NFL Week 3 Predictions
Week 2 proved to be a return to at least my normal accuracy with an W11 L5 record on predictions. I’ll pick out a few highlights from my predictions as well as any stinkers (yeah you Saints) as we go. Week 3 predictions below. Enjoy!
Panthers 24 Texans 6
Spread: Panthers -8.0
Pick confidence: 85%
This is not what prime time is all about. Backup rookie quarterbacks vs good defenses. The Texans were middle of the pack in both passing and rushing stats through 2 weeks, but that was with Tyrod Taylor in for the most part. Davis Mills will get the start on Thursday and from what we saw Sunday, plus a short week, I don’t think we can expect too much out of the Texans offense regardless of opponent. Problem here is that the opponent has a defense that is crushing it this season. The Panthers lead the league in both pass and rushing yards allowed through two weeks, the Jets and Saints may not have posed the ultimate test but these are professional footballers. The Texans with Taylor would struggle to move the ball consistently here, that won’t be any easier with Mills at QB. On the other side, the Panthers have moved the ball well and Darnold looks a lot more comfortable with weapons around him and an offensive line that has only allowed 3 sacks through 2 weeks. I think there is still a ceiling to this offense so until I see them hit 30 points I won’t be predicting it. This should be a comfortable win and I don’t think the Texans make it to pay dirt.
Colts 17 Titans 31
Spread: Titans -6.0
Pick confidence: 80%
It’s unclear as to whether Wentz will start this game after spraining both ankles on the same play last week, I have therefore gone for a mid-point, with Wentz the Colts score 24, without they could well only put up 10! Either way I think the Titans run out fairly comfortable winners here. It did look like something clicked for the Titans in the second half last week. Teams who are losing don’t go ground game heavy, unless they’ve remembered who they are. Tannehill is a good NFL QB, he is not great. When asked to hit wide open receivers on play action because Henry is being a force of nature on most other plays, Tannehill thrives. It happened last year as well, it’s like the Titans buy the hype that they’ve suddenly uncovered a great in Tannehill and they then put it on him, they falter and then revert to the game plan that makes them a threat to anyone. I feel like this game will be the one where we see it from the off. Look for a couple of Henry TDs and I’m going for 2 strikes to AJ Brown here too. In the first half last week the Colts stayed with the Rams and even should have been up, they had 2 red zone trips that netted 0 points (downs and INT). Those kind of miscues sink you against good teams. It was also noticeable that Wentz was running for his life, now the Titans are not going to bring pressure like Donald and co but whoever is back there is unlikely to be comfortable all day. It does not bode well in this matchup, especially if the Titans shorten the game like they should with their run first offense. No Wentz, then the spread is a steal. With Wentz, spotting a division rival sat at 0-2 six feels less secure. I’d probably still take it.
Falcons 27 Giants 26
Spread: Giants -3.0
Pick confidence: 51%
The Falcons have been my nemesis with these predictions in the last couple of years. An offense that contains so much talent but produces so inconsistently makes the team hard to pick correctly. The Falcons put up a good fight against the Bucs until two pick sixes late took the game away from them. This week they face a Giants team coming off it’s best outing offensively for a while in a heart-breaking loss to a division rival. How do they bounce back? There are no excuses here for Daniel Jones not to follow up on a very good performance, or for the Giants running game not to find traction against a porous Falcons D. The Falcons have allowed a league leading 8 passing TDs through 2 weeks. So why am I picking the Falcons? Probably because we are about ready to write them off this season, and that is when they do a number on me…. I actually think there is too much talent offensively not to keep this game close. In close games the Giants turnover worries often prove to be the deciding factor. Until Jones can prove he can consistently avoid the killer turnovers with a string of low turnover games it is equally as hard to pick the Giants against teams with talent.
