I've seen a lot of posts in the last 24 hours about why Kamala lost and I feel like most of them are failing to actually look at reasons voters are giving. Instead, they're putting forward what they personally didn't like about Kamala's campaign. But here's the thing to remember... You didn't like that thing about Kamala's campaign. You still voted for her. There's something else going on.
Because people didn't just vote against Kamala. They voted FOR Trump, and early polling results are showing they did it across the board in almost every demographic.
I've seen the calls for investigations into voter fraud and voter suppression because "this doesn't just happen!" and I agree with one thing. This doesn't "just" happen. There's a reason and democrats aren't listening. Because it's not just a handful of counties that got hacked or had crazy people trying to stop votes or didn't get all of their ballots counted. That's not to say that none of that stuff happened, of course. There may have been serious issues in some counties. But across the board, in nearly every state and every county, even if he didn't outright win, Trump made gains. The only two states where he didn't make gains: Washington State and Utah.
If that's due to voter fraud or hacked elections, it would have to be on a scale unlike anything we have ever seen before and honestly, we don't have any evidence of that right now.
So what happened? What do we know?
We know that since the pandemic and since the record inflation that caused, incumbent leaders all over the world have been losing elections at higher rates than usual. That crosses all political persuasions and again, has been seen across the globe.
Based on polling prior to the election, which remained fairly consistent throughout the election run, 3/4 US voters think the country is on the wrong track and 2/3 are unhappy with the economy.
Biden's approval rating when this election started was 40-41%
This is all a recipe for an incumbent losing, which to be frank, most people still saw Kamala as, even though she was running instead of Biden.
In addition to all of that, let's look at what the exit polls showed.
Kamala's approval rating in the exit polls was 48.5%
Donald Trump's approval ratings in the exit polls was 44.54%
And I know he wasn't running, but just for context Biden's approval ratings were 40%
When asked if Harris's views were too extreme, 46% said yes, 51% said no.
When asked if Trump's views were too extreme, 55% said yes, 43% said no.
So how did he win?
People like him less and think he's more extreme. Why did they vote for him?
Well, let's look at some other polling data.
45% of voters said that their family's personal financial situation was worse off than it was four years ago.
Only 25% said their financial situation was better than it was 4 years ago.
75% of people polled said that in the last year, inflation has caused them either severe or moderate hardship.
When asked who can bring needed change, 73% of voters said Trump and only 25% said Harris.
What that means is that a majority of American's don't like Trump. They don't think he's a good person. They think he's too extreme. And yet they still voted for him because the issue that was most important in this election was the economy.
Will Trump be better for the economy?
No.
But there's a perception that the current administration did not do everything they could have to fix it and people were willing to roll the dice on someone different.
Maybe we could have done more. Kamala only had 110 days to make her case and no matter what she said, the fact remained that she is the sitting VP. Maybe there was no way for her to escape the incumbent/status quo perception.
I hope we can learn something from the behavior of the American electorate this year, and I really hope Trump doesn't fuck things up too bad before we get another chance to step in, because the Republican Party is learning things too. They're learning that they can be as extreme as they want, but if they can make people believe the economy will work better under their leadership, even if it's not true, they'll still get votes.
















