A new poll, which surveys voters who will partake in the New Jersey and Virginia governor races, found that voters were not impressed with R
Erin Reed at Erin In The Morning:
Two pivotal governor’s races—New Jersey and Virginia—will be decided by voters tomorrow, and in both contests, transgender rights have taken center stage. Republican candidates have poured millions into anti-trans and anti-LGBTQ+ ads, betting that fearmongering will move the electorate. But a new poll from AtlasIntel, a well-rated pollster, suggests the strategy may be backfiring: both Democratic candidates are leading, and voters say they prefer the Democrats’ approach to transgender rights over their Republican opponents’. According to the poll, when voters were asked who has a better approach to transgender rights, Democratic Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger led Republican opponent Winsome Earle-Sears by double digits, with 53 percent favoring her stance. In New Jersey, Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill also holds a commanding lead on the issue—52 percent of voters prefer her approach compared to just 32 percent for Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Both Democrats are ahead overall, with Spanberger polling at +9 and Sherrill narrowly leading at +1. This poll is the latest in a string of surveys suggesting that anti-transgender attacks may be losing traction this election cycle. The ads flooding the airwaves this year closely resemble those that dominated the 2024 races—some even reuse the same talking points. Virginia’s Winsome Earle-Sears has borrowed lines verbatim, including “Spanberger is for they/them, not us,” in a reprise of the bathroom panic playbook. Once credited (somewhat questionably) as an effective wedge in 2024, the strategy now appears to be running out of steam.
[...] The poll results arrive at a moment when “centrist” groups are urging Democrats to distance themselves from transgender rights—and when even figures like California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom are wavering. Yet if these numbers show anything, it’s that abandoning trans people isn’t just morally indefensible; it’s politically misguided. The idea that winning requires exclusion has never been true, and the voters here seem to know it. Standing for equality remains both the right stance and the popular one, especially when compared against Republican opponents stances, who have built their campaigns on fear and hatred of transgender people.
Polling from AtlasIntel for the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races conducted between 10.25-10.30.2025 reveal that the Democratic candidates’ approaches to the trans issues are preferred to the GOP’s.
