the Battle for the Senate

I find polls fascinating, and when I couldn't find an aggregate online for the odds of a Senate takeover, I made one myself.

[demsen2016-blog]

New addition: the State Projection Graph!

[demsen2016-blog]

DEMSEN Update as of 9/8

[demsen2016-blog]

New addition! State-by-state odds, accessible whenever you want ‘em.

[our-political-revolution]

WHAT THIS MEANS:

34 Senate seats are up for election this year.

All 435 House of Representative seats are up for election this year.

A total of 469 seats in the US Congress is up for election in November 8, 2016.

In order to TAKE BACK the chamber, Democrats need to gain 5 seats.

In order to FLIP the chamber, the Democrats need to gain 30 seats. 

Democrats only have 10 seats to defend while Republicans have 24.

Confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice requires 60 votes in the Senate. 

Should Democrats fail to retake the Senate in 2016, it is unlikely that they will get another opportunity until at least 2020.

It’s incredibly important that we place attention not only to the presidential candidates, but to the Senators and Representatives that are up for election this year. 

For more info about who’s running, please check this website: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2016

[demsen2016-blog]

The overall DEMSEN odds are based off of the 8 races most likely to be won by the Democrats, but here are all 14! Used to be 15, but Colorado had 4 polls with Sen. Bennet leading his opponent Darryl Glenn by more than 12.5%, at which point I decided to remove the race from the overall odds because it’s a Democratic incumbency. 

[demsen2016-blog]

I mainly work on Twitter but will do my best to keep this site updated. The original link updates automatically

[demsen2016-blog]

the Battle for the Senate

Hi y’all!

I have created a projection, the Democracy Enabled Matrix of Senators’ Elections: National (DEMSEN), that aggregates and gives odds for taking back the Senate and each Senate race in particular (based off of demographic info and public polling). It updates daily, check it out! 

[demsen2016-blog]

the Democracy Enabled Matrix of Senators' Elections: National analyzes the most recent polls to calculate the likelihood the Senate is taken over by the Democrats in 2016.