#$udnt

[allstarcharts]

Here’s What I Think About The US Dollar

This is something we need to talk about.

First, let me start by admitting that I don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, or even later today. I have no idea what the price of anything is going to be in the future. And I’m okay with saying that because no one else does either, regardless of how enthusiastic they might seem about their “calls”.

With that said, what’s up with the United States Dollar? You guys know that I look at currencies and commodities and global indexes the same way I look at the S&P500 and $AAPL. To me it’s all just letters and math. No emotions with me. So yes, for years and years I’ve tracked the US Dollar and if/when I see something I’ll comment on it like I would any stock or US index. But whenever I’ve ever said anything about the Dollar, no one has cared. Literally, no one. I say one bad thing about Bank of America, however, and the hate mail comes flooding in. That’s just the way it is.

These days every email or phone call that I get from media outlets is about the US Dollar. I’ve never ever seen anything like this. We’ve gone from an asset no one cares about, because it’s not “sexy”, to everything that moves is because of the US Dollar. I’m amazed. I really am.

We all know that “news” follows price. That’s obvious. But this is now getting ridiculous. The US Dollar has gone parabolic. Fine. But now it has to be the topic of every conversation? Funny, last May when I loved the US Dollar no one cared. No one. Not a single person. Now? Everyone.

I’m not saying that we have to short the US Dollar today, or tomorrow or ever. But anecdotally I’ve never seen such consensus bullishness towards US Dollars. The actual data we look at suggests the exact same thing as we are at the most bullish sentiment levels on record while commercial hedgers, or the “smart money”, are hedging like if the Dollar is going to zero. Something’s up guys.

I was at a happy hour this week with some really smart guys. You know a lot of them, but I’m not going to mention any names. The Dollar was the topic of conversation….shocking I know.

Here’s what I think: Wisdomtree has made quite the name for itself by creating vehicles that investors can profit from a particular country’s increasing stock market prices, while at the same time providing a hedge against that nations deteriorating currency. Japan in 2013 and Europe more recently are good examples. The symbols are $DXJ and $HEDG which go long Japan & Europe respectively, while hedging against their falling currencies, Yen and Euro. These ETFs have both given investors incredible returns. They have done much much better than their Dollar denominated counterparts like $EWJ or $FEZ for example, which mirror similar indexes, but without the currency hedge.

I think the next one is the hedged United States ETF. People think I’m crazy. I probably am, but for other reasons. But this one is coming.

Just thinking out loud here, but I really do think this is going to be a big winner at some point in the near future. I hope Wisdomtree is listening. Give it the ticker symbol $SPXJ. I’m in.

Also see:

The US Dollar Just Hit An Important Upside Objective (3-11-15)

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[jeffhirsch]

Seasonal forces tend to blow euro into the wind last half of March

Euro-in-the-wind image courtesy of Paul Rousso

Seasonally speaking, in the 16-year history of the euro, we see a tendency for the euro to head lower against the U.S. dollar on or about the eleventh trading day in March through the end of the month. Theory suggests this has worked in the past due to the fact that multinational conglomerate corporations based here in the United States repatriate funds before the end of the first quarter, and this has a tendency to depress prices in the first quarter. This trade has been successful 62.5% of the time since 1999, posting gains in ten of the last sixteen years.

With the euro under pressure from the new the accommodative policies of the European Central Bank, rates across the euro zone plunging, tensions among euro members, and lackluster growth across the region, seasonal forces may conspire with fundamentals and current events to push the euro even lower before month end. The strong dollar and weak euro may put pressure on US stocks as money flows toward cheaper international equities and the higher yield of US Treasuries.

[allstarcharts]

The US Dollar Just Hit An Important Upside Objective

With all of the hoopla surrounding the US Dollar these days, I think it’s important to address the fact that on Wednesday US Dollar Index Futures achieved a key upside objective based on its consolidation throughout January and February.

Here is a chart showing 2-hour candlesticks going back to mid-January. These intraday timeframes allow us to get a better idea of what is happening throughout the trading day, but the daily timeframe shows the same thing. On Wednesday the Dollar Index hit its 261.8% Fibonacci extension target of that consolidation:

Will that be the top? No one knows. But it is certainly an important level where I would be a seller. I have seen many tops and bottoms come from these levels. It’s hard for me to ignore this.

If that was it, I would imagine that the biggest beneficiary would be the Euro, who has been crashing throughout this entire US Dollar rally. Remember that the Euro represents close to 60% of the US Dollar Index.

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[marketanthropology]

On the Dark Side of the Dollar

Further shamed by the US dollar's recent advance, the Inflationistas - circa 2010, were paraded out on stage last week, shackled to their failed beliefs that the policy accommodations initiated during the financial crisis would rue the day. Considering the conceit for which many had expressed that opinion at the time and general reluctance to reflect on what went wrong today, it comes as no surprise that the Statler and Waldorf's of the world are now relishing a tender schadenfreude sirloin, that has been marinating slowly for years. 

Having said that - and picking up on the socionomic theme in our last note, the degree of confidence by the policy advocates today practically matches the swagger the Inflationistas embodied in the Spring of 2011. If the markets have taught us anything over the years is that those with the loudest cheers and sneers typically mark a turning point in correlation with those beliefs. The performance overlap with any given dogma - especially inflation expectations, cycles like the moon. Full, slowly transitions to crescent - and then back to new. Nevertheless, we remain on the dark side of the moon, in constellations such as precious metals and have watched the long victory trot enter what we suspect will be it's final turn. 

Echoing the inverse market psychology and pulling the disinflationary tide, has been the Herculean strength of the US dollar, that extended its record streak to 12 consecutive higher weekly closes - to the boisterous belly laughs of the policy wonks. Conspicuously, this show of strength has resurrected the mantle in the market and the media as - King Dollar, with the obvious understanding that it's dominance has only just begun. My have we come a long way from the new moon of the dollar cycle low in late April of 2011, where many of the same players and pundits openly declared the dollar crisis in full swing and just getting started. Back then, the mood in the markets were decisively dimmer, from both the usual suspects - to the ominous warnings from leaders in the private sector that the US consumer would soon face "serious" inflation in the months ahead. 

"Except for fuel costs, US consumers haven't seen much in the way of inflation for almost a decade, so a broad-based increase in prices will be unprecedented in recent memory" - Bill Simon, then CEO of Walmart - Walmart CEO Bill Simon Expects Inflation - USA Today 4/1/2011

A few weeks later the dollar bottomed, commodities topped and the waning crescent of inflation expectations began making its way to where it now presides - on the dark side of the dollar. Coincidentally, it was also a 10% move (lower) in the US dollar index in 2011 that engendered the runaway inflation hysteria and parabolic moves in assets such as silver. Of course today one could argue that the same market structure and psychology can be found in the dollar itself this time around.