How I’ll Handle Jill + Derick’s Data
Now That We Know They’re Using Birth Control.
Recently (on September 30, 2020), Jill (Duggar) + Derick Dillard revealed via a YouTube Q&A that they practice family planning, and use “non–hormonal birth control.” Frankly, the fact that this is worth discussing is a little absurd: In the U.S., 99% of sexually–active women report current or past contraceptive use. It’s truly, truly normal. But, as we all know... Jill wasn’t raised in a normal way; she was raised in a quiverfull (QF) cult, in which a woman’s worth is judged by her ability and willingness to rapidly and repeatedly reproduce. Given this... It is notable that Jill + Derick have taken charge of their family, and aren’t leaving its size “up to God.” Way to go, Jill + Derick.
Here on Duggar Data, Jill + Derick’s revelation isn’t just a point of discussion... It’s also a data issue. Should Jill + Derick’s data still factor into the Predictor? And, if so, how much of their data... All of it? Some of it? Should we remove Jill + Derick from the Predictor going forward, and stop making predictions on when and if they’ll have more children?
After giving it some thought, here’s the plan—
No Further Pregnancy Predictions
Going forward, the Predictor will not try to guess when Jill + Derick will add to their family. It’s disingenuous to apply the Predictor’s algorithm to them, since one of the Predictor’s key assumptions is that Predictor Couples don’t do family planning. The Predictor assumes Predictor Couples will steadily reproduce until they are rendered unable to do so, due to age–related infertility. And, by contrast, Jill + Derick aren’t steadily reproducing. They’re sporadically reproducing, and they manipulate their Procreative Pace by using or not using contraception. Derick says: “We stop using birth control whenever we want to get pregnant.”
All Data from Israel and Sam Still Factors In
Data from Jill’s first two pregnancies will still factor into Duggar Averages, just like any other data. I can’t imagine ever removing Israel’s data: He arrived ~9 Months after Jill + Derick’s Wedding, so it’s fairly clear that they weren’t using birth control, at that point. As for Sam... It’s less clear. It’s possible that Jill + Derick did use birth control, especially since they were in Central American in the midst of the Zika crisis. But at the same time, we don’t have confirmation. Absent confirmation from the Dillards, I’m going to assume they weren’t using birth control yet, and include Sam’s data in the Duggar Averages.
Also, just so there’s no confusion... All of Jill + Derick’s Relationship Data will also factor into Duggar Averages, just as it always has. No change there.
Some Data From Future Dillards Will Factor In
For Jill’s Future Pregnancies, if any, the Child Spacing data won’t be factored into the Duggar Average; however, all other data will be, since such data isn’t affected by birth control use. Specifically, Jill’s Future Pregnancies will count their data towards the Duggar Average on the following critical variables—
Pregnancy Announcement Timing
Birth Announcement Timing
Finally, Israel, Sam, and Future Dillards—biological or adopted—will ‘count’ as GrandDuggars... They count towards the Total # of GrandDuggars, and would receive a GrandDuggar #.
Future Dillards would also be included in Posts about non–quantitative data—e.g., place of birth or delivery complications—or quantitative but non–critical–to–the–Predictor data, like Birthweight / Length, Time of Birth, Labor Duration, etc.
Jill + Derick’s Data is Still Tracked, Discussed
Jill + Derick absolutely remain fair game for discussion on Duggar Data, since they’re obviously public figures, not to mention Jill is a Duggar. If Jill + Derick announce a pregnancy, Duggar Data will track the data, and also forecast the Sex Reveal and Delivery Date using my typical methods. These forecasts will be included in Posts such as “The Next 6 Months.” Nothing changes there.
Feel free to Ask about Jill + Derick and their data. Feel free to Ask “what ifs” involving Jill + Derick, if you’re so inclined. Really, Jill + Derick are still major figures on this blog. I’m not trying to change anything in that regard.
Hope this makes sense! Ask away if you have questions.
