God's Horses

Galloping endlessly on a figure 8 passage, blindfolded, maintaining balance with a bottle Rebel Yell in one hand, and a Swisher in the other.

[morbidology]

Nestled deep in wooded area surrounding New River Gorge National River lies The Nuttallburg Coal Mining Complex and Town Historic District, an abandoned mine and townsite. It was established in 1870 and left abandoned in the early 20th century; it can be reached today by hiking .

[godshorses]

Tonight’s The Night

Neil Young’s career spans six decades. His discography remains void of Zeppelin-like mystique. He has produced thirty-five (!!!) studio albums, with heaps more live performances and bootlegs available. His watered-down recent works and passion to vomit political opinions have taken some luster from his legendary arc.

At his peak, he was a tour de force. He glided through the musical spectrum, capable of punishing electric guitar, devastating lyrics, and haunting acoustic performances. ‘Tonight’s The Night’, released in 1975, almost two years after its initial recording, is unparalleled in emotional rawness.

The free-loving, grass-smoking 60′s gave way to a darker, more violent, soul-stealing 70′s. Syringes replaced joints. The relative dangers of smack were unknown at the time. It didn’t take Shakey long to realize that shit was evil.

Neil gave Crazy Horse guitarist Danny Whitten plenty of chances to turn it around. He invited him to stay at Broken Arrow (his ranch outside of Santa Cruz) for long stretches at a time, in hopes that Danny would kick his dope habit. However, during a weekend of rehearsals, Danny just wasn’t cutting it. He would nod off for seconds at a time, completely flubbing simple guitar licks.

Neil gave him $50 for a plane ticket to LA and sent him home…

That night, Danny Whitten was found dead in his bathtub. Neil would carry that burden with him for years. He felt responsible.

Young has stated “everybody gets one person in the world they connect with musically. My person was Danny Whitten.”

His guitar technician, Bruce Berry, overdosed a few months later.

Neil would take these two deaths into the studio with him, creating his most harrowing record to date.

It’s not something to play at breakfast… It’s better-suited for the tail end of a two-day bender.

The album was born at SIR Records in LA. It was recorded in a unique manner. At a time when overdubs were becoming industry standard, Neil went the opposite direction. Every song, every take was played live. All at once. Neil’s voice fades in and out. Sometimes he was on top of the microphone. Other times he was four feet away. Arrangements were far from perfect (check out ‘Borrowed Tune’). This record wasn’t about missed notes. The scars were beautiful. Necessary. 

Neil Young’s biography, ‘Shakey’, sums up these sessions in a straightforward manner. The band members would sleep during the day. Come to the studio at sundown with a case of tequila, hamburgers, and a few healthy-sized bags of cocaine. That was the intake.

Around three or four in the morning, they would retreat to their instruments and unleash all of the demons they had in them. Neil’s father, author Scott Young, has described the album as “a man on a binge at a wake.”

Ten days later, the core tracks for ‘Tonight’s The Night’ had been cut. Neil and famed producer David Briggs agreed the critics and fans would not understand the album at the time. They shelved it for two years.

In 1975, just after the release of ‘On The Beach’, Neil let this monster out of the closet.

The record opens and closes with Neil & Co. thrashing away on the title track. In between, lies some of Neil’s greatest forms of art. There is even a posthumous version of ‘Come On Baby (Let’s Go Downtown)’ sung by Danny Whitten.

There is rumored to be another version of the album locked up in Neil’s mythical vault. Complete with all the outtakes and banter between numbers. For now, this album offers a stark glimpse of a man’s music plummeting to the depths at warp speed. 

[godshorses]

Week 6 Matchups and Picks

Broncos -4 @ Browns

Just two years ago, if you had told me that Peyton Manning was heading into a game with the best defense in the league, against a Cleveland team with a bad defense and with an offense led by Josh McCown, Travis Benjamin, and a 30 year old journeyman tight end; I would have told you the line was Peyton -14. How the mighty have fallen. I know I said this last week, but this really might be Peyton’s last chance to get it together with this new offense. I just don’t think Cleveland will be able to run the ball, and unless you forgot, Josh McCown can fool you into thinking he’s a good quarterback, but not against this defense.

Broncos -4

Bengals -3.5 @ Bills

The Red Rocket has lifted off and is traversing the atmosphere like a fire crotch from hell. I’m taking the Bengals here, but I’m doing it under the assumption that EJ Manuel plays for the injured Tyrod Taylor. Does this have all the makings of a bad Andy Dalton game? Absolutely. But until I see it, I’m not taking EJ Manuel over a 5-0 team that is littered with weapons. 

Bengals -3.5

Chicago +3 @ Lions

Jay Cutler is dope, so haters be not welcome here. If you haven’t noticed, Chicago has been playing non-league-worst defense the past few weeks, led by future Chicago favorite Pernell McPhee. Do I feel confident in this game? No. Detroit has played about as tough a schedule as you can imagine the last 3 weeks: vs Denver, @ Seattle, vs Arizona. Chicago has been in the same boat, but goddamnit Jay Cutler is on fire and hopefully he gets a few weapons back this week. Besides I can’t keep taking favorites. Also, unless the Lions take a lead early off a defensive TD, expect Calvin Johnson to finally have a good game. He’ll get open for one or two deep balls that should hit his over 80.5 rec yards. 

Chicago +3

Texans -1 @ Jags

Well this is the worst game.

Jags -1

Redskins +6 @ Jets

Really love the Jets here, and I would bet that the line moves to 6.5 or even 7 by Sunday (it did). The Jets have remained relatively injury free, and get back Sheldon Richardson, possibly their best, and certainly their most despicable human player. The Redskins on the other hand are without most of their defensive backs, 2/5 of their offensive line, possibly Desean Jackson, and unfortunately still have Kirk Cousins. Okay he’s been decent, but even when he’s decent, he’s still terrible. Remember when RG3 was a thing? Yikes. It bothers me that the Redskins have covered consistently, but everything they try to do, the Jets do better. The Jets should be able to stuff the run consistently, leaving Todd Bowles sending blitzes at Captain Kirk on 3rd and long. Do you trust Kirk on 3rd and long? I think this is a blow out, I really do. The only thing holding it back is Fitzpatrick, but he has enough weapons around him that I think he manages them to a cover. And I know it’s low, but under 40.5 seems pretty safe, even accounting for 1 Kirk Cousins pick-six. 

Jets -6

Cardinals -3 @ Steelers

I loved Pittsburgh getting 4 points Monday night, but I’ll be damned if Michael Vick didn’t have me second guessing myself. The man is a terrible quarterback, and normally I would expect the Steelers to just give Leveon a ton of carries, but the Cardinals will run up points on you, and fast. If they get down by 10 or so points, the Steelers aren’t making it back. Cardinals have the secondary to cover their weapons, so it’s all about keeping Leveon in check. Now, I will say this - the Steelers are quietly playing decent defense, and once they get Big Ben back they are going to have a top 3 offense to go with it. I would say bet them 25-1 to win the SB, but wait until after they lose this game. And as much as it pains me to say this, I like Antonio Brown under 79.5 receiving yards. It’s his last week of being caged. 

Cardinals -3

Chiefs +4 @ Vikings

I loved the Vikings giving 4 points when I initially saw it, which usually means that you go the other way. I expect Minnesota to win this game, but I could see it being close. Alex Smith rarely will be blown out against a team with a mediocre offense. It will be interesting to see how much Jamaal Charles masked the flaws of this Kansas City offensive line. I don’t think they’re very good, but neither is Minnesota at stopping the run, so probably both teams will try to manage the game from the ground and with short completions. Actually, the more I look at it, I think the wheels start to come off here a little bit for this KC team. 

Vikings -4

Dolphins +2.5 @ Titans

I like the analogy of Dolphin’s players bringing some fire, much like if you have a new boss come in, you aren’t going to slack off or come in late that first week. And now imagine if your coach was a crazy 6′9″ psycho. I think we get Miami’s A-game on offense, finally. 

Dolphins +2.5 

Panthers +7 @ Seahawks

The Panthers have played about the easiest schedule in the history of all professional sports leagues thus far, and now they are going on the road to face a super pissed off Seahawks defense? I’ll give a few points for that. I’ve been trying to figure out exactly how the Panthers are going to move the ball. I think they devote attention to Olsen, and none of the other offensive guys can do much. Cam will be able to run a little, but that’s about it. Does Seattle have the offense to cover this many points? I think at home they will. 

Seahawks -7

Chargers +10.5 @ Packers

Under Philip Rivers 293.5 yards - book it. Packers have one of the best pass defenses in the league, so I would expect the Chargers to run the ball to keep it away from them and to keep their pass rush back (and the Packers run defense isn’t as good). On the other side, the Packers offense is going to manufacture some long drives too, keeping it out of Rivers’ hands. I actually don’t think the Chargers will be able to run it that well, and by then it will be too late because once they get down, Rivers will be bum rushed. 

Packers -10.5 

Patriots -7.5 @ Colts

Revenge game! So many points.

*Patriots -7.5 

Giants +3.5 @ Eagles

A lot of injuries to wait out, but if you don’t have the pass rush to get to Bradford, and you’re missing one of your corners, I think the Eagles will be able to move the ball on you. And on the other end, Philly’s defense has been quietly very good, so without Odell in the lineup, I think the Eagles put up a good game after being on the road for 5 of the past 6 weeks. 

Eagles -3.5

Player Props! 

[godshorses]

Week 4 Matchups and Picks

Jags +3 @ Bucs

When Bucs on offense: Jags run defense is solid, and should be able to neutralize TBs medicore run game. Jags not great against WRs but are very poor against TEs, but TB doesn’t have a TE to exploit that and the rest of their offense has been brutal under Jameis so far. Jags have played some good offenses, so I think they can limit what the Bucs can do.

When Jags on offense: TB’s pass defense is terrible, particularly against WRs. Their pass rush isn’t bad, but the only way Tampa’s secondary would only look is if they playied against Jameis. Trust me, they are all Chicago cast offs. I don’t see the Jags having too much success running the ball, but they have been decent in pass protection, so I think Hurns and Robinson could be in for pretty good days.

Summary: Hopefully it moves to +3.5, but I think the Jags could easily win this game outright, so I’ll take the points.

Jags +3

Bills -2.5 @ Titans

When Bills are on offense: Titans have a well ranked pass defense (and have been good getting pressure), but it was also against Jameis in his first start, John Football, and a one-armed Andrew Luck. Titans have been great against #1 WRs, poor against #2 (although with McCourty back, that will definitely help – Parrish Cox can take #2s), and abysmal against the TEs. Even if Sammy Watkins plays, Charles Clay looks like the real deal and I think he has another big game with 10+ targets. They are ranked 1st covering receiving RBs, but 32st against RBs on the ground. Buffalo’s offensive line isn’t very good, so it will be on Tyrod to make things happen, which he’s done pretty well so far.

When Titans are on offense: Bills defense has been good against the pass, but bad against the run. Most of it has been their touted defensive line, which has been league worst against the run, and also hasn’t been able to get to the quarterback (only 7 sacks). They’ve played Brady and Eli, two QBs who get the ball out very fast, but they’ve also played the terrible offensive lines of the Dolphins and Colts, so it’s no surprise they won those games. Tennessee has the 2nd worst pass blocking line in the league, and Mariota has taken sacks at a higher clip than anyone in the league, so if they don’t get rid of the ball fast, I would look for Rex Ryan to take advantage. Titans have played the Bucs, Browns, and Colts – not exactly 3 defenses that are lighting the world on fire. I think Mariota has a tough game at home and the Bills clean up their mistakes.

Summary: I could see a lot of punts in this game, so I’ll probably play the under 42 or play over 9-10 punts or whatever it ends up being. I’m not sure how well the Titans can move the ball, but if Mariota can it will be impressive. 

Bills -2.5

Browns +6.5 @ Ravens

When Browns are on offense: Baltimore is average against the pass, and solid against the run, and have played some pretty good offensive teams so far. They miss Ngata and Suggs and aren’t as great as they’ve always been up front against the rush, but LB play has been fantastic. Even without Suggs, they still get after the QB very well. Cleveland’s offensive line hasn’t been playing well, but that can partly be attributed to their bad weapons. Even so, their run game is just bad and their pass game is okay, but I don’t have much faith in them on the road in Baltimore. I wouldn’t be surprised if McCown got destroyed and we got John Football this game or next.

When Ravens are on offense: The Browns defensive line is poor against the run, mediocre getting to the quarterback. Baltimore has protected Flacco well, but they haven’t been great running the ball until last week. I think they got things back on track a little bit, and I expect Forsett to find success again. Their left tackle is back, and his fill in was the worst tackle in the league while he was out, so Forsett should have a good game. Cleveland is okay against WRs, but Baltimore doesn’t have any WRs. They are bad against TEs, but Baltimore doesn’t have a TE if Gilmore is hurt again. They are terrible against pass catching RBs, so I think Trestman finally gets Forsett some catches here.

Summary: This should a low scoring game, because who is making big plays? Ravens are going to focus on running the ball and they don’t have weapons without Steve Smith, and Browns don’t want to get into a shootout on the road with Baltimore. Look at the skill position players: Forsett, Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Crowell, Benjamin, etc. It’s bad. But is there going to be a defensive touchdown? Probably. Under 43.5. I think an improved and sustained run game from Baltimore will actually improve their defense as well. 

Ravens -6.5

Redskins +7 @ Falcons

When Redskins are on offense: Atlanta still has a lot of trouble getting to the QB, and their linebacking corps has been bad against the run. They cover #1 WRs well with Desmond Trufant, and have covered TEs well, but other than that it’s not good. They aren’t great with receiving RBs, so Chris Thompson could be a sneaky PPR play as Washington’s 3rd down back. Washington’s offensive line has been good on both sides of the ball, so I expect them to continue the ball control offense they’ve used. Not the best passing weapons to hang with Atlanta, so if they go down early the Redskins are going to have a hard time catching up – good live bet situation if they get down 10-14 points early, just bet the blowout. 

When Falcons are on offense: Washington has a good run defense, anchored by a good defensive line. Haven’t faced any good rush offenses. They’ve been decent getting to the quarterback, but again they’ve played the offensive lines of the Dolphins, Giants, Eagles, and Rams. Atlanta’s offensive line has been good in both facets, so Matt Ryan should have time to throw against a banged up Redskins secondary missing Deangelo Hall. Redskins cover the receiving RB well, and #1 WR well, but everything else poorly.

