Welcome my friends, to the Zeh’s 2015 NFL Preview. The perfect reading material for toilet time, even if you want sit down Larry David style to have a nice relaxing pee, I’m here for you. I’ll be posting 2 division previews at a time, with the last one Wednesday accompanied by a few season bets and props before things kickoff on Thursday night. As you may or may not know, I’ll be posting a weekly picks column during the year, with 5 games highlighted as my “Hilton 5” favorites, and the difference this year is that I’m actually entered into the Hilton Supercontest and will be making the picks on behalf of myself and a few friends. The team name is Vancho, and I’ll post a link to track how I’m doing once the season gets started. These picks are all for fun, so don’t follow them unless you enjoy MAKING SHITLOADS OF MONEY FOR DOING NOTHING. No but seriously don’t gamble it’s bad.
Throughout the preview I’ll occasionally have parentheses where there have been changes since the time of writing because of how much I jump around before posting these. The majority of the research I’ve done comes from a few sources: Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, FiveThirthyEight, and Stephen A. Smith’s twitter account. Now here we gooooooo!!!!
Going from Demarco Murray to Joseph Randle is like going from Stephen Colbert to Larry Wilmore. Huge downgrade from an MVP performer to “Who the hell is that guy? Oh, I remember him, he was okay in small doses, but he’s not ready to carry the load”. And while yes, Joseph Randle still has that dynamite offensive-line, the “Daily Show” lead-in if you will, you just don’t know what he is going to do with it. The good news for Cowboys fans is, contrary to my analogy, there’s no way Joseph Randle will be as bad as Larry Wilmore. Larry Wilmore wouldn’t make me crack a smile while high on laughing gas.
Other than Demarco, they didn’t lose a starter from an offense that was 4th in the league and an offensive line is regarded by most as the best in the league, and without a doubt the best run blockers. Tony Romo had the best QBR in the league (with a bad back) and Dez didn’t lose his mind, so the season was a huge success. I was confident that if they had hung on against GB, they would have gone into Seattle and won for the second time last season, and given NE a good game in the Super Bowl. The problem is they probably can’t rely on being the second healthiest offense in football again.
For all the health they had on offense, they were the 5th most unhealthy defense, and that hasn’t changed with losing Orlando Scandrick for the season already this preseason. I know it’s silly, but I really do feel a bond with a player who gets popped for doing molly in Mexico. I find myself wondering stupid things like what type of music he listens to or what type of gum he chews. Either way, get well soon Orlando. Last year the defense was 25th in yards per play allowed and 15th in ppg allowed, so they weren’t good, and it helped a lot that their offense was 1st in the league at time of possession. They added a few weapons on defense, and not just the one’s that Greg Hardy brought with him from Carolina. Sean Lee is back and they got a high risk, high reward player in Randy Gregory late in the draft. The front-seven should be good, but the secondary is going to have serious concerns with coverage and in run support. For a team that went 12-4 with as bad a defense as they had, it really has room to improve.
Predictions: Cowboys win the division again and become a very tough out in the playoffs. Everyone kicks themselves for not drafting Joseph Randle after DMC gets hurts gently resting his head on a pillow. Dez Bryant talks at least 147 Courics of shit to opposing cornerbacks.
Philadelphia Eagles (Last year: 10-6)
How many white people do you think Chip Kelly would have to put on his roster until everyone agreed that he was racist? Half? If he adds a white running back would it do it? And is it horrible to say that I really want to see the Eagles final 53-man roster composed entirely of white guys? It’d make for good television, mostly to see how Skip Bayless would cover the topic with a level head. L.O.L. Skip Bayless could be explaining to me on a walkie-talkie how I get out of a burning building, and I would still turn it off. Sorry for the yearly Skip bash, but I’ve always felt it’s my duty as an intellectual to spread the gospel of Skip being a tool.
