Is Political Forecasting Broken?
So, we just saw political forecasting take another hit with 538's flawed predictions during Biden's highs and lows and the subsequent model revision for Harris. But it raises a BIGGER question: How much stock should we place in these election forecasts anyway?
With data scarcity and long prediction horizons—decades, even centuries—are we just clutching at straws with complex models and statistical assumptions? Evidence even suggests these forecasts can confuse voters or deter them from the polls altogether.
Are we putting too much faith in these probabilistic models? Do they do more harm than good by muddying the waters of voter perception and turnout? Let's debate. What are your thoughts on the role and reliability of election forecasting in modern politics?