Redskins +7 (But if they get down early – I’d go the other way)

Bears +9 @ Chiefs

When Bears have the ball: KC’s run defense has been mediocre, but their pass defense has been bad. They have played solid offensive lines so they haven’t gotten the pressure necessary to cover their secondary. They are pretty bad against WRs, but Sean Smith coming back should help. They aren’t great against TEs, and they are the worst in the league against running backs, so Forte could have a big pass catching day. Look for a lot of quick throws from Jay to negate the pass rush. Chicago’s run blocking has been decent, but their pass blocking has been mediocre (and they just lost their center). They’ve played a tough schedule so far (toughest in the league) but if they get healthy and protect Cutler their offense has weapons. That’s a big if in this game – so look for a steady dose of Forte early, in both rushing and receiving game. Wouldn’t expect a big game from Alshon, but Eddie Royal could abuse backup safety Ron Parker.

When Chiefs have the ball: Chicago’s defensive line has been bad against the run, and pretty bad rushing the QB, but they’ve faced 2nd hardest offenses so far. Chicago’s secondary is not good, getting torched by opposing WRs and not defending TEs much better. They play receiving running backs well. KC’s offensive line has been good in the run game, but terrible in pass protection. And so, their run game has been good and their passing game has not been, but they’ve also faced the toughest defenses so far. Alex Smith seems like the QB who picks apart a bad or poorly coached defense. Hard to gauge the matchup of a bad offenses that has played tough defenses, and a bad defense that has played tough offenses.

Summary: I think the Bears will scheme to give Cutler protection to make plays, but this is also contingent on Alshon playing. 

Bears +9

Saints +4.5 @ Eagles

When Saints are on offense: Eagles defensive line has been solid against the run, but not great at getting to the QB. Their defense as a whole has been great against the run, and better than you think against the pass. They got abused by Julio, but the offense has left their defense hanging out to dry. Maxwell has been bad, but the Saints aren’t stacked at WR. If he can’t keep Willie Snead in check, it might be time for him to give some of that signing bonus back. NO’s offensive line has been good, but this is still advantage Eagles. Their pass protection has been okay, so that's a bit of a wash.

When Eagles are on offense: Saints are average on their defensive line in both facets. Their secondary has been abysmal, but maybe getting Lewis and Byrd back helps. Even so, they are last in the league defending the pass. The run defense is good, and Philly's run offense has been horrible, so both teams should look to throw. NO is basically terrible defending every position against the pass. I'd look for this to be a big Ertz/Matthews/ and Sproles game going back to NO.

Summary: Saints really didn’t look all that great against the Cowboys last week. Shit, I guess the Eagles looked pretty bad too, but the Eagles defense is the best of the group, so I’ll stupidly continue to bet Philly. Actually screw that.

Saints -4.5

Rams +9 @ Packers

When Rams are on offense: Packers run defense has gotten much better after their Week 1 showing against the Bears. Their defensive line is playing good run defense and they are 4th at getting pressure on the QB. If they shut down Gurley, Foles could be in for a tough day playing from behind. PFF guy actually just tweeted their rush D is ranked poorly because of opponent QBs running - not an issue here. Packers pass D is great against #2WR, TE, and RB, and horrible against #1s, so they should be okay against this Rams team. St Louis' o-line get stuffed in the run game, but holds up decent in pass protection. Their rushing attack is bad, but Gurley should help that a little bit.

When Packers are on offense: They shit on everyone. They've played poorly ranked defenses, but no doubt they contribute to those poor rankings. Their offensive line has been good, but not the top 5 unit without Bulaga. Their offense is made by Rodgers and co., not their line. St Louis is decent against the run, but #2 rushing the QB, so this game will likely come down to Rodgers mobility, but I also think they know not to just drop him back, so they will feed Lacy and throw Cobb multiple screens. STL also just lost their best LB.

Packers -9

Seahawks +3 @ Bengals

When Seahawks have the ball: Bengals have a d-line equally good against both rush and pass (8th) that anchors a defense that is very good against the run, and slightly better than average against the pass. They cover the TE well, but everything else they aren't great at. It's not a great matchup for Seattle, as they are decent run blockers, but horrible pass blockers. Dunlap/Johnson/Atkins are going to be collapsing that pocket at will. Over Bengals sacks, but it will be juiced. The Seahawks defense has been quietly awful, and it won't get better playing the early game out east and on the road.

When Bengals have the ball: Seahawks defensive line is good against the run and slightly below average rushing the passer. Bad matchup on the road against the best offensive line in football right now - #1 pass blocking and #5 run blocking, so Dalton should have room to work. Seattle's pass defense has been middle of the road so far, and give up plays in the slot and to the TE, but Kam back will help both of those. Bengals have the 1st and 2nd best pass/rush offense right now, but I still expect them to be held in check slightly, but they do enough to win and cover.

Bengals -3

Cardinals -2.5 @ Lions

When Cardinals are on offense: Lion’s defensive line is right around average run and pass blocking. Arizona’s offensive line has been great so far on both ends. Lions have mediocre run defense and a poor secondary, and they haven’t been playing any of the top offenses in the game thus far. They are decent against the TE and #1, but terrible against pretty much everyone else. Arizona has a good offense, particularly their pass game, and if Carson Palmer gets time he is going to be able to sling it around. Larry Fitzgerald is a matchup nightmare against slot CB Josh Wilson, so I’ll play him over catches/yards.

When Lions are on offense: Arizona’s defensive line is great against the run, but they aren’t the best pass rushers. Detroit run blocking is awful and their pass blocking is very good, so I think we can expect the Lions to throw it a little more because they won’t get much going on the ground. I would expect Patrick Peterson (who hasn’t given up 100 rec yards in this entire season) to shadow Calvin and do a pretty good job, and let Honey Badger take Tate in the slot. Both of those guys have been lights out, but Stafford will get loose for a couple big plays. I could also see him making a few stupid mistakes.

Summary: I’d be very surprised if Arizona doesn’t move the ball rather easily (or get another defensive TD) so I’m taking them -2.5, but the bet I really love is over 23.5 points for the game. And Larry Fitz props once they’re released.

Cardinals -2.5

Patriots -8.5 @ Cowboys

When Patriots are on offense: Dallas’ defensive line has been good against the run, but has not been great getting to the QB, but that doesn’t really matter because Brady throws the ball in 2 seconds. Patriots pass blocking has been good, but they are actually the 2nd best run blocking team so far. They’ve played some okay defenses, which is really what the Cowboys are. Cowboy’s are subpar against the run and pass as a team. They do get Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy back, they won’t have much time to get acclimated against the best offense in the NFL. Rolando was the best pass coverage linebacker in the league, so that will be interesting to watch.

When Cowboys are on offense: Patriots defensive line is 4th worst when it comes to stopping the run, but they are the best at rushing the passer. No doubt they will try to bring a safety into the box and dare Weeden to beat them. Dallas’ offensive line has been surprisingly mediocre, but they have lost so many weapons it might be hard to look good. As you would imagine from their d-line play, Patriots have a good pass defense but average run defense. Dallas’ offense has been surprisingly okay, above average in both run and pass, but they haven’t played a team with a pass rush yet.

Summary: I don’t think Dallas will slow down New England, especially coming off a bye. Once Dallas gets down, and when they abandon the run game, NE’s edge rushers are going to tee off on Weeden. And NE won’t let up because they are out of their mind. I know it’s stupid to give this many points on the road, but I can’t help it, I’m a sucker for the best team in football playing Brandon Weeden.

Patriots -8.5

Broncos -4.5 @ Raiders

When Broncos are on offense:  The Raiders’ defensive line has been a little below average against the run and rushing the passer, but I think they command a lot of attention because teams know if you can protect the QB, you can pass on them. Their overall run defense is actually pretty good, but their pass defense is abysmal. It doesn’t do them justice, because after they got rolled by the Bengals, here are the WRs they’ve faced – Eddie Royal, Whoever the Bears #2 WR is, Travis Benjamin, whoever the Browns #2 WR is, Steve Smith, whoever the Ravens #2 WR is. These Broncos WRs are going to light them up if they can protect Peyton. It will be nice out, during the day, I don’t expect Peyton to have issues throwing either. However, this Denver offensive line is a disaster. It’s so easy talking myself into Peyton throwing for 300 easy yards until I remember the last time I saw him throw. They really are ranked as one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Yikes.

When Raiders are on offense: Denver defensive line is sick. LB are sick. Secondary is the best in the NFL. Their pass ranking is obviously 1st, but they are down a little at 10th for run defense. Oaklands run blocking is good and their pass blocking has been great so far. Their passing offense has been good, and run game slightly below average.

Summary: Call me crazy but I think Peyton will be able to throw to wide open receivers, they just need to make sure he has time to throw. Do I think Carr/his weapons can make plays against this secondary, even if he does find time to throw? Skeptical.

*Broncos -4.5

49ers +7 @ Giants

When Niners are on offense: Giants’ defensive line has been average against the run, but they can’t get to the QB. San Francisco’s offensive line has quickly gone from one of the best to one of the worst in no time. They aren’t good at run or pass blocking. While their defensive line isn’t great, they have the top ranked run defense in the league.  Their pass defense is solid too, so Kaep will continue to be terrible on the road here. San Francisco’s pass offense is terrible, second worst in the NFL, ahead only of Jameis. Their run defense is ranked 8th, mostly because of Carlos Hyde and Kaep, not the line.

When Giants are on offense: Niners’ defensive line is brutal as well. They can’t stop the run, but they do get to the QB. Aaron Lynch, Bowman, and Brooks are still good linebackers who can make plays. Brooks is out for this game for personal stuff, so they’ll miss him. Giants have not been great at run blocking, but have been solid pass blocking. San Francisco’s secondary has been bad too. They’ve played the toughest defensive schedule so far, going against Big Ben, Rodgers, and Carson Palmer, so it’s understandable, but Eli should still have a good game. The Giants offense hasn’t been anything to right home about, but Eli has been playing relatively mistake free football.

Summary: I could see this as just another stepping stone to Kaepernick eventually getting benched. He looks terrible, and I think the Giants will put the emphasis on shutting down the run game from him and Hyde, and making them beat him with his arm against their solid enough secondary. Hyde’s o/u is 58.5, and I like the over just from volume alone.

Giants -7

Steelers +3.5 @ Chargers

When Steelers are on offense: Some offensive lines you know you will find at the bottom of the rankings, and SD is one of them, they are poor in both areas. Pittsburgh has a great running blocking line, and a poor pass blocking line. The Chargers are not good against the run, but their solid CBs and Weddle help make their pass defense half decent. Leveon Bell is going to have himself a game here. If his o/u for rush/rec yards isn’t at least 120, we all need to place a bet. Think about it, if the Steelers are winning, it’s because he ate early. If they fall behind, it will be because he ate late. Either way, dinner is served.

When Chargers are on offense: Pittsburgh’s front is not bad, so they should be able to manage San Diego’s running game. Rivers will be able to attack the secondary though, and if both Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson are out, Keenen Allen is going to be a target monster this game. They defend running backs well, but Woodhead would still get a fair share of targets too. And now that I think about it, Rivers does a good job of spreading the ball around, so if their 4th string WR is decent and open, Rivers will find him. Then I remember that San Diego’s offensive line is bad and banged up.  Rivers is carrying this offense to an absurd degree right now, but the injuries will reach a tipping point.

Pittsburgh +3.5

[godshorses]

Week 5 TNF

Hilton 5: Last Week: 4-1  Overall: 13-7

Overall: Last Week 7-7-1  Overall: 32-29-2

Another good week for the Hilton Contest, but mediocrity elsewhere. Going to mix it up this week and look at each teams match-up through a DVOA based analysis. We’ll start with Thursday Night and see how it goes, although it’s difficult with Luck out.

Colts +4.5 @ Texans

When Colts are on offense: Houston’s defensive line has held up well against the run, but have failed to get to the QB well, even with JJ Watt commanding double teams. Indy’s offensive line has been middle of the road when it comes to run blocking and pass blocking (ranked 16th for both). Texan’s defense as a whole has been underwhelming, near the bottom quarter of the league. They generally cover WRs pretty well, but haven’t been great against TEs and have been terrible against RBs catching passes. I took Frank Gore 3 or more receptions +125. The Colts have played some difficult defenses, and they still have weapons on offense that should be able to find success if Hasslebeck doesn’t poop his pants - literally - he has the flu.

When Texans are on offense: Ryan Mallett is terrible, just had to start with that. Indy’s defensive line has been sneaky good against the run, but equally as poor rushing the passer. This might not be a huge game for Arian like many expect, but I think he has a big game through the air. Took him a little +450 to get over 50 rec yards. Houston’s offensive line has their LT back, and has been solid with pass protection - so Mallett will have plenty of time to make bad decisions. But seriously, with Vontae Davis out - along with the Texan’s 2nd and 3rd WRs, Deandre Hopkins is going to get all the work he can handle again.

Summary: I’m not too confident one way or the other, but the Texan’s offense has been too terrible to give 4.5 points, so I’ll take Indy

Colts +4.5

[godshorses]

Week 4 Picks

Jets -2 @ Dolphins

Bay 2 Breakers, World Cup, and NFL Football – maybe the only three things worth getting up at 6:30 in the morning for. I’ve been really impressed by the Jets defense, so I just can’t go against them with a team that looks about ready to quit. Like seriously, I think they might not give 100% just because they know that some on the coaching staff are on the cusp of being fired, and everyone wants a shake up.

Jets -2

Texans +6.5 @ Falcons

If Arian Foster plays, I’m going to be all over this Texans line, and I’ll be up early with the London game so I should be able to hit it once it gets released, because I expect him to play. The Falcons have squeaked by a few games, and I still don’t think there’s that much talent outside of maybe 4-5 players. Their offesnive line has kept Matt Ryan intact, but they haven’t faced any good pass rushes yet, and this week changes that.

Texans +6.5

Panthers -3.5 @ Bucs

By far the worst 3-0 team in the NFL, I’m not sold on a Panthers team that will be missing Luke Kuechly and Charles Johnson. I think Jameis starts to develop some chemistry with Mike Evans (betting over 68.5 yards) and he locks up his first win at home.

Bucs +3.5

Giants +5 @ Bills

I know everyone loves the Giants and expects this game to be close, but I’m going with my gut and saying that the Bills defense puts this game out of reach by the 4th quarter.

Bills -5

Raiders -3.5 @ Bears

I’m not betting the Raiders on the road giving more than a field goal. I don’t care what is going on, I’ll believe they can cover that spread when I see it. I’m also ignoring the fact that Jimmy Clausen’s winning percentage is lower than my BAC will be at 7am tomorrow. If word leaks that Cutler is playing, it’s time to load up!