Maybe this is how they like it, but it’s very hard to root for the Eagles because of how obnoxious their fans are, and it’s even more annoying that after I gave a hard look at their team, I think they are going to have a really good regular season. I’m still not convinced it holds up over the entire season and into the playoffs, but it’s going to be a really good offense. They still have a very good offensive line, Demarco Murray is going to be better in Chip’s system than McCoy was, and Sam Bradford, while not a running threat, is going to thrive in a system that requires quick, accurate reads. It’s more exhausting to play defense than offense, so we shouldn’t be surprised when more offenses start running hurry ups. Howwwevah, I’m going to throw this comparison out there. Chip Kelly is Tom Thibodeau. Well respected coaches who are considered gurus on their side of the ball, who excel in the regular season but crap out in the playoffs, and a big reason for that is because they run their players ragged. Less minutes/snaps you play, the less likely you are to get hurt. Chip is just more charming because he's a far bigger dirtbag.
While their special teams are bound to regress, the defense was solid against the run last year but terrible against the pass. They traded for Kiko Alonso, and signed Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond, but I don’t really have an opinion on how this pass defense is going to look with so many new pieces and a new DBs coach. Their safeties can’t be much worse than they’ve been the last few years though.
Prediction: Sam Bradford averages over 270 passing yards a game. Demarco Murray averages over 5 yards per carry. Riley Cooper and Chip Kelly average over 6.5 RSPC (racial slurs per conversation).
New York Giants (Last year: 6-10)
I had a pretty solid theory - that after having the most games lost to injury in back-to-back seasons, there was no way the Giants were going to continue with this rough run of injury luck. Ironically, that theory blew up like a firework in my hand. That unfortunate event strangely gave me the urge to go back and look up JPP’s wonderlic score. I did, and it just says “N/A”, which I assume means, “no answers”. I think he just sat there staring at the paper, dreaming of all the M-80s his signing bonus would buy him. However, it would have helped him if he was paying attention because this was question #14.
Timmy uses his hands a lot for his profession. He does his job very well, but at this time he is without a signed contract. If he doesn’t blow up his hands, he is going to sign a contract for millions of dollars. What should Timmy do?
A) Light off explosives in his hands.
B) Not light off explosives in his hands.
It helps when you have weapons, but it looked like Eli really started to figure out the offense towards the end of the season. He has 5 legit weapons if Rashad Jennings can stay healthy (he won’t), and is Cruz can come back healthy, he will run wild with ODB shading coverage his way. Side note: I just thought of ODB and got so excited for the NFL to be back. Not many players can do that, but damn it’s good to have football back (Goodell can still fuck off).
JPP was their best pass rusher and defender, and he will be sorely missed until they get that nub back on the field. Hopefully he can incorporate the nub into a new sack dance. Maybe do something like Jared Allen’s, only instead of blowing up some dynamite...well, you get it. The Giants have the best pair of cornerbacks in the division in DRC and Prince Amukamara, but the linebackers outside of the oft-injured Jon Beason are not good. I wish I knew more about this defense, but as you research New York teams, you slowly feel yourself turning into a prick. Like I tried looking at their defensive tackles for a second, but then all of a sudden I started talking like Andrew Dice Clay and I called my roommate a shitty cook.
Anyways, Giants will be average.
Predictions: I will eventually learn the names of at least half of this defense. Eli is going to have a pro-bowl season which will help him continue to move in on Peyton’s commercial territory. Tom Coughlin will age horribly.
Washington Redskins (Last year: 4-12)
Since RG3 is going through a makeover to become a better quarterback, I think it’s appropriete that he chance his nickname. What you ask? Do I have a replacement? ONLY THE PERFECT REPLACEMENT. We will now on be calling Robert Griffen III “TD”. Obviously, that is not short for touchdown, because he is garbage. Instead, his full name is “The True Detective”. Just like the show, he came on strong in his first season, living up to the hype and bringing home numerous awards. Then the 2nd season came, and everything went to complete and utter shit! And we’re all like “This isn’t even the same player! Why is he running around like that? Why is there a plot about Vince Vaughn trying to have a baby????” Sorry, I lost my train of thought for a second, it’s a symptom you get from watching too many episodes of True Detective Season 2.
