NBCU won the Premiere league rights for an estimated 83 million dollars a year. Below I look at the pluses and minuses of the deal for NBCU.
1. Bet on growth: When selling something, you try to sell it for the most it is worth. Most professional sports have a long track record on TV. If you buy NBA games, the NBA has a pretty good idea about the ratings they will get and how much you will make. They will charge you a high amount and there is less profit to be made. Soccer, though, is a growing sport so NBCU may have found a profitable way to make money on sports. Soccer ratings aren't great and there isn't a long history of big U.S soccer ratings. Because of that NBCU can buy low, help market the sport to increase ratings, and hope to capture more value than from a usual sports rights deal.
2. The schedule is good: Premiere league runs from August to May. There is a higher concentration of HUTS and PUTS (Houses and People Using Television) during this time. This also runs along a similar time as NBCSports' other big property - the NHL - which runs October to June. The pairing of these 2 properties creates a strong reason to watch NBCSports.
3. Soccer is growing: I met two kids recently who were both wearing European soccer jerseys. Soccer popularity has been growing in America thanks to strong world cup performances (Thank you Landon Donovan) and a growing MLS. Previously kids loved soccer but then didn't have idols to emulate nightly and gave up the sport. There is more coverage of soccer than ever before in the U.S (ESPN games, MLS, Beckham in L.A etc) so soccer may finally gain some traction.
4. The NBCU marketing muscle advantage: NBCU has a history of taking over properties and helping them grow through strong marketing (USA, Bravo etc). NBCU's key asset of superior marketing could help them make this deal profitable.
5. Cable networks need programming: Simply put, NBCSports needs content especially with hockey going through a lockout. True the NHL will resolve itself by the time the deal starts, but the loss of the NHL shows the lack of compelling non-Olympic sports on the network. Premiere league soccer players are first class athletes competing in an exciting sport.
6. The digital factor: The deal covers internet live streaming, mobile, and tablet rights. Those are some exciting growth areas. Can NBCSports come up with the definitive U.S soccer app that can monetize year round? What does 2nd screen soccer viewing look like? These are all potential innovative moneymakers for the network.
7. MLS: Premiere league soccer is a good companion with MLS, the U.S Soccer league. Viewers for one have an excellent chance of becoming viewers for the other.
1. Betting on American soccer is risky: Soccer has never taken off in America despite people saying it is going to. 83 million dollars is a sizable risky bet that it will happen.
2. Ratings: Premiere League currently averages 136,000 viewers*. That is very low and at viewership that low, I don't think NBCU can monetize enough to make 83 million a year + production expenses back. The ratings are also on a down from 142,000 the previous year. When NBCU bought hockey, they knew there were X number of viewers that will watch hockey on whatever network it is on. With the exception of a few Ex-Pats, I don't think premiere league soccer brings the same effect.
3. The foreign aspect: The foreign aspect affects NBCU in a number of ways. There are no home teams or local advantages which hurt ratings. A game featuring a hometown will always draw some sort of ratings boost. Also since the events are out of the country, there is no way for advertisers to engage viewers at stadium events which can be a good additional revenue source.
4. Time difference: NBCU got a lot of flack, wrongly I believe, during the Olympics for its delayed viewing strategy. The same time shift issues will persist issues as both events originate in London. Will people wait? Will people watch 9am soccer? NBCU is not going to have the power to influence game scheduling like it does in the Olympics.
5. Soccer Commercials: Fun fact about soccer. It is played in two 45 minute halves without any stoppages. That means the Soccer format doesn't allow commercial breaks in game. The advantage of sports is live viewing of commercials but that isn't as much the case with soccer. How can NBCU get their money back with fewer in game commercials? Will NBCU re-edit?
6. The Success Paradigm: NBCU signed a 3 year deal. What happens if soccer is a big success and the ratings multiply? The numerous sports networks will bid up the price of the rights and NBCU will either lose them or be forced to give up more value. The better NBCU premiere league soccer does, the stronger the bidding war for the next rights. NBCU may very well be able to highlight their partnership benefits and win the rights, but it is going to have to pay as much as anyone else most likely.
I think the question that will ultimately answer if this is a good deal for NBCU is Can this expand beyond the game? Will people watch nightly highlight shows? Will people use their soccer apps? I think NBCU is taking a calculated risk here and I think it is a smart move. They need content and if it becomes a hit, NBCU could have a nice place in the soccer market. Success will not be easy but I think NBCU has the resources (financial, marketing, production) that make the risk worthwhile.
*http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/richard_deitsch/10/28/nbc-confirms-epl-deal/index.html