Bears +3.5

Eagles -3 @ Redskins

There’s too much talent on the Eagles defense for them to lose games to Kirk Cousins, and Sam Bradford and Demarco Murray can’t be terrible forever, right? Right???? This game should have some crappy weather, so I’m on the under 43.5 as well.

Eagles -3

Chiefs +4 @ Bengals

Another game where people like the underdog, and I don’t see it. I think the Bengals should be favored by about 6 in this game. KC is coming off a short week and traveling on the road, after they just got their ass kicked by the Packers. Their best defensive strength (pass rush) plays right into the Bengals solid offensive line, very similar to the Packers game. The Chiefs get Sean Smith back, but he’ll be a little rusty and the Bengals just have too many weapons on offense. I’ll take the over 45.5 in this game, too.

Bengals -4

Browns +7.5 @ Chargers

I think 7.5 is just too many points for a banged up Chargers team. I don’t know what Philip Rivers did in his previous life, but I feel like he hasn’t had a healthy offensive line his entire time in this league.

Browns +7.5

Jags +9 @ Colts

This is technically off the board while we wait on Andrew Luck’s status, but I haven’t seen an offense this Colts defense can stop. I fully expect Blake Bortles to buck that trend. Everyone is taking the Jags? I’ll play the contrarian.

Colts -9

Packers -8.5 @ Niners

I expect a lot of running from Kaepernick, and for them to put up a better showing after getting embarrassed in Arizona last weekend. Dom Caper’s defense has always had trouble with him, and I think Carlos Hyde (over 71.5 rush yards) has a big game and the Niners keep it close. With that said, I can’t wait until Rodgers poops on another one of my bets.

Niners +8.5

Vikings +7 @ Broncos

This is one of my favorite bets. I think that the Vikings continue to feed AP, and their defense can keep it within a touchdown. Take it from someone who has backed Peyton Manning the last 2 weeks, they have gotten insanely lucky to have covered both of those games. I love Kyle Rudolph over 37.5 rec yards as well, he’s becoming one of Teddy’s favorite targets, two of his WRs are out, and he’ll be looking to get rid of the ball fast against this Denver pass rush. 

Vikings +7

Rams +7 @ Cardinals

The Cardinals offensive line has gotten gifted 3 non-existent pass rushes so far, but the Rams are going to disrupt Carson Palmer and force him into a couple mistakes. Look for Jeff Fisher to continue to keep games just close enough so he doesn’t get fired.

Rams +7

Cowboys +3.5 @ Saints

If Drew Brees can’t put up a solid game against this Cowboys pass rush, I think we can finally call it quits on him being a top tier quarterback.

Saints -3.5

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Finally Stafford is getting the respect he deserves, which is double digits spreads as an underdog.

Seahawks -10

[godshorses]

TNF Pick

Last Week: 8-8   YTD: 25-22-1

Hilton 5: 4-1      YTD: 9-6

Props: 3-1    

Ravens -3 @ Steelers

I actually bet them moneyline, but I’ll give the 3. Remember, even though he has weapons, Michael Vick couldn’t beat out Geno Smith, and I expect Baltimore, who is the best 0-3 team that I can remember, to come out and get a win on the road. The offensive line should give Forsett and Flacco some room to work with, so if I had to lean a total I would lean on the over.

Ravens -3

Fun props

Maxx Williams and That Polish Dude are 25-1 and 70-1 first to score. Why not?

Maxx Williams over 35.5 rec yards.

[godshorses]

Week 3 Picks and Player Props

Picks to Date: 17-14-1

Quick picks this week because Zeh spent the weekend becoming an uncle. The kid is bound to be good luck, so hoping to carry on the strong picks from last week, but I do apologize for the lack of content this week.

Steelers -1 @ Rams

It’s good for everyone to have Leveon Bell back in the NFL, and he’s the perfect weapon to counteract St. Louis’ pass rush. Both him and Antonio Brown should be able to get quick passes that allow them to work in space, and I just don’t see the Rams being able to attack the weak Pittsburgh secondary with enough success to keep up with Big Ben and Co.

Steelers -1

Chargers +1 @ Vikings

This is a tough game. I felt great about taking the Vikings last week against the Lions, but that was more a lack of faith in the Lions than faith in the Vikes. The Chargers have played well both weeks, so I’m really not sure how you could take either side with much confidence.

Chargers +1

Bucs +7 @ Texans

After their upset win last week, I expect the Bucs to have a bit of a letdown game against a Texans defense that has been underperforming thus far. But unfortunately for the Texans defense, they don’t get to go against Ryan Mallett and whoever the Texans RB is this week. Oh and their LT is out.

Bucs +7

Eagles +2.5 @ Jets

This is tough because I don’t want to give up on this Eagles team yet, but my lord they looked terrible against the Cowboys last week, and it’s not going to get any easier facing the Jets on the road.

Jets -2.5

Saints +10 @ Panthers

I don’t even remember how bad Luke McCown is, but I expect the Panthers to put up enough points to cover the 10.

Panthers -10

Jaguars +14 @ Pats

With Brady and the Patriots in full on eff-you mode so far, I think I’m just going to take them until they don’t cover a spread. If anything it will be exciting rooting against Jacksonville going for a backdoor cover, and I think the Patriots can get enough pressure to force Bortles into a bad game.

Patriots -14

Bengals +2.5 @ Ravens

I’ll buy this up to 3, but I don’t feel extraordinarily great about betting against the Ravens at home, particularly because of how high I was on them going into the season. Losing Suggs has hurt, but it’s also been so glaring how badly they miss having any weapons to throw to. As for the Bengals, Geno Atkins looks back to his all-pro form, Eifert has added another weapon for Dalton, and they continue to play like one of the best teams in the league.

Bengals +2.5

Raiders +3.5 @ Browns

I wish I didn’t bail on the Raiders last week, but after their week one drubbing it was hard to stick it out. The worst part of the Raiders is obviously their horrible secondary, but much like the Ravens last week, the Browns don’t have the weapons to take advantage of it too greatly. I wouldn’t be shocked if this doesn’t go to 3 points by Sunday morning.

Raiders +3.5

Colts -3.5 @ Titans

The Colts have faced two of the best defensives in the league, I’m not going to freak out about Andrew Luck and their offense yet. I fully expect them to show up on the road and not dip to 0-3. Do I buy the half point? Hell naw.

Colts -3.5

Falcons -1.5 @ Cowboys

Falcons just seems like a sucker bet. I think Weeden will play decent enough and that the rest of the team steps up with Romo out.

Cowboys +1.5

Okay let’s go rapid fire…

Niners +6.5 @ Cardinals

Cardinals -6.5

Bears +15 @ Seahawks

Seahawks -15

Bills +2.5 @ Dolphins

Bills +2.5

Broncos -3 @ Lions

Broncos -3

Chiefs +7 @ Packers

Chiefs +7

Player Props

NE over 2.5 sacks

Allen Robinson over 62.5 rec yards

Deandre Hopkins over 70 rec yards

Jordan Matthews under 74 rec yards

[godshorses]

TNF Week 3 Pick

Last Week: 10-6

Hilton: 3-2

Well to go 10-6 last week and 3-1 with props, it boggles my mind how I got my ass kicked so bad monetarily, but then I remember about parlays and teasers and the fact that I lose all self control after a few beers, and you know what? I had a great little Sunday. Better than Cutler’s at least.

Redskins +3.5 @ Giants

Don’t feel too strongly one way or the other, but I think Washington’s defense and run game with be able to keep this close as long as they hold ODB in check. If it was the Sunday Night game and I was 12 beers deep I would probably take Redskins, the under, parlay them both, and bet No TD scored at 75-1, but since it’s Thursday and I’m sober I’ll just stay away. Oh but I am taking Jordan Reed props, that’s no joke.

Redskins +3.5

[godshorses]

Week 2 Picks

Texans +3 @ Panthers

With 10 morning games, we’re going to have a few teams that don’t find their way onto one of the TV screens. This is definitely one of those games. I’m going with the Panthers just because of their quarterback and home field, but for all we know Mallett could surprise in his first game going against a defense that is missing Luke Kuchely. I think he’s going to have some issues without Arian Foster and missing Duane Brown, his pro-bowl left tackle, so I trust Cam to put enough points to cover. 

Panthers -3

Bucs +10 @ Saints

Yes, the Bucs looked bad and Lovie Dumbshit might be the first coach fired, but don’t let that overshadow how putrid the Saints defense might be. If Mike Evans is back, I have enough faith in the Bucs offense (and lack of faith in the Saints D) that I think they can keep it within single digits.

Bucs +10

*49ers +5.5 @ Steelers

I’m trying not to overreact to the Niners victory at home against the Vikings, and I’m also taking into account the extra time off the Steelers have had, that the Niners are traveling east for a 10am game, and Kaepernick is not the second coming of Steve Young like Trent Dilfer made it seem as he was jizzing in his pants on Monday night. My lord calm down Dilfer. 

Steelers -5.5

Lions +2 @ Vikings

I am sticking to my guns and continuing to pick against the Lions. They get some of their offensive line back, and by no means did the Vikings look great, but I think Minnesota matches up pretty well with the Lions on defense, and I expect a better game from Teddy Bridgewater after he threw up the worst game of his career last week.

Vikings -2

Patriots -1 @ Bills

I wish that I could retroactively make this one of my five picks, because I think the Bills handle this one at home. The Patriots are always a team that starts slower than they finish, and Belichick has stated that he takes the early part of the season to iron out the kinks in his teams. With the Patriots starting center out, the Bills interior d-line is going to be getting pressure and collapsing the pocket on Tom Brady, which is exactly how you beat him. He’s not the best lateral mover, so if he can’t step up to throw, the entire offense takes a poop. I like the under 44.5 too, because both defensive lines are superior to the opposing offensive lines; I’ll just hope we don’t get  any defensive touchdowns to press it up.

Bills +1

Cardinals -2 @ Bears

Aaron Rodgers legitimately had one of the best games I’ve ever seen him play against the Bears last week, so I’m not getting too down on Chicago’s defense yet. I thought they held up pretty well in the run game, and Kyle Fuller got back to looking like a promising young cornerback. However, with Alshon not at 100%, and the Cardinals run defense much better than Green Bay’s, I don’t see how the Bears can make enough plays to score the points they’ll need to win, and when the game relies on Cutler to make plays, well, we know how that ends up.

Cardinals -2 (obviously I’m betting the Bears though)

Titans -2 @ Browns

Speaking of Jay Cutler, “DOOOOOOOOON’T CARE” about this game. 

Browns +2

*Chargers +3 @ Bengals

It didn’t get much publicity last week, mostly due to the fact that they beat up on the Raiders, but the Bengals looked like one of the best teams in the league. Dalton is going to have time to throw here, so I think Eifert has another big game going over the middle and this game goes over 47.5. I’ll also take the Bengals to score over 25 points, because Andy Dalton is a great bet - in a regular season game at home. 

Bengals -3

*Rams -3.5 @ Redskins

This is a total sucker bet, but I’m a sucker and Kirk Cousins is not going to be able to handle the pressure he gets from Aaron Donald and co. It might be a little low scoring, so I don’t mind buying the half point. 

Rams -3.5

*Falcons +2.5 @ Giants

The Falcons looked impressive in their victory over a good Eagles team, with decent pressure up front and an improved run game. Conversely, the Giants looked pretty terrible in a game they had no business being in, and then on top of that they still managed to find a way to lose it. 

Falcons +2.5

Ravens -7 @ Raiders

If the Ravens can’t throw on this demolished Raiders’ secondary, they might as well just throw in the towel on the season, but I think Steve Smith has one of his games where you think he took a pregame cocktail of steroids, amphetamines, and deer urine. 

Ravens -7

Dolphins -6.5 @ Jaguars

Another sucker bet, but it seems like every Jaguars line looks like a sucker bet, and then they end up losing by 10+. Did you know that the Jags have given up 4 or more sacks in 8 straight games? That’s probably not going to get much better with this Dolphins’ defensive line, and Tannehill can’t play as bad as he did last week. 

Dolphins -6.5

*Cowboys +5.5 @ Eagles

My favorite bet of the day, I think the Cowboys are in trouble in this game. The Eagles front seven has enough talent to negate their offensive line, so if the lack of weapons leaves Romo with 3rd and long situations, they might not be able to keep up with the Eagles scoring attack, which I expect to get to 30 points against a Dallas defense that lacks the pass rush to disrupt Bradford.

Eagles -5.5

Seahawks +3.5 @ Packers

I still don’t know how the Seahawks let the Rams put up 100 points on them last week, but I’m pretty sure that the problem is not just Kam Chancellor. Still, I think they’ll be okay, and with Aaron Rodgers missing his LT, they stand a better chance of getting to him and forcing him into a rare mistake. Did you know he hasn’t thrown an INT at hope since 2013? That’s ridiculous, and it’s also ridiculous that I can get him not to throw an INT at +110. 

Jets +7 @ Colts

The Jets have enough quality players on offense to score points on the Colts, similar to what they did against Cleveland. The Jets aren’t quite the defense that Buffalo is, but they should be able to get consistent pressure on Luck to keep it close.

Jets +7

Propsicles

Let’s hope Thursday’s 3-0 prop run is a harbinger of things to come. 

John Brown over 51.5 rec yards

Steve Smith over 62.5 yards

Tyler Eifert over 48.5 yards

Aaron Rodgers will not throw an INT +110

[godshorses]

Week 2 TNF

2015 Record: 7-8-1

Broncos +3 @ Chiefs

After backing Denver and being rewarded last week, despite an all-time stinker from their offense, I’m going to ride them again in hopes that Peyton will have a better showing after another week working with this offense. If it doesn’t work, we really have to wonder if bringing in Kubiak and letting him run his offense was a great idea, because Manning under center looks like it could be a disaster. I think they mix it up and run more hurry-up and more shotgun this game as a way to get things moving. Is the Broncos defense legit? I think so, which is why I think they are still a good bet at 15-1 to win the Super Bowl. I see Kansas City’s offensive line being severely mismatched against Denver, so I think the game stays close and relatively low scoring. Of course I said the same last week with KC and then Houston turned the ball over inside their own 20 every other possession.

Props:D. Thomas over 6.5 rec - Think Peyton wants to get him involved and he’ll be used heavily in the screen game. KC doesn’t have any corner to match him with Sean Smith out.

Jeremy Maclin under 57.5 yards - Feel like KC will want to control the game on the ground and avoid testing Talib/Chris Harris.

Jeremy Maclin under 4.5 rec (+130) - Because I like JUICE!

[godshorses]

Week 1 Picks

The time is finally here. It’s like Christmas Day except if Jesus was born 17 weeks in a row. And those are only the regular season births. 

