WHAT'S HAPPENING:
*The Fox show from Denver pretty much delivered everything that could've been expected of it, particularly on the main card, which saw four fighters each make a name for themselves with fairly quick finishes. Leading the way was Valentina Shevchenko, who affirmed herself as bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes's top contender with a somewhat surprising second-round armbar win over Julianna Pena. It's not that Shevchenko won that was the surprise, since she was the betting favorite, but that she was able to tap out a tenacious grappler like Pena, who had actually been having a solid amount of success up to that point in the clinch and wrestling games. Shevchenko can seemingly do it all - she came into UFC with a strong muay thai background and her wrestling looked to be on point, but we hadn't seen much in terms of finishing ability, so this was a huge step. And UFC did well to have Nunes come into the cage after the fight for a pretty endearing showdown, as the two traded barbs back and forth in stilted English that was absolutely charming. That should be a hell of a fight, given how their first meeting went - Nunes had a bunch of success early, but Shevchenko took over for a one-sided third round, leading most to believe that Shevchenko would've won the fight if it went five rounds. So we'll see how it goes this time around.
*Well, good on Jorge Masvidal, as his plan worked perfectly. After beating Jake Ellenberger in early December, Masvidal called out Cerrone even though he was already booked, knowing that Cerrone would want to fight as soon as possible anyway, and he did indeed get that fight. And then Masvidal did the hard part, knocking out Cerrone basically twice in a little over a round to get the biggest win of his career and suddenly make himself a welterweight contender. It was mostly an even fight until late in the first round, when Masvidal was able to drop Cerrone right before the horn - Herb Dean pretty clearly stepped in before the round was over, but then insisted the fight was still headed to the second round...at which point Masvidal finished a clearly shaken Cerrone again. I do feel bad for Cerrone, particularly since Denver is his hometown, but this is the downside of taking as many fights as he does - though, on the flip side, he'll probably fight four more times this year and could easily find himself back as a contender by the time 2018 rolls around. As for Masvidal, he does seem to finally be more aggressive, which should serve him well, and he's suddenly got a ton of interesting matchups in the top tier of welterweights to make a run at the belt.
*The third big performance on the night belonged to Francis Ngannou, who more or less ran through Andrei Arlovski to establish himself as the next great hope at heavyweight. It'll be fascinating to see what the ceiling is for Ngannou - he's an athletic monster who's only been fighting for a little over three years, but he's improved rapidly from fight to fight, and while Arlovski is somewhat fragile at this point, he was a huge step up for Ngannou in terms of speed and craft, and the Cameroonian really had no problem with the challenge. I have no idea if Ngannou is ready to become a title contender, but I do know there's really nothing left for him to prove fighting guys outside of the top handful of the division, so it might as well be time to try. And the scary thing is, with him being just thirty years old (which is very young for heavyweight at the moment), he's got a few more years to keep improving and figuring things out.
*And the Fox card opened with a fourth excellent performance, this one by Alan Belcher protege Jason Knight, who beat Alex Caceres in fairly one-sided fashion leading up to a second-round submission. Like Shevchenko in the main event, the result wasn't as surprising as the finish, as Knight got the better of things on the feet and was able to jump into the grappling realm without much trouble, tapping out a talented, if mercurial vet. And then Knight more or less nailed the post-fight interview, praying to his late father before calling out Doo Ho Choi for what would be a hell of a brawl. Sounds good to me.
*The undercard wasn't quite as scintillating, but there was some interesting stuff on it. The biggest result was probably Raphael Assuncao winning a split decision over Aljamain Sterling to stay alive as a bantamweight contender, although it was a fairly boring fight that probably didn't get Assuncao any closer to a title shot. Sterling's extremely frustrating - a blue-chip wrestling-based prospect coming onto the scene, Sterling spent the first two rounds using a weird, low-volume range kicking game that just isn't effective, and probably lost him his previous fight against Bryan Caraway. I'd chalk it up to him not realizing what needs to be fixed, but then he went out and started mixing in some boxing in the third round, winning that frame rather easily and making one wonder exactly why he didn't do that the whole time. So that's two losses for Sterling that easily could've been wins, and I don't really see UFC matchmaking doing him much favors, since he might not be on the best terms with management after some contentious contract negotiations last year. Sigh. As far as individual performances, the best probably belonged to debuting light heavyweight Jordan Johnson, a wrestler who pretty much dominated Henrique da Silva en route to a decision win. Johnson stuck to what he was good at and looked like a top prospect in the process, though he's still fairly raw, so I'd just keep him treading water for a bit until he's ready to move up towards a title shot. In other results on the undercard, Jingliang Li knocked out newcomer Bobby Nash in a fun brawl that was the best fight on the card, Sam Alvey won the featured prelim over Nate Marquardt in yet another weird Alvey fight, and Eric Spicely tapped out Italian prospect Alessio Di Chirico in fairly short order. Spicely then called out Australian fan favorite Dan Kelly after the fight, making him a smart man - try and get that trip to Australia. And even the deeper prelims had some fun stuff, like Marcos Rogerio de Lima knocking out Jeremy Kimball in short order, and Alexandre Pantoja besting Eric Shelton in a battle of TUF 24 alums.
*Conor McGregor and UFC are still going back and forth. McGregor had his pay-per-view that was just him being interviewed by Ariel Helwani, and he said some stuff. And Dana was pretty much the promotional equivalent of "come at me, bro." There's still some interesting stuff that can happen, particularly if McGregor uses his boxing license and the Ali Act to get out of his UFC contract, but we're not there yet.
