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Price Action Swing Trading (PAST) #Forex #Strategy Back-test - August 2014
good mornin pastors it's true here and just starting the recording of the video back testing the past strategy as I mentioned in the forum last night first of all I apologize in advance about the sound quality I'm just using the inbuilt microphone on my laptop so it's not great but hopefully it will be good enough to get some benefit from this and on that note I mean I hope there that we do get some benefit from seeing some back testing life I know that I find it very useful and especially with a strategy like the posh strategy where you could potentially be holding trades for you know at least the number of weeks if not months before you really see the full potential of a given trade and that can be very hard to test in a live environment because it takes a long time and pushing them to Clio so yeah that's the reason I'm doing it also keeps me honest with myself while I'm doing my back testing it means I don't cheat because I feel more accountable for wandering so I see reasons behind doing it I hope people think that helpful I have decided to do the dollar cad and the pairing yen and we'll do them simultaneously I phoned in the past they're just back testing one pair for this strategy and you can find yourself trying to trade something that you probably wouldn't do in a live environment just because you're only testing that P actually your only option is to trade that yeah and ideally I'd love to do it more than to attain but you can't see you all on a screen and it just takes too long to load the past data so I'm using 4x test or 2 software which basically mix means I can select a period in the past just upload the data and then essentially plate up and in real time which means we can get through a much longer period of time in a shorter period of time hence I'm doing it that way rather than just scrolling back through charts and meta to dove which I think that's really easy just to see the one is a dead work so for example here you've got that pin bar up here you can see that what you'd maybe pretend you were here to be betrayed in that and however let's get started so dollar cad and Perry again I'm gonna start by doing a little bit of analysis on the monthly chart you got flip the zone here so it was support here turned to resistance here and it looks as if it's rejecting this level again on the monthly there was our monthly downtrend well and truly broken back here so looks like they're sent by the current and place action is it's indicating is going up but we do have some big whacks at this level here so short me be on the cards time will tail on the yen pay again there's a level here and we've also got the beginnings draw a trendline down there we ever come back up to test this and it may be interested in shorts at that level as well get another this is a zone here we have interest and sharks and gone back to the start of the data that I have available to me but just yet and this is the January 2009 bettery them starting one for both of these pairs that's a dollar cad on to the weekly chart and if we scroll a bit here we can see that there is a trend line that can be drawn up there and clearly struggling at these levels higher up I'm just gonna clean this up so the focuses of today monthly trend line it's going to be brainy color and look what ran line it's going to be this crimson color I will use daily trend lines is green for our train lines as a blue color and I really realized as an orange color just I find it helps keep me consistent and in it when I'm in the lower temp in charts I know for trade mines I'm at and back to the monthly so this was a monthly horizontal line and this is a liquid horizontal line as well ok so a big strong move up here on the weekly chart as well so quite happy with those levels I know that and Nigel has discussed in the forum that he doesn't pay too much attention to we're there the signal candle happens on the higher time frame church but personally I I quite liked to look at that and I just gives me a reason that I think that something might be about to turn and but each to their own right so looking at them side by side let's start along so pressing this button here I just skip forward a week at a time then Jen big strong move down on the pen game here small Pena struggling to close below this level here this is not a good enough preceding trend for me it may very well work a but I'm more interested in the parent the end there at that particular time so let's just get a new chart up we'll start with daily so the daily we can see that broken today we don't rent and we're consolidating here footer trained me that we can potentially trade from see presenting on the ever nothing really any better than footer but might get better entry so okay so this is the weekly signal I'm trading here on the pen again we'll skip forward now ever buy our Oh big gap there by looks of things or whatever weekend but it's a bear it's fresh camp of the barrack and also I would leave that alone now I'm getting interested there was a weak little thing still ok I'm not doing with the dollar cat at the moment right potential here for a trade to go long I'm going to use half a lot for each of my trades and today in this testing session I've started with a balance of ten thousand so it's not it takes too long to try and work it for one percent of my K nodes for each individual trade so penny and we know is quite uh quite a high daily range I mean that there to the base of that pen is a hundred eleven pet she's really quite large for what we're looking to trade there is this unfilled gap moment so I'm not gonna enter yet is not looking good at the moment however there's this area down here which is really clear this up move started and we're at at the moment fifteen minute trendline pretty aggressive see on a 15-minute chart I look right at the base of the pen below very still look if they're giving up just yet okay another big move their card is looking okay but if I see this here I'm not gonna continue to trade that for the time being so back onto the repo charge okay dollar cad at the top of this range you've got better my preceding trend the assets is a ravika chart the dollar cad projecting from this level here could be looking at this is the daily nice stream window the daily chart of a head and shoulder a tape pattern here on the floor hourly chart nothing better on their early tracks were a break of the green daily trend line or a retest that i said blue Portola trend line could be interesting and again it's this pin bar on the weekly chart that I'm looking at it's not the best setup in the world but nonetheless this okay so scrolling on in the arrow which are now venture off the daily trend line so here we broken their the daily trendline albeit not usually convincingly weekly still looking okay the ends got nothing of interest at the moment I'd like to see a better