I’ll start with my favorite five picks that I’ve submitted (and therefore already feel as if they’re doomed) - followed by the rest of the games and any over/unders and props that I like. The first team will be the team that I’m taking. 

Jets -3.5 vs Browns

If your bar only has like 7 boxes for the games (wait...everyone goes to bars, right?), this will be one of the games that you’re thinking of when you look around ask “Hmmm...so what games are we missing?” I wish that this was released at -3, because that’s where the line sat for most of the week, but I still think the Jets offense could be decent. Browns? Not so much, in fact this one comes down to a simple question – how are the Browns going to score? Their only weapon on offense is their offensive line, and the Jets are equipped to handle that even without Sheldon Richardson. I love Todd Bowles and think he’ll have this Jets defense ready to throw a lot of pressure at Josh McCown. The Jet’s aren’t breaking any records on offense, but they at least have some weapons to move the ball. If you don’t like the Jets offense, or even if you do, under 39.5 also looks like a good play.

Colts -2.5 @ Bills

For all the time I spent looking over things, this just comes down to taking Andrew Luck over Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod is an unknown, but that’s not because he’s new to the league, it’s because he’s probably not very good, and the fact that he beat out EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel isn’t exactly a huge vote of confidence. Bills are without their best defender in DT Marcel Dareus, and I expect the Colts to be able to game plan around the rest of the defensive line to give Luck time to make plays. 

Bears +7 @ Packers

Yeah, this could blow up in my face, but I have faith in new coaching staff, which is to say I have faith that they aren’t Mel Tucker, the ex-defensive coordinator for the Bears, who just served me my coffee at Starbucks. He fucked it up too. I ordered a caramel macchiatto and he gave me a vanilla defensive scheme. Zing. Classic Mel. The Bears defense will have an easier task with no Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb at less than 100%, so I’m hoping they can hold the Packers to under 50 points this time around. I’m also hoping that John Fox has been sandbagging the Bears injuries, and that all three WRs will be available and at full health. And lastly I’m hoping my penis grows another inch or two at age 30. A man can dream. BEAR DOWN. 

Dolphins -3.5 @ Redskins

This and Indy are probably my two favorite sides of the group. Miami’s defensive line is going to be too much for Washington, and Kirk Cousins isn’t exactly cool under pressure. I see no reason the Dolphins shouldn’t be able to move the ball on offense, they have a lot of weapons to spread it around to, so it will be hard for a mediocre Redskins defense to keep up, particularly with no pass rush to take advantage of the Dolphin’s suspect offensive line. This is the type of game Miami needs to win convincingly if they want to be taken seriously as a contender in the AFC. 

Eagles -3 @ Falcons

This pick makes me nervous, simply because everyone seems to be on the Eagles for this game, yet the line hasn’t moved at all. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant is their best player on defense, but I think the Eagles offense will do enough to avoid him and spread the ball around. The Falcons’ lack of pass rush last year was a huge problem, and the jury is still out with how upgraded it will be. Rumor is that Byron Maxwell is going to shadow Julio Jones, but I’d rather just have the Eagles bracket him and make someone else beat them, because Maxwell can’t cover him 1-on-1. 

Best of the Rest

Chiefs +1 @ Texans

My favorite bet of Week 1 is the under here at 41 points. Both quarterbacks are going to do their best to limit turnovers, and each team should be run-first from the jump. The Texans run game isn’t impressive without Arian Foster, but they need to run because they don’t want Kansas City’s pass rush to tee off on Brian Hoyer. KC’s run defense was bad last year, but getting Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson back should help that, and I just don’t see Alfred Blue and Chris Polk combining for 150 yards or finishing drives. The Texans’ defense is even better, and they need to prioritize stopping Jamaal Charles. There are just enough weapons on KC to where I think they can take this one on the road, but I’d be very surprised if it turned into a 27-21 game. 

Chargers -3 vs. Lions

Detroit’s best offensive lineman and best defender are out, and that’s after the heavy losses the defense took in the offseason. I’m not crazy about the Chargers offense, but I think Rivers will have enough to move the ball consistently. The only thing that scares me is whether Stafford will have too much time to throw, because if he does he can sling it all over the field. 

Seahawks -4 @ Rams

Another under that I love at 40.5. I know Kam is out, but this Rams offense is going to be terrible…like the worst in the NFL terrible. Honestly, would you start any player from their offense on your fantasy team? Will the defense really be able to carry them to a victory over the Seahawks like they did last year? I don’t see it, but I’m playing the under before either side, because the Seahawks might have trouble moving the ball against another one of the best defenses in the NFL. If the Seahawks offensive line can manage to somewhat protect The Messiah, this game could get our of hand, but I don’t see that happening, so hit the undeez. 

Saints +2.5 @ Cardinals

This is like one of those matchups in the first round of the NCAA basketball tourney, pitting two teams you want to bet against eachother. I’ll take the Saints just because the Cardinals’ offensive line is a complete mess, and I think the Saints will be able to run the ball efficiently enough to give Drew Brees some shots deep.

Bucs -3 vs. Titans

This is a bit of a wait and see, but if Mike Evans can give it a go, and Titans CB Perrish Cox can’t, I’ll load up on the Bucs. Titans secondary will be decimated, and Jameis will feel like he’s throwing on Duke or NC State again. 

Raiders +3.5 vs. Bengals

Who says no to an Andy Dalton/Derek Carr trade? I’m pretty sure Andy Dalton is better, but Carr has more upside simply by the fact that Dalton has no upside. 

Panthers -3.5 @ Jags

I really couldn’t care any less about this game. I’d almost rather watch the US Open final over this game...almost. 

Broncos -4.5 vs. Ravens

This is quietly the best game of the day, with Kubiak facing his former team and possible playoff preview. I’m not entirely sure who to pick in this game, so I’ll go with the healthier team. I do like the under 49 points, and Forsett over 59 yards and any carries prop I can get him at. The strength of this offense is its offensive line, and with Taliaferro out, I expect Forsett to get all he can handle as long as the game remains close. I also like Flacco under 256.5 pass yards for same reason above. Denver has a very good secondary, and Flacco has no one to throw to. Can you name his TE? Neither could I. It’s a guy named Crockett. Do you know whether that’s his first or last name? Didn’t think so. 

NY Giants +6.5 @ Cowboys

Man, I get so tired of hearing about that Odell Beckham catch, but then once I see it again I immediately regret complaining about it. This is the only over I like on the day, because both teams are going to move the ball at will, so it should be fun to watch. 

Vikings -2.5 @ Niners

How do you know what to expect from a team that seems pieced together in the offseason by a brand new coaching staff? Is Kaep going to run more? He should. Is Carlo Hyde good? Can the rugby guy get some freakin’ carries? If it was 3 points I would probably take the Niners, but even with Minnesota down two offensive linemen, I’m not sure how they get a pass rush. 

PROPS

These are from earlier in the week, and Bovada hasn’t posted any yet, but they might do it in the morning and offer some new stuff, so stay tuned.

Martellus Bennett over 5 receptions - He’s Cutler’s safety blanket and the only healthy pass catcher on the team (it moved to -150, not as cool)

Eddie Lacy over 80.5 rush yards - I hope I’m wrong, but he’s going to get 20 carries and he’ll probably average at least 4 yards per.

Edelman over 7 receptions - Pay me.

Justin Forsett over 57.5 rush yards

Flacco under 256.5 pass yards 

AJ Green over 86.5 rec yards - Because he’s a beast and no one on the Raiders can cover him. 

Melvin Gordon over 3.5 on first rush (+120) - I don’t know why.

Nick Foles will throw a INT before a TD (+105) - Foles sucks.

Russell Wilson under 234.5 pass yards - Don’t love this one as much.

Josh McCown will throw a INT before a TD (even) - McCown sucks.

Mark Ingram over 59.5 rush yards - Really like this one. With Spiller out he is going to be the work horse, and volume alone should cover this bet. Saints upgraded their offensive line to fit the run game too. 

Newbies:

Cutler under 255.5 pass yards. - Strangely, I am rooting for this. If he needs to air it out and play catch up to Rodgers, we probably are getting smoked. 

Brandon Marshall over 61.5 rec yards - He hasn’t worn out his welcome yet.

[godshorses]

Ice Cold Propsicles

For the purposes of this post, let’s assume I have $1,500 to dish out preseason. We can tally it up at the end of the year to see how it played. All these odds are current as of when I’m typing, and I’m taking the best odds I can get between Sportsbook and Bovada.

Divisions ($320) -          Falcons +200 to win the NFC South ($50) -          Bucs +800 to win the NFC South ($20) -          Seahawks -300 to win the NFC West ($150) -          Dolphins +400 to win the AFC East ($50) -          Ravens +160 to win the AFC North ($50)

Season Wins ($575) -          Cardinals U 8.5 @ -130 ($130) -          Redskins U 6.5 @ -200 ($200) -          Seahawks O 11 @ -125 ($125) -          Lions U 8.5 @ -120 ($120)

To Win the Super Bowl ($180) – I’m confident in the Seahawks to make it and then just avoiding the two favorites from the AFC.   -          Seahawks +750 ($65) -          Broncos 15-1 ($20) -          Steelers 22-1 ($20) -          Ravens 22-1 ($20) -          Dolphins 40-1 ($20)

NFL MVP ($100) -          Andrew Luck 6-1 ($50) – It’s only because Rodgers won it last year and lost Jordy a few days ago. Rodgers is easily a better QB, but I think the Colts will have a stronger record and Luck has a few more weapons than he had last year. It’s really dumb to pick anything other than QBs for MVP, so Luck, Rodgers, and Big Ben deserve their slim odds. For three longer shots… -          Sam Bradford 25-1 ($20) – I was actually hoping this was going to be like 40/50 to 1, but sportsbook has a hard on for the Eagles. After looking at their schedule, I think the Eagles are going to win 10 games with a healthy Bradford, and he’ll be putting up some big numbers just because of the volume of plays that they get off. -          Leveon Bell 25-1 and Eddie Lacy 50-1 ($15 on each)– Go with the running back for long shots. The last time it was acceptable to give the award to a non QB/RB is around the last time it was acceptable to smoke crack as a recreational drug, which was in 1986 and why Lawrence Taylor won the award. Since then 8 running backs have won the award. It takes a special talent in a high scoring offense, applicable to both Lacy and Bell.

Most Rushing Yards ($50) -          Eddie Lacy and Demarco Murray 10-1 ($25 each) – Similar to Bradford's MVP argument, they are going to have volume and opportunity to put up big stats, and if they stay healthy, they are 2 of the 5 best running backs in the league.

Most Receiving Yards: ($60) -          Julio Jones 6-1 ($50) – He has the talent, the quarterback, the targets, and the bad defense that will get them into shootouts. -          Alshon Jeffrey 20-1 ($10) – Same as above.

Most Sacks  ($30) -          Cameron Wake 15-1 ($20) – Suh and Vernon will take attention on the d-line, and I think Dolphins will jump out to a few leads, forcing the other team to throw on them. -          Khalil Mack 40-1 ($10) – Just because I want to see it.

First Coach Fired ($80) - I actually put in some work for this. Criteria is that I think the team will play below expectations, the coach isn’t 1st or 2nd year, doesn’t have more than 3 years left on his contract, and that he just looks like a loser. -          Jeff Fisher 25-1 ($20) – Fisher is entering his 4th season and continues to throw down sub-.500 seasons and make poor personnel and coaching decisions. -          Marvin Lewis 50-1 ($10) – Not bad odds. We could all see Dalton throwing a few diapers all over the field and Bengals starting 3-7. Marvin has been there so fucking long and they can’t win a playoff game, so fan pressure could mount. They did sign him to a one-year extension, and the Bengals are cheap, but it’s time for Marvin to go.   -          Jay Gruden 3-1 ($50) – Because of course it’s going to be Jay Gruden and I just want my money back. Actually no let’s bump this.

Offensive Rookie of the Year ($70) - Melvin Gordon is the favorite, but even with his opportunities he’ll have, I just don’t think he’s that great a runner. -          Amari Cooper 8-1 ($40) – He’s far and away the best receiver in this draft class, in an era where rookie receivers are not only being thrown into the fire, but being extremely successful with it. He is clearly the #1 WR on a team that will be playing from behind more often than not. Talent + Targets = Numbers. -          Jameis Winston +550 ($10) – Just a bet to get my money back. His offensive line could give him some problems, but he has the talent and weapons to throw to and won’t be on a short leash. -          TJ Yeldon 20-1 ($10) – If I’m betting a rookie RB with no timeshare on early downs, I’ll take the one with the long odds, because I’m a poor gambler. -          Tyler Locker 20-1 ($10) - I think he becomes the Seahawks #1 WR and makes some plays in the return game, and it won't help if the team wins like 12+ games.

Coach of the Year ($70) If you aren’t winning 10 games, you need not apply for this award. It also probably won’t go to Belichick after all their nonsense in the offseason. -          Chip Kelly 5-1 ($50) – Because of all the attention his personnel moves and system get, he will get all the credit if it succeeds. -          John Harbaugh 22-1 ($20) - I think this team could push for a bye in the AFC, and he's always one of the best coaches in the league.

Since they put up early Week 1 props, here are the ones I jumped on: -          Martellus Bennett over 5 receptions -          Eddie Lacy over 80.5 rush yards -          Edelman over 7 receptions -          Justin Forsett over 57.5 rush yards -          Flacco under 256.5 pass yards -          AJ Green over 86.5 rec yards -          Melvin Gordon over 3.5 on first rush (+120    -          Nick Foles will throw a INT before a TD (+105) -          Russell Wilson under 234.5 pass yards -          Josh McCown will throw a INT before a TD (even) -          Mark Ingram over 59.5 rush yards

[godshorses]

NFC North / AFC West

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (Last year: 12-4) - Updates in bold

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t won a game on the road against a team that ended the season with a winning record since 2012, going 0-8 over that timespan. Ha! Packers are fucked! Ahhh but sadly, I watch enough football to know that while that stat is intriguing, it probably doesn’t mean that much. Call it a jinx (I picked them to beat the Patriots last year), but if I’m putting money on a team to win the Super Bowl, it’s Green Bay (Holy shit what a jinx, this was written before Jordy went down). That’s not some bold statement, they are the favorite with Seattle at +750, but if Rodgers stays healthy and their defense isn’t abysmal, they are winning 13 games and getting a bye and going into the playoffs at like +250. Plus it’s a win-win situation for a Bears fan, the cash consolation prize for how unfair life is. (Keep going...) What is a little confounding is how they had about 14 million dollars leftover to spend in free agency and chose to do nothing to upgrade their defense. The window for championships doesn’t last long, so why not upgrade that pathetic defensive line? That’s what happens when you have a team owned by a bunch of diabetes patients who wear curdled cow piss on their heads and elect Scott Walker to run their state. Just poor decision making.

