Recession and political change loom for Chile
Benedict Mander in Buenos Aires, Financial Times, April 19, 2017
Chile’s longest mining strike since 1973 threatens to tip the economy into recession for the first time since the global financial crisis, increasing the possibility that the country will join the region’s political drift to the right in November’s elections.
The 43-day strike at La Escondida, which accounts for about a fifth of national copper production and almost 2 per cent of gross domestic product, caused the copper mining sector to shrink 17 per cent in February. That threatens to push mining-dependent Chile into a technical recession in the first quarter of 2017 when figures are released next month, after the economy contracted 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of 2016 from the preceding quarter.
With mining companies under pressure to improve productivity amid lower copper prices, the strike over workers’ pay--which ended last month--is expected to cost BHP Billiton, which operates the mine, some $1bn in lost production. It last week caused the state copper commission to downgrade the country’s forecast output of the metal, and the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points to stimulate growth.
Chile’s economic slump comes as many of the developing world’s weakest economies start to recover, with neighbouring Argentina returning to growth last year, while Russia, Brazil and Nigeria are all expected to turn the corner this year.
And it takes place as the rest of Latin America has tired of leftist governments and corruption scandals in favour of business-friendly pragmatists better equipped to deal with the slower growth that has followed the end of the commodities boom.
“Undoubtedly, the economy’s poor performance favours the right,” says Guillermo Holzmann, director of Analytyka Consulting. He points out that memories are still fresh of the economic prosperity enjoyed by Chileans during the 2010-2014 presidency of Sebastián Piñera, the rightwing candidate in the forthcoming elections who is leading in the polls by a wide margin.
Economic growth has averaged less than 2 per cent since the leftist government of Michelle Bachelet took power in 2014, contributing to a collapse in the president’s approval ratings to below the lowest level of Mr Piñera. Even though at the time he was considered to be Chile’s least popular president since General Augusto Pinochet, his record on growth--an average of more than 5 per cent--has many Chileans pining for the past.
But many in Chile associate the billionaire Mr Piñera with a business and political establishment that has been discredited by scandals connected with illegal campaign financing, and demand deeper change.
In turn, the ruling coalition’s expected candidate, the independent senator and former journalist Alejandro Guillier, must try to distance himself from an unpopular government that has been tarnished by constant street protests.