Chargers 31 Chiefs 35
Spread: Chiefs -7.0
Pick confidence: 65%
Shootout of the week? Nothing we have seen from the Chiefs D suggests that Justin Herbert and the Chargers won’t have their way with them for the most part. Can Herbert outduel Mahomes? I’m not going to back it until I’ve seen it, Mahomes has earned that. There are glimmers of hope for the Chargers, the one person to keep Travis Kelce in check in recent years? Derwin James. If he can lock down Kelce like he has previously then another Chief will have to step up. Can the likes of Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle make those third down plays Kelce does so routinely? Expect Ekeler to have success against the Chiefs and for the Chargers to succeed with a balanced attack. I’m calling 2 Mike Williams TDs in this one. The Chiefs have put up 27 and 35 points in the last two weeks against decent defenses so we know they will score. I think this game will be closer than the spread but ultimately I’m going to back Mahomes in this matchup, unless Herbert decides to go for 107 and 2 scores on the ground…
Bengals 20 Steelers 21
Spread: Steelers -3.0
Pick confidence: 55%
What Steeler’s offense will show up? The one where all the talent comes together and actually moves the ball? The one where more than 1 deep shot lands per game? We know what we will get from the Pittsburgh D and this will be a second tough out for Burrow and the Bengals after running into a Bears D that came to play in the second half last week, including 3 picks thrown by Burrow in 3 throws! How will the young passer bounce back against a better overall unit, even with Watt out? I don’t think we will see as many turnovers but I can’t see the Bengals going much over 20 in this game. It will then be up to the Steelers to put up 20+ to see this game out. I figure they get it done this week and hold on in the 3 horse race for the AFC North. I don’t see them staying in that race over the course of the season, at least based on what we have seen to date. The Bengals D has been friskier than most predicted, especially with Hendrickson improving the Bengals pass rush, and so it will present challenges for Big Ben. The Bengals stout run defense will likely see that this is not the Najee Harris breakout week. I think Ben does enough to get this done but this should be a tight defensive game, and in all honesty could go either way.
Bears 17 Browns 27
Spread: Browns -7.0
Pick confidence: 80%
The Bears turned the Bengals over 4 times in the second half last week, including a pick-six, and won the game by 3 points. Other than a touchdown on the first drive of the game the Bears offense contributed 2 field goals. The first after a Tee Higgins fumble at midfield and the second on a 4 play drive covering a whopping 5 yards after the third Burrow interception. Each team has 2 units and either unit winning the game for the team counts as a W, but this Bears offense is not firing and is not a unit I trust to keep them in games against top caliber opposition. Regardless of who is playing QB right now. The Browns on the other hand are playing well, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The game plan is sound, a heavy dose of Chubb and Hunt then let Mayfield carve up undermanned secondaries. It will help that the Browns get OBJ back this week, given Landry is not available. I’m confident the Browns take this one, will the Bears D play well enough to be able to cover the spread, they will need turnovers and I’m not sure this is the week they will come.
Ravens 33 Lions 24
Spread: Ravens -7.5
Pick confidence: 90%
Was last week the start of the Lamar Jackson MVP round 2 campaign? You cannot be anything other than amazed by the man when he does what he did to the Chiefs. The concern, 2 picks, one pick-six. I said in my season preview that deja-vu will be the story for the Ravens this year. Dominate the regular season with plenty of Lamar performances like we saw last week but ultimately come unstuck against a top tier opponent when the run game won’t be enough to play catch up. Although seeing Jackson and Henry do their thing last week may just change someone’s mind. The way to get at this Lions team is generally through the air, 6 scores through 2 weeks. The run D is stouter but to be honest I think that goes out the window against the Ravens, this is not a traditional rushing attack. The Ravens will eat up the yards on the ground but I think we start to see a bit more from the aerial attack in the next couple of weeks. Andrews and Watkins to each score would not be a surprise to me from what I have seen of the targets through 2 weeks. The Lions have sported a pretty balanced attack so far this year with success both through the air and on the ground. They have not had an easy start to the year with the 49ers and Packers in the first two weeks of the season. I fear we won’t learn too much more about the Lions again this week. We know they won’t challenge the 3 teams they’ve played so far this year, how will they fair against teams that are not supposed to be postseason locks? We should see some success against this Ravens unit but they just do not have the horses in this race. The fact that Baltimore has given up 33 and 35 so far this season gives me pause on taking the spread here, the teams putting up those points were the Raiders and Chiefs though. If the Ravens keep the foot on the gas then they should be able to cover the spread.