Man this gets good...I’ll leave it all and sit back and watch: The offense is the most talented in the league, and now that they are playing at a faster pace, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them put up some record breaking numbers this year. I really like their 3rd round pick, WR Ty Montgomery, and I’m not even sure how much playing time he will get buried behind Jordy, Cobb, DeVante Adams. The offensive line is good, Lacy is a truck and a fantastic pass protector, and Starks is a great #2 change of pace back. And lastly, Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL. That’s like a jinx on viagra. 

Now, their defense might be a collection of dog turds. I have no idea how they are going to get pressure on the quarterback, having moved Clay Matthews to ILB and with Julius Peppers a year older. They really aren’t above average at any position group, unless you count LB, but that’s only leading the league in unattractiveness. The talent level will make it just fucking baffling when Cutler opens the season 17-33 with 1 TD and 3INTs against them, but let’s save this rant for Week 1 picks. Certainly not enough jinx there, but it’ll do. 

Predictions: Jordy makes it back Week 5 from him ACL tear. Eddie Lacy runs for MVP and President and wins both. God breaks up with Russell Wilson for Aaron Rodgers. 

Prediction: 16-0

Detroit Lions (Last year: 11-5)

If there’s ever a team to gloss over because I’m pressed on time, it’s Detroit. I have as much time for them as Antonio Cromartie has for his children: 6 minutes.  

Quickly now, Calvin just got his 100,000 mile check-up, his 3rd trip to the shop in the past  2 years, and it’s not looking good. Sure for a few weeks it will be running great, but you’re starting to think about getting a AAA card just in case something happens. For Calvin, it’s not even major injuries, his body is just slowly failing him. They have a pretty dope 2nd car with Golden Tate, but the problem is he’s about one-fifth as dope as he thinks he is. The offensive line is solid when healthy, but they’ve dealt with injuries in the offseason and might not be healthy for Week 1.They should be similar to what they’ve been the last two years. 

The defense however, should not. Detroit’s defensive line is now more decimated than its credit rating. On top of the losses of Suh, Fairley, and Mosley, Deandre Levy has been banged up too, and now appears likely to miss week 1. I tend to believe that their secondary was more a product of their fantastic defensive line, so we will see how this plays out, but I think the defense is going to take a huge step back from their fantastic showing last year.

Predictions: Detroit goes back-to-back years with a player getting hurt celebrating, when Golden Tate dunks on the goalpost after a 3-yard-gain at midfield. Jim Caldwell does his best impression of an old man with dementia on the sideline. Detroit goes under their 8.5 wins and finishes last in the NFC North.

Record Prediction: 5-11

Minnesota Vikings (Last year: 7-9)

Whose brilliant idea was it to promote “Family Day” at Vikings camp by using the Vikings official team account to tweet out a picture of AP and his kid. It’s like they hired the guy from Bud Light who came up with the tagline that Bud Light was “the perfect beer for removing ‘no’ from your vocabulary for the night”. And take a look at the linked picture, am I wrong in stating that’s a creepy way to kiss your son? Or did my Dad just not love me enough to kiss me on the lips? Either way I feel weird looking at it, and you should too.

I think the Vikings have some good pieces, but here’s the problem. I have two good friends who are Vikings fans, and they are so optimistic about this team, it’s annoying. It almost forces my hand in becoming a critical asshole. It’s like when you know a couple who incessently brag about how smart their child is, so deep down you want the kid to develop a learning disability. I am a horrible human.

The Vikings were another team to suffer a big injury pre-season, losing RT Phil Loadholt to an achilles tear and WR Cordarrelle Patterson to another severe case of “hype”. Also, I can assume that by the time I post this, Kyle Rudolph will be on the IR. However, the offense should take a step forward, with AP returning from a year-long paid vacation, guard Brandon Fusco coming back from injury, and the addition of Mike Wallace. It will be interesting to see whether Bridgewater, who isn’t exactly a big armed QB, can get on the same page as Wallace. Bridgewater is like a slightly less athletic version of Ryan Tannehill, so we’ll see how that plays out, Also, I’m just stoked on my black/white athlete comparison, particularly because the white guy is more athletic. I’m breaking barriers guys. One thing is certain, you can’t get much worse than the Tannehill/Wallace deep ball. The QB rankings that ESPN released had Teddy behind Derek Carr, which is absurd. I find myself falling into the trap of worrying too much about how a QB looks when he throws the ball, but when you ignore that Teddy needs two gloves because he has hobbit hands, his production in his rookie season was off the charts, and you understand why he was the top QB prospect for most of his senior season at Louisville.

The defense is slightly above-average at every unit, but doesn’t excel at any particular group. Nothing sucks worse than when the guy you want your team to draft goes to a division rival, and that’s exactly what happened when they took MLB Eric Kendricks. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team win ten games, and I think they are firmly entrenched as the second best team in the NFC North now.

Predictions: The rest of this post will make no sense, because I had to gouge my eyes out after writing that last sentence. Oh gd teh beaars aer up noww.

Prediction: 9-7

Chicago Bears (Last year: 5-11)

My mother always said, keep your expectations low, because you aren’t very talented and most likely you will accomplish nothing in your life. That is exactly how I feel about this Chicago Bears team. The Bears are sitting at 30-1…TO WIN THE FREAKING NFC NORTH. They are 100-1 to win the Super Bowl. Those are the same odds that John Kerry and Mike Huckabee have to be our next President. One of those guys isn’t even fucking running! Oh God, this is so embarrassing!

The offensive line is mediocre outside of Kyle Long. Our top four WRs are all out injured at the moment I write this, and they are being so vague I’m not even sure Alshon will be ready for the opener. Matt Forte is at the age where he is going to decline, and was among the worst running backs in the league at breaking long runs anyways. Martellus Bennett is great, but insane. This is all before we even consider that Jay Cutler has had more offensive coordinators than he has beautiful follicles of hair. As Cutler’s lifelong defense attorney, I have to blame that on his bad reputation, as well as nothing is ever his fault. Take a look – 8 INTs weren’t even his fault last year, most in the league!

On pure enjoyment levels I get out of writing, writing about this defense would rank right behind writing about when I shit my pants in Little League. For that one you’ll have to wait until I publish my memoirs, titled: “The Zeh: All Deh, Every Deh”. Now let’s go through this cast of characters on defense from best to worst. Pernell McPhee: signed from the Ravens, where he played alongside a fantastic front-seven, so he most likely will regress. Jeremiah Ratliff: Suspended for DWI and old. Kyle Fuller: Promising start to his rookie season before falling off a cliff. Lamarr Houston: Tore his ACL celebrating a sack when we were down 250 points. Adrian Amos: Rookie safety, I don’t know much about him, which immediately makes him out fifth best defender. Jared Allen: Drunk. Antrel Rolle: Injured soon. Shea McClellin: Moved from DE to OLB to MLB, and we will keep moving him to new positions until he is kicking field goals. Then, and only then, will we officially declare him a bust. I honestly don’t even know how you put together a defense this bad for the 3rd year in a row.

Predictions: Did you feel that jinx? Because that was a total jinx! John Fox and Vic Fangio make dessert out of dogshit. Jay Cutler begins to care. Bears go…

Prediction: 6-10 (also a jinx)

AFC West

Denver Broncos (Last year: 12-4)

It won’t be easy to erase my last memory of the 2014 Broncos, as they got walloped by the Colts. After watching the first two series from Peyton Manning, it was clear that I might as well have bet on Archie Manning. Of course it came out after the fact that Peyton was injured, but I think we're at the point where Peyton claiming to be injured is like an older man with erectile dysfunction saying he can’t perform because he's drunk, despite only having two beers. Starts to sound like a lot of excuses if ya know what I mean. I hate to break it to you Omaha, but you might be getting noodle dicked. 

Even if Peyton is well past his prime, there is still plenty of talent on this team. Their offensive line is a mystery, but Manning has never been one to hold onto the ball long, and the weapons on offense should allow them to complete drives down the field. Combining the run game prowess of new head coach. Gary Kubiak (whose offensive lines have averaged 6th in the league in rushing during the last 20 years) and the pass game prowess of Manning (whose offensive lines have averaged...wait for it…2nd in adjusted sack rate over his career), this offense should be fun to watch. In fact, Peyton's offensive lines have only been outside the top-2 in adjusted sack rate twice in his career, and last year the difference between Denver’s 1st and the 2nd adjusted sack rate was the same as the difference between 2nd and 11th, which is truly remarkable.  

Defensively, they may be a little soft against the run in the middle of the field, but they should be able to make up for it with their pass rush and secondary. Talib and Chris Harris are a great tandem of inside/outside corners, Brandon “I’m the sane one” Marshall is one of the best coverage linebackers in the game, and Von Miller is one of the best pass rushers in the game.

Predictions: Peyton does a Cialis commercial. And a Viagra commercial. And every commercial. My God, can you imagine if Peyton did a DraftKings commercial? I think all of advertising with implode on itself like a dying star. 

Prediction: 10-6

Kansas City Chiefs (Last year: 9-7)

Andy Reid continues to prove me wrong. Not with coaching, just with staying alive. Every year he has to be one of the hot celebrity death pool draft picks, and every year his greased up heart just keeps on pumping.

I’ve always given Alex Smith a hard time, and while I still don’t think he’s Super Bowl bound anytime soon, he’s an above average regular season QB who is perfect for this run-first team. Jamaal Charles does more with a mediocre offensive line than anyone else in football, taking an average ranked group and churning out 5+ yards a pop. They lost their best offensive lineman, Rodney Hudson, to the Raiders in free agency, and have since moved uber bust Eric Fisher to RT in hopes that they salvage something out of the former #1 overall pick. I expect the run game will lose a step, but that will be made up for by actually having a #1 WR with the signing of Jeremy Maclin and also the emergence of Travis Kelce. It will be interesting to see how much Alex Smith’s ball security (6 INTs all of last year) is affected by having weapons he can force the ball to a little bit more.

The defense is starting to get healthy right as Week 1 comes up. Perhaps the best story of the offseason is that of Eric Berry, who beat cancer and is back on the roster, adding depth to an already solid group of safeties. The Chiefs had one of the best pass defenses in the league, owed in part to their pass rush, safeties, and cornerback Sean Smith (who is suspended the first 3 games for a deweyyy). Their run defense was abysmal, so getting pro bowl linebacker Derrick Johnson back should go a long way to helping that. I think it’s another good season for the Chiefs, and I could see them pushing Denver for the division.

Predictions: Chiefs fans continue to bring the homefield advantage. Alex Smith, Jeremy Maclin, and Travis Kelce all go to the Pro Bowl. 

Record Prediction: 10-6

San Diego Chargers (Last year: 9-7)

I tried to read up on some of the stadium issues the Chargers are facing in trying to keep the team in San Diego, but holy shit was that boring (and confusing). I wish I had John Oliver’s accent to explain it to me like it did some of the other stadium issues. 

The offense continues to be propped up by Philip Rivers, and he should have enough weapons to keep them hovering right around .500 again this year, every fans dream. Keenan Allen should have a better year, and getting Danny Woodhead back and signing Stevie Johnson should give a boost to his numbers as well. Their offensive line was pretty abysmal last year, but they threw some money at LG Orlando Franklin and are kicking DJ Fluker inside to RG, so maybe the changes help. 1st round pick Melvin Gordon didn’t show the best vision in preseason, and it would worry me when he’s coming from a college offensive line factory at Wisconsin, but this should remain a pass-first team.

On defense, there are still question marks and injury risks, because of course there are – this is National FOOTBALL League. The pass defense was solid, led primarily by two pro-bowl level talents in Brandon Flowers and Eric Weddle. They also get Jason Verrett back, a rookie from last year who looked really good before he went down with injury. Their front seven is probably a little bit below average, and as I take it as my job to remind you of things you know, never forget about Manti Teo’s catfishing story. God that was good television. How could you ever trust that decision making to command your defense!? The group as a whole just needs to do a little better job at forcing turnovers, and having LBs Victor Butler and Melvin Ingram healthy would go a long way towards facilitating that.  

Predictions: Stevie Johnson ends up as the best fantasy WR on the roster. Danny Woodhead finally hits his growth spurt. Philip Rivers continues in his quest to out sperm TLC’s “19 Kids and Counting” show. 

Prediction: 8-8

Oakland Raiders (Last year: 3-13)

I felt pretty good about my Raiders to have the worst record in the league bet when they blasted out to an 0-10 start to the season, only to be crushed when Lovie Dumbshit and his Bucs completely shat the bed to the tune of 2-14. Side note: That’s a fun bet to make as the bizarro Super Bowl bet. It’s nice  because you don’t have to worry as much about injuries, just breakout players, which occur much less frequently.  

The jury is still out on Derek Carr. He didn’t have a good year but he’s young and he didn’t look scared or lost, a la Christian Ponder or Blaine the Magnificent. One positive is that while he didn’t have much to work with, and the coaching staff took way too long to plug in Latavius Murray, he only threw 12 interceptions in his 16 games started. That number is even more impressive when you take into account that they were constantly playing from behind, putting him in blatent passing situations. His sack rate was also among the lowest in the league, which means instead of taking sacks, he’s making smart throwaways. In fact, their adjusted sack rate was 3rd in the league, and they were the only team in the top 7 of that category not to make the playoffs. Howevah, Why did that happen? Because Raiders were insanely conservative on offense, hardly ever throwing the ball downfield, which is what led to Carr averaging about 0.035 yards per pass attempt (approximate). Again, that’s possibly because of the lack of weapons around him, so we won’t get a good idea of how good Carr is until this season. Also, I will end up calling David Carr, “Derek”, at least 1,000 times this year. Wait, his name is Derek. Damnit, Derek. David. 

As for the defense, on one hand they have one of the most exciting young defenders in the league in Khalil Mack. Like Amari Cooper, he was taken with the 4th pick but had the talent to go 1st overall, and he played like a #1 overall pick in his rookie season. He’ll have to keep that up, because behind him is one of the worst secondaries, particularly at cornerback. In fact, I’ll venture to say it might be the worst position group in the NFL. The run defense wasn’t terrible last year, and they added Dan Williams from Arizona to plug the middle, so if they can just get something out of their corners, this could be an average defense.

Predictions: I’m going to own Amari Cooper in nearly all my fantasy leagues. I am going to own Derek Carr in zero fantasy leagues. I am going to feel like a horrible slaver when I talk about owning players like this. Honestly though, if I could own one actual player, I would definitely own JJ Watt. He would call me “boss” and it wouldn’t even sound sarcastic and we’d be friends but he’d still do whatever I wanted him to. Obviously I don’t need to tell you who would be the worst. “DOOOOOON’T CARE.”