*So, Donald Trump's whole travel ban on Muslims. That's a thing. A pretty bad thing. MMA's always had some weirdness going on geopolitically (sup Dagestan), and this is the latest one, as nobody's sure how this is going to affect the foreign-born fighters on the UFC roster. At the only moment, the only pressing case is Gegard Mousasi, who's slated to fight Chris Weidman in Buffalo this April, but was born in Iran and may not be allowed to enter the country despite living in the Netherlands since the age of four. Wheee fun.
*World Series of Fighting continues to just be a weird thing, as it's just sort of lurched on as a money pit for whatever shadowy investors are involved at the moment, putting on shows that don't really draw anyone, but still managing to pay some of their top fighters (typically the ones also managed by former matchmaker/WSOF executive/possible terrorist Ali Abdelaziz) way above market value. Anyway, WSOF got bailed out yet again by a new investor group, as they've somehow managed to raise $25 million to sell sixty percent of the company, despite most of their champions now being free agents and the fact that they don't even own their tape library, which may have some value. MMA is a weird sport.
*Comings and goings! Per a tweet by UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby, it looks like Al Iaquinta is headed back to the Octagon after basically retiring due to a falling out with management. Iaquinta was a top lightweight contender and his contract was up after a controversial April 2015 win over Jorge Masvidal, where the crowd booed the decision and Iaquinta decided to respond by cursing them out. He then suffered a major knee injury in training, and by mid-2016, all rumors had Iaquinta, a Long Island native, returning against Thiago Alves on the Madison Square Garden show. But Iaquinta never signed a new contract - essentially, Iaquinta argued to UFC that his injury had cascaded from a smaller knee injury suffered in this days on The Ultimate Fighter, while UFC disagreed and basically refused to cover it. Iaquinta eventually got his way, but then felt slighted when UFC fined him for missing a mandatory fighter summit, even though Iaquinta had made it clear he couldn't attend due to some BJJ teaching obligations. After all this, Iaquinta got a new offer, basically decided the money wasn't worth the trouble, and then decided to just call it quits and work as a real estate agent. But now, about six months later, it looks like things have been patched up, and we'll finally see Iaquinta back. On the flip side, UFC may be losing three pretty solid fighters, as welterweights Lorenz Larkin and Rick Story, as well as light heavyweight Misha Cirkunov, were removed from UFC's official rankings since they're no longer considered "under contract," having turned down the chance to re-sign with the company. Basically, this doesn't mean they're free and clear and done with UFC, but rather means they're in a form of restricted free agency, where they can only negotiate with UFC for a bit, and then UFC is free to match any offer one of the three gets after that. Larkin isn't a surprise, since that was well-publicized, and even though he's finally looking like the top contender most expected him to be, it wouldn't be a shock if he left, since he reportedly has a good relationship with his former boss at Strikeforce, current Bellator president Scott Coker. Story, frankly, I could see UFC taking or leaving - he's a solid top ten-to-fifteen fighter and can ably fill a high-card slot, but he's not particularly flashy or exciting. Cirkunov is the really fascinating one, since after his win over Nikita Krylov, he might be the best rising prospect at 205 at the moment. Add in the fact that he's well-known in the Canadian scene after emigrating to Toronto from Latvia, and he's really someone UFC should want to hang on to, and it'll be interesting to see if Bellator decides to make a run at him. Oddly, Ryan Bader is still present in the rankings, although he's openly talked about how this week is when Bellator can finally give him an official offer - I wonder if this is a sign that he's already quietly re-signed with the promotion.
*And as almost always nowadays, we end with a whole bunch of drug stuff. We have a race to see who becomes the first three-time drug test failure in the USADA era, as George Sullivan and Ricardo Abreu were both popped for the second time this past week. Sullivan was set to return from suspension and face Randy Brown at UFC 208, but apparently failed a test for clomiphene, a fertility drug that's often used to boost testosterone levels after someone cycles off of steroids - it's the same thing Brock Lesnar failed for, and actually, the same thing that Jon Jones's infamous "dick pills" were tainted with. Anyway, Sullivan has claimed he's trying to have kids and is applying for a retroactive exemption, but given that clomiphene isn't apparently even FDA-approved, good luck with that. As for Abreu, I'm just impressed, since the Brazilian middleweight was already under suspension until the summer of 2018 and I guess just didn't realize he could still be tested. And we got one more failure this past week, as Texan heavyweight Justin Ledet was quietly pulled from this Houston card after popping for something yet to be disclosed. And lastly, Brazilian lightweight Felipe Olivieri has been sentenced to a two-year suspension for a failed January 2016 drug test.
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BOOKINGS:
*Some really interesting fights got booked, but no really big fights, save the rumors being confirmed that the Daniel Cormier/Anthony Johnson rematch for the light heavyweight title will in fact take place at UFC 210 in Buffalo this April. In a way, it's kind of amazing how this all worked out with Jon Jones on the shelf, since, well, Cormier stayed injured long enough that we never really had to dip into the well of whatever contenders UFC would have to create in such a thin division past Johnson. They also added three solid undercard bouts, though none figure to be on the main card - light heavyweights Patrick Cummins and Jan Blachowicz squaring off (and both are ranked, if you need more proof of 205 being a thin division), local featherweight Shane Burgos taking on Boston's Charles Rosa, and an interesting fight between bantamweight prospects Katlyn Chookagian and Irene Aldana.
