#zambiacopper

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the lobito corridor series: zambia's copper processing ambition

the raw material trap: the history of zambia's copper economy is a history of exporting raw material — ore, concentrate, and cathode — rather than copper products. the downstream value chain is produced elsewhere. zambia exports the metal; other countries manufacture with it.

the value addition argument: for every tonne of copper leaving zambia as cathode rather than copper wire, zambia foregoes the manufacturing value added, the employment, and the tax revenue. multiplied across 500,000 to 1,000,000 tonnes targeted per year, the foregone value addition is significant.

the corridor's role: by providing a lower-cost export route to the atlantic and european market, the corridor creates conditions in which copper manufacturing operations near the mines become more viable.

the chambishi MFEZ: already hosts the CNMC chambishi copper smelter — the beginning of a processing value chain. the ambition is to develop the MFEZ framework into manufacturing bases for copper products that can move along the corridor to lobito and the european market.

the energy constraint: smelting, refining, wire drawing, and copper product manufacturing require reliable, affordable electricity at industrial scale. zambia's electricity supply insufficiency is the most binding constraint on the copper processing ambition. the batoka gorge hydropower project and the solar expansion programme are the prerequisite.

the corridor makes the route. the energy makes the processing. the processing makes the value addition. all three are necessary. none alone is sufficient.

the lobito corridor series continues. 🇿🇲🚆

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the zambian investment series: copper deeper

where zambia stands today: in 2025, zambia produced 890,345 metric tonnes of copper — an 8% increase from 2024, the second consecutive year of growth. the increase was led by konkola copper mines — a 366% surge to 80,215 metric tonnes following its IRH recapitalisation — and mopani, up 40%. the mimbula mine commenced production in 2025, delivering 8,183 metric tonnes in its first year.

the 3 million tonne ambition: the government target — 3 million metric tonnes by 2031 — would more than triple current production, place zambia among the world's top three copper producers, and fundamentally alter zambia's fiscal position and role in the global copper supply chain.

the investment pipeline — approximately $10 billion in committed investments: first quantum's $1.25 billion kansanshi S3 expansion. barrick gold's $2 billion lumwana super pit — expected completion 2028, ahead of schedule as of august 2025. the $600 million sinomine kitumba project in mumbwa — open-pit mining commenced april 2025, production from 2026. kobold metals' mingomba mine — identified through AI-powered geological analysis — in active development with ivanhoe's western forelands exploration programme covering 7,757 km².

the exploration boom: 2,375 mining licences issued in 2025 (9.2% increase). CHRAGS aerial geophysical survey reached 51.7% national coverage by end of 2025, with full coverage expected july 2026.

the challenges that are real: reaching 3 million tonnes from 890,000 in six years requires capital of $17.6-33 billion. electricity of approximately 6,000-9,000 GWh per year. ore grades declined from historical 2% to current 0.5% copper content. the lobito corridor's zambian section must be operational in time to carry the new production.

the demand case: the IEA estimates global copper demand of approximately 30 million tonnes annually by 2040 for net-zero. EVs contain ~83kg of copper compared to ~23kg in a conventional vehicle — a 260% increase. zambia's 3 million tonne ambition is a supply response to structural demand growth the clean energy transition makes inevitable.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: copper and critical minerals

the demand story: UNCTAD projected in may 2025 that global copper demand will rise by more than 40% between now and 2040. an EV contains approximately four times as much copper as a conventional vehicle. AI data centres are now a structural driver of copper demand alongside EVs and renewable energy. none of these sectors has a credible near-term pathway to copper substitution.

the supply constraint: new large-scale copper deposits are increasingly difficult to discover, permit, and develop. lead time from discovery to production: typically 15 to 20 years. the copper the world needs in 2035 needs to start being developed now. this underpins the price environment that has seen copper rise from roughly $7,200/tonne in mid-2023 to over $9,000/tonne in early 2026.

zambia's position: the copperbelt contains some of the world's highest-grade, most geologically accessible copper deposits. estimated reserves of over 2.1 billion metric tonnes of copper ore. approximately 890,000 tonnes produced in 2025 — an 8% increase year-on-year, trajectory toward 3 million tonnes by 2031.

the new mines: sinomine's kitumba mine, mimosa's kashime mine, and kobold metals' mingomba mine — all expected online by 2026. kobold metals — backed by bill gates, jeff bezos, and michael bloomberg — chose zambia for its flagship african copper project.

the nickel and graphite opportunity: nickel production climbed from 2,500 tonnes in 2019 to 8,000 tonnes in 2023. global nickel demand expected to jump 70% by 2040. graphite prospects in petauke, lundazi, and kapiri mposhi — a material critical for EV battery anodes, included in the december 2022 zambia-DRC-US trilateral EV battery value chain agreement.

the value addition gap: zambia currently refines only 1.3% of copper products locally. talks ongoing with global carmakers about EV component manufacturing near the mines.

for investors who have followed zambia's mining sector through its cycles: the current cycle is different. the demand is structural. the supply constraint is real. and zambia's geology is as good as it has ever been.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: why i believe in zambia

i've spent twenty-three years supplying industrial valves, instrumentation, and process equipment to the mining sector in zambia. i've worked with mopani and konkola. i've navigated the tax environment, the regulatory constraints, the currency fluctuations, and the periodic political uncertainty that comes with operating in any developing economy.

and after twenty-three years of navigating all of that, i believe in zambia as an investment destination. not because the challenges aren't real. they are. but because the underlying endowment — the resources, the geography, the people, the untapped potential across sector after sector — is extraordinary in ways that the world hasn't fully understood.

42 million hectares of agricultural land, less than 15% under cultivation. world's seventh largest copper producer — about to become more important, not less, as the global transition to EVs and renewable energy drives copper demand beyond what existing supply chains can meet. the copperbelt's geology is world-class. kobold metals, sinomine, IRH — the quality of the companies making real commitments to zambia's copper sector tells you something.

zambia sits at the crossroads of four african regions in a geography that makes it one of the most logistically strategic countries on the continent. the lobito corridor turns that geography from a constraint into an advantage.

none of this means investment in zambia is without risk. it isn't. the regulatory environment retains complexity. power infrastructure is the single biggest constraint on mining expansion and agricultural processing. the skills gap in certain technical specialisations is real.

but i have watched, over twenty-three years, as businesses that understood zambia's underlying potential — that were patient enough to navigate the constraints and positioned to benefit when the cycle turned — have produced extraordinary returns. the companies that invested in the copperbelt at the bottom of the last copper cycle are doing very well in this one.

zambia is not an easy investment destination. no emerging market with real upside ever is. but for investors who understand what they're looking at, the case is genuinely compelling.

the zambian investment series begins. 🇿🇲💰