after his faked death, while Violetta was offered the chance of performing on a “new stage” after her old employer (Max) “turned her down” (Violetta’s backstory). Violetta, when she learned of the tragedy, likely needed work and hoped Max would accept her back. He did not, but we also learn he was eventually arrested after an attack against him leads to the discovery he was involved with human trafficking, with Max’s performers separating soon after.

When Mike arrives at the manor, he finds Violetta is already there. She shows him the playbill for the show the owner will have them involved in: “Five children go to the park. They arrive excited but leave with long faces...” It goes on to describe the roles of the other children, which are likely the same ones described in Joker’s 4th letter.

“The second child shuts their mouth, a single sound means being found. The third child burns with anxiety, after all, we are family. The fourth child makes a suggestion, the naughty one gets rejection. The fifth child falls unconscious, it must be the sun's accidental malice. Those slow-witted fools fail to realize that the first child has already gone ahead”

After Mike, Margaretha arrives. Her room ends up having what appear to be Vera’s perfume bottles.

The 1st she says smells of “lily of the valley” and is “comforting”, the 2nd she compares to “trees roasting in the sun”, but the last, which has a “damp smell”, she doesn’t like. Lily of the valley was 1 of the ingredients on the drug list, so we know these perfumes are likely actually drugs (which Vera’s Euphoria was either way). Meaning, Margaretha probably shouldn’t use these.

She sprays herself with one of them to help her sleep and ends up having a nightmare involving Sergei. In the morning, she sprays herself with more before running into Mike, who quickly mocks her about how she’s always running away. She tells him to move on “like the rest of us” to which he calls her (and others) “you shameful liars, deserters, you murderers”.

Mike as we can see cannot move past Hullabaloo, nor his anger at whoever caused the tragedy. He’s quick to jump on anyone he sees as suspicious, and right now that’s Margaretha.

When she leaves, Joker enters and gets angry at hearing Mike call her a “charlatan, deserter” and likely about to suggest she may be a murderer too before Joker harshly denies that.

It’s then that Murro appears, informing us the snow will keep everyone at the manor for some time.

Next we see Violetta talking about the massacre, but making it clear she’s very enthusiastic about being able to perform again. Mike snaps at her for talking about the tragedy. Violetta repeatedly apologizes while Murro comforts her.

Murro is clearly 1 of the few people Mike is almost always nice to.

The scene changes to Margaretha, who sprays herself with more of the perfume when she begins hallucinating again. Upon leaving her room, she finds the others listening to Smiley Face Polka while Joker dances. Everyone stops when Violetta calls Joker Sergei, as does Margaretha before correcting herself. Soon after, she hallucinates both Joker and Violetta as their hunter forms. Murro manages to calm her down though.

At this point, it seems the perfume she’s spraying with may be the Siren’s Song drug, which causes hallucinations (the same drug likely used on Jose’s father and crew before their ship sunk due to everyone hallucinating about monsters).

Murro asks what everyone’s been doing as they eat a meal, which is when we hear Joker mentioning he’s been with various wandering troupes and occasional carpentry jobs to make ends meet, while Margaretha joined a theater company.

They’ve all been attempting a “fresh start”. All except Mike, who is unable to move forward. Like Orpheus in the myth, he can’t stop himself from looking back.

It’s at this point that Mike tells them about another note he found, left by the manor owner. This time, it’s the Lizzie Borden nursery rhyme, the one referenced in Joker’s 4th letter and Hullabaloo’s deduction 8.

“Lizzie Borden took an axe, and gave her mother forty whacks. When she saw what she had done, she gave her father forty-one.” “Lizzie Borden got away—for her crime she did not pay.”

And he uses this opportunity to once again ask about who caused the massacre. He says he wants to find the person who destroyed “our” home. He doesn’t realize yet the only person who saw that place as home was him. A point Margaretha brings up when she says “we all hated that place, Mike Morton. All of us but you”.

When Mike asks Murro and Violetta about the new playbill, neither of them know anything, with Violetta emphasizing “I just want to perform with everyone”. She does inform Mike that she was the first to arrive, after which was Mike, Joker, Margaretha, and then finally Murro.

After Violetta leaves to get ready for the performance, we see her in the greenhouse saying “We will forget everything and gain new life”. We first saw this in Violetta’s 4th letter, which she says was from the nursery rhyme in the letter. Meaning the manor owner was the one to include this (and thus it is relevant to their upcoming “performance”). She is interrupted by a figure in a black cloak, a description we heard earlier when Margaretha said she told everything to the investigators, including seeing a man in black.

We know this is Joker, and this scene ties to Joker’s 3rd letter, which describes Joker luring Violetta away before removing her prosthetics and leaving her to die in the snow. Shortly after this scene, we learn he had brought her out into the forest before sawing off her prosthetic limbs. Murro’s partner luckily managed to find her and help keep her warm until Murro was able to bring her in with Mike’s help to stop her from succumbing to hypothermia.

Margaretha is suspicious of Joker, considering the markings left on Violetta’s limbs, as we heard earlier Joker was the only one who knew how to use a saw.