*UFC keeps adding fights to the March card in Fortaleza, Brazil, and it's looking like by far the best TV card of the first half of 2016. There was already some interesting stuff on it, but we get two more good fights, with lightweights Francisco Trinaldo and Kevin Lee squaring off, as well as a UFC 207 rematch between Tim Means and Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira. I feel a bit bad for Trinaldo, since at 38, time is running out, and despite a seven-fight win streak, UFC hasn't really moved up the ladder, but a bout against Lee, one of the division's top young prospects, should be an excellent affair. And the Means/Oliveira fight in December was really fun while it lasted, until Means hit a controversial illegal knee that got the fight turned into a no contest. Add in two more decent undercard fights, with welterweights Sergio Moraes and Max Griffin, as well as featherweights Godofredo Pepey and Kyle Bochniak, and the card's looking like a good one.
*So, UFC kind of pissed off their British fanbase, as tickets went on sale for the upcoming London card without an announced main event, and then UFC just decided to promote the already-announced light heavyweight bout between Jimi Manuwa and Corey Anderson to that spot after the fact. Reportedly, the initial plan was Alexander Gustafsson against Ryan Bader, but Gustafsson is hurt and Bader is not yet back under contract, so UFC just went with this due to a lack of other options. I also heard some stuff that Anthony Pettis against Mairbek Taisumov, a fight that Joe Rogan dropped sometime around UFC 207, was slated for this card, but it's unclear what's going on there, since Taisumov has been agitating on social media for Pettis to go ahead and sign a contract. Maybe that'll be your co-main event, as there's not really a viable one at the moment and the card still has one or two open spots for fights.
*Speaking of disappointing cards, UFC 208, which was initially an exciting card on paper despite a pretty bad main event marquee-wise, is slowly continuing to get gutted. Three more fighters are off the card - flyweight Neil Seery was forced off due to the death of his mother-in-law, and heavyweight Luis Henrique wasn't cleared to fight following eye surgery for his nearsightedness, so into the fray step two UFC newcomers - Jarred Brooks steps in to fight Ian McCall, and Justin Willis steps in to fight Marcin Tybura. Alright then. And as mentioned above, welterweight George Sullivan is also off this card due to a drug test failure, but it's unclear if UFC is still seeking a replacement to face Randy Brown, who really should stay on this card as an exciting local product.
*And a few odds and ends - Rashad Evans will maybe, finally, make his debut at middleweight, and it looks to be a weird one, as he'll face Australian Dan Kelly at UFC 209 this March. Kelly's near forty with bad knees, but the decorated judoka still gets it done through sheer force of will and good old-fashioned dad strength, so it's actually a pretty solid test to see exactly what Evans has left, even if it's a bit concerning that it's come to this. And while UFC has yet to officially announce their second quarter schedule, two more events have already leaked out, as they're heading to Kansas City on April 15th, and making their promotional debut in Denmark, as UFC: Copenhagen is happening on May 27th. The broadcasts for each card haven't been announced, but the Kansas City date lines up to be a Fox card, and it already has its first fight, as Kansas City native Tim Elliott is apparently not heading to bantamweight after losing to Demetrious Johnson after all, and instead will face Louis Smolka at 125. And the Denmark card means that for the first time in a while, UFC will not be running a pay-per-view or a show in Vegas over Memorial Day weekend - and that card has a fight as well, as Danish heavyweight Christian Colombo will take on Polish vet Damian Grabowski in a fight between two guys in search of their first UFC win.
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ROSTER CUTS:
1) Ali Bagautinov (15-6 overall, 4-3 UFC, last fought 11/19/16, L vs. Kyoji Horiguchi):
UFC let two ranked flyweights walk this past week, and Bagautinov's the more surprising of the two, even if you could tell by his match placement that he was a bit out of favor. Bagautinov, a popular vet in his native Dagestan, made an impact pretty much immediately upon his UFC debut, going on a three-fight win streak that included one-sided wins over Tim Elliott and John Lineker and earning himself a title shot at Demetrious Johnson. Like everyone else, Bagautinov pretty much couldn't do anything with Johnson, and even worse, he failed a drug test afterwards, and that pretty much derailed the rest of his UFC career. Outside of a weird fight against prospect Geane Herrera that Bagautinov won, UFC pretty much used the Russian as a keep-busy fight against top contenders like Joseph Benavidez and Kyoji Horiguchi, and after going 1-2 post-drug suspension, I guess UFC figured he had outlived his usefulness. A shame, though, since losing a guy like Bagautinov (and Makovsky below) really does hurt the depth of UFC's flyweight division.
2) Zach Makovsky (19-8 overall, 3-4 UFC, last fought 12/10/16, L vs. Dustin Ortiz):
Makovsky being let go is a damaging cut for the flyweight division, but it wasn't a surprising once, since most figured the fight between him and Ortiz was loser leaves town. Bellator surprisingly cut Makovsky in 2013 - he was the promotion's first bantamweight champion, and they let him go after only one loss following him dropping his belt - but he cut down to flyweight and caught on with UFC pretty quickly, earning wins over Scott Jorgensen and Josh Sampo. Makovsky was a decent all-around fighter, particularly in terms of wrestling, but the middle is a hard place to be in UFC's flyweight division. Essentially, you have a few scrubs, but outside of that, there's really no easy fights once you're a relevant fighter, and like Bagautinov, just kept racking up the losses even though they were against really good competition.
