Maybe this isnt the sort of discourse you were hoping for but do you think Jannik's recent slump [if we can call it that?] is related to the layers he's been trying to add to his game?
No this is exactly the kind of discourse I always love to talk about because it lets me get to have a go at flexing the tennis muscle in my brain!
I believe for sure that Jannik's "slump" is a consequence of him restructuring his game. As I've mentioned previously, because the technicality of tennis runs all the way down to the minutiae, change can come at a steep, upfront cost. Racquet grips (continental, eastern, semi-western, western, and extreme) can have fifty to sixty variations. Every service motion is distinct. Forehand and backhand preparation will differ depending on the style of a player's game. Etcetera.
Consequently, when players have to uproot months, even years of body memory to seed new skills it is going to tank their overall performance.
You may have heard commentators discussing Jannik's "wings". What they're referring to here is his backhand and forehand coverage of the court , which Jannik is exceptionally good at and the reason he's so dangerous in a rally. Neither his backhand or (previous) forehand have that many exploitable weaknesses, so players were backed into two tactical choices. One, serve well enough that Jannik's returns a neutral ball or forces himself out wide, which can then be used to hit a serve + 1 winner, or put pressure on Jannik by dictating the pace of a rally. Two, have more variety in their game that can be weaponised against Jannik to disrupt his baselining.
Jannik identified the latter as problem area after USO last year when he said he needed to become less predictable. Yes Jannik's modus operandi baseline rallying is nigh impenetrable, but when you're Carlos Alcaraz and the thing you're known for is throwing the kitchen sink at your opponents, Jannik rightfully identified that he needed to start throwing some of the cutlery back or Carlos was going to run away with their H2H. And as we have seen, Jannik's tactical diversity has improved a head and shoulders above where he was at last year. He's taking more points to the net, winning more points at the net, and is overall less cornered by players who break up his rhythm because he trusts himself to be able to improvise and re-strategise in the middle of a point.
Jannik's AO match against Ben was an excellent example of this. Ben, of course, has a fucking killer serve which is his main weapon against Jannik. Yes Jannik is a fantastic returner, but when you're receiving a 230km/h serve down the tee, all you can really do is block return and redirect the force, which typically gives the server a neutral ball to work with. However, even when Ben was given an easy ball off Jannik's return during the AO qfs, Jannik's no hesitation approach to coming into the net or chasing down short balls meant that Ben capacity to keep Jannik off balance and dictate points was greatly reduced. Especially because Ben still struggles with rally tolerance, once Jannik trapped him in a rally he pretty much always lost the point.
So we can see here that by adding this new layer of tactical variety, Jannik is able to elevate his game to a whole new level by reducing the number of exploitable weaknesses that come with being a primarily baseline rallier. However. Adding improved net play to Jannik's tennis doesn't require breaking current technique, it's about learning and ingraining the muscle memory. Which brings me back to my initial point about upfront costs and wings.
Jannik is currently retraining his forehand to hone it for clay season, which I don't think comes as a surprise to anyone. Roland Garros is the final slam Jannik needs to complete his career slam and well, the rest of what RG represents to Jannik emotionally makes it likely his main priority this year. The problem is though that in order to reshape Jannik for RG, his team has to break one of his wings. With his forehand in the shop, Jannik no longer has his default baselining to fall back on and his forehand side has now become more of a liability, more easily exploitable. Jannik is a fast learner, an even faster applicator, and I'm sure before long we'll start to see Jannik reaping the rewards of his willingness to fail. But it does mean right now that Jannik is more vulnerable to players like Mensik, who can utilise their big serves and big groundstrokes to put pressure on that wet behind the ears forehand.
Jannik can't really default to his old forehand either because then he would be undoing all the current effort he's putting into retraining, so he is unfortunately stuck between a rock and a hard place with his game at the moment. And even if Jannik can intellectualise that in order to learn, improve, and eventually succeed he must first be willing to take several steps backwards, it doesn't lessen the frustration of having to drop below the level of tennis he would typically expect of himself.
Which is why I also think that there is an element of emotional destabilisation. Jannik is known, renowned, as a baseliner, has won slams because of that insurmountable baseline coverage. Breaking away from that now (and coming off the back of a very unexpected AO loss) puts Jannik in a more vulnerable position, not just on court, but also in the media where his slump is being characterised as the downfall of a champion and not the natural ebb and flow of professional tennis, particularly during a period of reconstruction.
Overall I think this period is essential for not just the rest of Jannik's season and his RG title bid, but also the rest of his career. Not only because he doesn't want his game to stagnate, but also the more adversity Jannik comes up against the more he trains his mental and physical capacity to overcome. But I will say, this period of restructuring, retraining, and relearning is likely to last, in various capacities, for the entire season. Thus it will not benefit you to catastrophise when Jannik struggles or his tennis seemingly devolves. These initial stumbles have certainly shown who actually likes Jannik as a player and who's hanging around because they wanted the easy clout of a high percentage winning player.