Murro continues to take care of her, and after some time, she is able to tell him about the man in black. When he tells Mike this, he comments on Margaretha also seeing a man in black going into the large tent before the tragedy. When Mike asks if Murro thinks Margaretha was telling the truth, Murro says “she isn’t a talented actor… At least not in the eyes of most people. And she does not have any reason to lie” (an interesting comment that could have tie to Kroto, and explain why she was given the role of animal tamer).

Murro goes to ask Margaretha and Joker if they’d be willing to participate in the performance to cheer up Violetta. As he does so, he happens to see Margaretha going to talk to Joker. He eavesdrops on their conversation, during which Margaretha seems to agree with Joker in describing the others (or at least just Mike) a “threat” but “it was not my fault”, before asking him why he doesn’t think it was “just a performance”. He compares it to the day of the tragedy, which she says was a disaster. He counters by pointing out she’s free now, but she says it’s only “until Sergi comes back”, which is why she’s come to the manor.

Margaretha doesn’t yet know Sergei is dead.

Before Margaretha leaves Joker’s room, we hear him give her something. This should be the music box from Joker’s 4th letter. In this letter, Joker questions who left the Lizzie Borden nursery rhyme, as he knows it’s a hint meant to point towards Joker being the killer. He also comments on having noticed the perfume in Margaretha’s room and can tell “it’s clearly not something just for woman” and “luckily, she hasn’t noticed yet”. We can combine this with Weeping Clown’s deduction 8 for an explanation: as it mentions the music box “with a faint scent of perfume”. The line after the title for this deduction is “Let us forget the past and start anew”.

While Margaretha is looking at the playbill at night, we see a flashback of Margaretha talking to Joker, where he explains his actions were intended to fulfill the conditions listed in the playbill. After the flashback, Joker comes into Margaretha’s room. This may correspond to Margaretha’s 2nd letter, when she discusses her fear of Mike and asks to meet Joker once everyone’s asleep. While there, after seeing Margaretha holding her head, Joker sees her use the perfume on herself. She says it has a calming effect. Then she turns on the music box. She ends by saying they should finish the show and get out of here.

Like in Margaretha’s 3rd letter, it seems this may be when Margaretha “went back to her old ways, using her beauty and frailty to seek sympathy and protection from others”.

It's at this point Joker puts the black cloak again and, after taking the perfume on the far right (the one that smelled “damp”), lures Violetta from her room to the greenhouse. Violetta sees a vision of herself (happily) appearing on stage (with a body lacking prosthetics), being congratulated, before freezing to death.

She appears to be hallucinating like Margaretha has been, except the symbol underneath the perfume bottle Joker took is the symbol for Mnemosyne/Dionysus. This drug makes a person forget, which makes sense considering Vera created Euphoria for the purpose of making herself forget causing her own sister’s death (Vera wants to be happy, reminiscent of how Violetta looks happy in her final moments).

When the others find her body that morning, Margaretha notices Violetta looks happy, as well as the scent of perfume on her (despite the earlier scene showing the bottle on the far right with the damp smell missing, Margaretha says it smells like trees roasting in the sun, which was the middle bottle). She is quickly suspicious of Joker, as she remembers his comments about fulfilling the conditions of the playbill.

Next, she spots the golden ball Violetta is holding once Joker enters the greenhouse. In it are envelopes with the same trees roasting in the sun smell. A poster also within the envelope tells them the performance will be held 3 days from then, and whoever makes it through midnight will get their wish. Also in the envelope is a card with a keyword on each. For Margaretha, it’s “exit”.

It's interesting we see the use of keywords here, as we know from Jose’s letter that keywords were used in game 5 as well.

It's at this point that Margaretha’s 4th letter occurs. She knows Joker killed Violetta and blames herself for telling him about the perfume. She’s scared she’ll become his next target and tells herself she refuses to let him fool her twice. Also in this letter, she admits her hallucinations are getting worse, which should be due to her frequent applications of the perfume.

The next scene we see is everyone walking into Moonlit River Park for the “performance”. Margaretha is wearing the coat she bought from the pawnshop in her 6th letter. While investigating the park, Mike, Murro, and Margaretha each solve a cipher machine using their keyword, which causes part of a nursery rhyme to play that essentially describes each of them. Joker and Margaretha are told by Mike and Murro the rehearsal was about to begin. When they get to the theater, Mike is pretending to be Sergei, causing Margaretha to get very afraid, but Joker knows this isn’t really Sergei. However, this was a trap set by Mike and Murro, as the only person who would really know Sergei is dead was the one responsible for the massacre (the police believe Sergei to be alive due to a mistake caused by a friend of Mike’s).

Joker gets angry when confronted by Mike, telling him he doesn’t understand, as he still doesn’t realize he is the only one who thought Hullabaloo was home. The rest of them hated it. Mike calls him a liar, but again Joker emphasizes Mike’s lack of understanding. Mike always had so much fun on stage and so didn’t pay enough attention to everything else going on around him. After getting upset at Margaretha, calling her a liar, he says “we… should all die” before going after them with his chainsaw. The hallucinations caused by the perfume make Margaretha see Joker as his hunter form (Smiley Face). She thinks he’s going to attack her, when in fact he’s trying to stop her from jumping into the river and freezing to death. After seeing him turn into Sergei, she refuses to “[go] back” before jumping in, leading to her death.

