#$sina

[trnpts]

U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks Tumble at Fastest Pace Since 2008

Read full article >

[estimize]

5 Stocks to Watch After the Market Closes Today

Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Palo Alto networks is one of many cyber security companies to have emerged in recent years. Like many of its peers, the company has suffered during earnings season from decelerating earnings and revenue growth. Shares have subsequently taken a beating, drawing down about 8% in 2016. Frequent product refreshes coupled with an expanding user base should continue to positively impact top line growth. Additional strength across all its markets and business segments will help as well. Nonetheless, decelerating revenue growth from weak IT spending and increased competition will likely result in slower growth.

Jack in the Box (JACK): JACK has consistently outperformed the broader restaurant industry in recent quarters thanks to the success of its namesake brand and Qdoba restaurants. Analysts are optimistic that the eatery can continue making gains from the ongoing strength in the quick service industry. Meanwhile, Chipotle’s woes over the past year have helped shift traffic trends towards mexican fast casual alternatives, particularly Qdoba. Shares have soared 32% in 2016 as JACK continues to improve its position in the overall restaurant industry. Furthermore, increased marketing, remodeling efforts and frequent menu innovations are all expected to drive top line growth. Management expects all these positive initiatives to contribute to comp growth of 1-2% for both Jack in the Box and Qdoba restaurants.

Sina (SINA): Sina has been in a position of strength this year despite weaker trends coming out of China. Shares are up 37% this year thanks to better than expected earnings in 2 of the past 3 reports. Analysts are optimistic the Chinese company can build on its success given its robust product pipeline and heavy investment in product development and marketing. That said, there still remains significant near-term headwinds that could stunt growth. Online search restrictions in the region along with stiff competition from the likes of WeChat and Alibaba will have an impact on traffic trends.

Brocade Communications (BRCD): It was recently announced that Broadcom agreed to purchase Brocade Communications for $5.5 billion. That deal was valued at about $12.75 per share, marking over a 50% premium from where Brocade had been trading the day prior. Naturally this afternoon's reports will be an afterthought to the comments management makes about the deal during the conference call. It is believed that the transaction will be centered around Brocade’s storage area network business which will compliment Broadcom’s existing offerings.

Dycom Industries (DY): The leading provider of administrative services to the telecom industry has been in a position of strength in recent quarters. Shares are up nearly 30% in the 2016 on better than expected reports and robust growth. Analysts at Estimize aren’t as optimistic that the company continue posting gains. Comparisons are expected to decline sharply from previously quarters which were as high as 100% growth on the bottom line and roughly 40% on the top. The divestiture of Google’s Fiber projected have greatly affected sentiment ahead of this upcoming report.

How do you think these names will report? Be included in the Estimize consensus by contributing your estimates here!

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Tuesday: Anadarko, CBOE, Interactive Brokers, lululemon and SINA

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

Anadarko Petroleum, Ticker: $APC

Anadarko Petroleum, $APC, pulled back with the selloff in Crude Oil the second half of 2014. But since December it has been trending higher in a broad rising channel. Last week looks to have marked another bottom in that channel, with a Doji reversal candle confirmed higher and then follow through Friday. The RSI turned back up and the MACD is turning toward a positive cross.

CBOE, Ticker: $CBOE

CBOE, $CBOE, retraced about 61.8% of the run higher from July to the peak in January before finding support. Since then it settled sideways for 2 months before starting back higher. The first leg consolidated in a bull flag and broke higher Friday. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising and the MACD also rising, both supporting more upside.

Interactive Brokers, Ticker: $IBKR

Interactive Brokers, $IBKR, has been trending higher since October 2014. The latest leg has been against rising tend support. It touched that again last week and turned back higher. The RSI and MACD are also both rising, supporting the upside continuation.

Lululemon athletica, Ticker: $LULU

Lululemon athletica, $LULU, based for a long time in 2014 before a jump higher started in December. That led to consolidation in a Diamond top that is currently breaking down. The RSI is in the bearish zone and the MACD falling as well.

SINA, Ticker: $SINA

SINA, $SINA, peaked in late 2013 and then pulled back throughout 2014. It finally found a bottom in April this year and made its first higher high to start May. Since then it has pulled back in a bull flag. It broke that flag to the upside Friday, and has support from a bullish RSI for more. The MACD has stopped falling as well and is leveling.

If you like what you see sign up here for how to trade these, more ideas and deeper analysis.  

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into the unofficial start of summer sees the equity markets looking positive and better in the longer timeframe than the shorter one.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to hold near 1200 while Crude Oil consolidates with an upward bias. The US Dollar Index is biased to the upside but it is still too soon to declare a reversal higher while US Treasuries are biased lower but showing signs of consolidation. The Shanghai Composite is moving higher in renewed strength and Emerging Markets are biased to the downside in the uptrend, debating whether it is a bull flag or a reversal.

