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peace through understanding

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A sharp break in Western Balkans policy The State Department report to Congress on "United States Policy to Promote Regional Stability and Prosperity in the Western Balkans" merits analysis and comment....

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The best available alternative is the EU Accession of Montenegro and Albania would help the EU stake its claim to leadership of the liberal democratic world. That's the best alternative to the US....

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Montenegro in the final lap

Here is the original English version of the remarks I prepared for the Montenegrin Political Science Association. I participated in their second annual conference last Tuesday and Wednesday in Budva. Pobjeda published these remarks in Montenegrin today: It is a great pleasure to be back in Montenegro. I’m afraid I have no record of my first visit here, but I think it was in the late 1990s. I do…

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Trump is making America weak again

Donald Trump likes to play the heavy. Whenever he sees someone as weak, he bullies mercilessly. But he is manifestly making America weak again, as he did in his first term. That featured remarkable assaults on American democracy and the rule of law. In his second term, he established his top domestic priority in his first budget. He is trying to rid America of immigrants. That includes those…

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Trump is losing two wars, one is in Iran

Q: "To what extent are American's financial situation motivating you to make a deal [with Iran]?"Trump: "Not even a little bit…I don't think about Americans' financial situation, I don't think about anybody." pic.twitter.com/M91RuqXstL— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) May 12, 2026 This clip reveals two things about Trump. He has downgraded his goals for the Iran war. And he really doesn’t care…

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International mistakes in Bosnia and Kosovo

The international community makes mistakes. Today has brought to my attention two of them: The Bosnia High Representative, Christian Schmidt, is in the news because he is (thankfully) quitting. The Kosovo Specialist Chambers (KSC) trying former Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and other leaders of the Kosovo Liberation has gotten some comeuppance in a British report. The HiRep Schmidt has done…

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Tolls at the strait of Hormuz?

The Trump Administration is busy leaking its proposals for opening the strait of Hormuz and trashing Tehran for collecting tolls. Iran is busy creating a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to collect the tolls. The legalities I am not a lawyer. But even I know the legal issues are more complicated than US Ambassador to the UN Waltz suggests. The 1982 Law of the Sea Convention confirmed the right of…

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Stuck in a long war with nowhere to hide

President Trump’s efforts to get Iran to yield have yielded nothing. Tehran isn’t even willing to talk. The problem seems to be the agenda. Trump wants to talk about Iran surrendering its highly enriched uranium and agreeing not to enrich more, presumably in exchange for sanctions relief. The Islamic Republic wants to talk about opening the strait of Hormuz to more ships and ending the US…

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De-escalation is the way to go

The good news is that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding. So is the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Israel and Lebanon less so, but that is not the main American concern. The bad news is that the US is now stuck in a Middle East conflict it has already lost. The strait of Hormuz is in Tehran’s control. So long as that persists, Washington is the biggest loser. The mutual…

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Getting rid of what works, and what doesn't

This is how the Gulf traffic looks when the strait is open: As anticipated, the strait of Hormuz is not, as President Trump claimed, open. Instead, the United States and Iran have now constructed a dual, though not symmetrical, embargo. The US says it will seize ships that are going to Iran or coming from Iran wherever it finds them. Iran is allowing transit of the strait of Hormuz only by…

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Intersections, not convergence

I spoke yesterday at a University of Maryland workshop on science and diplomacy. Here is what I prepared for the purpose. Due to time constraints, I said less: Science and Diplomacy For me, convergence is not the right word. Intersection, which happens sporadically, is more like it. Broadly I think of two different intersections between science and diplomacy. The first is how technology…

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Statehood and language

I am working these days on a new edition of my 2019 book entitled From War to Peace in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Ukraine. One of the major themes will be contested statehood and the antidotes. So this message from Ali Ahmeti, leader of the major Albanian opposition party in Macedonia, struck a chord: DEMOCRATIC UNION FOR INTEGRATION February 3, 2026 Open Letter Stable states are built…

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Iran lost militarily but won strategically

President Trump says Iran has agreed to open the strait of Hormuz during the two-week ceasefire announced yesterday. It is shaky today, but that is not uncommon on the first day of a ceasefire. More important: details are lacking, and Trump is not a credible source on what was agreed. Here is the Iranian Foreign Minister’s statement: On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express…

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Trump is desperate, the Iranians are winning

Today President Trump is threatening to kill a whole civilization. That is prima facie evidence of his intent to commit genocide. That speaks for itself. The man is a self-declared war criminal. Yesterday, he spent an hour glorying the rescue of an American airman, which I also celebrate. I even understand Trump’s glee. As Charge’ d’affaires at US Embassy Rome in 1993, I visited a search and…

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Iran holds the Trump cards

President Trump spent Easter bragging about the rescue of an American airman and vulgarly cursing Iran: Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP The vulgarity from a president was unusual,…

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Trump has disempowered America

Last night Donald Trump rehashed his arguments for war with Iran. It didn’t go well. His vague promise of an end to the war in a few weeks caused oil prices to rise and the stock market to fall. He claimed the strait of Hormuz would open naturally, because Iran will want to get its oil out. That is bogus. The strait isn’t closed to Iran’s oil. Tehran is already shipping at will. Trump also…

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The Iranians can get what they want

Yesterday’s Middle East Institute event (above) on prospects for negotiations to end the Iran war was a good one. I’ll add here some footnotes, focused mainly on how people who study international negotiations think about the current standoff. And I’ll take a stab at a possible outcome. There are basically two conditions for a successful negotiation to end a war: A mutually hurting stalemate…

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