Mike and Murro appear before Joker’s able to jump into the river after her. Mike decides to give up on revenge, but while they step away to try to find an exit, he escapes to follow after Margaretha, sharing her fate. From here we get Mike’s 3rd and 4th letters. Mike has realized the truth about his Hullabaloo.

“Call me stupid if you want. It took that incident to make me realize that this so-called family of ours is no better than a stinking sewer. Only after tearing apart the veil on it was I able to realize that it was infested with mediocrity, jealousy, and blood. Don't ask me why I'm doing this. As much as I am absolutely disappointed in that place, I still wish to seek the truth. It's more than an end to it for me — it's closure. I've even prepared a grand performance for it — an explosive performance! Bernard was always against it due to safety concerns, but he failed to realize that burning up in a sea of flames is the best ending "Hullabaloo" could ever have!”

Before he enacts his final plan, we see flashbacks of everyone else who suffered at the circus. Sergei saying (maybe to Bernard) about Murro “He belongs with those animals”. Sergei abusing Margaretha. Violetta being rejected and alone. Joker after his face was corroded. And Mike, who “couldn’t face reality” anymore, decided to burn the entire park, and himself, to ashes.

Murro, the only survivor, was torn up inside after losing everyone. He wanted to be a hero but was unable to save anyone. He was alone once more. Now, he “lost his sense of belonging and fell into emptiness” (Murro’s 3rd letter).

Murro’s 4th letter implies he attempted find an escape from the manor through the forest sometime after this but was unsuccessful. Eventually, the participants of the next game arrive. This being William, Servais, Kurt, and Naib, the latter coming to the manor specifically in search of Murro. Murro, according to a page from Murro’s diary Kurt finds (during Kurt’s diary) talks about someone finding him and needing to “stay away from the people in this group”. On the last page, Murro states he needs to leave and would rather “freeze to death in the forest than fall into his hands”.

We learn during Naib’s diary that it was Naib who’d been the one to hide Murro’s diary where it was. Going to Naib’s character relations page, it shows that Naib murdered Murro, so it’s probable that Naib was the man Murro was trying to run from. Naib was after Murro due to a “mission”, likely the same one that made Naib telegram Arthur Russel that he’d found Murro. Arthur Russell had been the one initially tasked by Mike to collect info on Murro until Mike cancelled this request after Murro fakes his death. Naib likely continued the mission, especially after the Hullabaloo tragedy, potentially because he saw Murro as a person of interest if not the potential culprit.

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Character/Personality Analysis

Now, I want to talk a bit more about each character and the type of person they are.

I’m going to go in the same order as we started with, so first up is Murro. Looking at his 3rd letter (while keeping in mind Orpheus is an at least somewhat biased point of view, as he sees things in a generally negative light, compared to Alice who is more neutral/optimistic), Murro’s traits here are listed as “hero complex”, “lacking a sense of belonging”, and “identity crisis”.

For “hero complex”, we can see this easily when looking at how he left Hullabaloo, and then with his actions at the manor. Murro’s 2nd and 6th letters explain his desire for a “perfect exit worthy of a prince” that will make him look like a “legend”. For his plan, he perishes while attempting to save the props after having a fire set backstage. These are the tools the rest of the cast needed to perform their acts and be a star on stage. It was one of the only ways he knew how he could appear to help while making his escape from the circus without putting anyone (besides himself) in any real danger. But the better example is when Murro is at the manor with Mike and the others. He tries to help Violetta whenever someone is being harsh with her and when she nearly died from hypothermia after that 1st attempt. He helped carry her in, warm her up, check on her for anything she might need, and attempt to keep watch over her. Additionally Murro tries to help Mike solve the question of who is the true culprit, even aiding him during the trap they set for Joker.

As we see for his “inclination” in his 3rd letter, Murro is looking for “self-worth”. He doesn’t have a purpose, especially once he successfully escapes from the circus. Murro wanted to get far away from the source of his suffering and all the people that caused it, but what then?

This is where we get into his “lacking a sense of belonging” and “identity crisis”. Murro didn’t feel as if he fit into the rest of the “society”. The only people he knew were those that either hurt him, ignored him, or delighted in his suffering. That’s why he decided to go out into the forest and be with the wild boars. But he still didn’t “fit”. He wasn’t a “wild man”, but neither was he a star of the circus. He didn’t really know who he was either. Murro had always grown up around the circus, when his parents were alive and when he was with Bernard. And he’d just ran away from all of it. There was no one to tell him what to be anymore. So what did that leave him with? Who was “Murro” besides a mirror of Kaspar Hauser?

When Murro arrived at the manor, he found himself surrounded by familiar people once again. He wasn’t alone now. And there were other people there who were hurting and just trying to survive like he was. People who also suffered at the circus (besides Mike) or grew up at the circus like he had.

A hero is someone who helps the helpless, and that’s how he began to find purpose. In comforting Violetta. In assisting Mike with his investigation into the culprit. Murro found a way to be valuable to someone. Being a hero allowed him to do something with his life. It gave him an identity and a “mission”.

Murro was a man who managed to have a kind-heart and friendly personality despite how he’d been treated by everyone nearly all his life. Something I think that qualified him as heroic regardless.