Saints 17 Patriots 20
Spread: Patriots -3.0
Pick confidence: 60%
Alvin Kamara 8 carries for 5 yards? C’mon. The Saints possessions against Carolina: Punt, Punt, Punt, INT, Punt, Downs, Punt, TD, Punt, Downs, INT. Wow. Next up a Patriots team that is pretty stingy on defense and has only allowed 23 points in the first two weeks of the season. OK, Jets, I get your point. One thing you can guarantee is that Belichick and co will have a plan for Jameis Winston. He has been turnover prone in his career and if anyone can exploit that it will be Bill Belichick. That means the best way for the Saints to walk out of this with a W is for them to go early and often to their star man Kamara. Anything like the first line of this blurb and we know who won this game. You have to figure we won’t see the week 1 Saints, but you also have to figure we won’t see the week 2 Saints again either. Somewhere in the middle will mean this is a closely fought contest. Mac Jones has acquitted himself well so far this season. He is playing the part he is being asked to, the Patriots MO. I do struggle to see where the points are coming from with this Patriots team. I figure in this one a defensive touchdown breaks the Saints, Jones and co then do enough to edge a tight one.
Cardinals 31 Jaguars 21
Spread: Cardinals -7.5
Pick confidence: 95%
Trevor Lawrence is having to play from behind every week, the recipe for a rookie QB to go 4 TD 5 INT in the first 2 weeks. Given the prowess of the Cards offense you can only imagine a similar game script this week. For me this is an easy pick, it has my highest pick confidence that I will ever give, there is just a mismatch of talent here. The Cards D has given up yards and points so I’m sure the Jags will be able to move the ball enough to put up a couple of scores but it will not be enough to keep this game close. I expect Arizona to look at Chase Edmonds and Rondale Moore to get those guys going and part of the offense going forward, this looks to be a good game to do that. See my daily fantasy line-up! I figure Murray gets to hand the ball of a little more in the second half here as they protect him for bigger games to come. The Cards D might be a good play in daily fantasy or as a spot start, the game narrative lends itself to a few desperation INTs from Lawrence. The spread is no brainer for me here.
Washington 17 Bills 28
Spread: Bills -7.0
Pick confidence: 85%
You may have expected the Washington defense to be the best defensive unit in this game, it is not. The Bills have much improved and are getting great play from some young pass rushers and a big jump in performance from linebackers like Matt Milano. Expect this unit to come out pumped after bageling the Dolphins last weekend. Taylor Heinicke has played well but will have a tough time moving the ball consistently against this Bills team and therefore I see 20 points as the absolute ceiling here. The Bills offense still doesn’t look like it is clicking fully but Diggs got more action last week and that should continue to increase as this unit sorts itself out. I don’t see some of the fireworks we were expecting from them just yet but they will do more than enough to see off this Washington team. I have high confidence in this pick but the Bills offense is yet to show consistency so the spread could be tight and I’m less confident in that regard. The Bills are starting to run the ball better, that may well open up the windows for Josh Allen to find his rhythm.
Jets 13 Broncos 23
Spread: Broncos -10.0
Pick confidence: 80%
The Panthers, Patriots and Broncos defenses represent a pretty tough opening slate for a rookie QB without much skill position support. I think we see another struggle for Wilson this week, maybe not to the tune of 4 INTs, but certainly struggles to move the ball and likely a couple of miscues. On the other side it was great to see Courtland Sutton come back with a bang (yeah he is on my fantasy team..) after missing time just as he was hitting his stride. The Broncos offense has moved the ball nicely under Teddy Bridgewater but this Jets defense is stout, only giving up an average of 22 points per game over the first two weeks. When you consider that includes defending field position that comes with 5 INTs from the offense we should look at this unit as a much improved one. I see this being a low scoring game, one in which the Broncos are not really under threat and ultimately run out comfortable winners. 10 points is a lot to spot any NFL team in terms of the spread, especially in what looks to be a low scoring game, I do have the margin exactly at the spread but 10+ point spreads should always come with some nervousness.
Dolphins 20 Raiders 26
Spread: Raiders -3.5
Pick confidence: 65%
Consider the relatively close scoreline and lower pick confidence here a nod to Brian Flores and the kind of coach he is. If anyone will get this Dolphins team to bounce back and play with pride then it is him. Ultimately though, the Raiders are the superior team here. Miami’s line is allowing far too much pressure on whoever is playing QB, 8 sacks in the first two weeks tells a large part of the story but there is rarely time to go through reads and find open receivers even when the sacks don’t rack up. This leads to a lot of short passes to backs and receivers, relying on YAC to generate offense. In comes a Raiders pass rush led by Maxx Crosby that has been brilliant through the first two weeks, that likely continues here and will be the determining factor in this game. Miami’s top flight corners will matchup and compete well against Waller and Ruggs and should keep this game closer than records and recent performances would suggest. Miami has a knack of making predictions look a little silly under Brian Flores so while my head tells me this should be a comfortable Raiders win and to take the spread here, my gut tells me it won’t be as easy an out as it should be.