Record Prediction: 6-10

[godshorses]

NFC West / AFC North

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks (Last year: 12-4)

Look I’m not one to judge, but I can’t be the only one who is weirded out that Russell Wilson claims God speaks directly to him. Is anyone going to suggest that he might be completely insane? Let me get this straight Russ, the freakin’ CREATOR OF OUR UNIVERSE told you that he wants you to date Ciara, but not to have sex with her? That’s like some creepy serial killer shit. When a woman says that God told her to drown her child, we all rightly assume she’s loony, but when God tells Wilson not to bone and that He forced the Super Bowl game-ending interception, that makes sense? Who really is more nuts? At least in the Bible, God actually told a parent to kill his kid. I still haven’t found the verse where God tells someone to jump a hot route, but then again I haven’t brushed up on my Bible recently.  

Back to reality, the Seahawks are rightly entering the season as Super Bowl favorites, but with the hefty contracts given out over the past year, sapping some of their offensive and defensive line depth, they are going to be relying on health far more than they have in the past. Time has ran out on their rookie salaries, and now their S, ILB, CB, TE, and QB are all top-3 highest paid at their respective positions, with Lynch not far behind. Their offense should be improved with Jimmy Graham and 3rd round pick Tyler Lockett, who might already be the best wide receiver on the team. Think Percy Harvin - except Lockett actually knows how to play WR. He was always a guy who stood out last year when I found myself watching a random Kansas State game because it was televised and I have gambling issues. While Marshawn Lynch has the 3rd most carries of any active RB, and you might think that could be an issue, but then you remember that Marshawn is a psychopath and normal physiological rules don’t apply to psychopaths. For example, did you know that Charles Manson grew 4 inches last year at the age of 79? Weird, right? I’ll believe Marshawn loses a step when I see it. For all the truck stick hype he gets, he has always had fantastic vision, similar to Frank Gore who is actually 1st on the list of carries by active RBs. Also, you are retarded if you actually looked up that Charles Manson fact, but he is going to live to 100. 

On defense, they lost their defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, so it will be interesting to see if that leads to any drop off in production. I don’t think it will, they run pretty basic stuff and just let their talent make plays. To that point, they still have Kam Chancellor, the best strong safety in the league, holding out like a schmohawk. That seems like it’s going to be something that extends into this season, at least until Chancellor starts to miss getting paid, and I have a feeling Kam Chancellor loves getting paid. The rest of the main pieces are all back, and it looks like they found a diamond in the rough in 2nd round rookie Frank Clark. I mean sure it makes it easy to find talent late with guys who have already been found guilty of domestic abuse and felony theft by age 19, but that’s none of my business. Yes, so much snark for the Seahawks! Their fans need to take that as a complement, because envy always breeds haters, and I am a full blown Seahawks HATER. It’s gotten so bad that I pee haterade, and then drink that haterade when I thirst for more hate, and then repeat. However, I also love money, so let’s take the Seahawks over 11 wins and prey to God that he keeps his youngest son Russell healthy and in the closet. 

Predictions: Kam Chancellor comes back Week 5 after realizing he’s heavily invested in Bitcoin. Jimmy Graham misses at least 5 games with injury. Seahawks still have this division locked up by Week 16.

Record Prediction: 13-3

Arizona Cardinals (Last year: 11-5)

Remember when Ryan Lindley quarterbacked this team into a playoff game? Seems like so long ago, but we must never forget. Bill Barnwell has written quite a bit about some of the reasons Arizona is primed for a down year, and I agree with him on nearly all of them. He focuses on a lot of the advanced stats, and while I agree with those too, I think losing defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is going to be tougher than expected. Contrary to the Seahawks losing Quinn, Bowles always seemed to call great defensive playcalls, getting the most out of his good (but not great) talent. 

On offense they are getting back Carson Palmer, but they have a pretty terrible offensive line, and I’m just not sure how mobile Palmer is going to be coming off his 2nd ACL tear. Nothing would make me sadder than seeing my fellow SM alumni hurt, because I’ve heard how hard he works to rehab and how devastating these injuries have been, but they just haven’t hit on their recent offensive line draft picks, and their big signing in guard Mike Iupati is already shelved from knee surgery. Their run game was awful last year, and thanks to multiple injuries, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be much better. I like John Brown, but part of that is because I think Arizona is going to be playing in high scoring, come-from-behind type games.

They also lost a few solid contributors on defense, and didn’t spend the cap space to replace them. Calais Campbell is a beast, but the rest of their linemen are injury prone or mediocre, and their linebackers are complete question marks. I’m glad Peterson got his diabetes under control, but I’m not sure his down year can be completely blamed on that, especially when he doesn’t even know which diabetes he has. Basically, the individual players on this defense aren’t anything to write home about, and with Bowles gone it looks like they could be primed for a serious regression.  

Predictions: Patrick Peterson accidentally eats sugar free cookies before his Week 2 game, throwing his blood sugar out of whack as he gives up 5 touchdowns to Alshon Jeffery. Jay Cutler eats the same sugar free cookies, realizes he doesn’t even have diabetes, and turns into Joe Montana. Bears win the game and move to 2-0, well on their way to 19 straight wins. 

Record Prediction: 7-9

San Francisco 49ers (Last year: 8-8)

The best story I heard while researching San Francisco’s offseason was of owner Jed York coming into a Niners team meeting, followed by Jim Harbaugh telling him to leave because the meeting was for “men only”. God, what a sick burn. York should have just pulled down his pants and let the whole team spank him after that. And yeah, I would say Harbaugh probably wanted out if he’s pulling shit like that. This poor team though, I haven’t seen a makeover this ugly since Renee Zellweger decided she wanted to enter witness protection. Christ, which is a bigger disaster, Bridget Jones or San Fran?. At least Niners fans can sleep at night knowing it wasn’t self-inflicted. Picking up Rugby players now? I’d make fun of that, except the dude seems like such a badass. Now I think every team should be forced to sign a rugby player. And Nascar, just to see how those “athletes” would fare out there. And tennis.

I’ll admit bias to this team as well, because the fans are diehards but insufferable, so it’s hard to be happy when they are winning. Or maybe it’s just Kaep who annoys, but either way take everything I say with a grain of salt. I just wouldn’t be surprised to see this team fail to win 6 games this year. On offense, I can’t imagine them being in the top half of the league. Kaep is a bigger and slower Michael Vick, with a strong arm but little touch and less awareness. How many times does he hold the ball while running out of bounds 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage? Have you ever seen The Seattle Messiah do that? Here, I’ll try to put a positive spin on the offense. Kaep might be less bad this year. Vernon might be less bad this year. The offensive line might be less bad than I think they will be. And Carlos Hyde could be good. Crazier things have happened.  

As for their defensive departures, it’s going to be rough, but you have to give props. You have to respect Justin Smith, who is walking away from a great career before his skills erode on the field. You have to respect Chris Borland, who would rather not end up walking like Colin Kaepernick’s tortoise when he’s 45-years-old. And you have to respect Aldon Smith, who simply wants to be wasted all the time. Mad respect Aldon, you follow your heart. Maybe it’s true when you hear that they have a ton of depth so the drop off won’t be that severe, but if I have to guess one way or the other, this looks like a team that could bottom out.

Prediction: Jim Tomsula gets kicked out of his own “men only” meeting. We get an appearance from Blaine the Magnificent (okay that’s just my hope). There isn’t an exciting game at Levi’s stadium until Super Bowl 50.

Record Prediction: 6-10

St. Louis Rams (Last year: 6-10)

Sorry, but Nick Foles is a loser. I’m not sure who I’m apologizing to, because it’s not like Nick Foles is reading this - because I’m fairly certain Nick Foles can’t read. Foles is going from penthouse to outhouse with Chip Kelly and the Eagles’ offensive line to Jeff Fisher and this new one, which is why one of the most ridiculous stats I’ve seen is that Football Outsiders has the Rams as the 6th most likely team to win the Super Bowl this year. I’ll respect it, but that must mean that they are insanely high on this defense.

They don’t have many weapons, so they need Brian Quick to develop and stay healthy, and for Todd Gurley to be become a superstar. I don’t think the latter will happen his rookie year, when he’s coming off ACL surgery and tasked with a poor offensive line. In fact, I’m surprised this offense isn’t getting more attention for how terrible they might be. What is there to like? Is THIS going to be the year that Jared Cook breaks out? I’m going to say that no, it isn’t.

I understand the love on defense though, this is a deep, top-2 defensive line, with solid linebackers, and a good secondary that could take the next step (although they recently lost EJ Gaines, their top corner who played lights out as a rookie). Aaron Donald was so good last year that he beat out Khalil Mack for Rookie of the Year, yet somehow Mack has gotten more attention this offseason. I would go on, but I won’t know any Rams fans until they move to LA next year.

Predictions: Foles comes in at #7 of Donald Trumps’ 50 Biggest Losers in America list, nestled in between Kareen Abdul Jabbar and anyone who isn’t a white male. Robert Quinn gets a lot of sacks. Jeff Fisher gets fired at the end of the season.

Record Prediction: 7-9

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year: 11-5)

Bobblehead Ben had an MVP type season last year, leading the league in yards while throwing 32 touchdowns to only 9 interceptions. Unfortunately, a lot of the MVP voters have daughters so they can’t in good conscience vote for a sexual predator. He was without a doubt a top-5 QB last season, leading an abysmal defense to the playoffs before getting bounced without having Leveon Bell in their playoff game. He also played all 16 games for only the 3rd time in his 11 seasons. 

The offensive side of the bell appears set, as they were returning their complete (and finally competent) offensive line for the first time in ages until Pouncey went down for a multiple weeks. Even without him, and with Martavis Bryant suspended for four games, should be able to carry the load into the second half of the season. Actually, Leveon is out for 2 games too? Okay they might struggle early on if teams decide to bracket Antonio Brown and make anyone else beat them. We all wish we got Patriots -3 pre-Brady appeal. Because this defense...

You know the smash mouth Steelers football that everyone loves to talk about? Well that officially died the last two years. They said “goodbye” to Dick Lebeau, the legend, the Grandfather of the NFL defense. He got that title because he’s so old that he literally came up with the concept of defense in football. Before he came around, it was just a bunch of dudes seeing how fast they could advance the ball 100 yards. I expect getting rid of Lebeau and replacing him with their linebackers coach will make a modicum of difference; the dude is freakin’ 77 years old. Initially, I subconsciously typed “the dude was 77 years old”, because I just assume everyone is dead at 77. I won’t be able to figure out how my Depends work at 77, much less figure out how to stop Andrew Luck in the no-huddle. So yes, it’s a coaching upgrade most likely, but you can’t ignore that as good as their offensive additions have been, their free agents and drafts picks have been just as bad on the defensive side of the ball. It’s hard to predict anything with confidence about a team with so many questions marks on the defensive side of the ball, but just looking at their personnel, there isn’t very much to like. Shazier could have a breakout second season, and Cameron Heyward is a good 3-4 DE, but after that it’s draft picks and shitty returning players. The defense could make a leap under a new DC and they grab a 1st round bye while going 13-3, or they could suffer any injury to one of their main 3 offensive players and tailspin into a 6-10 season. Personally, I don’t think their defense could get much worse than last year, and after dropping some dead weight, just being league average should get them to 10 wins.

Prediction: Antonio Brown catches everything. Mike Tomlin continues to make us wonder whether he is a good coach. James Harrison’s kids’ trophy room remains empty. 

Record Prediction: 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals (Last year: 10-5-1)

A good team with a few great pieces, there isn’t much that has changed about this Bengals team over the past 2-3 seasons. It’s not even enjoyable to make fun of Andy Dalton anymore, to be honest. He’s just bad. He’s like the Sand Snakes from Game of Thrones, you can surround him with a great supporting cast, but he just brings the whole production down a notch. Sorry Bengals fans, “you want the good quarterback, but you get the bad poosey”. I’m also sorry for non-Game of Thrones fans who didn’t get that terrible joke. Just know that the analogy...it plays. 

Their offensive line is probably the best position group they have, which makes it strange that they drafted o-linemen with their first two picks. One is coming off a torn ACL and they are just preparing him to replace Andre Smith who is going to be a free agent, so no help this year and their offense didn’t improve through the draft or free agency. One addition they are looking for is to have their WR corps stay healthy for a season so they give Andy Dalton some tools to gently manage, like he’s a female housekeeper. Obviously Jeremy Hill is pretty sick, but everyone knows that so we can move on. 

Their defense had the 2nd biggest offense/defense DVOA discrepency in the league last year after the Browns, with a 7th ranked pass defense and 28th ranked run defense, and I don’t see much changing there. Outside of Geno Atkins and Vontaze Burfict, this is a bad run defense unit, and Burfict is hurt and out for first half of the season. 

Predictions: Marvin Lewis looks confused. Ray Maualuga gets my annual “Running in Quicksand Award” for the old player who looked slow last year, so will be on steroids this year (Last years winner: Antonio Gates). Week 17 ends with a nail biting finish that will determine whether or not Andy Dalton gets to lose another playoff game. 

Record Prediction: 9-7

Baltimore Ravens (Last year: 10-6)

I love that when Gary Kubiak left his OC post in Baltimore to become head coach in Denver, the Baltimore Ravens brought in Marc Trestman, followed by Trestman saying he wasn’t going to change the offense. Do you think that was how he interviewed?

GM Ozzie Newsome: So tell me Marc, tell me what you’re going to bring to this offense.

Trestman: Nothing.

Newsome: …you’re hired.

I mean, you could have paid me like 1/10th of Trestman’s salary and I would have come in and not changed the offense, too. And I’d do it without looking like a creepy serial killer. 

The offense is going to be run centered. I love Justin Forsett this year, which is why it kills me that I don’t have him in any fantasy teams. He’ll be worth a nice little longshot bet for a rushing title though. Flacco doesn’t have much to work with, so it will be interesting who can emerge at WR to give them another threat to work with on offense.

Defensively, they bring back the best linebacking corps in the game, and also get Jimmy Smith back from injury. Second year DT Timmy Jernigan is a big reason why they were okay in trading Haloti Ngata, so it will be interesting to see how he does. I think they are one wide receiver away from being a serious Super Bowl contender again. 

Predictions: Baltimore wins the AFC North at +200. Justin Forsett ends up as a top 5 fantasy RB. John Harbaugh wins COY. 

