The curious case of anti-NaMo
In my prediction in the previous post, NDA was at 288, UPA, 108 and others 138. Of the others, only YSRCP, TRS and BJD have shown neutrality so far, while the rest seem to do anything to sweep aside the Modi wave. NOw, a closer look at the numbers means UPA + Others have come agonizingly close to the magic number of 272. In fact, they are about 27 seats shy of forming the government (The chances are minimal, but mutual understanding and perseverant talks could lead into something more dramatic).
Its those 27 seats that BJP need to wrest out of the Opposition, two of the states where they have concentrated the most in the campaigning. And that, to me, was a masterstroke. A double digit tally in Odisha and 15-16 tally in West Bengal (I might be dreaming) could very well seal two-thirds of the job. What remains is the Mahaghatbandhan. If you look at 2014, BSP and SP combined did just cross the BJP in the vote share percentage , at about 41. So from superficial level, it seems BJP may not lose more than 15 to 20 of their 71 seats from 2014, and that means an astounding victory overall. But there are other factors including how the upper caste in the HIndi heartland feel about the Namo governement. The were the ones who hot hit most by DeMo and Yogi has not really been in the good books of many. Now, how much of that to how many of those would be another important key for Phir ek Baar Modi Sarkar.
The three key states: UP, Bengal, Odisha. The three key neutral parties: BJD, TRS, YSRCP.
Even if the NDA gets past 272, Modi-Shah would do their more than best to woo these 3 parties for a smooth 5 years.