3) Aisling Daly (16-6 overall, 2-1 UFC, last fought 10/24/15, W vs. Ericka Almeida):
Daly suddenly announced her retirement while in the midst of recovering from injury, as a scan of her brain apparently uncovered a hemorrhage she had suffered at some point while training, forcing a premature end to her career. Daly's probably a bit underrated as a pioneer, since the Irishwoman was one of the first female fighters to really make her name in Europe, and really the first Irish fighter to make a global name for themselves period, racking up a 9-0 record wherever she could find fights before a brief stint in Bellator. It may just be my heritage showing, but I've always liked Daly because she was just so, well, Irish - she suffered a three-fight losing streak in 2012 and then proceeded to take a year off to battle her issues with depression, and, well, it really doesn't get more Irish than that. Daly had a solid showing on season 20 of TUF and a solid showing in UFC thereafter thanks to her solid grappling game, and honestly, she probably got the best sendoff you could probably ask for, as she was the big Irish favorite on UFC's October 2015 card in Dublin, and the ovation both for her entrance and her subsequent win over Ericka Almeida was one of the highlights of the show. And even her postfight interview was just so...wonderfully touched with Irish bleakness, as the big McGregor/Brandao card with all her SBG teammates took place during her time in the house, and she likened watching it to seeing a child grow up and no longer being able to talk to them. Anyway, Daly seems at peace with the decision, and she'll go on as a grappling coach for SBG, so I wish her well.
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UPCOMING UFC SHOWS:
2/11 - UFC 208 - Brooklyn, NY - Germaine de Randamie vs. Holly Holm, Derek Brunson vs. Anderson Silva
2/19 - UFC Fight Night 105 - Halifax, NS - Travis Browne vs. Derrick Lewis, Johny Hendricks vs. Hector Lombard
3/4 - UFC 209 - Las Vegas, NV - Tyron Woodley (c) vs. Stephen Thompson, Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov, Mark Hunt vs. Alistair Overeem
3/11 - UFC Fight Night 106 - Fortaleza, Brazil - Vitor Belfort vs. Kelvin Gastelum, Edson Barboza vs. Beneil Dariush, Mauricio Rua vs. Gian Villante
3/18 - UFC Fight Night 107 - London, England - Corey Anderson vs. Jimi Manuwa
4/8 - UFC 210 - Buffalo, NY - Daniel Cormier (c) vs. Anthony Johnson, Gegard Mousasi vs. Chris Weidman
4/15 - UFC TBA - Kansas City, MO - Tim Elliott vs. Louis Smolka
5/13 - UFC 211 - Dallas, TX - Stipe Miocic (c) vs. Junior dos Santos
5/27 - UFC TBA - Copenhagen, Denmark - Christian Colombo vs. Damian Grabowski
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UFC Fight Night 104 - February 4, 2017 - Toyota Center - Houston, Texas
2017 has already seen UFC break with a few traditions - MLK weekend was in Phoenix instead of Boston, and here UFC breaks a streak of a few years, as the company is eschewing a pay-per-view over Super Bowl weekend in favor of a FS1 show in Houston, where the big game is taking place. And while this continues this year's trend of being somewhat low-wattage in terms of star power, it should be a hell of a show, as this is one of those cards where UFC has matched up a bunch of action fighters. Even past the headliner, which is the return of one of the better action fighters in recent history, "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung, there's a solid mix of prospects and just outright showcase performances that should make for a fun night of violence. Good stuff.
MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1 - 10:00 PM ET):
Featherweight: (#9) Dennis Bermudez vs. Chan Sung Jung
Women's Strawweight: (#12) Alexa Grasso vs. Felice Herrig
Lightweight: Abel Trujillo vs. James Vick
Light Heavyweight: (#6) Ovince St. Preux vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Heavyweight: Marcel Fortuna vs. Anthony Hamilton
Women's Strawweight: (#5) Jessica Andrade vs. Angela Hill
PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1 - 8:00 PM ET):
Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Adam Milstead
Featherweight: Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Chas Skelly
Bantamweight: Ricardo Ramos vs. Michinori Tanaka
Women's Strawweight: (#6) Tecia Torres vs. Bec Rawlings
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 7:00 PM ET):
Welterweight: Alex Morono vs. Niko Price
Light Heavyweight: Daniel Jolly vs. Khalil Rountree
THE RUNDOWN:
Dennis Bermudez (16-5 overall, 9-3 UFC) vs. Chan Sung Jung (13-4 overall, 3-1 UFC, 0-2 WEC):
It's been about three and a half years, but finally the day has come. "The Korean Zombie" is back. Chan Sung Jung became a bit of a phenomenon within the MMA bubble back in 2010 - he made his stateside debut in the featured prelim of WEC's lone pay-per-view and wound up having one of the best MMA fights of all time against Leonard Garcia, an absolute war that Jung lost in what was considered a bit of a robbery. But between the all-out action style of Jung and the fact that he has one of the best MMA nicknames of all time, the legend of "The Korean Zombie" was born, and Zuffa had a bit of a minor star on their hands. After surprisingly losing via knockout to George Roop in his only other WEC fight, Jung picked up where he left off with UFC - almost literally in fact, since UFC decided to rematch him with Garcia in a fight that wasn't quite as great as the first, but did give us the first and only twister submission in UFC history, as Jung basically tied Garcia into a pretzel. And then Jung made history a few more times, first knocking out Mark Hominick in just seven seconds to tie the fastest knockout in UFC history, and then putting on the consensus 2012 fight of the year in a war over Dustin Poirier. Despite a year-long injury layoff after that fight, Jung's notoriety still earned him a title shot at Jose Aldo, although he wasn't really able to do much with the champ, eventually losing in the fourth round after badly dislocating his shoulder. And just as Jung was ready to return, he was forced to serve his mandatory two years in the Korean military, resulting in this 42-month layoff. And UFC isn't really doing Jung any favors in his comeback, as while this should be a fun fight (hell, of course it should be, it's a Chan Sung Jung fight), Dennis Bermudez is a dangerous fringe contender. Bermudez looked to be close to a title shot by mid-2014, as he capped off a seven-fight win streak with a submission over Clay Guida, but once he got moved into the ranks of true contenders, some defensive holes became apparent. Ricardo Lamas handled Bermudez rather easily, stunning him with a jab before jumping onto a submission, and Bermudez was winning a fight with Jeremy Stephens rather handily before Stephens uncorked a beautiful flying knee from out of nowhere that gave him a sudden comeback win. It doesn't seem to be a case of Bermudez having a glass jaw so much as just defensive unawareness, but