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An Introduction To Fundamental Analysis For Trading Commodities
hello and welcome everybody to today's very special training a introduction to fundamental analysis for trading the commodity markets presented by myself filter at the gold and silver bub so now just before we get started and go into today's training just a very quick disclaimer guys that I will leave for you to read just before we get into the session okay perfect so during today's session we will be covering an introduction to fundamental analysis how to use fixed odds trading for maximum profits live market analysis identifying high probability trade setups on the commodity markets answering questions and of course we will be providing live support as well so before we get started let me introduce you to the gold and silver club the golden silver club is the world's number one commodities trading and investment coaching company we are regarded as the go-to authority on commodities trading as internationally respected experts our analysis and our opinions on the metals the energies and the agricultural markets they are routinely sought by major financial television channels and publications which include Bloomberg Reuters CNBC global banking and finance view The Wall Street Journal and of course it's a pleasure to be here on binary calm as well our team of experts has trained a mented over 100 thousand private traders from all over the world to increase their wealth and generate substantial monthly income through commodities using our signature trading strategies so for more information on the golden silver club and our expertise please feel free to visit our website which is a WWE gold and silver club at dot-com so we will get right into it and we'll have a look at what exactly fundamental analysis is so fundamental analysis is the following fundamental analysis is the study of economic activity and its effect on price movements in the markets it provides information on how geopolitical and economical events influence the financial markets figures and statements given in speeches by important politician global heads of central bank's and economists are known to have a great impact on market moves in particular announcements related to the United States economy and politics are among the most closely followed events as they can have significant impacts across the financial markets so when you're looking at fundamental analysis there are a combination of both unscheduled and also scheduled events so if you want to know when various events are scheduled you need to look at economic calendar from there you will be able to see what major news announcements are coming up over the course of the week which could affect the markets that you trade so for instance if you trade gold or silver FOMC statements non-farm payrolls they will have a significant impact an economic calendar is used by traders to monitor market moving events so that can be such as economic indicators monetary policy decisions we've actually got one coming up later on this week at Jackson Hole with Janet Yellen giving a speech market moving events which are typically announced or released in a report have a high probability of impacting the financial markets traders in the commodity markets they pay close attention to global events by using an economic calendar so for example if you trade the grains markets that could be you trade wheat corn soybeans and cotton you will be paying a lot of attention to USDA reports so every single month there is a USDA report since the US Department of Agriculture they release a report affecting supply and demand gives more details about current stocks and the overall demand in the markets and that has a big impact if you trade the agricultural markets you've also got major events which will affect currencies and gold and silver which include interest rate decisions non-farm payroll numbers changes in gross domestic product or GDP consumer price index I betrayed oil crude oil inventories the Baker Hughes or oil recount you've got a number of announcements which you need to be aware of and this is really important particularly if you are a new trader I think a lot of you who are more expert we'll be very aware of economic scheduled events and calendars but if you've never come across this before if you're not using this in your trading already it's very important that you do use a calendar to know when the upcoming major events are scheduled because this can have a big impact over your trades and if you take a trade right before a huge high-impact announcement that can cause your trade to lose when ordinarily perhaps it would have won if you just waited for that major news item to pass on the flipside you can also use major news releases like non-farm payrolls and FOMC statements to actually pay trades because often we get some really big high momentum moves after major news items which you can also capitalize on which are definitely worth having in the schedule now in terms of the major news item speeches to keep an eye on definitely include Janet Yellen okay so she is the head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has more influence over the US dollars value than any other person so last week we saw the US Dollar Index break down to seven week lows that was following on from the minutes from the Federal Reserve statement which were released last Wednesday which essentially reported that the Federal Reserve at that point in time were not in a position to go ahead with a increase in interest rate so that was last Wednesday on the back of that we immediately saw gold breakout we also saw moves to the upside with several other commodities the US dollar broke down to seven week loads however later on in the week on Thursday and also Friday we had a number of FOMC members who were giving statements who then started to suggest and in fact the economy is stronger and then they originally had anticipated and that recent data has been supportive and that they could be in a position to increase interest rates in September which has caused confusion in the markets so for those of you who trade Forex you probably noticed markets have been quite choppy over the last week gold silver and continued to consolidate