Record Prediction: 11-5

Cleveland Browns (Last year: 7-9)

In other news, there is a Bush or Clinton running for President, Leo and Scoreses are making another dope ass movie, and the Browns are going to have a losing record. Sometimes I wonder what it would be like to be a Browns fan, but then I remember that I’m a Cubs fan, and I weep. 

I think I might have played this game last year, but can you even name both of their starting wide receivers? You can’t, can you?! Who is their starting RB? Who is their quarterback!? Oh my, it’s Josh McCown! Or Johnny Manziel! Freakin’ guy went to rehab for like 2 months like he’s Charlie Sheen or something. I guarantee you that Gronk parties way harder than he does, the only difference is, Gronk doesn’t suck at football. Admit it John, you went to the Cleveland Facility to get your image rehabbed, and nothing more. And yes, he should go by John now that he’s sober, because Johnny is reserved for dudes who party like Johnny Carson and Johnny Bananas. The only way rehab solves anything is if he was doing a drug that kept him short, stupid, and inaccurate.

To pile on, they also got a new offensive coordinator, and his resume looks like he’s qualified to run the offense of a mid to upper-level D2 college. He’s been the QB coach for a lot of terrible quarterbacks, so he will at least be comfortable with McCown and John. Let’s see, it looks like their offseason splashes to replace suspended WR Josh Gordon are Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartl- sorry hold on a second I must have clicked on an old link from 2009…nope, sorry, they actually did sign Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline to be their #1 and #2 wide receivers this year. To be positive, their offensive line, anchored by all-everything LT Joe Thomas, the returning C Alex Mack, and stud guard Joel Bitono, should be among the better in the league, it’s just a shame they don’t have the weapons to capitalize on it.

Head coach Mike Pettine is a defense first coach, coming from Baltimore in the early 2000’s and Rex Ryan’s Jets, so it’s not a huge shocker they went defense again early in the draft. 1st rd pick Danny Shelton looks like the real deal, and they also picked up Randy Starks from Miami, a solid DT to go with him. That is a good way to address their 31st ranked run defense and hope it catches up with their 2nd ranked pass defense. Their pass rush was decent last year, and Joe Haden/Tashaun Gibson are a top 5 corner/safety combo in the league. They also overpaid signed Tramon Williams to man the 2nd corner spot. It could be a very good defense, I just don’t think it’s good enough to compete in this division while playing against the AFC/NFC west teams this year. At first glance I thought the under might be a best bet, but the defense, should keep them in most games.

Predictions: John Football remains as fun to root against as Kim Jong Un and Kanye West. Terrelle Pryor gets inspired by Braxton Miller and ends up starting at WR. Browns fans turn their attention to the Cavs by mid November.

Record Prediction: 5-11

[godshorses]

Zeh’s 2015 NFL Preview

Welcome my friends, to the Zeh’s 2015 NFL Preview. The perfect reading material for toilet time, even if you want sit down Larry David style to have a nice relaxing pee, I’m here for you. I’ll be posting 2 division previews at a time, with the last one Wednesday accompanied by a few season bets and props before things kickoff on Thursday night. As you may or may not know, I’ll be posting a weekly picks column during the year, with 5 games highlighted as my “Hilton 5” favorites, and the difference this year is that I’m actually entered into the Hilton Supercontest and will be making the picks on behalf of myself and a few friends. The team name is Vancho, and I’ll post a link to track how I’m doing once the season gets started. These picks are all for fun, so don’t follow them unless you enjoy MAKING SHITLOADS OF MONEY FOR DOING NOTHING. No but seriously don’t gamble it’s bad. 

Throughout the preview I’ll occasionally have parentheses where there have been changes since the time of writing because of how much I jump around before posting these. The majority of the research I’ve done comes from a few sources: Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, FiveThirthyEight, and Stephen A. Smith’s twitter account. Now here we gooooooo!!!!

NFC East

Dallas (Last year: 12-4)

Going from Demarco Murray to Joseph Randle is like going from Stephen Colbert to Larry Wilmore. Huge downgrade from an MVP performer to “Who the hell is that guy? Oh, I remember him, he was okay in small doses, but he’s not ready to carry the load”. And while yes, Joseph Randle still has that dynamite offensive-line, the “Daily Show” lead-in if you will, you just don’t know what he is going to do with it. The good news for Cowboys fans is, contrary to my analogy, there’s no way Joseph Randle will be as bad as Larry Wilmore. Larry Wilmore wouldn’t make me crack a smile while high on laughing gas.

Other than Demarco, they didn’t lose a starter from an offense that was 4th in the league and an offensive line is regarded by most as the best in the league, and without a doubt the best run blockers. Tony Romo had the best QBR in the league (with a bad back) and Dez didn’t lose his mind, so the season was a huge success. I was confident that if they had hung on against GB, they would have gone into Seattle and won for the second time last season, and given NE a good game in the Super Bowl. The problem is they probably can’t rely on being the second healthiest offense in football again.

For all the health they had on offense, they were the 5th most unhealthy defense, and that hasn’t changed with losing Orlando Scandrick for the season already this preseason. I know it’s silly, but I really do feel a bond with a player who gets popped for doing molly in Mexico. I find myself wondering stupid things like what type of music he listens to or what type of gum he chews. Either way, get well soon Orlando. Last year the defense was 25th in yards per play allowed and 15th in ppg allowed, so they weren’t good, and it helped a lot that their offense was 1st in the league at time of possession. They added a few weapons on defense, and not just the one’s that Greg Hardy brought with him from Carolina. Sean Lee is back and they got a high risk, high reward player in Randy Gregory late in the draft. The front-seven should be good, but the secondary is going to have serious concerns with coverage and in run support. For a team that went 12-4 with as bad a defense as they had, it really has room to improve. 

Predictions: Cowboys win the division again and become a very tough out in the playoffs. Everyone kicks themselves for not drafting Joseph Randle after DMC gets hurts gently resting his head on a pillow. Dez Bryant talks at least 147 Courics of shit to opposing cornerbacks. 

Record Prediction: 11-5

Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: 10-6)

How many white people do you think Chip Kelly would have to put on his roster until everyone agreed that he was racist? Half? If he adds a white running back would it do it? And is it horrible to say that I really want to see the Eagles final 53-man roster composed entirely of white guys? It’d make for good television, mostly to see how Skip Bayless would cover the topic with a level head. L.O.L. Skip Bayless could be explaining to me on a walkie-talkie how I get out of a burning building, and I would still turn it off. Sorry for the yearly Skip bash, but I’ve always felt it’s my duty as an intellectual to spread the gospel of Skip being a tool.

Maybe this is how they like it, but it’s very hard to root for the Eagles because of how obnoxious their fans are, and it’s even more annoying that after I gave a hard look at their team, I think they are going to have a really good regular season. I’m still not convinced it holds up over the entire season and into the playoffs, but it’s going to be a really good offense. They still have a very good offensive line, Demarco Murray is going to be better in Chip’s system than McCoy was, and Sam Bradford, while not a running threat, is going to thrive in a system that requires quick, accurate reads. It’s more exhausting to play defense than offense, so we shouldn’t be surprised when more offenses start running hurry ups. Howwwevah, I’m going to throw this comparison out there. Chip Kelly is Tom Thibodeau. Well respected coaches who are considered gurus on their side of the ball, who excel in the regular season but crap out in the playoffs, and a big reason for that is because they run their players ragged. Less minutes/snaps you play, the less likely you are to get hurt. Chip is just more charming because he's a far bigger dirtbag.

While their special teams are bound to regress, the defense was solid against the run last year but terrible against the pass. They traded for Kiko Alonso, and signed Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond, but I don’t really have an opinion on how this pass defense is going to look with so many new pieces and a new DBs coach. Their safeties can’t be much worse than they’ve been the last few years though. 

Prediction: Sam Bradford averages over 270 passing yards a game. Demarco Murray averages over 5 yards per carry. Riley Cooper and Chip Kelly average over 6.5 RSPC (racial slurs per conversation). 

Record Prediction: 10-6

New York Giants (Last year: 6-10)

I had a pretty solid theory - that after having the most games lost to injury in back-to-back seasons, there was no way the Giants were going to continue with this rough run of injury luck. Ironically, that theory blew up like a firework in my hand. That unfortunate event strangely gave me the urge to go back and look up JPP’s wonderlic score. I did, and it just says “N/A”, which I assume means, “no answers”. I think he just sat there staring at the paper, dreaming of all the M-80s his signing bonus would buy him. However, it would have helped him if he was paying attention because this was question #14.

Question #14

Timmy uses his hands a lot for his profession. He does his job very well, but at this time he is without a signed contract. If he doesn’t blow up his hands, he is going to sign a contract for millions of dollars. What should Timmy do?

A)     Light off explosives in his hands.

B)     Not light off explosives in his hands.

It helps when you have weapons, but it looked like Eli really started to figure out the offense towards the end of the season. He has 5 legit weapons if Rashad Jennings can stay healthy (he won’t), and is Cruz can come back healthy, he will run wild with ODB shading coverage his way. Side note: I just thought of ODB and got so excited for the NFL to be back. Not many players can do that, but damn it’s good to have football back (Goodell can still fuck off). 

JPP was their best pass rusher and defender, and he will be sorely missed until they get that nub back on the field. Hopefully he can incorporate the nub into a new sack dance. Maybe do something like Jared Allen’s, only instead of blowing up some dynamite...well, you get it. The Giants have the best pair of cornerbacks in the division in DRC and Prince Amukamara, but the linebackers outside of the oft-injured Jon Beason are not good. I wish I knew more about this defense, but as you research New York teams, you slowly feel yourself turning into a prick. Like I tried looking at their defensive tackles for a second, but then all of a sudden I started talking like Andrew Dice Clay and I called my roommate a shitty cook. 

Anyways, Giants will be average. 

Predictions: I will eventually learn the names of at least half of this defense. Eli is going to have a pro-bowl season which will help him continue to move in on Peyton’s commercial territory. Tom Coughlin will age horribly.  

Record Prediction: 8-8

Washington Redskins (Last year: 4-12)

Since RG3 is going through a makeover to become a better quarterback, I think it’s appropriete that he chance his nickname. What you ask? Do I have a replacement? ONLY THE PERFECT REPLACEMENT. We will now on be calling Robert Griffen III “TD”. Obviously, that is not short for touchdown, because he is garbage. Instead, his full name is “The True Detective”. Just like the show, he came on strong in his first season, living up to the hype and bringing home numerous awards. Then the 2nd season came, and everything went to complete and utter shit! And we’re all like “This isn’t even the same player! Why is he running around like that? Why is there a plot about Vince Vaughn trying to have a baby????” Sorry, I lost my train of thought for a second, it’s a symptom you get from watching too many episodes of True Detective Season 2.

I feel bad for TD, I really do. It’s gotten pretty bad when you’re the most embarrassing endorser in a company, and the other guy got arrested for paying kids to sleep with him. And he got benched for Kirk Cousins! That would be like getting demoted at work and having the janitor brought in to do your job. This offense will be turnover prone which will negate any big plays they produce, which won’t be many. 

On defense we are sticking with the same NFC East theme as last season, and that is that all these teams all have pretty bad secondaries. Ryan Kerrigan is a phenomenal defensive end, and Terrence Knighton will be a good signing to stuff the run, but the middle of the field is going to be wide open against this team. Who wants to get on the under train? The train is #6.5 and it is leaving the station stocked with lobster, cocaine, and titties that look fake but aren’t. All aboooooard.

Predictions: Matt Jones severely eats into Alfred Morris’ workload. Colt McCoy starts at least 3 games this season and is still not good. Jay Gruden will be the first coach fired as everyone figures out he is the George W Bush of that family. 

Record Prediction: 4-12

AFC EAST

Miami Dolphins (Last year: 8-8)

Let’s start this division with a team I’ve already put a little action on with a 40-1 longshot to win the Super Bowl and 4-1 to win the AFC East. Also, this team preview took me extra long because I got caught up scrolling through pictures of Ryan Tannehill’s wife like the creepy troll. I’m serious, anytime you go down over 10+ image pages on Google, you should be put on a list. I’m so far deep that I’m getting random pictures of like minivans and Johnny Depp. I’ve heard her talked about, and now understand why; it took some serious willpower to keep writing and not stop to rub one out, which would have been weird since I’m writing this on an airplane.

As for the less successful Tannehill, I think he is going to lead their offense to the next level with another year under Bill Lazor’s system, a system that has been molded to his talents: Quick, accurate passes that require pre-snap intelligent reads. And no, he’s not intelligent because he’s white, he’s intelligent because he’s banging the chick I mentioned above. Seriously though, he’s extremely accurate and really athletic (don’t forget he played WR in college), and if he can ever develop a deep ball he’ll be tough to stop. At running back, Lamar Miller is just entering his prime after having a great season and an offseason where he’s shot up everyone’s fantasy draftboard. If Devante Parker and Cameron Jordan stay healthy, those are two big bodies to throw at, and that’s after PPR monster Jarvis Landry gets his steady dose of catches. The only thing that looks sub-par on this offense is the o-line, where they’re relying on the return of Brandon Albert to anchor an otherwise weak group, especially their guards. They closed the season as perhaps the worst line in football, which led to Tannehill getting his ass chased all over the field, but with a healthy Albert, and if they can lock down Evan Mathis in the next few weeks (they didn’t), the Dolphins have a chance to be one of the better offenses in a weaker AFC. And this is all before we get to the biggest offseason signing…

Peep the first set of quarterbacks that Ndumbkin Srrrruh and Miami’s defense get to face this year. Ready? Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota, and Brian Hoyer. Jesus Christ, four of those guys just got their starting gigs in the last few weeks! Suh and Wake are going to take 20-ton shits out of that crop of losers. Miami did something simple this offseason, they cut or traded everyone who wasn’t performing in their systems, but kept the core and coaching staffs intact to continue to grow. Except for Dallas Thomas. Listen, I know that YOU don’t know who the hell Dallas Thomas is, but hopefully by reading this, you will notice #63 on the Dolphins, a lumbering sack of meat, aimlessly looking for someone to block, only to induce the slightest of contact and fall over. He is penciled in as a starter at guard.

Predictions: Now living in Miami, Suh doesn’t get suspended since he no longer has built up anger from being stuck in Detroit. Devante Parker ends up winning some fantasy playoff games for his owners. The Dolphins get back to the playoffs for the first time since Ray Finkle missed that FG.