at any rate, Bermudez has since chosen to play it a bit safer, relying on his wrestling to beat Tatsuya Kawajiri and Rony Jason, though the latter did have some success with his submission game. As far as the fight goes, it's absolutely fascinating, particularly since Jung is such a question mark. Going back over his last few fights, I got reminded of exactly how dangerous Jung is a grappler - at least in my mind, the first thing that pops into my head for "The Korean Zombie" is back and forth striking wars, but particularly the Poirier fight showed that Jung is a dangerous, creative guy on the ground, and that the risky offense doesn't stop once the Zombie is on his back. So that makes it a really tricky fight for Bermudez - the two striking back and forth would probably spark into a crazy war that could go either way, but Bermudez relying on his theoretically safer wrestling game might not be all that safe, particularly since Bermudez has shown that he can be caught defensively unaware on the ground as well. Still, I kind of have to favor Bermudez to take this by decision, just because of the uncertainty around Jung - and while it does look like a lot of his game will still translate into the current landscape, there's just the fact that we haven't seen Jung fight since mid-2013, and things have changed a hell of a lot since then. But it should be a fun one - again, it's a Chan Sung Jung fight, and Bermudez has enough defensive flaws that Jung suddenly changing the momentum and getting a win wouldn't be a surprise.
Alexa Grasso (9-0 overall, 1-0 UFC, 4-0 Invicta) vs. Felice Herrig (11-6 overall, 2-1 UFC, 0-1 Invicta, 3-0 Bellator):
Even though it's honestly probably the third-most relevant of three strawweight fights on this card in terms of pure sport, the positioning shows that UFC is fully behind Alexa Grasso, and it's hard to blame them. Grasso has the looks, personality and skill to be one of UFC's big Mexican stars, and they're pretty much dusting off the Paige VanZant playbook in order to promote her, right down to making her second UFC fight against Felice Herrig. Grasso immediately became a prospect to watch upon her Invicta debut in 2014, and she's done nothing to dissuade that, putting on a fight of the year contender in 2015 against Mizuki Inoue and pretty much dominating all her competition. Grasso comes from a boxing family, and that's where she excels, possessing an excellent sense of distance and combinations, and after an injury layoff, she returned in 2016 and even showed off a bit of wrestling skill, shutting down Jodie Isquibel's wrestling game and imposing her own a bit. After a bit of a showcase bout in her UFC debut over Heather Jo Clark, Grasso now faces Herrig, who's strictly in the gatekeeper role, but might be Grasso's toughest test yet. Herrig's more known for her personality than anything - in the days when strawweight was still getting off the ground, Herrig made a bit of a name for herself by wearing provocative clothing and all sorts of weird outfits, and her stint on TUF 20 established her as a bit of a motor-mouth (which, having met her, I can also confirm was not editing) - but as far as in the cage, she's a solid, game wrestler-slash-grappler. That combination of skills made her a perfect stepping stone for VanZant, and essentially the same for Grasso here, but against lower-level foes like Lisa Ellis and Kailin Curran, Herrig has been able to latch on a submission without much trouble. This figures to be another Grasso showcase, so I'll pick her to win by decision, though there's the chance she gets so much momentum going on the feet that the referee steps in and stops it late, but there is the caveat that Herrig is probably the best grappler Grasso has faced, so there's a chance that if Grasso turns out to be awful on the ground, that gets exposed here. But still, I'm fairly comfortable picking the potential Mexican star.
Abel Trujillo (15-6 [1] overall, 6-2 [1] UFC) vs. James Vick (9-1 overall, 5-1 UFC):
This fight was thrown together after both men's original opponents got hurt, and it kind of shows, since this is a weird one. Abel Trujillo's carved out a bit of a niche as a berserker of an action fighter, but it's still hard to root for him, given that he has a fairly distressing history of domestic violence. As far as in the cage goes, Trujillo's seemingly learned to pace himself, as he initially had the rep of being strong for one round before gassing out, but he's still one of the purest examples of the "bully" mentality in MMA. Essentially, when Trujillo has the advantage, he's absolutely frightening, an explosive power puncher and takedown artist that's capable of scoring the finish at any moment. But when things don't go Trujillo's way, he has a bad tendency to cave in, and when guys like Tony Ferguson and Gleison Tibau have gotten the advantage, Trujillo has just sort of panicked and looked for a way out. So Trujillo's a fairly boom-and-bust fighter, and adding to the potential variance of this fight is that, even after almost five years in the UFC, it's still unclear how good James Vick is. The Texan came out of nowhere to make the semifinals of TUF 15 before falling to Michael Chiesa, and looked like an interesting prospect, thanks to his ridiculously long and tall frame for lightweight - Vick is 6'3", and as an example, he'll have a seven-inch height and six-inch reach advantage over Trujillo. But Vick's career settled into a weird pattern - for one thing, he'd often get hurt and have to spend a year between fights, and even though he racked up wins, UFC just never really did anything with him, just matching him against rising, unproven prospects. I forget exactly where I heard the analogy (I believe it was from Connor Reubusch, who does some good work breaking down the technical aspects of MMA), but it was like Vick wasn't moving up the ladder, but instead just sort of hiding behind the ladder and shoving other people off as they tried to move up themselves. But after derailing another prospect, in this case Glaico Franca, Vick finally got a legit fight in a late-notice bout against Beneil Dariush, and, well, he pretty much got smoked, as Dariush outboxed him and eventually knocked him out in brutal fashion. But, then again, Dariush is looking like a fringe title contender at the moment, so there's still a wide range as far as where Vick stands in the lightweight division. So, yeah, anything could happen here, but I'm picking Trujillo by decision, since I'm not exactly Vick will be able to deal with Trujillo's aggression and physicality enough to turn the tide. That said, Vick could just keep Trujillo at a distance and pick him apart, or, and this may be even more likely, I could see Vick continuing his trend of accidentally poking his opponents in the eyes, and that being enough to demoralize Trujillo and give Vick the advantage. But I'll stick with Trujillo by decision as my pick, though this is one of those bouts that is more or less a coin flip.