Sadly, not every story has a happy end. Murro failed to stop Joker from finishing off Violetta, he wasn’t around to stop Margaretha from jumping into the river, he was unable to prevent Joker’s escape in order to share Margaretha’s fate, and he was unable to save Mike from himself. To him, heroes didn’t let people fall to despair. Neither did they let people die, especially not their friends. And he was helpless to stop any of it. He tried, he really had, but none of it mattered in the end.

Once again, he was alone. All those he’d ever known were gone, and with them his sense of “belonging”. His purpose was gone, and Murro was unable to stop the feeling of emptiness that flooded him. He could not pull himself out of that hole before meeting his demise.

Considering Murro’s final words in his diary, despite how Naib is labeled as having “murdered” Murro, I think there’s a good chance Murro willing went out to share Violetta’s fate before Naib could do the deed himself. Maybe he thought he could be heroic by trying to die on his own terms before anyone could do it for him.

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Speaking of Violetta, her traits are listed as “marginalized”, “blind kindness”, and “appeasing personality”. Violetta wasn’t born like everyone else, but she didn’t let her disabilities keep her down. She was kind to everyone regardless of how horrible she was treated. She was a tool for profit by those she worked for, and a monster to the audience that watched her. After acquiring prosthetics to help her get around and perform her acts, she was still described as “ugly” and a “freak”, even by the one described as her “best friend” at Max’s circus.

It’s no surprise her life was a challenge, even from the beginning. She was constantly struggling to survive. This I think is why she became someone who wants to please people, as it’s what she had to do all her life. She had to please Max and Bernard to try to keep her job, and she had to please the audience to earn money. She also had to get along with her coworkers, as otherwise they wouldn’t have bothered helping her stay alive when Max tried to starve her.

The other reason for her actions is because Violetta wanted a family. She wants love. She wants to be needed. It's why the 4th clue for her 5th birthday portrait references her “loneliness”. That’s why she works so hard to please Bernard. She herself didn’t care about money, but she knew it made Max happy, and if she could make him happy, she would have value. And if she could be picked for the main act of the new year, that would be proof to herself and everyone that he recognized her worth.

She wants to be seen as no different than anyone else, not pitied. She wants to be seen as more than the sum of her disabilities. That’s why she cared more about Max than her coworkers. Max was the only one who looked at her the same way he did everyone else. That was why she continued to try her hardest for him, even if that meant pain.

But it didn’t last, and the man she viewed as her father sold her to another circus. She goes to view this new place as her new family, but things don’t improve. Violetta enjoyed the stage, but I doubt Bernard would let her take center stage over someone like Mike. Not with how he sent her away to “calm down” after inviting people to a rehearsal, preventing her from being on stage that day, though this did save her from the tragedy.

At the manor, we do see her excitement and enthusiasm at the prospect of being able to perform once again (despite how many times she’s been rejected, so she likely felt this was one of her last chances).

There are a few points of note that give additional detail about her personality.

For starters, she is an extremely apologetic person. She will repeatedly apologize if she thinks she has upset someone. Likely from how she grew up under Max and later Bernard. This is why she tries to insist she’s ready for “rehearsals” and “will not make mistakes again” when at the manor, reminiscent of when Max forced her to balance atop balls after the audience grew bored of her other acts. We know Max was not a caring person. He was a cruel taskmaster that only cared about people in terms of how much money they earned him. It was due to her failures that Max sold her away. Her time at Hullabaloo went no better. She’s been hurt by rejections before and lost her ability to be on stage. She came to the manor for what might be her only chance. She doesn’t want to fail anyone again. She doesn’t want to be hurt again.

She’s also quite meek and isn’t always able to speak up or express her opinions to the others (especially when it comes to Mike).

From here, we can see how hard she’s trying to prove her value as well as just how much she wants to be a performer again, and this time I think it’s for herself, as Max or Bernard are no longer around. I think she genuinely enjoys acting, but she also wants to continue being able to please people, and entertaining an audience is how she can do this. She finds value in being able to make people happy. It’s her “mission”.

But this whole idea further points to Violetta’s lack of self-esteem, similar to Murro. She enjoys performing but also doesn’t seem nearly as confident in her abilities as the others. That’s why she wants to perform again. She needs to see how others receive her to determine how good she is. That’s why she asks Murro “does that not prove my performance was utterly convincing?” despite her the sudden mention of the tragedy not being received well by Mike.

This event also shows us that Violetta can be prone to touching on people’s sensitive points. She kind of does this again later when she calls Joker Sergei, which triggers Margaretha and her hallucinations (Mike reacts to). The reason I believe is Violetta’s lack of social education or experience, considering everyone tends to avoid her due to her appearance. What interactions she does have comes in relation to her performances, and even with her coworkers, her 6th letter implies they weren’t so close as to be overly familiar with her. Besides Barbara who, as we’ve discussed, wasn’t exactly the best.

In any case, Violetta’s end comes after being drugged by Joker. It causes her to see the one thing she’s always wanted. First, she looks “normal”, she’s the same as everyone else. Second, she’s on stage again and able to dance upon it to her heart’s content. Finally, and most importantly, everyone is congratulating her. She’s being recognized for her talent, everyone can see her, and everyone’s happy for her. It’s just sad that this is no better than a dream. It never actually happens, but it does bring Violetta some peace before succumbing to the cold.