Record Prediction: 10-6

New England Patriots (Last year: 12-4)

To the Patriots organization, I understand why you are sticking to all your lies about getting caught cheating (again), but damnit, it’s still incredibly insulting to us all. When your locker room attendant is caught calling himself “The Deflator” in texts, and you tell us it’s because he is proud to be dropping a few pounds? The last time I heard a dieter telling lies like that was when Jared from Subway told me the kid he was showering with at the gym was his son. You sick bastard Jared, you sick, sick son of a bitch. Funny story, I once met Jared at a promotional event. I ordered a 6-inch, but he insisted that two 3-inches were better! Bam! (Yes, the low hanging fruit is the easiest to pick)

No segway from that. Obviously Brady is what makes the offense go, but The Golden Boy is getting old, and I’m not crazy to think that the health of the offensive line is as important to the Patriots success as Tom, because Tom moves like he has a turd in his pants he doesn’t want to drop out. Do you remember when Brady and Co. got their asses kicked by the Chiefs in Week 4 last year? Part of it was KC’s great pass rush, but the other part was NE still figuring out their o-line. They got it together, figured out their best lineup, and then stayed INCREDIBLY healthy for the rest of the year. In fact their entire team was incredibly healthy outside of losing Jerod Mayo.

The Patriots secondary is going to have a massive drop off from last year. Looking at Football Outsider’s stats, they charted how often #1 and #2 corners were thrown at, and how successful those throws were. They ranked Revis as the best #1 CB in the league, and Browner as the 7th best supporting corner. Surprise, surprise! Revis shuts down the entire side of a field. So the Patriots had the top cornerback duo in the league, yet was 12th in pass defense DVOA, and were also 20th in adjusted sack rate, which means they weren’t doing a great job of getting to the quarterback. They are bringing back a similar front-seven, and if they don’t get increased production from their pass rush, it could tough for the inexperienced corners. Another crazy stat – there were only 33 games where a lineman played 100% of their teams snaps, and NE (between Ninkovich and Jones) accounted for 16 of them. The defense is not going to play near their 19ppg they gave up in 2014, especially with improving offenses in their division. That said, it’s never smart to bet against Bill Belicheck.

Predictions: Tom Brady won’t miss more than 1 game because of suspension (missing zero!). Bill Belichick goes into the “negative fucks to give” category. Roger Goodell is fired after using all the billions of NFL profits to buy up every ticket for the new Will Smith movie “Concussion”.

Record Prediction: 10-6

Buffalo Bills (Last year: 9-7)

Have you ever been angry at some young hooligans who are messing with your beach chairs? So angry that you push one boy and punch him in the face? And then tell him that if he narcs you out to the police,  you will kill his entire family? If so, you have a lot in common with Bills assistant coach Aaron Kromer. It’s ironic that he would be so anti-narc, when he was the one who got busted red-handed after leaking anti-Cutler propaganda to the media as Jay’s offensive coordinator last year with the Bears. That incident turned out to be the 18th most embarrassing incident from Chicago’s season last year. Either way, he seems like a top notch motivator!

*Buffalo Bills Quarterback Tyrod Taylor returns to the sidelines after his fifth consecutive 3-and-out*

Taylor: “Wow, a QB draw on 3rd and 9?”

Kromer: “You better not tell Rex that I called that. I called that spider banana bullshit that Gruden is always talking about. Do you hear me? Nod or I will murder your entire family.”

Yep, they also brought in Rex Ryan, the Donald Trump of NFL head coaches. Sure he’ll come in and excite the base by saying all sorts of stupid shit, but everyone knows that they aren’t actually going to win anything. Or maybe he’s a Trump/Christie hybrid, because we shouldn’t ignore how fat he is, even with his lap band surgery. Another great motivator!

Rex: “Is this training camp too hard for you!? Do you wanna take the easy way out? No I’m asking you, do you want to? Because the easy way…is easier”  

I hope I’m not the only one who is shocked to recall that the Bills were 9-7 last year with the EJ Manual and Kyle Orton QB tag team. Their QB play and offensive line weren't improved much, and I see Lesean McCoy having a bit of a rough year, so it's going to be a team that posts a lot of over/unders in the high 30's/low 40's. I don’t know their entire cap situation, but shoot for the moon and trade for a QB. Offer two 1sts for Brees and make them say no. Even Cutler or Carson if those teams start the season rocky. The defense is too good to waste, and rather than go over the rest of this mediocre offense, let me just remind you of a text that newly acquired Richie Incognito sent to Jonathan Martin: "Hey, Jmart's sister is in town. Get the plastic sheets ready, she's a squirter."

Unlike Jonathan Martin's sister, this is a defense that springs no leaks. The front four is probably the best in the entire NFL, with solid LB play and a standout corner in Stephon Gilmore who leads last season's best pass defense in the league. They are going to be easier to run on than throw, as a majority of the LB core and secondary is more suited for coverage, especially both safeties. It's going to be an exciting group to watch.

Predictions: Rex Ryan will slowly being to wear out his welcome like he wears out his waistband. The Buffalo liquor store economy falls off a cliff with the departure of Kyle Orton. The Bills will quietly push for a playoff spot down the stretch.  

Record Prediction: 9-7

New York Jets (Last year: 4-12)

There isn’t a much better offseason comedy than the fact that Brandon Marshall moved in with Geno Smith to build chemistry. If the season starts going downhill after Geno comes back (and coming back from injury to a brand new offense, it very well could) we are going to need TV cameras in that house 24/7.

Geno: “Can you pass the salt, please?”

Brandon: “About as well as you pass a football.”

Marshall hurls the porcelain salt shaker, a wedding gift from CJ2K, against the wall, shattering it.

Geno: “Brandon, you ran the wrong route, coach even sa-“

Brandon: “You talked to coach?”

Geno: “Brandon sit down. I had this pot roast was cooking all day. Please.”

Brandon: “These potatoes are bland. They need fucking SALT! And you broke the salt shaker!”

Geno: “That was yo-“

Brandon: Excuse me?

Brandon pulls out his cell phone and speaks into it

B: “Siri, call my boo”

G: “Brandon, please don’t. We’ve moved past thi-“

B: “Jay, you there...””

How many Jay Cutler references can I make over the course of this preview? At least 15. People ask me all the time if I’m still on the Cutler bandwagon. I’m driving the fucking Cutler bandwagon “Thelma and Louise” style until I plummet to my death in a cavernous ravine.

Sadly I wrote the above about a day before Geno got clocked in the face by a teammate. So clearly Marshall didn't teach him everything, because somehow B Marsh doesn't get punched by his teammates, he only gets punched by his fiance...with knives. My spot on the Geno Smith bandwagon was up for sale, but couldn't find a taker and now I'm stuck riding this 72-seater with only myself and my Mom, a lifelong WVU fan, so it’s not really a seller’s market at the moment. Last fact, Brandon Marshall has played more games than any active player without a playoff appearance, and I’m not sure that changes this year.

As for the rest of the team, their defense should be improved and near the top half of the league. They had one of the top defensive lines in the NFL before realizing it was stocked with maniacs, and it will be interesting to see how new HC Todd Bowles lines them up once they are all healthy and out of jail. High as a kite, going 143 mph with a loaded semi-auto and a 12-year-old in the back seat? Shit if Goodell tried to give Brady 4 games, that means Sheldon gets life at Shawshank. Or it would if anything Goodell did made sense. Without Sheldon, if they primarily run a 3-4, I’m not sure where their pass rush comes from. Luckily their secondary should go from being one of the worst to one of the best with the reunion of Revis and Cromartie, and that should give second year safety Calvin Pryor more opportunity to make plays from his natural strong safety position.

Predictions: Geno never pays IK Enemkpali the money he owes him. Ryan Fitzpatrick tries to make dinner plans with Cromartie and Marshall, and is rebuffed. Jet's continue to struggle at life.

Record Prediction: 5-11

Next up: AFC West and NFC West

[godshorses]

Week 2

Did you guys hear there was a Ray Rice video? With all the great games coming up this week, it's only right that we start off by addressing the Baddell scandal. I would actually let him keep his job if he legally changed his name to that. And cut his salary by 1000x. Personally, I want to live in a police state soon where we film everything, so we'd have video of Jonathan Martin getting punked at the lunch tables, Aldon Smith asleep at the wheel, and I think we'd all love to know how much molly Wes Welker took, and in what fashion he took it in. I'm counting on you Google, don't let me down. Back to football, overreaction Week 1 is complete, and I'm not taking too much into the games where turnovers played a huge part, because I don't want to be sad about the Bears' season just yet. Although Kap seems ready to tuck away my hopes for the season in one of his 50,000 shoe boxes. Still, it's tough to know exactly where teams stand. Are the Vikings actually good on defense? Or was the Shaun Hill to Brian Quick connection not finely tuned yet? Is Jake Locker not stupid? Or is Kansas City's defense a complete mess? Are the Dolphins for real? Is RGIII really not going to run? Is Josh McCown...a fraud? Did Matt Stafford stop drinking beer and eating hot dong? I guess we'll have to wait and see...

Now to Week 2, I am hurting. I am having a gambling identity crisis. I go from having the Ravens as my favorite Week 1 bet, losing it, and then bailing on them to take the Steelers on Thursday. Needless to say, I was crushed. I am crushed. Let’s stay positive no matter how many mocking texts I am bombarded with.

Lions +2.5 @ Panthers

I missed on the Panthers, but they still managed to let Tampa Bay make it a game with a +3 turnover differential. They joined Buffalo, Tennessee, and San Fran as the teams with 3 or more turnovers, all winners. Turnovers make or break bets. With Detroits offensive line banged up, playing Carolina on the road is a completely different test than playing the Giants at home. If they can protect Stafford, the Lions should be able to easily win this game, I just have no idea if they’ll be able to.

Panthers -2.5

Falcons +5 @ Bengals

I was hoping after the Falcons beat the Saints at home, where Matt Ryan is exceptional, they would be 3 point dogs here. Maybe it will be bet down, but the Falcons are a different team on the road, with Matt Ryan leading them to 24-24 versus 37-10 at home. Those records were back when the Falcons were an elite team, which I no longer think they are, partly due to drafting and partly due to injuries. Jake Matthews is out, so they are starting Gabe Carimi at LT, a player so bad he couldn’t stay on the offensive line challenged Bears and Bucs.

Bengals -5

Dolphins -1 @ Bills

I like the under 42.5 for this game. The Dolphins defense looked well rounded and I just think both teams will play conservaitve, particularly the Bills who will be fine running the ball and punting, as long as they avoid turnovers. As a little bit of a hedge, I like the Dolphins -1, because their new offense looks to be clicking so far, especially their offensive line which looks night and day better, led by Brandon Albert who shut out Chandler Jones last week.

*Dolphins -1

Rams +6 @ Bucs

I will not jump ship on the Bucs like I did the Ravens. I won’t overreact to the Josh McCown looking like…Josh McCown. I still have faith in this defense, especially when they are playing possibly the worst team in the NFl.

Bucs -6

Jaguars +6 @ Redskins

The Jaguars defense should be good enough to keep it close against an immobile RGIII, and the Jag’s offense might even be able to do enough to pull an upset here. I haven’t seen enough out of Gruden’s offense and whether RGIII can use the weapons he has, which means they will probably put up 40 points.

Jags +6

Cowboys +3.5

The Cowboys front seven actually didn’t look terrible, but unfortunately everyone else did, mostly Romo, who played about as bad a game as I’ve ever seen him play. It’s possible that his back is bothering him, but I’m going to bet on a bounce back game for this offense. The Titans are good, but shutting down the Chiefs when they decide not to give the ball to Jamaal Charles isn’t exactly impressive.

Cowboys +3.5

Cardinals -2 @ Giants

This has all the makings of an overreaction trap game, but it’s so hard to bet on this Giants offense that has looked absolutely terrible. Cardinals are on a short week, flying east for the early Sunday game, and I still can’t bet against them. Giants lack of a pass rush will hurt them against Palmer, who is still okay as long as he doesn’t have to move much. Love the under 42.5.

Cards -2

Patriots -6 @ Vikings

Hey AP, just because the Bible said it’s okay, and just because you use the term “whoopin” doesn’t change the fact that you beat your child, who is FOUR FUCKING YEARS OLD. Thank God I’m not in the group that finds this okay or normal. His son’s statement to the police makes it very clear that his son is completely terrified of him, so well done, sir. Welcome to 2014 AP, enjoy getting a 4-6 game suspension soon.

Vikings +6

Saints -6.5 @ Browns

I don’t know what to make of this Browns offense, but I don’t like the Saints to blow teams out on the road, so I’ll take the points. Now that I’ve typed that out, I fully expect the Saints to blow them out on the road.

Saints -6.5

Seahawks -6 @ Chargers

I just want to root against Richard Sherman, so hopefully Rivers wasn’t lying when he said he wouldn’t avoid his side of the field.

Chargers +6

Texans -2.5 @ Raiders

Okay, made I’ll take back what I said about J.J. Watt and any non-QB not being worth the type of money he got, because it sounds like he almost single handedly destroyed the Redskins last week. Carr is going to have trouble with his throwing motion when Watt is elbow deep in his ass, and as long as the Texans are healthy on offense they should be able to cover this spread.

Texans -2.5

Jets +8 @ Packers

I’ve officially had enough of the Aaron Rodgers commercials. Just because he’s been playing straight his entire life doesn’t mean he can act on camera. I don’t care if he’s dating the insanely hot Olivia Munn, I will never accept the fact that Rodger isn’t a virgin. The only sex he’ll be having on Sunday is going to be from the punishing that he dishes out to the Jets secondary, which is made worse by their lack of a pass rush. Will the Packers defense step up in order to cover the 8 points? Geno Smith thinks so. Good team to tease down to -2.

Packers -8

Chiefs +12.5 @ Broncos

Remember how bad Alex Smith was, and then when Harbaugh came in and everyone credited his new success to the coach, when really it was the fact that they drafted a bunch of stud linemen? Well, Smith is back to having a shitty offensive line, and I know it’s a lot of points, but Peyton should pick apart this secondary. Unless Charles goes nuts, I see this game getting ugly.

Broncos -12.5

Bears +7 @ Niners

BREAKING NEWS! I just got the exclusive transcript from a call between Roger Goodell and Jay Cutler that took place yesterday:

Jay: Rodge, I heard people are calling on you to resign.

Roger: Hey Jay, guess what?

Jay: What?

Roger: I don’t fuckin’ care. Saw your 4th quarter interception. It was pretty brutal.

Jay: I don’t fuckin’ care.

Roger: I don’t care.

Jay: Don’t care.

It went on like this, for 10 minutes.  

Niners -7.

Eagles +3 @ Colts

I was impressed how the Colts offensive line stood up against the Broncos on the road, and if they continue to play like that, while giving snaps to Ahman Bradshaw over Trent Richardson, this offense could really be lethal. The Nick Foles regression season is in full swing, so while I don’t love this bet…I have to take a side.

Colts -3