After 100 Days of Trump, Investors Rethink the Appeal of U.S. Markets
The first 100 days of Donald Trump’s presidency have delivered a turbulent ride for investors, prompting a reassessment of the traditional allure of U.S. assets. Amid sharp market swings, some are beginning to diversify internationally, questioning whether American markets can sustain their historic dominance.
While early rallies were fueled by optimism around trade negotiations, lingering uncertainty about policy direction and global relations has many investors hedging their bets. "We’re seeing real damage to the U.S.'s reputation among trade partners," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. "But whether it’s permanent remains unclear."
Despite a recent rebound in equities and the dollar following a softening of trade rhetoric, the S&P 500 remains down about 8% and the dollar index nearly 9% lower since Trump took office on January 20. As the 100-day milestone approaches on April 30, volatility persists.
Concerns over Trump’s trade policies, criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and fears over weakening Fed independence have fueled market jitters. Kenneth Griffin, CEO of Citadel, warned that careless policy could erode the standing of U.S. Treasuries — a backbone of the global financial system.
The White House defended its economic record, citing massive investment commitments from firms like TSMC, Apple, and Roche as a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy.
Yet signs of shifting sentiment are mounting. Exante Data’s Jens Nordvig noted a "structural move" as investors worldwide seek alternatives to dollar-denominated assets. The dollar’s share of global FX reserves has slid to 57.8% — its lowest in over a decade, IMF data show.
"Geopolitical tensions are pushing central banks to diversify reserves," said Gary Smith of Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
Though fears of an immediate collapse in demand for U.S. Treasuries seem premature, Oxford Economics pointed to broader trends of capital flowing out of the U.S. Spencer Hakimian of Tolou Capital Management said his fund is leaning more on gold and pulling back from long-term Treasuries, anticipating a "crisis of confidence" in dollar assets.
Ultra-wealthy individuals are also diversifying internationally, seeking to shield their wealth from U.S.-centric risks, according to Nuri Katz of APEX Capital Partners.
Goldman Sachs estimates foreign investors have offloaded about $60 billion in U.S. equities since March, with Europeans leading the pullback. Barclays echoed the trend but said there is little sign of a permanent shift away from U.S. dominance.
Some analysts argue this could simply be a correction after years of U.S. market outperformance. "The dollar was extremely strong for a long time — it’s now adjusting to more realistic levels," said Todd Rabold of Callan Family Office.
Others caution against counting the U.S. out too soon. Despite near-term challenges, the size, liquidity, and innovation ecosystem of the U.S. remain formidable advantages. "Structural strengths like deregulation and fiscal policy will continue to make the U.S. attractive to global capital," said Tara Hariharan of NWI Management.
In short, while the Trump era has introduced new volatility and raised critical questions about "Brand USA," the ultimate verdict from global investors may take years to fully unfold.