She dies holding onto the golden ball, which connects to the red ball from her 5th clue in her 5th birthday portrait, the thing that was her only belonging and her only “companion”. A final source of comfort that helped remind her of her achievements and push back the feelings of loneliness, just like the hallucination does.

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Next is Margaretha. Her key traits are “seeks sympathy” and “convergence of many identities”, while her inclination is “a self-important woman teetering on the edge of fantasy”.

This need for “many identities” stems from a place similar to Martha Behamfil’s. She’s not happy with who she is and wants more than she has. For Martha, she wanted to be able to join the Air Force to fly in the sky as a pilot, not be just a simple housewife. For Margaretha, she’s wants to see the world outside of her tiny village, and experience the luxury she could never with the simple, poor life she had in the isolated village. This could also be potentially be due to how (if she was old enough when they left) she knows Lakeside isn’t her original home. She doesn’t feel like she belongs, and doesn’t want to fit in. Instead, she’d rather go out into the world and find where she that out for herself. She wants the freedom to choose, a freedom she didn’t have when she was under the thumb of her aunt and uncle.

However, she is ignorant to the outside world, but views it with a similar kind of fantasy and wonder as Mike does with Hullabaloo. It’s like a dream come true when she finally goes out on her own, but unfortunately, this isn’t a fairy tale, and the one she sees as her prince should not be trusted. It's a bit sad, but it seems Margaretha herself suspected this to some degree based on her 1st letter.

She knew he was the one that encouraged her to seek the “Big City”, she recognized that as manipulative. She may have only noticed because hindsight is 20/20, but I think she was definitely suspicious of his true personality after what happened with the Soothing Salt. Her uneasiness is explicitly stated in her deductions before she even gives the borscht to her aunt and uncle. She was worried how exactly the Soothing Salt would affect her aunt and uncle, thus why she “wanted to try” it. She admits she didn’t fully trust Sergei, but it was her desire to see more than what she could in that isolated village that convinced her. Once she escapes him though, she admits her immense guilt.

“I wasn't free of worries and hesitance when I left, but the empty promises made by Serge somehow suppressed them. I made my decision not because Serge is trustworthy but because if I don't, I'd perhaps regret it. Ironically, I am now regretting everything that happened since, and I deserve it.

Don't get me wrong, I am not regretting the decision of leaving Lakeside Village, but I deeply regret the way I left. I should've said good-bye as an upright person would. Instead, I chose to sneak out in the dark of night.

If you could forgive all my foolishness in the past, then please reply to this letter.”

It’s sad, but even though we know Eugene and Marjorie were dead by that point, Margaretha didn’t. And without a response, she wouldn’t think they forgave her. She’d think they hated her and wanted nothing to do with her, all the way up to including when she dived into the frozen river.

What’s worse is she says Sergei had been tearing up her letters, meaning she had been trying to reach out to them for awhile time but was prevented by him. By the time she was finally free of him, it was sadly too late.

Unfortunately, we also know even if she had stayed at Lakeside, it wouldn’t have gone much better for her (though at least it would’ve saved her those years of abuse).

Margaretha never needed to be self-reliant before that point. That’s why she reached out to her aunt and uncle first. When that didn’t work, she looked for someone nearby. That someone was Joker. I think Margaretha was seeking respite, but I do wonder if the other reason why she chose Joker was to purposefully spite Sergei. Joker loved Margaretha, and I doubt she was so blind as to not notice. She may have hoped to make Sergei jealous in an attempt to get back at him for the earlier argument that day.

This did cause Sergei to get mad, but Sergei also refused to let her think she had any power in that situation. Sergei likely did attack Joker out of some form of jealousy, but more than that I figure he needed to deal with Joker to show Margaretha that she had nowhere safe to run to. She was stuck with him and only him, and he wouldn’t let her escape.

But Margaretha has always had a desperate kind of courage and has always seized every opportunity presented to her due to her strong motivation. She goes wherever the wind blows, even though her behavior can sometimes be too rash lead her into trouble. Margaretha isn’t afraid of taking chances. She also refuses to let Sergei think he can’t escape him. Even if it meant jumping into a river.

We don’t have the details about how exactly that day went down, but Moonlit River Park’s backstory implies she jumped into the river before the tragedy had begun. Weeping Clown’s backstory implies Sergei was drunk that day, and Sergei is most abusive to Margaretha when he gets drunk. I think she had another argument with Sergei that day, which I think was the last straw for her to convince her she needed to leave, though before she did she saw the black hooded man enter the tent (Joker). Since we know the man in black is Joker, I want to think that means Joker wasn’t the one to encourage her to leave (and Margaretha and Joker never really imply such a thing happened anyways). It’s possible she at least saw the beginning of the tragedy before leaving, but if the backstory says she left before it started, I assume her reason was primarily due to Sergei and she made the decision to do so on her own.