break of this trendline yeah like that that looks like a nice break for our stop loss about this little here cell okay take an extra away for a loss never mind you like to trade another day now it's gone that it's too big so maybe every test that's laying here as possible are a new trend line developing their weekly stills look looks good for the drop this is the 15-minute chart the aggressive I think it's I really chart time to get to break-even definitely weekly still looking dish problem honest traders realistically how far is it gonna go it may come down to here but there's a lot of consolidation in here and regardless it's a break-even time we stopped the break even break even now I'm ain't try again see them again it seemed to be going anywhere particularly quickly couldn't be trying to come up sending line here that's maybe those looking to come up and retest again every Cuban some early lane is been broken late that late to the party not pick the interesting above the pen sale question is they want to continue to trade this pin bar here fifteen minute line has been broken try it again probably do the last attempt in this particular setup the time being enemy abandon that at the moment on a movie clip another pin on their wish you maybe I give up too soon go so happens if we get a nice signal around right here to go along I'd be interested okay but there is the monkey looking pretty bearish strong we could receive in turn didn't quite engulf that but we do have the rejection at least lower levels their coach eysan release wax up here is also was basing around the best level here so support the next one here like this keep you watch by looking at along what's the day we're showing okay there's a steep hill a tram line their gender in there and for that we can see a break-in retest of the swing broke it here and we tested in valiant one oh it's gonna give us much helps to ever make the interested at a scream trendline born an arrow alone cable add trendline and a break let's give that a shot buying and taking it hey those situations where you come into a break of a lane and you're already you've already come a fair distance on the early chart I don't like it when that happens so what probably should have done is wait for some sort of rejection from this daily trend line which there is lately to be something that was chalk that one up inside bear on a stick still looks ok on the week clip so I would consider again here we've got Everly train line which ties in nicely is this ascending train line that's been created since they're from the laws support my resistance turned support here as well let's try it by again here I stopped below the swing come on never mind trying again okay let's get to break-even note Rick okay stop there again you make two fold over again reacting to the daily trend line see the problem with this new turn line that I've drawn as this daily train line in the moment is holding up pretty well pretty aggressive to go along against into that so I'm gonna wait until the green one goes again okay so far okay quite well established in that position note 72 peps at the moment high of funding 55 that my balance looking it's taking me back into positive at the moment think don't win it over analyze on the short-term charge Thanks move on from the Requip Oh straight out for breakeven never mind another penny this level if I would be cheating they'd already moved past it okay let's look at this on the weekly pay again a nice and the weekly trend is down it's been up there for the past several weeks bearish engulfing do the possible short opportunity on this is the daily chart potential short of the blue line not working I've seen better setups to be honest but rejection of this high back in line the downtrend I would've liked to have seen up here to be able to be fair it's maybe was a shorter so I'll tell them let's just take it drink even pain I think looks as if I messed that pin bar on the weekly chart maybe the panel there's a retest you whatever we're not getting very far here but we're not losing a great deal either which is always good again at breakeven Clee supposing pinbar sold up here to go over that down there for me so we'll move forward on the weekly end and that is a very small pin box but it is label the dailies not looking too bad but I think what I'm going to do here is bring them up a thousand okay I think it's time to start looking at protecting what I've got on the pen yet so let's as a daily Tran link here I think stop yeah I still will they're pheasant egg dropper and it still gives me the chance that that could go a bit further aid we are just look at that but that one trade has done to my balance we were doing about 2,000 I think in the water claiming they eat thousand pounds up to 14,000 started at 10 so that just shows what one of those moves can do Hey right began to run it at aim a little bit here so we that's a nice-looking pin bar on the dollar cad let's try that probably call it quits for the day the chart put a line there not given us is it giving us an opportunity it might be so break a nice early train line still looks good how do we get back in that's the question couple of options there it's not the greatest break of a chain line I've ever seen but we click still pretty good right five pips top row up to eight so far so good on a daily an act but I totally even okay guys I think I'm gonna wrap up the snow for today's video I hope you've found interesting let's just have a look at their the overall results then so a total of sixteen trades only one was profitable 14 losses it doesn't tell you break even trades etc and I can't remember off the top of my head but I know and I think at least probably half of the losses we're really even water this which it's what it's all about guys and protect those protect your capital I had one profitable trade and that one profitable trade made me four and a half thousand pounds in profit so profit that the profit probability is basically the win rate which is seven percent seven percent when Ray and I still added fifty percent to there came nearly forty six point four five I think that in itself speaks volumes for the strategy and I don't even think technically traded that well it's just you get on a winner and you go with it and it just knocks all those losers over the park and this was what I was hoping was gonna happen in this video so I'm pleased it has we did have a better draw day and to begin with and that's to be expected and but something also to bear in mind is that I was using possession size that was probably too big for the account equity and so our drawdown would have been less and also the overall profit Bolivian legs and hope this has helped if you think it has then I'd be quite happy to do another video at some point it's I do the testing anyway so quite happy to record it anyway hope you enjoy guys and any feedback would be more than welcome on the forum and we'll speak to you soon happy trading Thanks










