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Distressed Debt: What is it and why should a value investor care?
We define “distressed debt” as fixed obligations for which timely payment of interest and principal have stopped, are unlikely or are in serious doubt. Such obligations typically trade for dimes, nickels or pennies on the dollar. While legally these obligations remain debt, their precarious circumstances often cause them to exhibit the price volatility one would associate with stocks rather than bonds. Accordingly, we view them as “fair game” for any serious investor in undervalued stocks.
Companies do not typically issue distressed debt. Most companies that issue securities to the public have an appropriate balance of equity and debt, the market value of which are equal to the value of the company’s business. For example. let’s consider a retailer that generates $50 million of operating income. At a multiple of 8x, the retailer is worth $400 million. The market value of the company’s capital sources are also equal to $400 million. In this case, the company has been financed with $150 million of debt and $250 million of equity:
Now let’s imagine that the company is doing really well and profits grow to $75 million. At a multiple of 8x, the company is now worth $600 million:
We see that the value of the retail business is now greater than the original value of the debt and the equity combined. The value of the debt remains the same at $150 million. The value of the equity is the remainder ($450 million).
Now let’s imagine what happens if the company’s profits fall all the way to $30 million. At 8x, the company is worth $240 million:
The debt remains fixed with a value of $150 million. The value of the equity accounts for the remainder of the business value ($90 million, which is $240 million less the $150 million of debt).
Now let’s imagine that the business takes a further turn for the worse and operating profit drops to just $10 million. At this point, the company’s interest expense could be approximately equal to or maybe greater than the operating profit. Investors would have significant doubts as to the ability of the company to pay its debts.
At a multiple of 8x, the company’s business is worth just $80 million. Here’s where things get interesting:
The company’s business value is always equal to the fair value of its capital sources. To make the numbers balance, we first must assume that the equity is worth nothing. But zero equity value is insufficient to make the market value of the company’s capital sources equal to the market value of the business.
To make the numbers work, we must also mark down the value of the debt. In this case, the total value of the debt must equal the value of the business ($80 million). If the debt were to trade at 53.3 cents on the dollar, the $150 million would be worth only $80 million.
This is the kind of situation that qualifies as distressed debt. If one were to invest in such an opportunity, one would hope that the situation evolves in one of several positive directions. Perhaps new management successfully improves the profitability of the business, or maybe the company can sell some assets and pay down debt, or maybe a strategic acquirer purchases the company for a high price.