Hullabaloo wasn’t a happy place for her. It wasn’t “home” like Mike saw it. So I don’t think it’s hard to see how she didn’t see anyone there as “family”. They were coworkers at best. She wasn’t attached to them. She is polite enough, but that’s it. She’s only at the manor to ensure she earns the money she needs to ensure her own survival. We don’t see her trying to make friends like how Murro and Mike are, or try to go out of her way to spend time with Violetta. She’s only with Joker as a partnership to reach the end of the game for the chance at the reward and ensure her own survival.

As for Mike, I only think she really started to dislike him after heir first encounter, when he revealed his distrust and utter disdain for her. Courage isn’t a lack of fear, but the ability to act despite it. Margaretha is afraid of Mike, but not so much as to freeze up. She does turn to Joker though, who still loves her even after all this time.

Regarding Joker, I’m not sure there ever was any hint to imply Margaretha loved him how he did her, though she had to have known he liked her. She was more concerned with staying alive, especially now that she’d seen how much Mike hated her. She knew he thought her to be the killer, so she was afraid of him killing her in revenge. So she turned to the 1 person she felt she knew would never turn on her. I think it is safe to say that she did lead him on to some degree. It’s fairly clear to see after reading her letter to Joker (2nd letter).

“Believe me when I say that I'm delighted to see you again!”

“You were so gentle!”

“I know it wasn't what you wanted—I definitely felt the same. We weren't the kind of people who would hurt others...”

“I don't know who else to turn to. You're the only person I could trust!”

“I 'm sure you've noticed it too the way that person looks at us...eyes full of disgust, even hatred...I don't want to go through the horrors again. So please, just trust me once more!”

Based on the language used, it’s not hard to see how this would’ve affected Joker considering we know how much Joker loved Margaretha. The question is how intentional it all was. Orpheus himself calls out how Margaretha “went back to her old ways, using her beauty and frailty to seek sympathy and protection from others” upon “recognizing” Joker. He even says she saw him as “a mix of hope, comfort, fear, and guilt”.

Life after she left the circus wasn’t a walk in the park. We know she wasn’t able to earn a “stable” income, wasn’t eating well, and did get sick as a result. She wants to be able to return to her aunt and uncle, but she never got a reply. The guilt over leaving them but seemingly not being forgiven eats away at her, causing her to grow more desperate. Then there’s how, even though she was making do on her own, she wanted to regain that taste of luxury (and stability) she had when she was with Sergei and the circus. That’s why she wants the large monetary reward from the manor owner.

Going back to her guilt over her aunt and uncle, it’s not hard to see why she’d seek to lean so heavily on Joker in the manor. He is one of the few pillars of support she has left, and she’s just wants to feel like her feet are on solid ground again, especially now that she feels she can never return to Lakeside. She is optimistic that she can make it out on her own, as she does say in her 6th letter “Perhaps, like that hatpin, my own life will find a new beginning”. However, I think her optimism stemmed from her own confidence as well as the opportunity presented by the reward offered by the manor owner. Encountering the Hullabaloo gang again shakes that optimism, especially due to the fear Mike instills in her and having to remember everything (especially Sergei) that had happened during her time at the circus.

What makes this complicated is Margaretha seems to already suspect Joker to be the culprit, and yet says nothing about her suspicions. She continues to work with Joker to ensure protection from Mike. But she again says nothing after she is able to determine that Joker killed Violetta. It’s not until Mike and Murro spring the trap on Joker that she speaks up.

She hurts Joker deeply when she does, which is multiplied by Mike forcing Joker to admit what he’d done. This causes Joker to break. He says Margaretha is “forever a liar”. Joker also comments on her “performance” being “awkward”. In other words, a bad liar, such that the only one who fell for her lies was the one who was so deeply infatuated with her he didn’t want to consider she didn’t love him back.

This is backed up by an earlier conversation between Mike and Murro. Mike asks Murro if Margaretha is “an honest person”, to which Murro responds “but we all know, Mike, that she isn’t a talented actor… At least not in the eyes of most people”.

Margaretha is a bad liar, and thus she also makes for a bad manipulator, as it isn’t hard for others to see what she’s actually trying to do.

Joker during this scene implies he knew the truth to some degree but went along with her lies because he wanted to believe. The same way Mike wanted to continue to believe Hullabaloo was the happy home that it never in fact was. Both Mike and Murro turn a blind eye to things that could destroy their dream, something that comes back to bite them in the end.

This isn’t Margaretha’s only flaw as, besides being a materialist, she is a bit too addicted to the perfume we know to be a drug. She seeks it out to help “calm” her, but we also see how it causes her to hallucinate Joker as Sergei. It’s quite similar to her reliance on Sergei and Joker, and just like how she’d misplaced her trust in Sergei, this misplaced trust in the perfume leads to her demise. Her end comes in a final refusal to her past with Sergei.

It's a bit interesting though that her end comes by jumping into a freezing river, considering the sacrifices that happened at Lakeside. Not saying this is any relevant at all, but I couldn’t help noticing the parallel (children that were likely sacrificed by throwing them into the lake, Margaretha drowning in the water in an attempt to find her “exit”).

