The Demographic Transition Model/Theory
Usefulness of the model:
It is a predictive model as it shows expected demographic changes
Provides a starting point for more sophisticated models to come
Provides some sort of explanation for demographic trends albeit mostly economic reasons
Can be used as a basis of comparison between countries
Limitations of the model:
Does not take into account migration. Actual change is determined by BR-DR plus minus migration, but the DTT only takes into account natural increase, which is BR-DR. Migration is an important component of countries with small populations e.g. Singapore because not only do migrants significantly add to the overall population count, they tend to be a young, fertile demographic that buffers the country’s BR
DTT is place-secific and too eurocentric, neglecting different cultural contexts apart from western countries --> Islamic countries who constitute 23% of the world’s population may not conform to this model because family is viewed as an important social grouping and early marriages are encouraged. Practice of polygamy may also result in large families and government policies will reflect and perpetuate prevailing beliefs and pratices
Government intervention can distort demographic patterns as they can have a strong say and influence over a country’s BR. For example, China’s one child policy has been strictly and perhaps even inhumanely enforced, successfully reducing 400million births since its implementation (however, it must be noted that China is run by an authoritarian regime which has the ability to severely clamp down on the country’s high BR, unlike the origin of the DTT)
Discrepancies in terms of the timescale. Countries do not progress at the same speed and thus have different rates and patterns of demographic transition. For example, in the 1960s, Singapore and Kenya were both in stage 2 of the DTT but by the 1990s, Singapore has transmitted into stage 4 while Kenya and much of Sub-Saharan Africa still remained at stage 2 OR another case in point is that while the UK and Scandinavia took approx 200 years to transition from stage 1 to 4, Germany and Japan took 75 years, less than half the amount of time taken to reach the same stage
DTT lacks a stage 5, which has now become widely conceptualised. The situation that DR>BR has been widely considered
External aid and modern developments : while population change in DCs may be fuelled by economic dynamics, the demographic change in LDCs is largely credited to external influences and imported ideas and technology. Post-war death rates in LDCs fell more sharply than DCs due to the spread and implementation of health measures and medical knowledge by Western countries and external organisations like UNICEF, WHO and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation instead of improvements in living standards because LDCs are still plagued by slums
DTT represents demography on a national scale and is thus unable to reflect regional and local nuances and variations in development and demographics.
DTT is unable to preempt and anticipated unexpected phenomena such as epidemics and war because the model is already preset according to what the western countries experienced
In all, DTT is a useful tool for theorising about population change with respect to the P, S, C and E factors and provide governments with some indicators of suitable population policies to implement and highlights expected population changes through time, for stable growth rates to be achieved.
Nevertheless, the DTT is not the most accurate predictor of population change as it is more of a descriptive (and outdated) theory than a prescriptive one. It is largely a theoretical representation of the pattern of population growth experienced by a small number of developed western counties but cannot be accurately applied globally.