I feel bad for TD, I really do. It’s gotten pretty bad when you’re the most embarrassing endorser in a company, and the other guy got arrested for paying kids to sleep with him. And he got benched for Kirk Cousins! That would be like getting demoted at work and having the janitor brought in to do your job. This offense will be turnover prone which will negate any big plays they produce, which won’t be many.
On defense we are sticking with the same NFC East theme as last season, and that is that all these teams all have pretty bad secondaries. Ryan Kerrigan is a phenomenal defensive end, and Terrence Knighton will be a good signing to stuff the run, but the middle of the field is going to be wide open against this team. Who wants to get on the under train? The train is #6.5 and it is leaving the station stocked with lobster, cocaine, and titties that look fake but aren’t. All aboooooard.
Predictions: Matt Jones severely eats into Alfred Morris’ workload. Colt McCoy starts at least 3 games this season and is still not good. Jay Gruden will be the first coach fired as everyone figures out he is the George W Bush of that family.
Miami Dolphins (Last year: 8-8)
Let’s start this division with a team I’ve already put a little action on with a 40-1 longshot to win the Super Bowl and 4-1 to win the AFC East. Also, this team preview took me extra long because I got caught up scrolling through pictures of Ryan Tannehill’s wife like the creepy troll. I’m serious, anytime you go down over 10+ image pages on Google, you should be put on a list. I’m so far deep that I’m getting random pictures of like minivans and Johnny Depp. I’ve heard her talked about, and now understand why; it took some serious willpower to keep writing and not stop to rub one out, which would have been weird since I’m writing this on an airplane.
As for the less successful Tannehill, I think he is going to lead their offense to the next level with another year under Bill Lazor’s system, a system that has been molded to his talents: Quick, accurate passes that require pre-snap intelligent reads. And no, he’s not intelligent because he’s white, he’s intelligent because he’s banging the chick I mentioned above. Seriously though, he’s extremely accurate and really athletic (don’t forget he played WR in college), and if he can ever develop a deep ball he’ll be tough to stop. At running back, Lamar Miller is just entering his prime after having a great season and an offseason where he’s shot up everyone’s fantasy draftboard. If Devante Parker and Cameron Jordan stay healthy, those are two big bodies to throw at, and that’s after PPR monster Jarvis Landry gets his steady dose of catches. The only thing that looks sub-par on this offense is the o-line, where they’re relying on the return of Brandon Albert to anchor an otherwise weak group, especially their guards. They closed the season as perhaps the worst line in football, which led to Tannehill getting his ass chased all over the field, but with a healthy Albert, and if they can lock down Evan Mathis in the next few weeks (they didn’t), the Dolphins have a chance to be one of the better offenses in a weaker AFC. And this is all before we get to the biggest offseason signing…
Peep the first set of quarterbacks that Ndumbkin Srrrruh and Miami’s defense get to face this year. Ready? Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota, and Brian Hoyer. Jesus Christ, four of those guys just got their starting gigs in the last few weeks! Suh and Wake are going to take 20-ton shits out of that crop of losers. Miami did something simple this offseason, they cut or traded everyone who wasn’t performing in their systems, but kept the core and coaching staffs intact to continue to grow. Except for Dallas Thomas. Listen, I know that YOU don’t know who the hell Dallas Thomas is, but hopefully by reading this, you will notice #63 on the Dolphins, a lumbering sack of meat, aimlessly looking for someone to block, only to induce the slightest of contact and fall over. He is penciled in as a starter at guard.
Predictions: Now living in Miami, Suh doesn’t get suspended since he no longer has built up anger from being stuck in Detroit. Devante Parker ends up winning some fantasy playoff games for his owners. The Dolphins get back to the playoffs for the first time since Ray Finkle missed that FG.
