If the NBA season ended today, who would win the MVP award?
Just over 20 games remain for each team in the NBA season. The year’s been filled with surprise after surprise- whether it be the multitude of injuries to key stars, the ascension of previously unsung heroes (here’s to you, Jimmy Butler), and of course, the rise of the Atlanta Hawks from middle of the pack playoff team to legitimate contender. But of course, everyone wants to know what to make of the MVP race. There are plenty of worthy candidates for the award, so who will take home the hardware come May? There’s no short answer, so I’ve decided to file a case for each of my top-5 MVP candidates in order and then pick my own MVP.
5. Anthony Davis. Davis is having an unbelievable season by all standards. Averaging 24.2 points per game, 2.78 blocks per game (which leads the league), and 10.3 rebounds per game, the 23-year-old is finally giving us a glimpse of his potential. Yes, only a glimpse; this kid is a freak. Thanks to his improved mid-range game and added bulk, he is averaging nearly 11 more points than he did in his 2012-13 rookie season, becoming a more complete player in the process. But the statistical argument for Davis centers on his PER (Player Efficiency Rating for the casual fans who may not know), which is a gaudy 31.66. If that were to stand, it would be the fifth-best of all time. Davis has improved immensely since his rookie season. He has always been a freakish athlete, but now he has added the necessary strength and basketball IQ in order to be successful in this league. Davis is now a basketball player and he’ll surely be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. For now though, Davis is not quite ready to hoist the Podoloff Trophy at the end of the season. Unfortunately, I heap the majority of the blame on Monty Williams and the lack of a healthy supporting cast in New Orleans. The award is the Most Valuable Player and not the Best Player. When Davis has been injured (he’s missed 12 games), the Pelicans have been just as pedestrian as when he is on the court. Though 12 games is a small sample size, the Most Valuable Player is the player who contributes most to his team’s success. Since the Pelicans are a borderline playoff team in the loaded Western Conference, regardless of whether or not Davis is on the court, they probably won’t make any noise in the playoffs anyway.
4. LeBron James- “Off year. He’s deferring to Kyrie. He’s struggling to adjust.” LeBron’s heard it all this year, justified or not. Just because he is (let’s face it), not quite the superhuman that he was in Miami does not mean that he is not an MVP candidate. James is having his LOWEST scoring output since his rookie season at 26.3 points per game… That’s absolutely absurd! It seems as though everyone is having a LeBron James hangover; he has been in the MVP conversation for the past eight years and everyone is tired of it. Fewer people recognize LeBron’s greatness because it is oft taken for granted. Despite the fact that LeBron is posting his lowest PER since 2006-07, his impact often defies statistics. Whereas most marquee players in the NBA need systems that cater to them, LeBron fits any system or any team’s style for that matter because he can play all five positions effectively. LeBron has essentially nullified the term “position” altogether because he is a modern day Scottie Pippen-Magic Johnson combination, a very rare breed indeed. He is a point forward that can play in the post, shoot the three, and attack the basket with reckless abandon. LeBron’s style is its own; he is unorthodox, but a tried and true winner who boasts a career winning percentage of .760. Not unlike the 2010-11 Miami Heat, the Cavs struggled out of the gate this season, but appears that just as LeBron is playing his best basketball of the season, so too is his team. Coincidence? No chance. This guy is the motor that makes the Cavs run and without him, I’d be hard-pressed to say the Cavs could contend, even in the lowly East. They have no legitimate rim protector, Kevin Love is solely used as a catch and shoot player, which is a travesty in of itself, and yet still, Cleveland is finally hitting its stride.
3. Stephen Curry. As the best pure shooter in the NBA who is lightning fast and remarkably unselfish, Curry has established himself as a mainstay in the MVP conversation. Worth noting: Curry is an improved defender and he has flourished offensively under Steve Kerr, leading the Warriors to within a half a game of the league’s best record as of March 5. He ranks in the top six in the league in points (fifth) and assists (sixth), while leading the league in steals. What has helped Curry most though in my opinion has been the vastly improved play of his teammates. Now that Klay Thompson is so much more than just a shooter and Draymond Green has come into his own as the most versatile player in the NBA, Curry looks noticeably more comfortable on the court. As opposed to Mark Jackson’s offensive system which was utterly chaotic and in terms of structure was just a step above a pickup game, Curry has benefited from Kerr’s offense which is much more reliant on the pass. Under Jackson, the Warriors ranked 30th in the league in passes per game and now with Kerr at the helm, they rank eighth in that category. Curry is not only getting considerably more open looks from distance, which to him are layups, but also distributing at a high rate as well thanks in no small part to Golden State’s small-ball offense that has allowed the team to spread the floor so effectively. Though Curry’s assists and points totals have slightly decreased, the numbers might be skewed a bit for a number of reasons: 1) the Warriors are outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game allowing Curry to play a whole 3.3 less minutes per game than he did last year at a mere total of just 33.2 per game, 2) Curry is taking less shots, yet making them at a more efficient rate, for an improved True Shooting Percentage which accounts for three pointers, total field goals, and free throws. Curry is playing the best basketball of his career now that he has a coach that uses him correctly. His mere 33.2 minutes per game are eerily reminiscent of the same philosophy that Gregg Popovich employs with his own star players in San Antonio… What’s that you say? Another product of the Spurs organization that has altered a franchise elsewhere? Yes, Steve Kerr finished his accomplished playing career with two stints in San Antonio (three years and one year, respectively) and all the while, played for Popovich, surely learning some of the tricks of the trade along the way. Now that Curry is fresh and much more trusting of his teammates and system, he has logged his most efficient season by far, an impressive 27.8 PER (up 3.7 from his previous career high set last season), and he has the Warriors on pace to make a deep run into the playoffs.
