Fixing the Falcons: If I Did Do It, How I'd Do It (Part 2 of 5)
The New Coach
Been busy with life lately; tons of things happening lately that require a lot of attention, so I apologize this is coming out a little later than I had hoped. This post will also not be as long as Part 1, nor will there be as much research.
Arthur Blank is currently tasked with finding the next Falcons head coach. If I’m Arthur, my end goal is to bring the Falcons back to being division champions and hosting playoff games. There has to be a model of consistency for this to happen, so to understand where old coach Mike Smith faulted, let’s take a look back:
When I hired Smith one of the first big moves he and Dimitroff made was signing Michael Turner. Turner was great for our Organiztion as he turned into one of the best running backs in the NFL. That season, Smith turned around a 4-12 season into a 11-5 season and a playoff appearance. What was it about this year that made it such a success?
One quick look at the team numbers tells the story. We’ll start offensively: We were a rush first team. We had power (Turner) and speed (Jerious Norwood). Over the haul of the season Turner amassed 1699 rushing yards and averaged 4.5 yards per attempt. Norwood had just south of 500 rushing yards and averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. You don’t have to be a mathematician to understand that Atlanta was able to churn out first downs with relative ease. Two running backs averaging at least 4.5 yards per attempt rarely left us needing a third down conversion. While Turner and Norwood were both fantastic options for our running game, let’s not overlook the offensive line. From left tackle to right tackle the starters went: Todd Weiner, Justin Blalock, Todd McClure, Harvey Dahl, and Tyson Clabo. Wow… They really were an underappreciated bunch. All were dominant run blockers and held up fairly well in pass protection. Maybe most importantly, they all worked extremely well together. They only allowed 17 sacks that whole season. 17. By comparison, Matt Ryan was sacked 31 times in 2014. Granted, we did not throw as much in 2008 as we did in 2014 but that was due to an insane running game. So, in 2008 the Falcons had a dominant running game, now Atlanta has a dominant pass game, so what’s the difference? In 2008, Atlanta scored 391 points and averaged 2 minutes and 52 seconds per drive. In 2014 we scored 381 points and averaged 2 minutes and 42 seconds per drive. So, in 2008 the offense as a whole was better at scoring points and dominating time of possession. In 2014 we scored 10 fewer points and our average drive lasted 10 seconds less. Not significant, right? Wrong. Don’t focus too much on total points, instead look at the time of possession. 10 seconds per drive may not seem like much, but extrapolated over the course of an entire game, those ten seconds accumulate. So, in 2008 we could score more points and keep the other team from getting the ball at the same time. Huge. That’s the winning recipe. How about the defense?
Defensively: Atlanta allowed 325 points over the course of the season in 2008. In 2014, we allowed 417 points. Let that sink in for a minute. The 2014 defense yielded 92 more points than the 2008 defense. Good gracious. In 2008 opponent drives averaged 2 minutes and 39 seconds of game clock, whereas in 2014 opponent drives averaged 2 minutes and 54 seconds. That’s insane! We had the ball for less time in 2014 and the defense had to be on the field more, leading to a 92 point increase in points allowed by the defense. What’s more telling is the sack numbers. In 2008 we amassed 33 total sacks – just over two per game. Not significant, right? Wrong. The simplest way to loosely describe what a sack does is that it ends a drive. It is so hard for an offense to recover the yardage lost on a sack on first and second down, and third down sacks nearly always result in punts. Sacks end drives for the offense. The 2 sacks per game in 2008 attributed to the lower time of possession for Falcons’ opponents. By comparison, the 2014 Falcons had only 22 sacks over the entire season, which is directly correlated to the increased time of possession to Falcons’ opponents. Mike Smith said on numerous occasions that sacks are overvalued. I can’t really believe that because the numbers don’t lie; teams that are capable of generating pressure and ultimately sacks on the quarterback are better than teams that cannot.
So where did Smith go wrong? What happened between 2008 and 2014? While there are a number of possible explanations, I can only point to one and say “That was the decision that sealed Smith’s fate.” After the 2010 season, we held the number one overall seed and hosted Green Bay, who blew us out on national TV. After that game, Dimitroff and Smith got together and decided the team needed to become more explosive. Less attention was paid to offensive linemen and the defense as a whole. Smith got away from what made him successful: Running the ball, and stopping the run. Sure, there was some short term success; the Julio trade allowed us to acquire one of the top 5 receivers in the league and he’s been worth it. But, an explosive offense has turned its head on Smith. Now, we continuously get bullied around in the trenches, can’t generate pressure, and can’t get off the field on third down.
What conclusions can be drawn from 2008 and 2014, then? Looking at both seasons and the statistics, the theme seems to be a dominant line of scrimmage in 2008 and weak line of scrimmage in 2014. Smith came to Atlanta and committed to winning at the line of scrimmage. It’s such a simple mindset, but it works. When I look at a team like Seattle and Carolina and what they offer on their defensive line, or a team like New England and their offensive line the formula seems simple: Win at the line of scrimmage, and you will win the football game. It starts with the right mindset: committing to excellence at the line. Next, there must be a plan in place: free agency and the draft. And finally, the players need to be told “Win at the line of scrimmage, and we win the football game” every day from OTA’s to mini camp, to training camp, and throughout the season.
Who do I hire? It’s looking more and more likely that Dan Quin is our guy, but we’re not closing the door on Teryl Austin either. Regardless of who I pick to coach Atlanta next year, they MUST convince me they are devoted to winning at the line of scrimmage.