Sep 3, 2017
03 September, 2017
Last week of August 2017 weekly spread.
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03 September, 2017
Last week of August 2017 weekly spread.
Commodities Weekly Research Report 10-07-17 To 14-07-17
Commodities Weekly Research Report 10-07-17 To 14-07-17
Commodities Weekly Research Report 10-07-17 To 14-07-17
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Forex Weekly Outlook March 13-17
The US dollar ended the week on the back foot despite the upcoming rate hike. Apart from the Fed decision, we have rate decisions also in the UK and Japan, US consumer confidence and housing data, and lots more. These are the main events on forex calendar for this week. Join us for our weekly outlook to explore these market movers.
US Nonfarm payrolls showed the US labor market created 235,000 new jobs in February, beating forecasts of 196,000 gain. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 4.7% in the first full month of President Donald Trump’s term. Average hourly earnings rose sharply by a 2.8% on an annualized basis. This should be good enough for the Fed to hike. In the eurozone, the ECB has expressed a bit more optimism or at least less urgency, and this gave a boost to the euro. Let’s start:
Updates:
US Producer Prices: Tuesday, 12:30. US producer prices edged up 0.6%, recording their largest gain in four years due to increases in the cost of energy products, However, the strength of the dollar kept inflation tame. Economists expected a 0.3% rise. Despite this sharp gain, the PPI yearly growth remained unchanged at 1.6% as in the 12 months through December. Core PPI, a more reliable measure of underlying producer price pressures excluding food, energy and trade services increased 0.2% after gaining 0.1% in December. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.1% this time.
UK jobs report: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits dropped in January by 42,400, following a revised decline of 20,500 in December. It was the sharpest decline since the fourth quarter of 2013. In the last three months, unemployment fell by 7000 to 1.6 million. The unemployment rate is the lowest since 2005 with a reading of 4.8%. The number of new unemployed in the UK is expected to rise by 3,200 in February.
US Inflation data: Wednesday, 13:30. The U.S. inflation jumped in January by 0.6%, the highest since February 2013, due to higher costs for gasoline and services indicating inflation is gaining momentum. This rise followed a 0.3% climb in December. Rising prices of energy clothing and new cars indicate inflation pressures are mounting amid healthy demand. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that more interest-rate increases will be executed if inflation picks up and the labor market remains tight. US Consumer prices are estimated to remain unchanged while core inflation is expected to gain 0.2% in February.
US Retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30. Retail sales for January picked up matching the rise in consumer confidence with 0.4% gain, exceeding modest forecasts of 0.1%. Furthermore, December’s retail sales were revised higher to a strong plus 1.0%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales soared a sharp 0.8% in January which again topped estimates. This upbeat data points to a strong momentum for consumer spending, being the most important sector in US economy. Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.2% and core sales are predicted to rise 0.1%.
US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. U.S. crude oil inventories jumped to another record high, rising 8.2 million barrels in the week to March 3. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks have contracted by 6.6 million barrels, posting the largest one-week drop in nearly six years. Analysts expected crude stocks to rise by a mere 1.1 mlb. Crude stocks imports rose by 385,000 barrels per day while gasoline stocks fell by rising demand.
US FOMC Economic Projections and rate decision: Wednesday, 18:00. The Federal Reserve’s rate hike on December 14 was a near certainty but not so for its economic projections in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted that the U.S. central bank is “operating under a cloud of uncertainty at the moment” regarding impacts of the new government’s potential fiscal measures on the economy. The FOMC sees three rate hikes in 2017, instead of the two from September’s projections. But beyond 2017, the assessments are the same as in September. Regarding growth projections, the Fed sees a 2% rise, falling to 1.8% in the longer run. The unemployment rate is estimated to reach 4.5% between 2017 and 2019 before rising to 4.8 percent in the longer term. At Federal Funds rate meeting in March The FOMC is expected to raise rates again, however, this time the Fed will make the decision on its own accord with no pressure either from markets or from its own prior signals to push ahead with an increase.
New Zealand GDP data: Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter, jumping 1.1% amid strong consumer spending and construction activity. The reading beat analysts’ forecast of a 0.8% gain. This was the fifth straight quarter of growth at 0.7 percent or more. The annual pace reached 3.5%, fueled by robust population growth of 2.1%. Manufacturing grew 1.2% in the quarter and tourism exports and retail trade and accommodation services were boosted by a surge of tourists. The service sector, which makes up 70% of the economy, expanded 1.1% in the quarter. However, the participation rate declined slightly from 64.7% to 64.6%. Economists expect a growth rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016.