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From Margaretha we go to Mike. The one Orpheus describes as a “naïve seeker of vengeance”. Mike’s inclination is “lost ‘family’ and inability to return to ‘Hullabaloo’”. This is the center of his entire character. Hullabaloo was his home, and the people there were his “family”. The circus was his entire world, one he was unable to live without. Even when he reunites with the survivors of Hullabaloo, he is unable to revel in the happiness he should’ve felt at seeing his “family” again. By that point, he’d been too overcome by sorrow and his desire for vengeance.

Not that he treated all of them as well as he should have if they were truly his “family”.

When we look at the final clue given for Mike’s 5th birthday portrait, it reads: “The crack beneath the shadow that would destroy everything is right behind him. Is he oblivious to it, or is he deliberately ignoring it?”. The shadow that would destroy Hullabaloo, the darkness that lurked beneath. Mike wasn’t oblivious, he just turned a blind eye to it. He knew, but wished to try to remain ignorant. To pretend he couldn’t see. To imagine that everything was alright.

He looked away from the signs of Sergei’s mistreatment of Margaretha. He ignored the brutal way Murro was treated by the man he viewed as his father. Mike did nothing to stop people from mistreating Violetta or assist her in ensuring she could do the 1 thing she loved.

But more importantly, he didn’t stop to consider why Murro would so desperately want to run away. Mike didn’t try to stop Sergei from continuing to hurt Margaretha. Mike didn’t try to argue against Bernard kicking Violetta out for a few days just because she wanted to do a rehearsal. And worst of all, after Joker’s face was corroded by Mike’s own acid, all we see is Mike’s concern over ensuring the bottle gets replaced so Bernard doesn’t blame Mike. He doesn’t comment on Joker’s condition or even seem to care how much pain Joker was in or even any thought of apologizing or addressing what happened at all.

Mike had the ability to do something, but he didn’t. Repeatedly. Even though Mike didn’t do anything “bad” himself, it is the fact that he did nothing that is his problem. A problem that would contribute to the inevitability of the tragedy

Mike is “childish and ignorant” just like Orpheus says in Mike’s 3rd letter. He grew up on the better side of things at the circus because of Bernard, who likely exposed him to not always the best values considering the type of man we know Bernard was. The circus was a place of fantasy and wonder, and Mike was surrounded by it for nearly his whole life. As such, it’s no surprise Mike possessed a childlike curiosity and naivety, as well as a childlike cruelty. He played with dangerous material to see what he could do with it, even when his father figure discouraged it. He didn’t always consider the consequences, or what might happen if something went wrong. His fun could come at other people’s expense. These traits weren’t helped by Bernard treating him like the star of the circus and the audience only raising his confidence even higher than it already was.

After the tragedy, Mike still has some of the same qualities, but added to the mix now are paranoia, suspicion, anger, and sorrow. At the same time, he’s lost a lot of his earlier childishness due to the trauma combined with the passage of time, though he’s also lost his ability to analyze objectively due to emotional instability.

We see this fairly early on, namely when Violetta mentions the tragedy, which greatly upsets Mike and causes him to lash out at her for bringing it up. But I think this reaction isn’t unreasonable (even though it still was wrong of him to do). Violetta surprised him suddenly with this topic without warning, a topic that was a very sensitive pain point that quickly triggered his anger and trauma. He had been focusing on revenge ever since the tragedy occurred, and this was the sole reason he came to the manor. He lost many of those he held dear, including the man who had adopted him and the only place he ever truly considered home. The topic of the tragedy is still a gaping wound for Mike, but even despite this, we did see him apologize to her later.

His desire for revenge is one of the only things keeping him going, and his primary target is Margaretha. In part this was due to her picture being the one the manor owner used to lure him to the manor. The other reason I believe is because her and Sergei were the newest additions to the circus, the ones who were there for the least amount of time before it all came down. This meant they were the ones Mike most saw as outsiders, the ones who weren’t “family” as much as Joker and Murro were, people who’d been there for many, many years before them. Therefore, the 2 of them were the ones Mike was most willing to consider suspicious.

Margaretha was the only one to have been there that day and manage to survive. Sergei was knocked from his list once Arthur Russell determined the “Faceless” was likely him. Joker had been there too, but it’s possible Mike thought Joker’s leg made him less capable of committing such a massacre. That and Joker was family, like Murro.

But even Orpheus points out Mike’s “quick-wit”. The tragedy destroys Mike, and despite the hit to his ability to rationalize due to his emotions, he is still quite intelligent. Considering how everything we’ve seen emphasizes how much time he spent investigating Margaretha and Joker especially, some part of him had to have suspected Joker.

As we said earlier, Mike deliberately turns a blind eye to the suffering he sees, but we know he has seen it based on near the end of the Hullabaloo event in game. Joker has had his leg amputated, his prosthetic broken, and his face destroyed by acid to the point he lost his job as the sad clown. Mike may not have known the full truth behind each of these events, but he should be able to realize these things could be ample motivations for him to be the culprit. Margaretha was abused, but Joker is the only one that knew how to use a saw. If Mike really was spending as long as his letter implies looking at the bodies, you’d think he would’ve noticed the types of wounds the dead bore, just like how the clean cuts on Violetta’s prosthetics made Margaretha suspicious.

(Unless, like in the live action trailer, Mike was only looking at the feet of each body, but still.)