New England Patriots (Last year: 12-4)
To the Patriots organization, I understand why you are sticking to all your lies about getting caught cheating (again), but damnit, it’s still incredibly insulting to us all. When your locker room attendant is caught calling himself “The Deflator” in texts, and you tell us it’s because he is proud to be dropping a few pounds? The last time I heard a dieter telling lies like that was when Jared from Subway told me the kid he was showering with at the gym was his son. You sick bastard Jared, you sick, sick son of a bitch. Funny story, I once met Jared at a promotional event. I ordered a 6-inch, but he insisted that two 3-inches were better! Bam! (Yes, the low hanging fruit is the easiest to pick)
No segway from that. Obviously Brady is what makes the offense go, but The Golden Boy is getting old, and I’m not crazy to think that the health of the offensive line is as important to the Patriots success as Tom, because Tom moves like he has a turd in his pants he doesn’t want to drop out. Do you remember when Brady and Co. got their asses kicked by the Chiefs in Week 4 last year? Part of it was KC’s great pass rush, but the other part was NE still figuring out their o-line. They got it together, figured out their best lineup, and then stayed INCREDIBLY healthy for the rest of the year. In fact their entire team was incredibly healthy outside of losing Jerod Mayo.
The Patriots secondary is going to have a massive drop off from last year. Looking at Football Outsider’s stats, they charted how often #1 and #2 corners were thrown at, and how successful those throws were. They ranked Revis as the best #1 CB in the league, and Browner as the 7th best supporting corner. Surprise, surprise! Revis shuts down the entire side of a field. So the Patriots had the top cornerback duo in the league, yet was 12th in pass defense DVOA, and were also 20th in adjusted sack rate, which means they weren’t doing a great job of getting to the quarterback. They are bringing back a similar front-seven, and if they don’t get increased production from their pass rush, it could tough for the inexperienced corners. Another crazy stat – there were only 33 games where a lineman played 100% of their teams snaps, and NE (between Ninkovich and Jones) accounted for 16 of them. The defense is not going to play near their 19ppg they gave up in 2014, especially with improving offenses in their division. That said, it’s never smart to bet against Bill Belicheck.
Predictions: Tom Brady won’t miss more than 1 game because of suspension (missing zero!). Bill Belichick goes into the “negative fucks to give” category. Roger Goodell is fired after using all the billions of NFL profits to buy up every ticket for the new Will Smith movie “Concussion”.
Buffalo Bills (Last year: 9-7)
Have you ever been angry at some young hooligans who are messing with your beach chairs? So angry that you push one boy and punch him in the face? And then tell him that if he narcs you out to the police, you will kill his entire family? If so, you have a lot in common with Bills assistant coach Aaron Kromer. It’s ironic that he would be so anti-narc, when he was the one who got busted red-handed after leaking anti-Cutler propaganda to the media as Jay’s offensive coordinator last year with the Bears. That incident turned out to be the 18th most embarrassing incident from Chicago’s season last year. Either way, he seems like a top notch motivator!
*Buffalo Bills Quarterback Tyrod Taylor returns to the sidelines after his fifth consecutive 3-and-out*
Taylor: “Wow, a QB draw on 3rd and 9?”
Kromer: “You better not tell Rex that I called that. I called that spider banana bullshit that Gruden is always talking about. Do you hear me? Nod or I will murder your entire family.”
Yep, they also brought in Rex Ryan, the Donald Trump of NFL head coaches. Sure he’ll come in and excite the base by saying all sorts of stupid shit, but everyone knows that they aren’t actually going to win anything. Or maybe he’s a Trump/Christie hybrid, because we shouldn’t ignore how fat he is, even with his lap band surgery. Another great motivator!