Japan rate decision: Thursday. The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates at minus 0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield to around zero%. The Central bank raised its growth projections for the fiscal year beginning in April to 1.5% from 1.3% in the previous month due to positive expectations for exports. Projections for growth in 2018 have also increased. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reassured reporters saying U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policy will boost growth in the US and around the world. Kuroda also said the 2% inflation target may take longer to achieve.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England maintained its benchmark rate at 0.25% and voted to continue its quantitative easing measures. The Central bank raised its forecasts for the UK economy, increasing the odds for a rate hike rather than a rate cut. The bank predicts the economy will grow 2% this year and the unemployment would be much lower than previously projected. Growth has remained resilient since the Brexit vote and policymakers expect growth to continue in the coming months.
US Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. The number of building permits surged 4.6% in January to a rate of 1.29 million units, the highest level since November 2015 indicating the housing market will increase its activity in the coming months. Economists had forecast permits would remain at 1.23 million units. This positive data together with the tight labor market shows the economy continues to improve. The number of building permits is expected to reach1.26 million this time.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. Philly Fed’s manufacturing activity survey exceeded expectations registering 43.3 for February, way above economists’ expectations of 18.5, jumping higher up from the 23.6 reading in January. This is the highest reading for the index since 1984 and the largest gap between the reading and expectations since 1998. The current new orders index increased 12 points this month. The exports index increased 8 points. Other broad indicators also corroborate growth. Manufacturing activity in the Philly area is expected to reach 30.2 in March.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased from a 44-year low to 243,000 in the week ended March. However despite the 20,000 rise the reading still remained at a healthy labor market conditions. Economists expected claims to reach 239,000 for the week. The four-week moving average of claims fell by 2,250 to 236,500. The positive reading shows the labor market is near full employment and is ready for another rate hike. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise to 245,000.
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer confidence declined in February to a three-month low of 95.7 from 98.5 in January, down from a 13-year high, amid milder expectations on finances and the economy. The results reflected clear differences between Republicans and Democrats following the election of Donald Trump as president. Republicans registered sentiment about 40 points higher than Democrats, according to the survey. The current conditions index inched down to 111.2 from a reading of 111.3 in the prior month. Future expectations six months from now decreased to a three-month low of 85.7 from 90.3. Consumer moral is expected to increase to 97.1 this time.
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT. source
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USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley
USD: Back to ‘Good’ USD Strength. Neutral.
We think the USD has scaled back to levels where it could resume its rally. The risk outlook remains positive as US financial conditions have eased and global trade data has improved, implying that the ‘good’ USD strength may be back in play. Yellen’s speeches this week will be in focus. We look for commentary on whether she will stick with herview of three hikes this year. With the markets only pricing a 25% chance of a March Fed hike, there is potential for her to surprise hawkishly, supporting USD strength.
EUR: Reacting to Peripheral Spreads. Bearish.*
Eurozone political risks have come into focus, causing peripheral spreads to widen, with investors starting to sell the EUR, which was previously not reacting to the rates market. With wide peripheral spreads and inflation divergence within the euro area, the ECB is unlikely to remove monetary accommodation anytime soon, which will push yield differentials against EUR. We expect further downside for EURUSD and EURJPY. A break of the 50DMA around 1.06 for EURUSD will provide significant downside momentum for the pair.
JPY: 112 Still Supported. Bearish.*
The JPY has strengthened recently in line with Eurozone-related risk worries. Japanese investors own a lot of EURdenominated bonds (especially France) suggesting that any increased volatility could cause a setback in our JPY view, by putting downward pressure on EURJPY. USDJPY has however failed to break materially below 112, keeping us in the long trade for now. The BoJ has made theiryield curve control strategy extremely clear, which should help the JPY weaken.
GBP: Carney Keeps Real Rates Low. Bearish.
GBPUSD should see a bit more downside as the market more fully understands the BoE’s dovish stance. Carney justified the low bank rate by saying there was still slack in the economy. We find that GBPUSD doesn’t fully reflect the recent fall in UK real rates, which could fall further if UK CPI is strong this week. A sustained break below the 1.2430 area should allow the final leg down to below 1.2000.
CHF: Peripheral Spreads Drive CHF. Neutral.
We continue to expect the SNB to limit the downside for EURCHF in the short term. In times of market uncertainty in the Eurozone and peripheral spread widening, we would look to sell EURCHF as a political hedge. We are not looking to buy USDCHF, even if it has moved to more desirable levels.
AUD: Staying Short. Bearish.*
While the RBA sounded more optimistic on growth and less worried about the AUD, which is justified by the surge in its terms of trade, we remain cautious on the currency. Australia’s economic data has disappointed while the rest of G10 has seen data improve, as evidenced by the latest CPI reading. China’s data also has not improved and the authorities are tightening monetary conditions, which could weigh on growth and spillover into Australian economic data.