Seahwaks 31 Vikings 30
Spread: Seahawks -2.5
Pick confidence: 51%
Game of the week potential right here. Kirk Cousins has been, again, quietly playing really good football. I would expect that to continue here but it should be in a supporting role to Dalvin Cook (or Mattison if Cook does not go) as run defense has been a problem for the Seahawks to the tune of 325 yard and 3 scores over the first 2 weeks. The Vikings haven’t faired too much better giving up yards on both the ground and through the air. We can expect the Seahawks to put up points and so it will be on the Vikings offense to go out and win this game for them. A heavy dose of Cook and some play action will provide success for this team, I think this is the week Justin Jefferson reminds us just how special a player he is. The Seahawks perennial offensive line problems don’t seem to have abated, even given the effort put in to do so. It has not stopped this offense scoring points but it always opens up the opportunity for the opposition to make splash plays when the game is on the line.
With Cook out, I've changed my pick so the Seahawks nick the W.
Buccaneers 27 Rams 24
Spread: Buccaneers -1.5
Pick confidence: 55%
On paper this is the game of the week. You could make an argument that it is the two best teams in the NFL going head to head here. The biggest question mark for me is the Bucs D in this game. They have given up plenty of yards and points over the last 2 games, averaging 27 per contest. The question being is that a result of game script, or a bigger issue? If the game is tight, which this one should be, will that lead to better stats for this defense? Matt Stafford and the Rams will certainly give us some clarity on that. I expect Cooper Kupp to go off again in this one. Will the rest of the Rams offense step up and help out enough to overcome a sizzling Bucs offense? I don’t think so. I’m going to go with the Bucs, they can seemingly move the ball at will whereas I’m not seeing exactly that from the Rams. Brady can change up who is the number 1 guy week on week, Evans last week, Brown the week before, there are too many weapons for Ramsey to take out of the game. This should be a very close affair but I trust Brady and the Bucs offense over the Rams right now. How many games are won by 1 point? Not many, although a couple already this year, so if you fancy the Bucs then take the spread.
Packers 30 49ers 27
Spread: 49ers -3.0
Pick confidence: 55%
Call this one a gut feel. Rodgers and co bounced back last week, albeit against the Lions, while there appeared to be regression in the 49ers offense with Jimmy G struggling. We have not seen the same type of play from the likes of Kittle and Aiyuk that we have grown accustomed to so far this year. The run game will be strong and will prove a challenge for A Packers defense that appears to be figuring new schemes out on the fly. The 49ers defense played well against a good Eagles unit last weekend but did also allow the Lions to claw themselves back into the game in week 1. I’m going to go with the offense trending in the right direction, yes offensive line issues for the Packers are a concern but I think Rodgers continues to get back on track here. The 49ers are thin at running back, again. How many times can Shanahan go to the well and have success? A close game and in truth could go either way but I’m siding with the Pack.
Eagles 23 Cowboys 28
Spread: Cowboys -3.5
Pick confidence: 65%
Another game with great potential here. I can’t figure out whether this is a lower scoring contest with running games taking over or a shootout with a bit of run and aerial explosiveness. Hurts has run well but has not yet consistently got his receivers into the game. This may be the week to do so as the Cowboys offense looks primed to be a consistently high scoring unit. Last week, in a relatively low scoring affair the Cowboys rushed for 180 yards, with Tony Pollard looking like the best back in the Dallas backfield. The Eagles can be run on and it would make sense for Dallas’ game plan to target that. Too much for Dak to do and the Eagles front might make life difficult for him. The best way to keep that in check is to run the ball, Dak’s chances will then come on play action. For the Eagles to win this game they need to have more success through the air against someone who is not the Falcons. DeVonta Smith has had this offense built around his skill set and he is going to have to step up and lead it, if he can then it will open up the offense for the two talented tight ends to go to work, giving Hurts some easier reads and simpler throws. I like what I saw from the Cowboys last week and think that is set to continue so am going for a Dallas win here. It should be close so I don’t have huge confidence in the spread.