Volatility looks to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts agree with that on the weekly timeframe, but show better strength on the SPY and QQQ on the daily timeframe than in the IWM. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

More at Dragonfly Capital

[estimize]

Growth of Weibo Expected to Fuel Sina Earnings on Wednesday

Sina Corp. (SINA) is set to report FQ1 2014 earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, May 21st. Sina is a Chinese online media company which operates Sina.net and micro blogging website Sina Weibo which is similar to Twitter. Sina stock has been plummeting since  early January highs and has now fallen 47% this year. According to a pre-announcement from the company itself revenue is expected to come in around $171 million with much of the growth coming from increased monetization of Weibo. This quarter Wall Street expects earnings to come in 2 cents higher per share than last year and for revenue to grow year over year by 35%. Here’s what investors expect from Sina on Wednesday.

The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize.com platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.

(Click Here to see Estimates and Interactive Features for Sina)

The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for Sina to report 4c EPS and $169.59M revenue while the current Estimize.com consensus from 16 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is 8c EPS and $169.6M in revenue. This quarter the buy-side as represented by the Estimize.com community is expecting Sina to report in-line with Wall Street’s revenue consensus but exceed earnings expectations by 4c per share.

Over the previous 6 quarters the consensus from Estimize.com has been more accurate than Wall Street in forecasting Sina’s EPS and revenue 5 times and twice respectively. By tapping into a wider range of contributors including hedge-fund analysts, asset managers, independent research shops, students, and non professional investors Estimize has created a data set that is more accurate than Wall Street up to 69.5% of the time.

More importantly it does a better job of representing the market’s actual expectations. It has been confirmed by Deutsche Bank Quant. Research and an independent academic study from Rice University that stock prices tend to react with a more strongly associated degree to the expectation benchmark from Estimize than from the Wall Street consensus.

The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. Here we are seeing a larger than usual differential in earnings expectations but no difference in revenue projections.

The distribution of earnings estimates published by analysts on the Estimize.com platform range from 5c to 22c per share and from $160.00M to $171.50M in revenues. This quarter we’re seeing a wide range of estimates on Sina.

The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution of estimates signals less agreement in the market, which could mean greater volatility post earnings.

Throughout the quarter the Wall Street EPS consensus fell from 25c to 4c while the Estimize consensus dropped from 14c to 8c. Meanwhile the Wall Street revenue consensus remained flat at $169.59M while the Estimize consensus rose from $167.23M to $169.6M. Timeliness is correlated with accuracy and the directionality of analyst estimate revisions going into an earnings report are often a leading indicator.

The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is turbinecity who projects 6c EPS and $170.19M in revenue. turbinecity was our Winter 2014 season winner is ranked 2nd overall among over 4,450 contributing analysts. This season turbinecity has been more accurate than Wall Street in forecasting EPS and revenue 60% and 51% of the time respectively throughout a massive 1,073 estimates.

Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. In this case turbinecity expects Sina to beat the Estimize revenue consensus but come up short against the community’s EPS forecast.

While all eyes on Chinese web businesses are focused on the upcoming Alibaba IPO, the growth of Weibo has fueled earnings growth for SINA while the company’s stock has been getting crushed. This quarter Sina’s earnings per share will need to come in at 8c, double Wall Street’s projection of 4c just to satisfy the expectations of the Estimize community. For now Sina remains another online company with a high price to earnings ratio of 73, and the market has not been kind to those companies lately.

Get access to estimates for Sina published by your Buy Side and Independent analyst peers and follow the rest of earnings season by heading over to Estimize.com. Register for free to create your own estimates and see how you stack up to Wall Street.

[juntly-blog]

SINA - 2 possible scenarios

We have broken out of a short term downtrend, but have reached a major technical resistance. The technical resistance comes on the back of: (1) the diagonal trendline drawn from the base of the months-long rally, and (2) short term price resistance.

I would otherwise be bullish as I would suspect a rally once the debt deal blows over, along with this week's European scare. However, I don't know how much longer we can prolong these worries, just to have them come back to haunt us every few weeks.

Note also that this rally has come with a descending trend in volume and increasing short interest.

I'm not suggesting to get out of this stock as it is a "market darling", but I can't in good conscience say that this is a good buying opportunity.

[juntly-blog]

SINA

[juntly-blog]

SINA and YOKU doing alright too

All the cheerleading during the upswings and verbal assaults during the downswings has made me realize it's likely time to start accumulating these stocks.

While stocks often drop in a straight line, they don't go up in a straight line for too long -there's a funny form of gravity in the stock markets. Despite a pullback, the kids are fine!

As I've mentioned previously, I feel that YOKU offers a better risk-reward ratio than SINA at this point.

If you're a swing trader, all that matters it that you profit from a stock move - you're not marrying the stock. This means that if you're a swing trader, there is no need to listen to the fundamental analysts from various forums as they beat on the earnings potential or declining momentum of revenue. Instead, listen to the price movement and volume - the rest is just noise.

Didn't the fundamental analysts get us into this mess in the first place? Technicians saw the recession and downturn coming months in advance. Some even shorted it on the way down.

[juntly-blog]

SINA Recap

Nice run today on SINA with an expansion in volume. Overhead resistance at ~$95, then ~$99. As the market bounces from here, leadership from the risk-on sectors signals strength.