as a number of markets which is still whole on to their very tight ranges throughout the month of August and they're essentially waiting for Janet Janet Yellen speech on Friday to give a further signal as to whether the Federal Reserve is going to increase the interest rate hikes or not and just the fact that giant yelling speaking Friday is creating a lot of nervousness in the markets we're seeing several marketers consolidate and they are just continuing to move within very tight ranges so what we're looking at on her speech on Friday is whether she would drop hints regarding future the monetary policy and interest rate decisions which as a result having an influence on commodity prices and can present some really highly lucrative trading opportunities for that would be over Friday and into Monday as well so that's definitely worth having on your radar now non-farm payrolls are once a month they are the first Friday of every month what are they essentially they show the number of jobs added or lost each month in the US economy the jobs report serves as a important barometer of economic health and growth across all of the economy sectors more jobs means more money for consumers and increase in overall consumer spending the Federal Reserve also assesses jobs data to determine whether the economy is strong enough to withstand a higher interest rate the last two non-farm payrolls have been very strong they've caused breakouts from the US dollar and set off for gold and also silver so when the numbers come out strong in puts the Federal Reserve in a better position to suggest interest rate hike just remember as well that the Federal Reserve do not have to go ahead and increase interest rates they only need to suggest that they are in a position to do so and that will have a big impact on the market and that's certainly what we've seen over the last week so there has a lot of influence over various commodities so to give you an overview that is really fundamental analysis what we're looking at scheduled news items which you can use to give you an edge in the market typically as it relates to the commodity markets if you trade the precious metals you want to look at non-farm payrolls FOMC statements where Janet you speaking you want to look at GDP numbers CPI numbers retail sales is a number of different news items which you need to be aware of if you trade crude oil you need to be aware of crude oil inventories OPEC meetings beta's use oil rig reports and if you trade at the agricultural markets you need to be aware of USDA reports which have from the US Department of Agriculture which have a big impact over the movements of agriculture markets so then you want to really marry these up together you want to combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis and this will give you trading opportunities so here is an approach for combining the two you can use fundamental analysis to essentially select the commodity from your watchlist you can see when a major news item is coming up determine whether a commodity is overvalued or undervalued relative to its current value and then you can use technical analysis to time the specific entry into a commodity on your watchlist or whether you want to go higher or lower whether you should get into the trade now what time frame you want that tray to deliver over and you can determine the best exit for that with big profits as well for your maximum profitability depending on when major news items are due to be released so with that I would before we go over to the chance I'll talk you through some of the trade opportunities that we are looking at as we head into the rest of the week as we head into Wednesday Thursday and Friday but particularly the major news item will be Friday's major announcement by Janet Yellen now in terms of our portfolio performance over the last week we've seen some incredible moves on crude oil crude oil has moved over 24% over the month of August so we've seen some very large moves to the upside Princeton came down to 40 US dollars on this market and we very simply has been discussed on Fridays commodities corner we got into a rise trade once we saw $40 have been supported very straightforward trade for the price to be higher than our entry at 44 and in fact that has continued to follow through breakout and that has been a very simple trade to take advantage of the momentum over the last two weeks and the move that we've had after we've had a corrected pull back on oil which was definitely predicted here from $40 per barrel and we've had nice follow-through so with that said guys what we'll do we'll have a look at two different types of trades now we'll be having a look at a higher type of trade and lower so if you select higher you win the payout if the market exit price is strictly higher than the entry price and if you select lower you win the payout if the market exit price is strictly lower than the entry price okay very straightforward way to trade the markets now what we essentially need to do there are a few markets which are closed now we can't take any trades on oil gold silver platinum and palladium we'll still be open though so we can have a look at those markets essentially what we need to do is first of all determine when we want to enter the market then we determine the timeframe and then whether we want the trade to go higher or lower okay so hopefully with that your newly acquired your knowledge on fundamental analysis that gives you a bit of a better idea of what we are discussing when we talk about major news items in the market and setups that we are looking at ahead of those news items and actually during those major announcements as well so with that guys I will move you over to my charts to hold on as I bring those across for you and we'll definitely have a look okay you should be able to see my go chart in just a second in fact hold on Massa be on my deal ticket as well okay just a quick check-in everybody can hear me okay and you can still see the presentation okay okay fantastic Thank You Cherise that's perfect okay good so we'll move over first of all I just want to give you a point of reference here which is the US Dollar Index so the US Dollar Index last week we broke down to seven week lows and the low point on the US dollar