Rex: “Is this training camp too hard for you!? Do you wanna take the easy way out? No I’m asking you, do you want to? Because the easy way…is easier”
I hope I’m not the only one who is shocked to recall that the Bills were 9-7 last year with the EJ Manual and Kyle Orton QB tag team. Their QB play and offensive line weren't improved much, and I see Lesean McCoy having a bit of a rough year, so it's going to be a team that posts a lot of over/unders in the high 30's/low 40's. I don’t know their entire cap situation, but shoot for the moon and trade for a QB. Offer two 1sts for Brees and make them say no. Even Cutler or Carson if those teams start the season rocky. The defense is too good to waste, and rather than go over the rest of this mediocre offense, let me just remind you of a text that newly acquired Richie Incognito sent to Jonathan Martin: "Hey, Jmart's sister is in town. Get the plastic sheets ready, she's a squirter."
Unlike Jonathan Martin's sister, this is a defense that springs no leaks. The front four is probably the best in the entire NFL, with solid LB play and a standout corner in Stephon Gilmore who leads last season's best pass defense in the league. They are going to be easier to run on than throw, as a majority of the LB core and secondary is more suited for coverage, especially both safeties. It's going to be an exciting group to watch.
Predictions: Rex Ryan will slowly being to wear out his welcome like he wears out his waistband. The Buffalo liquor store economy falls off a cliff with the departure of Kyle Orton. The Bills will quietly push for a playoff spot down the stretch.
New York Jets (Last year: 4-12)
There isn’t a much better offseason comedy than the fact that Brandon Marshall moved in with Geno Smith to build chemistry. If the season starts going downhill after Geno comes back (and coming back from injury to a brand new offense, it very well could) we are going to need TV cameras in that house 24/7.
Geno: “Can you pass the salt, please?”
Brandon: “About as well as you pass a football.”
Marshall hurls the porcelain salt shaker, a wedding gift from CJ2K, against the wall, shattering it.
Geno: “Brandon, you ran the wrong route, coach even sa-“
Brandon: “You talked to coach?”
Geno: “Brandon sit down. I had this pot roast was cooking all day. Please.”
Brandon: “These potatoes are bland. They need fucking SALT! And you broke the salt shaker!”
Brandon pulls out his cell phone and speaks into it
G: “Brandon, please don’t. We’ve moved past thi-“
How many Jay Cutler references can I make over the course of this preview? At least 15. People ask me all the time if I’m still on the Cutler bandwagon. I’m driving the fucking Cutler bandwagon “Thelma and Louise” style until I plummet to my death in a cavernous ravine.
Sadly I wrote the above about a day before Geno got clocked in the face by a teammate. So clearly Marshall didn't teach him everything, because somehow B Marsh doesn't get punched by his teammates, he only gets punched by his fiance...with knives. My spot on the Geno Smith bandwagon was up for sale, but couldn't find a taker and now I'm stuck riding this 72-seater with only myself and my Mom, a lifelong WVU fan, so it’s not really a seller’s market at the moment. Last fact, Brandon Marshall has played more games than any active player without a playoff appearance, and I’m not sure that changes this year.
As for the rest of the team, their defense should be improved and near the top half of the league. They had one of the top defensive lines in the NFL before realizing it was stocked with maniacs, and it will be interesting to see how new HC Todd Bowles lines them up once they are all healthy and out of jail. High as a kite, going 143 mph with a loaded semi-auto and a 12-year-old in the back seat? Shit if Goodell tried to give Brady 4 games, that means Sheldon gets life at Shawshank. Or it would if anything Goodell did made sense. Without Sheldon, if they primarily run a 3-4, I’m not sure where their pass rush comes from. Luckily their secondary should go from being one of the worst to one of the best with the reunion of Revis and Cromartie, and that should give second year safety Calvin Pryor more opportunity to make plays from his natural strong safety position.
Predictions: Geno never pays IK Enemkpali the money he owes him. Ryan Fitzpatrick tries to make dinner plans with Cromartie and Marshall, and is rebuffed. Jet's continue to struggle at life.
Next up: AFC West and NFC West