a collection of thoughts supporting this:
โBelialโ at the end of CHOT is very obviously written to be like his depiction in GOTSM. Thereโs quite a bit of repetition in language surrounding him, plus Jem identifies them as the same, to the point I imagine CC had GOTSM on hand as she wrote CHOT to ensure they matched
(sidenote: interesting that heโs described at being shaped from clay since thatโs how Adam and Lilith were created, aka the origins of humanity & being of the earth โ doesnโt really apply to fallen angels you would think)
Belial in TLBOTW (2020) however does NOT match Belial in GOTSM (2018) & CHOT (2023). While itโs a fairly brief appearance, Sammuel puts emphasis on Belial being like he always is
Hereโs Jamesโ description of meeting Belial the first time in CHOG for comparison (exhibit c);
Belialโs death and supposed replacement does not match with the lore established around Lilith and Sammael. Especially since Belial was killed by being stabbed thrice by Cortana, a man made sword which supposedly has a feather from Michaelโs wing in the hilt. Comparatively, Sammael was killed after being hunted down by Michael himself & stabbed with Glorious and Lilith was destroyed by the Mark of Cain, which derives its power from God directly.
Only Jem and Sister Emilia have encountered him, and both times โBelialโ uses Jemโs love from the Herondales. In CHOT itโs to pass along the message โheโ is no longer interested in Tessaโs children & descendants and in GOTSM itโs to send Jem to find the lost Herondales (which given the circumstances of everything was definitely planned). Guess who are the main characters of TWP.
Jemโs hunt for the lost Herondales directly leading to the survival of the line + being told that Tessaโs descendants are ordinary mortals now leading to them forgetting their ancestry & lacking any concernment for what that might mean & how it should influence their actions. and now we have this new Ash snippet (exhibit d);
and an arc reader claims that it would be โillogical pathโ for Blackstairs to think about having kids in TLKOF specifically, which could just be because itโs super crazy busy but could also be because a direct descendant of a Prince of Hell having seven kids might have been a bad idea that should not be continued
New Belial claiming a bunch of titles & epithets that have never (as far I remember) been applied to Old Belial even vaguely. If anything they apply to Lucifer? Since heโs the oldest (according to Simon) & he refers to himself as a commander (vs other POH like Azazal, Asmodeus & Sammael being called lieutenant or generals)
The whole thing kinda reeks of another demon taking advantage of Belial being sent to the void for the foreseeable future to assume his identity & use his relationship to the Herondales for their own gains. Especially if it is a more powerful demon like Lucifer who could prevent Belial from ever returning to this realm.
The scene being separated into a coda โ bringing extra attention to it โ despite the fact nothing happens (on the surface)
also just this quote (exhibit f:)
combined with the fact Jem has never seemed to be suspicious of the fact Belial wanted him to find Roland & Aurelineโs familyโฆ like he would be very easy to turn into a pawn unfortunately. Genuinely why does Kit know barely any Shadowhunters but every single living descendant of Belial (& one non living ๐ญ) is very close to himโฆ. Did it ever occur to anyone that might be a bad idea given the source of this information lmao
