Could Microsoft Release Project Scorpio Hardware at E3?
So 22 years ago I was a freelance writer covering the videogames industry. I played everything back then, but my preferences leaned towards Sega as I loved their hardware focus (I had a SegaCD, a Nomad and a 32X!) and their exclusive games always appealed to me more than Nintendo's (although I was already enamored with Ridge Racer on my gray market PlayStation Japanese import).
The 1995 E3 trade show was held in Los Angeles that year, where I happened to live. Thanks to Tom Kalinske's stunning announcement at the press conference I attended, I was able to buy a Sega Saturn (and Virtua Fighter!) by stopping in at the Toys R Us near my house on the way home. I couldn't believe it!
Of course, that early release of the Saturn is a well documented disaster (read: Console Wars by Blake Harris) and was pretty much the end of the Sega I loved. However, it got me thinking after reading all the release coverage on Microsoft's upcoming Project Scorpio console:
Wouldn't it be awesome if Microsoft released the Project Scorpio console hardware at this year's E3?!
Now before you write that off as insane, hear me out. Microsoft announced the Xbox One S and Project Scorpio at the same time at last year's E3 show. While the S was a nice revision bump for the current console, those of us who already owned an Xbox One console (I was already on my second one, having upgraded my Day One box to the beautiful limited edition Forza console) and understood the promise of Project Scorpio were immediately put in a hold pattern. Why buy the S in September when a year later true 4K gaming was going to arrive?
So instead gamers like me have been biding their time waiting for Scorpio. It's painful since many of us have popped for a 4K UHD HDR TV - which my current Xbox One works great with, but I can't play UHD Blu-rays yet (but at least my Kinect still works without an adapter). I applaud Microsoft for actually announcing their Scorpio plans when they did, as I probably would have bought an S if they hadn't - new hardware is very hard to resist.
So it's been almost a year since the initial Scorpio announcement and in the meantime we have the release of the PlayStation 4 Pro. This is the first generation where I haven't owned "all" the systems. I used to buy every new console on launch day; originally because I wrote about games and hardware, and then later because I had a young son who shared my passions. But after stints with AOL and VideoGame Advisor/GameWeek I turned my attentions full-time to my IT career, my son grew up, and then gaming became purely recreational for me. When the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 were announced, I looked at the past 8 years, realized I almost never played my PS3 and lived on my Xbox 360, and decided all I needed was an Xbox One (racing games are my passion, and for me Forza is the only exclusive that matters).
Anyway, the hardware junkie in me was tempted by the PS4 Pro, but I had just upgraded my PC to a GTX 1070 and an ASUS ROG 27" 2K monitor, so I decided that would hold me over until the Scorpio arrived with true 4K gaming (and mercifully, based on Digital Foundry's articles, that faith in Scorpio looks well founded!).
So - why the idea of releasing the Scorpio console hardware at E3? First off, the Scorpio hardware is 100% backward compatible with the current Xbox One consoles. So on launch day one, without doing anything else, the Project Scorpio console has a library of literally hundreds of games, maybe a thousand. Games that now immediately get a bump in framerate and possibly resolution, depending on how they were coded.
Now Microsoft is seeding hardware in the hands of its hardcore Xbox evangelists. They’re showing it off to their friends - cool new hardware and look how good the games are? For those Xbox One first-gen owners who skipped the S, they now get those "S" features like HDR in Forza Horizon and Gears of War, and the ability to play 4K UHD HDR Blu-ray discs (I've already started buying them instead of regular BD discs now even though I can't play them yet, because I know I'm getting a Scorpio). Even though there are only a few HDR games for Xbox One, at least there would be some titles that would immediately take advantage of the Scorpio hardware beyond improved frame rates.
Depending on the price, I think there is a huge pent up demand for a true 4K console like the Scorpio - an early hardware release could let Microsoft ramp up production towards the big holiday push while delivering those early adopter consoles, which would mean more true hardware availability in 2017 and potentially a much larger sell-through for the year. Any game developers who are on the fence would see that, and it could give them the push to have more 4K asset "upgrades" available for download in December/January, which in turn would drive more hardware demand and provide a nice bump in sales for those older, upgraded titles as there would be a new reason to own/play them.
And none of this would diminish "Holiday 2017" - it would still be the big blockbuster mainstream rollout as that's when the new AAA titles are released and the Scorpio ad campaigns would feature the console and the "upgraded" versions of those games. Plus that's when Microsoft would release the bundles (Scorpio + Forza 7, Scorpio + Crackdown 3, or maybe Star Wars Battlefront II).
Beyond all of that, just imagine how it would play at E3 in June. It would simply be epic.
Is there any chance of this happening? My realistic guess is no. For starters, I don't think there's any way Microsoft and retailers could keep something like this a secret; they'd have to be shipping well in advance of the date to have stock in hand and unlike 1995, the Internet and blogs are far more pervasive now.
So the only way to do it would be a Microsoft Online Store exclusive (at least for the first couple of weeks). That would probably upset retailers (many were furious with Sega for giving a few chains the early exclusive on Saturn, a necessity due to limited hardware availability and trying to keep it a secret). Digital game sales are already straining relationships with retailers, but maybe because of that it doesn't really matter much anymore.
And we really don't know yet how Microsoft defines "Holiday 2017" - The S launched in September of 2016, and the last several iterations of the Forza games have also been released in September. If Microsoft keeps to that sort of schedule (and as a dedicated Forza player I sure hope they do!), then it's possible that we could see pre-orders announced at E3 with availability in September - that's only another three months.
Another wrinkle could be that perhaps not all the Xbox One game backward compatibility testing/tweaking is complete yet. It would suck if Scorpio was release but there was a list of games that were problematic; it needs to play the existing catalog at least as good as the original Xbox One on Day One.
Microsoft is probably building the production versions of the new consoles right now, but since they all have to go through the "Hovis Method" it may take time to build up an adequate supply of consoles. They may not want to announce availability and then have 2 month shipping backorders (like Google with the Pixel phones).
Given all of that, September is probably the earliest realistic availability date. But given the unprecedented release of detailed hardware information ahead of the release, and that this holiday is "all about the games", it just feels like something truly unexpected could happen during the June 11th event. We'll find out in less than two months!