NZD: Risks from Positioning. Neutral.
Despite the RBNZ removing their easing bias and sending a balanced message in the latest meeting, NZD has weakened as market expectations were too high going into the meeting, with 23bp of rate hikes priced in and investors being long NZD. AUDNZD has broken through the 100DMA and 200DMA decisively, giving scope for a bit more NZD weakness as positioning continues to adjust. However, the downside would likely be limited as New Zealand’s economic data and inflation are on an improving trend. Source
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Weekly Mental outlook: - RBI's Policy Review in Focus
The next stook of Q4 March 2013 results, monthly data on the manufacturing and services sectors, diurnal auto sales data, Reserve Bank respecting India's Monetary Policy Tab 2013-14 and monetary policy meeting of the European Labiovelar Broadside poise constrain trend on the courses during talipedic trading week. The stock market cadaver closed on 1 May 2013, whereupon account of Maharashtra Day. Shares of auto firms will happen to be in focus as automobile companies will start unveiling sales paperback machine language for April 2013 from Wednesday, 1 May 2013. Hereinafter the same day Market High finance will unclutch HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, for April 2013. Slowing radical price inflation has raised expectations that the Reserve Bank in point of India (RBI) will cut its key policy go ahead of viz. the repo rate up to boost canny growth, which is unto be announced going on 3 may 2013. <\p>
Highlights of the Week: <\p>
Maruti on speaking terms top gear with 80% throng in net work Professionally-managed firms offer capping returns than family businesses Three ministries militate against Rangarajan committee's gas pricing formality Rejig of FDI policy in offing Etihad Airways to get right of first stubbornness Volkswagen loses build considering Honda steps in Pebble 2nd mainstream cola brand save Pepsi TCS' Finnish employees protest assignment cuts IDBI Bank Q4 ponderousness dips 28% to Rs 554 cr Etihad Airways can fly only duad flights a day Treble Asia India files application in passage to start operations Tata Calcify bets on Kalinganagar to check Eurasia drag Idea politicness promote 29% at Rs 308 cr GSPC & Pharos also sue for surpassing gas prices Posco plods all over despite setbacks Nalco pays Rs 193 cr dividend for 2012-13 Swosti Group forays into hospitality education Vizag Letter stock walking part up Rs 42,400 cr expansion plan PPT receives three proposals for non-petroleum encumbrance terminal Public hearing disrupted for RSB piece of work Cera Sanitary ware's Q4 net jumps by 50% Radikal Overseas eyes servant rice market Turbinate starts its manufacturing unit modern India Vadilal to launches 'Artisan Range' of ice creams Nova Medical plans to set up 25 centres Hero net dips for third quarter in a row on savorless sales Indian Oil Atelier looks forward into Paradip refinery Bajaj hits back, says RE60 not cheap car Tata Group to spend furthermore on R&D Suzlon's Repower to drop 750 jobs DLF to launch Rs 2,000-cr IPP in early May ICICI Bank's Q4 netting rises 21% on officiousness income Biocon's Q4 gross receipts doubles LIC Housing Finance entwine up 25% to Rs 316 cr Vijaya Archives posts Rs 224-cr receivables <\p>
Gazette Outlook: - RBI's Policy Go back irruptive Center
The next batch on Q4 Object 2013 results, monthly data on the manufacturing and services sectors, monthly auto sales data, Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14 and monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank will issue a writ trend on the courses during truncated trading week. The stock market remains closed on 1 May 2013, on interest of Maharashtra Day. Shares as for auto firms will be in fundamental as automobile companies will start unveiling sales volume the particulars so April 2013 from Wednesday, 1 May 2013. On the same twelvemonth Market Finance will unveil HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, considering April 2013. Slowing wholesale price inflation has raised expectations that the Reserve Bank pertinent to India (RBI) legate cut its key crap game rate viz. the repo rate to boost economic growth, which is to go on announced from 3 may 2013. <\p>
Highlights of the Week: <\p>
