2013 Baseball Projections
The 2013 baseball season is around the corner, so I figured I would come up with a projection for each team versus performance last year. The formula used is to start the 2012 Pythagorean projections, which takes the total run differential (RD) and calculates how many wins a team should have had. This helps to adjust for "luck". For example, Baltimore had 93 wins last season, but a total RD of +7 for the year. The average +7 RD team has 82 wins. According to the theory, Baltimore was very lucky in close games last year, which is in line with their 29-9 record in 1-loss games (against an expected record closer to .500). I then used WAR for players gained or lost during the off-season in trades, free agency, or injury. That, and a few extra steps, led me to 2013 projected win totals.
Largest gainers:
TOR +18.8 (Personnel gain)
CHC +11.5 (Personnel gain and record in 1-run games)
BOS +10.8 (Personnel gain and record in close)
Largest losers:
MIA -12.0 (Personnel loss)
BAL -10.5 (Record in close games)
ATL -10.4 (Personnel loss and record in 1-run games)
Also, for the gamblers out there, this method can identify Over/Under candidates.
Overs:
WAS - 2012: 98, O/U: 92.5, Projected: 100.7
ARI - 2012: 81, O/U: 81.5, Projected: 89.4
OAK - 2012: 94, O/U: 84.5, Projected: 90.9
Unders:
LAA - 2012: 89, O/U: 92.5, Projected: 84
MIN - 2012: 66, O/U: 68.5, Projected: 61.7
MIA - 2012: 69, O/U: 63.5, Projected: 57
Vegas seems to be afraid of the extremes this season. Over the last 10 years, there have been 53 teams (5.3 avg) with more than 93 wins and 19 teams (1.9 avg) with 63 or fewer wins. I don't think the league has moved towards parity very much. There are clearly some great teams and clearly some terrible ones. Especially that one that just gave away all their players... Hopefully that helps you out this season!
Data: http://www.baseball-reference.com/
Lines: bovada.lv