Mike may have only learned this fact about Joker being able to use the chainsaw once he was at the manor, but that still should’ve meant he should’ve been able to start piecing this together much earlier than he did (only after Violetta dies, and definitely after his trap for Joker).

Honestly, I still think it came down to Joker being “family” while Margaretha and Sergei weren’t. It took Mike quite a while before he could finally accept the idea his home was destroyed by the very people he considered to be his “family”. It’s possible he could’ve used Margaretha being abused as enough “motivation” to lead her to murder, but while they’re at the manor, he doesn’t really mention this kind idea. Margaretha and Joker are the ones who have to drive into his head the fact that Hullabaloo was a place of suffering for all of them, except Mike. Mike didn’t even want to accept anything bad was happening until right before the end.

By the end, after confronting Margaretha, Joker, and the truth of Hullabaloo, Mike’s anger, paranoia, and desire for revenge vanish. Which until then had held back the despair, despair that now had nothing to stop it from consuming him. That and immense guilt. He had to have known finally that his own inaction and desire to ignore anything that would risk ruining the peaceful, happy image of Hullabaloo in his mind had contributed to where he was now. If he’d just stepped in at some point, it’s possible he could’ve kept things from getting as bad as they did. He could’ve helped their suffering sooner, and thus maybe kept Joker from falling to his breaking point. But he hadn’t. And there was no second chances. Everything he’d ever believed in his whole life was no more than a faraway memory.

It's sad that he felt he had nothing left, as despite all he thought he’d lost, he wasn’t completely alone. He still had 1 family member left, the 1 he was the closest too. He did admit “my only regret is that I could not travel to the great outdoors with you” in his 4th letter, but the guilt was too much for Mike. He couldn’t find it in himself to attempt to live for the 1 he had left. That to me seems like the saddest part.

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Last is Joker. His traits are listed as “pessimistic”, “inferiority complex”, and “fragile”. We also know he was born with a “mournful face” that made him the “best weeping clown”, parents that saw him as a “cash cow” and clearly didn’t truly love him as parents should, and a deformed leg that brought him constant pain.

This leg led to him frequently falling during performances, causing him “excruciating pain and severe bruising” to the point of requiring painkillers. But he required them so often that it “exacerbated the very imbalance and fragile nerves they were meant to soothe”. This was why he eventually decided to be parted from his own leg. This already gives us quite the inside view into Joker’s mental state if he was willing to amputate his own limb when it wasn’t required. It doesn’t help that taking so many pain killers could’ve also led to side effects (which also could’ve negatively affected his mental state even more).

Joker is also described as “submissive”, which would allow him to be taken advantage of by many people. It also meant he would’ve had a hard time speaking up for himself, similar to Violetta, whether to protest his situation or share his feelings with Margaretha.

This is where his “pessimism” and “inferiority complex: come in. He loved Margaretha, but he couldn’t stop from seeing himself as inferior to Sergei (and unworthy of Margaretha), and his pessimism only aided him in believing this idea. And as he is “fragile”, he would’ve been resistant to sharing his feelings for fear of the fallout when he was rejected. But he still wanted to hope and dream. The only thing he had was this love, and so he couldn’t get himself to discard it. Even when he knew she didn’t love him back, no matter how much he tried to ignore this truth. Until he couldn’t lie to himself anymore.

He had no friends or companions, had never been shown love, and experienced suffering every day. All Joker had was his own love for Margaretha and his job at Hullabaloo. The latter he would later find out to be Sergei, the same man who stood in the way of him being with Margaretha. Sergei, the man who also happened to be hurting the only other thing he cared about. His fragile mental state had been pushed over the edge, and there would be no going back from here. He refused to go back to how he used to be. So he took what he lacked from the one that had what he wanted, and replaced the face he’d lost with the one who’d taken it from him.

Joker didn’t want to be “sad” anymore, he wanted the permanent smile of the happy clown. He became more like Sergei once he had it. He didn’t have to submit to anyone anymore. Now, Joker needed to be in control. But taking on aspects of Sergei also meant, now that he’d already crossed the line once, he found himself turning to violence more frequently.

A need for control and a willingness to commit violence. These 2 things would be the catalyst that would lead to the downfall of the entire Hullabaloo group.

Once Joker was at the manor, he couldn’t help hoping this 2nd chance with Margaretha would finally give him what he wanted. So he sought to keep things as close to the playbill as he could, as that seemed to him to be the only way they’d be allowed to leave. This though was what led to the truth coming out about him being the killer, as well as to the end of his hope of being with the one he loved.

By then, there was nothing to hold him back. He let out everything he’d been holding in, to the one who couldn’t comprehend what he’d been through, and to the one who’d given him false hope since the beginning. The person he'd obsessed over for so long, who’d given his life meaning, had cheated on him twice. It drove him mad, enough to pull out the chainsaw and threaten to repeat the tragedy again. But despite his anger, he still couldn’t make himself hurt her.

Once he’d completely lost her, I think he was consumed by despair the same way Mike had been. He just chose to end things a different than Mike had.

Margaretha was the person he trusted the most, the person he loved the most, the person he gave everything to. She had betrayed him. And yet, he still chose to jump into the river after her. She was his lifeline, and without her, there was nothing left in this world to keep him from following her to share her fate.

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