Ovince St. Preux (19-9 overall, 7-4 UFC, 6-1 Strikeforce) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (12-1 overall, 1-1 Bellator):
Well, light heavyweight needs bodies, and I guess we're going to continue to try with Ovince St. Preux, as this figured to be a bounce-back win against a late injury replacement. St. Preux was an interesting prospect for a while - a former linebacker for the University of Tennessee, St. Preux is a top-flight athlete, and Strikeforce and UFC both just let him move slowly up the ladder and rack up showcase wins. St. Preux chose to remain involved with the University of Tennessee community, continuing to train in Knoxville rather than seek out a bigger camp, and the result has been St. Preux developing a weird game, built around unorthodox striking and strange submissions where it all kind of works thanks to St. Preux's athleticism, but doesn't really fit together in any sort of cogent way. And that's gotten exploited badly as St. Preux has faced upper-level competition - outside of a quick knockout of Shogun Rua, most of St. Preux's big fights have been one-sided losses - Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira just schooled him with grappling, Jon Jones treated him as a glorified sparring partner, and Jimi Manuwa put his lights out in October. It's probably time to move on from any thoughts of St. Preux becoming a top-flight fighter anymore, particularly since he's about to turn 34, and his athleticism-dependent style may go downhill quickly as he ages, but light heavyweight is also a thin enough division that OSP is probably going to remain a concern one way or another. Anyway, he faces Volkan Oezdemir, who becomes UFC's first Swiss fighter - Oezdemir apparently has a background in muay thai, but the fights that I've watched have seen him focus on taking his opponents down, where he's aggressive, but has trouble keeping his foes on the mat once he has them there. There's a chance Oezdemir can still do something with that - St. Preux, again, just sort of relies on his athleticism to get up after he's taken down and leaves some holes in doing so - but I just really don't see anything from Oezdemir that suggests he can compete with St. Preux's athleticism and power, unless St. Preux is hitting the decline phase even moreso than it looks like. I'll call for St. Preux to get a first-round knockout, but if he doesn't, this could be a bit of a slog.
Marcel Fortuna (8-1 overall) vs. Anthony Hamilton (15-6 overall, 3-4 UFC):
This is certainly happening. In a heavyweight division where everyone is pretty much either a contender by default or just hot garbage, Anthony Hamilton seems to be one of the few who's just sort of a guy. He's just a really physically big dude who can do a little bit of everything, and his UFC record places him squarely as a middle-of-the-road gatekeeper - he's had no problem with lower-level guys like Ruan Potts and Damian Grabowski who just aren't at a UFC level, but anyone decent has beaten him, including Francis Ngannou, who tapped him out in his last fight. This was a really late addition to the card, so Hamilton is facing UFC newcomer and inflated light heavyweight Marcel Fortuna, a Brazilian who trains out of California. Fortuna hasn't fought in about a year and a half, as his only MMA action of 2016 was trying out for the Jedrzejczyk/Gadelha season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he lost a close decision to Cory Hendricks before even getting into the house. I'm a little surprised UFC didn't at least wait for Fortuna to win a fight or two somewhere else before taking him on, but I can see what they liked looking at film, since Fortuna has a BJJ background and looks pretty solid as a wrestler/grappler against a middling slate of competition. But I don't really think he can do much here - Fortuna's game is extremely one-dimensional, and he had trouble even taking down Hendricks with Hendricks's size and athleticism. And while Hamilton may not be quite as athletic, he's a much, much bigger dude than the 205ers (and some converted middleweights) that Fortuna was having success against on the regional scene. I have no idea how good Fortuna's chin is, but I figure he'll be overwhelmed here, and I'll just call for Hamilton to get the first-round knockout.
