About Biases in organized Crime by investigation journalist - Mark Mitchell
Unfortunately, the issues that I deal with (i.e. drugs and mafia) are not exactly normal, so maybe my experiences will not be good examples, or at any rate, they will not be interesting and pertinent to most people. Nonetheless, I will tell you about one topic of discussion with which I am familiar, and which is difficult to discuss without parties to the discussion demonstrating bias, both negative and positive. That topic is organized crime. It seems to be difficult for many people to believe that organized crime is involved in the financial markets, or that organized crime even exists anywhere other than in the movies. Their bias is to believe that all people are honest and good. This is especially the case when it comes to the financial markets, as most people believe that financial operators are sophisticated, highly educated people, and that such people are (by definition) not criminals. I could see this as being a dangerous bias for some people who are making decisions about whether to go into business with certain financial operators without considering the possibility that those financial operators are criminals, or even organized criminals.
I know of many business people who have allowed others to invest in their companies, only to learn later that their investors were, in fact, organized criminals who planned not to help the companies grow, but rather intended to destroy the companies for profit. Similarly, people often make decisions to invest in the stock of publicly listed companies believing that those companies are run by honest people who want the companies to grow and the stock price to increase, when actually the owners of the companies are organized criminals who just want to "pump and dump" the stock (meaning they initially increase the stock price, but they ultimately drive the stock price to zero before investors have a chance to know what is happening and recoup some of their losses). For the investors, this is definite "success" bias, believing that their investments will increase in value, while the odds are usually against them (especially if they are handing their money to people who intend to steal it).
Conversely, people (like me) who investigate crime for a living tend to be biased towards believing that everything is rigged by criminals, hesitating to make any investment or to trust anyone for fear of being robbed. This is an over-cautious bias. If I were ever to become an entrepreneur, I would be biased towards believing that my company would have no chance against the sophisticated criminals or cartels, though the truth is probably that the company would have at least some chance. As a journalist, I harbor a bias towards believing people are guilty, and it takes some effort to be fair and assume that all people are innocent until proven guilty.
More broadly, there seems to be stark divide between "conspiracy theorists" who are biased to think everything is a conspiracy, and "skeptics" who are so biased as to be convinced that there is no such thing as a conspiracy--that conspiracies simply do not occur. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but human beings, as a rule, do not think in terms of the middle. They gravitate towards either-or, as is also evident in politics (everyone on the left or on the right, but nowhere near the truth, which is somewhere in the middle). Even knowing their bias, it is difficult for people to correct the bias and adopt more even-minded points of view.
It would be great to have an Iphone ap that told us what to think!
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