2. Russell Westbrook. It’s impossible to ignore the show that Westbrook has put on in the past few months. He has played like a man among boys; out of his mind and with reckless abandon. And you know what? I love it. What can’t this guy do? I’ll admit, I had my doubts about Westbrook a few years ago— he isn’t exactly the smartest player it never quite seemed as if he had the feel for the game that most stars do today, but he’s certainly impressed me in recent weeks as he’s played some of the best basketball ever in the modern era of the sport. In the absence of Kevin Durant especially, Westbrook has gone berserk and in so doing, shown myself as well as the rest of the basketball world that he is ready to take on the responsibility that comes with being the number 1 option. More than anything, I have been startled by Westbrook’s sudden leap in maturity. As Durant has not even played in half of Oklahoma City’s games, it’s been Westbrook who has been asked to carry the load instead of playing second fiddle which he had grown so accustomed to doing. And he’s done quite well, to say the least as he’s totaled six triple-doubles thus far this season (the next closest player is Michael Carter-Williams who has just 3) including four consecutively from February 24 to March 4. The last player to total four straight triple doubles? None other than His Airness, Michael Jordan. The numbers support Westbrook’s rise too: he’s averaging career highs in each major statistical category save for blocks (27.0 PPG, 8.2 APG, 7.0 RPG, and a PER of 29.8). Westbrook has single-handedly willed the Thunder to wins when he’s played, as Scott Brooks’ simple-minded offense has kept the ball in his hands time and again, much to the chagrin of the since traded Reggie Jackson who felt he was a capable starter, but that’s beside the point. Now that Westbrook has finally been given a chance to dominate the ball, he’s demonstrated what he’s capable of doing. Oddly enough, Kevin Durant’s injury-plagued season has helped Westbrook in the MVP race and could actually help the Thunder if they make the playoffs now that the young point guard is coming into his own. The UCLA product hasn’t been in past MVP discussions because he hasn’t felt the need to be. Now that he has been given his opportunity, he certainly hasn’t missed the boat. Unfortunately, he has missed an uncharacteristic 16 games. As Trent Dilfer always says, “Sometimes your best ability is your availability.” By no means is Westbrook at fault here, but had he been healthy the whole season, we would probably be talking about the Thunder as a 5 or 6 seed instead of a bubble playoff team. What fascinates me most about Westbrook is the reckless abandon with which he plays, but in some instances, this reckless abandon can prove to be his weakness. As far as he has progressed in terms of his maturity, the hot-headed point guard still shows flashes of his past, playing at times, out of control and far too fast. In a fourth quarter setting, would you want to rely on a point guard who is known for forcing the action instead of letting the game come to him? I didn’t think so.
1. James Harden. Yes, the beard. I struggled taking Harden over Westbrook here, but my main thought process was this: Harden has a much more complete body of work than does Westbrook. While Westbrook is on a historic run, Harden has been far more instrumental in his team’s success than his Westbrook. He has played in all but one of Houston’s games this year, all the while posting 26.9 PPG and 7.0 APG. Like Westbrook, Harden has been helped immensely by the absence of Dwight Howard who has played in just 32 of the Rockets’ 61 games. However, in the case of Harden, his team has been winning consistently without Dwight Howard, good enough for a 41-20 record. No wing player in the NBA dominates the ball quite like Harden does as he leads the league in points per game on drives (7.9) as well as team points per game on his drives (14.5). He is the best shot creator in the league, for himself and his teammates alike, capitalizing on the “Mathketball” strategy employed by Houston GM Darryl Morey. He has relied heavily on three pointers and drives, nearly eliminating the mid-range jumper from his game altogether. Harden plays the numbers, and he does it well. This guy is a genius; he knows how to manipulate the game to his liking. He leads the league in free throws attempted and made, much to the chagrin of his opponents, many of whom still view him as a flopper. In terms of his ability to capitalize on offensive possessions, Harden is second to none. While he might be exploiting the system, he’s within the rules and he’s simply doing whatever he can to win. Harden dominates the ball more than any player in the league; this season, he has been possibly the best 1 on 1 player since Kobe Bryant just a few short years ago, and when teams try to negate his scoring ability, he is a very capable and willing passer. In that way, he’s a more athletic Manu Ginobli- very high basketball IQ, very crafty, and a keen eye for detail. Even for the naysayers who believe that Harden’s defense is a liability, he’s improved in that area as well. While he’s not exactly a Bruce Bowen-esque defender, he’s been passable on that side of the floor, rated the 6th best perimeter defender in the league according to Player Tracking by SportVU. Here’s my main argument for Harden as the MVP though: if he were to be taken away from the Rockets, how would they fare? Would they even be a playoff team? It’s hard for me to even picture them in the playoffs out West without Harden running the controls. What he’s done in Houston this season has been nothing short of amazing and if the season were to end today, I firmly believe that James Harden should win the MVP.