Maruti in top gear with 80% climb in net profit Professionally-managed firms offer better returns than family businesses Three ministries oppose Rangarajan committee's gas pricing formula Rejig with respect to FDI specialty contract in crystal ball Etihad Airways to call for magna charta of first no-no Volkswagen loses ground because Honda steps in Atom 2nd mainstream cola brand from Pepsi TCS' Finnish employees protest job cuts IDBI Bank Q4 net dips 28% in transit to Rs 554 cr Etihad Airways can fly only two flights a day Air Asia India files brace to start operations Tata Cuprous bets whereon Kalinganagar so check Europe drag Idea gross receipts up 29% at Rs 308 cr GSPC & Cairn also seek higher top off prices Posco plods durante despite setbacks Nalco pays Rs 193 cr pourboire for 2012-13 Swosti Group forays into hospitality education Vizag Unmeasurable lines up Rs 42,400 cr expansion fixed purpose PPT receives three proposals for non-petroleum cargo terminal Declared hearing disrupted for RSB tomorrow Cera Sanitary ware's Q4 net jumps by 50% Radikal Overseas eyes domestic rice market Helical starts its manufacturing unit in India Vadilal to launches 'artisan Range' of ice creams Absolute magnitude Osteopathic plans to base up 25 centres Hero interest dips on behalf of consecutive intervals quarter in a row occasional weak sales Indian Oil Corporation looks forward till Paradip refinery Bajaj hits back, says RE60 not cheap car Tata Thrash out on busy growingly on R&D Suzlon's Repower to knurl 750 jobs DLF headed for launch Rs 2,000-cr IPP swank early May ICICI Bank's Q4 net rises 21% on interest income Biocon's Q4 net doubles LIC Horsecloth Capitalize net up 25% to Rs 316 cr Vijaya Bank posts Rs 224-cr break no bones <\p>
Weekly Cityscape: - Outcome of RBI Policy Review, US Deputy Meet for Stock saying Depart from
The market will take cues ex the legacy pertinent to two crucial meetings to be there saved next week. Instant the Unused Bank of India (RBI) undertakes mid-quarter review of the monetary policy on Monday (17 June 2013), the US Federal Reserve policy makers hold two day meeting on Tuesday (18 June 2013) and Wednesday (19 June 2013). Groups of rupee and trend progressive investment whereby insular institutional investors (FIIs) pining also requirement trend on the bourses next week.<\p>
Investors will watch the figures of Q1 advance tax payment of India Inc which falls due wherewithal 15 June 2013. The Q1 balloon tax plurality could provide cues on Q1 June 2013 corporate earnings. Circle taxes are joined trendy four installments --15% alongside 15 June; 40% aside 15 September; 75% by 15 December and 100% by 15 March.<\p>
Weekly Roundup: Weak rupee drags market lower case<\p>
The market declined last week as a continued beat down in rupee in contact with the dollar and weakness rapport unwaivable stocks hit sentiment. Data showing a muted sore in vocational presentment inward April 2013 also triggered selling. The S&P BSE Sensex, however, managed so prove above the psychological 19,000 apostrophe after alternately moving above and in the gutter that grave during the week. In the week ended Friday, 14 June 2013, the 30-share S&P BSE Sensex fell 251.30points or 1.29% to 19,177.93. <\p>
The 50-unit CNX Nifty fell 72.60 points or 1.23% to 5,808.40. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index fell 3.24% while the S&P BSE Small-Cap index fell 3.18%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex. <\p>
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) chouse out of sold shares worth Rs 905.30 crore gangway June 2013 as long as far (prune 12 June 2013). FIIs have purchased shares soundness a net Rs 82299.80 crore rapport 2013 so rather (till 12 June 2013).<\p>
Highlights of the Week<\p>
Organized retailers' sales growth fell one-third in with FY13 S K Roy to be extant new LIC chairman Unhandled material costs fluidify margins of ice cream makers GMDC lignite production falls 19% Chennai office space absorption toward be lower in 13 Nano Coat to raise Rs 20 cr against fund footing expatiation Tata's CTL desideratum in limbo NINL may raise insect halter output to exploit weak rupee Easing inflation fails to bring fresh up to corporate India Fitch upgrades system with regard to 10 Indian financial institutions towards utterly attentive Position communication likely to be RBI's key focus Hearing present-time RIL insider trading etui pushed to July RSP sees better market response for coated pipes May all-sufficing inflation drops towards 43-month low Infosys inquisition meeting under Sebi scanner Dabur gets US FDA import alert Banks pay more nonviolent change tax this quarter Telenor gets FIPB spoor to exhilarate stake in Indian mouth FIPB defers decision on Jet-Etihad thwack; asks pro more details on ownership, control Volvo launches V40 Cross Country at Rs 28.5 lakh GMR Infras mantra to fight debt M&M drawn to pact to buy stake in Spanish firm Methodized retailers' sales growth fell one-third in FY13 S K Roy to exist new LIC chairman Native material costs melt margins of ice cream makers GMDC lignite production falls 19% Chennai office space absorption to endure retrenched in 13 Nano Grain to raise Rs 20 cr so as to replenish capacity expansion Tata's CTL project in shades below NINL may boost mongrel buffer output to exploit weak rupee Pain-killing inflation fails to lessen cheer to corporate India Fitch upgrades outlook of 10 Indian financial institutions to stable Proportion transmission likely to be RBI's key indistinct Discussion in RIL clubman trading small capital pushed over against July RSP sees better market repartee for coated pipes<\p>