was from the minutes of the FOMC last Wednesday where we saw essentially the US dollar break down and we saw gold and silver breakout to the upside gold in particular came very close in terms of its actual clothes it was the strongest clothes on gold since non-farm payrolls at the beginning of the month so right now what can we deduce from where the US dollar is flat at the moment we're essentially we're continuing to consolidate the US dollar did break down today it's not really managed to follow through even off the back of comments from FOMC members into the clothes last Friday we're still seeing the US dollar fairly weak here if we have a look at gold in particular gold has been holding on to a channel over the course of the last week you can see very clearly where gold is continuing just a ricochet between 1331 up to 1356 in fact so far this week the range has been even tighter on that I would suggest when gold comes down to that major underlying level of support that presents buying opportunities at the moment when gold comes back up to the upper end of this resistance Channel right now it's been treated as an opportunity to take profit now I do like gold at the moment for a buy I like the price of gold at the moment where it's trading is continued to find support this week or 1330 US dollars it's starting to build up some support we can easily see that ramp back up towards last week highs again here but at the same time it is vulnerable to weakness until we get the announcement out of the way on Friday from Jackson Hole so ultimately I do like gold here I like it for more upside I think around these current levels it's got some good some good opportunities for a buy but a better entry if you can get it over the course of the week does tend to be around 1330 US dollars so depending on which time zone you are in if we were to revisit gold at 1330 get supported at that level either over the course of the asia-pacific session when to the UK session or u.s. session tomorrow and you see gold getting supported it does offer offer offer an opportunity to get into a buy here with gold at the moment now that's what I would look at right now and be focused on with the gold market I do like gold for more upside now we'll come back to that and look at the trade opportunities on that very shortly I'll just draw your attention over to palladium as well so palladium had another pull back today ultimately it's come back also like gold into a major supportive zone which you can see sits at 681 so into the close today looks like we're going to get a retest or certainly we actually tested 700 today looks to be building a base previous resistance turning into support definitely we're seeing some strong support at that 680 level I do actually like palladium here for more upside we had incredible move towards mid actually after non-farm payrolls but towards mid-august we saw palladium breakout 214 month highs and move 7% in one day for this breakout that we saw to the upside here that was palladium breaking out to it's over a year I was 2016 highs 14 month highs nice pop to the upside and see onyx palladium has managed to hold on to most of those games so we can come back and have a look at that very shortly if we move over to platinum platinum also you will note there's a previous level of resistance on platinum which is now turned into support so if we have a look around 1100 that was a previous level that we consolidated out for about two and a half to three weeks at the end of July until finally platinum pops if that we caught that breakout move to the upside that was a really nice clean trading clean breakout breaking out to 2016 hives we've had a corrective pull back over the month of July so far into the beginning of August 2 but right now we're back at a major level here previous positions turning into support so I am also watching platinum closely here for a potential buy as we head into or after in fact after the announcement of Friday from Yellen so that will be one to keep an eye on – now I have had a lot of questions on oil and what we're looking at here for the next move so what I would draw your attention to right now is the fact that oil did after we had this incredible bull run over the first six months of 2016 we had the corrective pull back we've been looking for so we got the 50% retracement we came all the way back down to 40 u.s. dollars per barrel we've since rallied from that level we've had we've seen actually over the month of August oil rallying 24% to the upside now it's pulled back over the last couple of days but actually if we are to hold on to this hammer which we're forming into the close at the moment which you'll note is actually forming at a lower end of a new trend channel which is developing here for oil I feel actually quite like oil for another leg higher here I would have ideally like to see a slightly deeper corrected pullback on oil but at the same time it has managed to take some of it so you can see has moved about 280 1.6 retraced some of the gains here but I would say oil is one to keep an eye on I am expecting oil over the course of between now and the end of the year to repress the 2016 highs naturally exceed those so I'm looking for oil to break back above for light sweet crude oil also known as US oil I'm looking for the price to break back above fifty two US dollars here so that would be from where we are now about a four dollar move or four hundred point break out for light sweet crude oil so that is definitely a market I would suggest having on your radar we've got the oil inventories tomorrow which definitely could provide more direction here and also later on in the week of course you've got the Baker Hughes oil rig report and we have an OPEC meeting with your taking place in September as well all news items which can have significant impacts on oil but technically right now from a technical point of view I do like this for more upside and just come back down after a significant rally last week to a major area of support and I will be looking at more upside on oil now right now we can't take a trade on oil it is closed on binary but I just would put that on your radar if we do see a breach above today's highs tomorrow this can actually be quite a nice short-term trade for the price to