Jessica Andrade (15-5 overall, 6-3 UFC) vs. Angela Hill (6-2 overall, 1-2 UFC, 4-0 Invicta):
From a sporting standpoint, this is probably the most important fight on the show, since Jessica Andrade is the assumed next contender for Joanna Jedrzejczyk's strawweight belt, and Angela Hill will be right there if she scores the upset in her UFC return. Andrade was somewhat mercurial during her time at bantamweight - she'd look dominant against overmatched competition and could seemingly do a bit of everything, but she'd suffer some bad losses, getting tapped out rather easily by Marion Reneau and Raquel Pennington. Strawweight didn't really seem like an option - even though Andrade was short for the division, she seemed to be too thickly muscled to cut much weight, but she took about nine months off to cut down to 115, and the results have been outstanding. Andrade has been an absolute powerhouse, overpowering Jessica Penne on the feet and just bulling Joanne Calderwood in the grappling game, looking like one of the most dangerous physical threats in the division. Meanwhile, Hill's had a weird path here, as I'm not exactly sure what the hell UFC was trying to do with her in her first stint with the promotion. Hill was part of the cast for TUF 20, which was a tournament to crown UFC's inaugural champion, even if she didn't really belong there - she was a 1-0 striker at the time, and while she showed some potential and some personality, it's hard not to see her inclusion as tokenism at worst or just TV execs wanting a marketable face on the show at best. And then, after a solid win over Emily Kagan, UFC pretty much threw her to the wolves, putting a 2-0 fighter against two of the top fighters in the division, as Tecia Torres out-wrestled her and Rose Namajunas choked her out. And then UFC cut her, which really was a bad look, since it looked like they had pretty much failed in developing what could've been a marketable, exciting prospect. But Hill landed in Invicta quickly thereafter and had a breakout 2016, going 4-0, showing greatly improved grappling defense, and taking Invicta's strawweight belt from Livia Renata Souza, who was looking like the next big thing at 115. After one title defense, Hill re-signed with UFC, and after some issues with her getting cleared to return by USADA, her fight with Andrade gets moved from UFC 207 to here. It should be an interesting one, though I favor Andrade pretty handily - the big story is going to be more how much Hill's improvements shine through rather than expecting her to win. I always think of Hill as taller and rangier than she actually is (maybe it's the hair, although she's gone with a close fade for this fight), but she'll still have that advantage on the stout Andrade, so I could see Hill having some success picking her apart at range. But I'm not really sure how Hill will handle Andrade's power if she's able to get through, and the grappling game favors Andrade hugely - while Hill's takedown and submission defense is much improved, she still had to do a lot of work against Souza, and Andrade is a complete powerhouse compared to Souza. So it may come with some difficulty, but I see Andrade eventually taking things to the ground and dominating from there, enough so that I'll call for a second-round submission.
Curtis Blaydes (6-1 overall, 1-1 UFC) vs. Adam Milstead (8-1 overall, 1-0 UFC):
Yes, somehow, two heavyweight prospects that are each under thirty years old are squaring off. Adam Milstead's only a few months shy, but that still counts, and the Pittsburgh native is coming off a solid UFC debut in May, outboxing Chris De La Rocha en route to a referee stoppage. He'll face Illinois's Curtis Blaydes, who came into UFC with a decent amount of hype thanks to his size and strong wrestling background, but ran into Francis Ngannou in his UFC debut before rebounding in October with a win over Cody East. Both guys are promising - Blaydes in particular is just a beast of a man, one of those guys who actually needs to cut to make heavyweight, and even his fairly one-sided loss to Ngannou looks impressive, since he had some success getting Ngannou to the ground, if not keeping him there. Honestly, this may be a weird comparison, but I see this similarly to the Andrade/Hill fight on the complete opposite side of the size spectrum - while Milstead has a wrestling background, he's primarily been a boxer in his recent MMA fights, and should be able to have some success trading with Blaydes in the pocket. But I just don't see Milstead being able to handle Blaydes's physicality, and I figure Blaydes will be able to take things to the ground a solid percentage of the time and just maul Milstead from there. Both guys are still raw and improving, so the possibilities are a bit wide here, but I'll call for Blaydes to eventually ground-and-pound out Milstead sometime in the third round.
Chris Gruetzemacher (13-1 overall, 1-0 UFC, 1-0 Strikeforce) vs. Chas Skelly (16-2 overall, 5-2 UFC, 3-0 Bellator):
Sure. Chas Skelly has had a somewhat underrated UFC career thus far - he's a bit older than you'd think, since he'll probably be 32 by his next fight, but he's one of the better grinders out there, and opens things up enough that he scores the occasional submission. Despite being the betting favorite for some reason, he lost pretty handily to Darren Elkins this past March, establishing that Skelly isn't king of the featherweight grinders just yet, but he rebounded in extremely unexpected fashion in a crazy fight against Maximo Blanco, as both men decided to start the fight with running, flying kicks, Skelly's hit cleaner, and Skelly subsequently locked on a choke to win in just nineteen seconds. Crazy stuff. Skelly returns to his home state of Texas to face Arizona's Chris Gruetzemacher, who's a solid wrestle-boxer. Gruetzemacher had a decent run on the McGregor/Faber season of TUF in late 2015, won a fight over castmate Abner Lloveras to stay on the roster, and returns here after missing all of 2016. Gruetzemacher is fine at everything, but it's hard to see where he stands out - he could stick around if he just gets matched with the right lower-level guys coming off losses, but he really does seem like one of those fighters who can have a ton of success on the smaller circuits, but will struggle against UFC-level fighters. At any rate, unless Gruetzemacher has improved greatly in his year off, this seems like a pretty one-sided win for Skelly, so I'll call for him to just out-wrestle "Gritz" and earn a one-sided decision, with a chance of him getting a submission at some point.