be higher by the end of the day so just be aware of that trade opportunity now moving back to gold here yeah gold is just really ricocheting between support and resistance right now I would actually be on the sidelines for gold in terms of a new entry at the moment until tomorrow's session so we do or in fact over the asia-pacific I would suggest if gold does retest 1330 US dollars that is an area of a lot of support right now if gold hits that level we could see it bounce from that zone and offer another short-term opportunity for the price to be higher but right now I wouldn't take a trade on this at the moment certainly not a short-term trade and we do want to just get the Jackson Hole news announcement out of the way on Friday now it's different on binary converses if you trade for example on the Metatrader 4 platform the way it operates is slightly different so from that point of view I do like gold for a longer-term trade but for a binary trade for the price to be higher at the moment I would hold off on this right now until we revisit 1313 US dollars that's personally what I will be doing on the binary platform what I do like here though is caladium in fact I'll see what price thing I can get on palladium as we go into next week let's have a look okay it's not tradable at the moment so with that it does doesn't mean we can't trade palladium at the moment but I tell you what guys I would have that on your radar so palladium you can see this overall setup which is developing right now you've got a previous level of resistance which is turning to support we're doing today's session later than normal usually we did a commodities corner at 12:30 London time so because the session we're doing a bit later tonight some of the markets that we usually trade and are usually available they aren't open to trade right now what is available to trade is gold and silver but again I would hold off on these markets right now until we get a resolution towards the end of the week in fact friday's commodities corner will be an ideal time to be joining us as well because we will be looking at the setups between development ahead of the Jackson Hole speech Janet Yellen is due to speak at 3 o'clock London time on Friday ok so just have that in mind if you want to just add that to your diary that is going to be a major news item I would also definitely keep an eye on oil as we head into tomorrow session as well now for those of you who have requested and would like to get updated throughout the week not only on our webinars but you would like to day to day get the trade notifications get the updates get the alerts every time there is a trading opportunity you can get that at the gold and silver Club it's something that you can gain access to you can join us for our live trading rooms throughout the week you can get our specific levels that we're getting into all of our trades and management of our trades get all of the setups get the reminders absolutely you can get access to all of that so how do you get access to all of that well essentially if you would like access to our highly profitable live trade ideas shared with you ready to implement all you need to do is just go over to WWE the golden silver grabber calm so once you've completed the application form we will get in touch with you ASAP and that will enable you to get exclusive access to our private members live trading room so WWN gone celibate dot-com okay fantastic and what does that include exactly well whether you're a new trader you want to develop a solid understanding of the markets fast-track your results or even if you're an experienced trader and you really want to take your trading to the next level then the private members live trading room is definitely something to consider by being a member you get access to our live trading room webinars throughout the week you can watch the golden silver Club expert traders analyze the commodity markets right in front of you picking out highly profitable trade setups share exact entry points exit points profit and stop-loss targets as well as walk you through live trade ideas ready to implement you also get access to trade notifications by email and SMS so real-time trade notifications alerting you when to enter a trade all notifications give you exact details of when we're entering exiting all trades are sent out in advance notice to ensure you have plenty of time to get into every single position at the best possible price we also provide you with our commodity research and market insight so private members get exclusive access to our proprietary trading research and marketing sites to help boost your win rate and ensure you're on the right side of trades or trading research is there to guarantee to give you the edge in the commodity markets and fast-track your results so if you would like access to our exclusive weekly live trading room webinars live trade setups ready to implement for instant results real time trade notifications by email SMS so you don't miss profitable trades exact details of where to enter exit place a stop loss a weekly trading time with a watchlist of trade ideas for the week ahead live trade support to help you successfully through each trade and also institutional level training research and commodity insights to give you the ultimate edge in the markets you can get all of that again just going to WWN to gold and silver club at calm okay fantastic and also for those of you who want to be kept updated with our regular reports and also our television interviews in fact there's another one which has just been uploaded today our latest television interview just go across to the gold and silver Club and make sure you subscribe to our channel to get all the latest updates from the golden silver Club and of course with that I wish you all a good trading week and we very much look forward to see you on the next session and I of course look forward to working with those of you who will be making an application and joining us at the gold and silver Club okay guys so I think that's it for today's session I can't see any more questions right now so thanks again to Cherise and Barney calm and the team and we will speak to you all real soon and we'll catch you on Fridays commodities corner thanks guys take care bye bye