Ricardo Ramos (9-1 overall) vs. Michinori Tanaka (11-2 overall, 2-2 UFC):
This is an interesting first UFC fight for Ricardo Ramos, who comes into UFC with a bunch of hype, and deservedly so. Ramos is just twenty-one years old, but he's put together an excellent resume thus far, racking up win after win thanks to an exciting submission game, reminiscent of Charles Oliveira, where he just chains together techniques until he finds one his opponent isn't able to stop. That said, Ramos has already flown a little too close to the sun, as Manny Vazquez was able to reverse things on him and tap him out for his lone career loss, but between his submission skills, his long frame, and some pretty decent striking already, the sky is pretty much the limit for Ramos. He debuts against Michinori Tanaka, who's one of the better Japanese prospects of the recent wave that came into UFC. Tanaka's a strong athlete, a solid submission artist, and has some solid, movement-based striking - the type of overall package that doesn't really stick out, but should be enough to keep Tanaka around in UFC for a bit while trading wins and losses. This could really go either way - Ramos obviously has a high ceiling, and it's just a matter of if it's too much, too soon at the moment. I'll roll with the top prospect and say Ramos racks up another first round submission, but if he's not able to do much against Tanaka, that's perfectly fine, since the long-term outlook is still so good.
Tecia Torres (7-1 overall, 3-1 UFC, 4-0 Invicta) vs. Bec Rawlings (7-5 overall, 2-2 UFC, 1-2 Invicta):
Part of me still thinks the UFC dropped the ball a bit when it comes to Tecia Torres, even if I understand why they don't really seem to be enthralled with pushing her as a top contender. When Torres came onto the scene in Invicta back in 2012, she looked like a future star - "The Tiny Tornado" was a particularly apt nickname, as Torres would just mix in her wrestling with a vast array of spinning strikes; add in the fact that she was a cute Latina, and she really did look like someone UFC could build around whenever they introduced strawweights. But things never really clicked - Torres has always been held in high regard, but as she's gotten better as a fighter, she's also gotten much more conservative, relying on her wrestling and grinding clinchwork in a lot of fights, and replacing that exciting, but reckless, striking game with more steady kickboxing. Wins over Angela Hill and Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger were pretty unmemorable and didn't do her many favors, and a narrow loss to Rose Namajunas last April left Torres out of the title picture, and she's apparently had trouble getting a fight booked since. But she returns here after about ten months to fight Bec Rawlings, in a rematch of a Torres win on season 20 of TUF. Rawlings came into Invicta with a splash based off a solid record in her native Australia and a strong social media presence, but it soon became apparent that she wasn't really up to snuff as a title contender for the promotion. But she's eventually settled into a solid mid-card niche, as she's a decent, fun striker with just enough grappling to get by. Still, this is pretty much a keep-busy rebound win for Torres, as she's probably the better striker and should always have her wrestling to fall back on. Rawlings being big for the division while Torres is so small could be a concern, but Torres is always so undersized, and it hasn't really hampered her yet, so the call is Torres by fairly one-sided decision.
Alex Morono (13-3 overall, 2-0 UFC) vs. Niko Price (9-0 overall, 1-0 UFC):
This should be a pretty fun welterweight fight, as both guys have put on solid performances in their UFC careers thus far, and we're still figuring out exactly what both have to offer. Alex Morono probably didn't deserve the upset division win over Kyle Noke in his UFC debut, but he at least made good the second time around with a one-sided win over James Moontasri. Morono seems to be a solid striker and that's about it, though when he starts smelling blood, like he did in the Moontasri fight, his gameplan does tend to shift towards "start winging punches." Morono, a Houston native, is fighting on a pretty quick seven-week turnaround, though his opponent, Florida's Niko Price, is fighting on just five weeks notice himself. Price made his UFC debut on the Nunes/Rousey card, tapping out Brandon Thatch, and looked like a pretty solid, aggressive athlete - with the caveat that at this point, exploiting Thatch's ground game doesn't really seem to be clearing a high bar. Anyway, this is basically a coin flip fight, and I'll favor Price by decision, if only because Morono's wrestling game seems pretty untested itself, and Price has at least shown that much. But this could be a fun one, since both guys seem to fight quite aggressively.
Daniel Jolly (5-1 overall, 0-1 UFC) vs. Khalil Rountree (4-2 overall, 0-2 UFC):
Okay, so I assume this has to be the last chance for Khalil Rountree, at least in the UFC. When the cast for TUF 23 was announced, the two big favorites were Rountree and Phil Hawes, two middleweights (although the season was at 205) who were considered among the best prospects in MMA at any weight class. And while Rountree has done better than Hawes (who didn't even make it into the house, and was last seen getting tapped out in WSOF), the Las Vegas native has still been a huge disappointment. Rountree did make it to the final of the season, but Andrew Sanchez wound up making him look awful once he got there, taking Rountree down at will; things went badly enough that you could hear Rountree's mother in the crowd, telling her son to get up. After that, Rountree was matched against debuting Australian Tyson Pedro, and it was more or less the same story - Rountree rocked Pedro with his trademark striking power, but Pedro just shot for a takedown and it was pretty much all over from there, as Pedro eventually worked his way to a first-round submission. Rountree's a powerhouse of a fighter, and as TUF showed, when he's on, it's awesome, since he hits like a truck, but the lack of takedown defense and complete lack of improvement is making him look like a bust thus far in his UFC career. So, hopefully third time's the charm against "The Werewolf of Texas" Daniel Jolly, who's primarily a wrestler and a ground-and-pound artist. That made for a horrible matchup in his UFC debut against Misha Cirkunov back in August of 2015, as Cirkunov's own strength is his high level judo game, so Jolly just had no answers for the Latvian prospect. And, well, frankly, given how disadvantageous that style matchup was, he couldn't ask for a more advantageous rebound here. I'm going to go with my heart a bit and pick Rountree to finally get on track and score a first-round knockout, but I'm probably wrong in doing so, since Jolly can wrestle, and once he gets that first takedown, this might be a wrap.
