The Mare Hunter

Horse racing notes. And more.

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NFL Playoff Picks For The Hell Of It

Doing this reminded me that I had made some for the hell of it picks on Thanksgiving. Turned out 4-2 that day. I should get a show on the radio. Hard to fathom picking the 49ers that day. But it was a different time.

NE (-7) 

NE/BAL under 47.5

Carolina (+11.5)

CAR/SEA under 40

Green Bay (-6)

DAL/GB over 52.5

Denver (7)

IND/DEN over 54

I really don't think these are going to be good games.

[jet4k-blog]

New Year's Day Handicapping Recap

I was way off in my thinking on how that maiden race discussed in my prior post would unfold. Thankfully that race was merely the first leg of an attempted double and not part of the early Pick 4, which concluded the race prior. As I hit that one for a buck, paying $171.60.

A fine start to the year, and a fair payout considering the chalkiness of the sequence. Huzzah for big fields! Also for keeping the ticket to a trim $18, so the ROI was quite nice.

Back to work tomorrow, and will be spending some time in the office on Saturday as well, but hoping to find time to play a few races that day. Gulfstream has some stakes going, but I think the latter half of the Tampa card looks like it ought to offer better value. So I will be looking that way.

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Gulfstream 6th Race - New Year's Day

The sixth race on New Year's Day at Gulfstream is a cool turf route for newly minted three year olds. Just some notes on some of the cast:

PINE NEEDLES draws the rail for her debut. By Giant's Causeway out of Meridiana, a home-bred for Jon and Sarah Kelly, Christophe Clement is used to training Meridiana's progeny including full sibling Center Divider, an earner of over $340,000. This is a horse to watch, but one that we will hope simply makes for a better price on our eventual selection. None of the siblings have won first time out.

As for the sibling angle, ENGLISH SUNSET is a full to last year's Travers Stakes winner V.E. Day. 

Bill Mott has a runner in here who could find her price rising from the 3-1 that the morning line offers after disappointing in her second start at Aqueduct on November 9. That is SEEKING, who got tied up a little bit in traffic and had no pace to run at that day. 

And Chad Brown has one in BISHOP'S POND who did not impress the first time and we're going to just cross our fingers and ignore here.

As much as I hate to do it, I think my play is likely to be Todd Pletcher's ALL TOO MANY. A modest pedigree for this one compared to some of the others, and just a muddy sprint at Aqueduct on the resume, I nevertheless see her as either the lone speed in here, or still part of a small contingent up front with the others nowhere near as threatening. TO START, a debuter by Warrior's Reward, may screw this up and coerce the filly into an unwise duel, but after that I think it is pretty smooth sailing.

And so, with sufficient reason to doubt the conditions here for the bigger name horses, yet reason also to think that the biggest name trainer might get overlooked in this spot, I will gladly put down some money at something resembling the 6-1 on the morning line.

Clement's other entrant, NATIVE STRIKE, and the Mott filly are the others I will use in multi-race wagers.

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Prepping for the New Year

It has been slow-going on the thoroughbred front for me since the Breeders' Cup. I didn't know I would take a breather after that, but it's worked out that way. And this is a good time to go on burnout if you're gonna do it. There hasn't been much that was compelling during this time. Shared Belief getting it done in the Malibu was nice though.

I have a few plays for today at Gulfstream, but otherwise am focused on 2015. I have moved on to handicapping the New Year's card there, and am excited by what looks like some good value available in the cheap n2L claimer that kicks things off that day. So, getting excited about that race hopefully means I have the batteries recharged and I am ready to get back into things.

As for what's left of 2014, I am most interested to see how THEROS runs in the 8th today for Kiaran McLaughlin. And whether he goes at anything near the 15-1 handed out on the morning line. The horse will need to have gotten much faster during his layoff, but moving from early in his 3yo campaign to the end of it, he may well have done so. 

[jet4k-blog]

As If The Astros Are Even Thinking About This

Via the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors, we learn that Houston newspaper fella Evan Drellich puts out the idea that the Astros might find it difficult to trade Dexter Fowler because he is bros with George Springer and therefore his presence on the team could help Springer feel happy and reach his potential.

There is no point to pondering such a thing with the Astros. The front office is on a mission to demonstrate that human factors are negligible. I generally am of the mind that winning makes everything good the vast majority of the time, but the Astros people take it to extremes. 

And there is a noticeable lack of any quotes from Jeff Luhnow along the lines of Fowler's importance as a mentor for Springer. Luhnow's only quote in the article merely confirms that the Astros have a few guys to play center.

Bah. Pull your head out of your ass, Drellich.

On a brighter note for this California League veteran, the Top Ten Prospects list put out by Baseball America for the Astros contains a handful of guys who should be starting out at Lancaster. I was afraid maybe their best guys were already moving past there, but things are still looking up. Unfortunately, Lancaster will not be spending much time on the road in these parts for the first couple months of the season.

Lists for other California League parent clubs will be coming up soon. Fingers crossed.

How's that for getting away from the subject matter?

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Thanksgiving NFL Picks For The Hell Of It

Lions -7; Over 47.5

Eagles +3; Over 56

49ers -1.5; Under 40

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This doesn't mean as much without getting to see the race, but watching this one from October 11 at Santa Anita myself in preparation for some Thanksgiving Del Mar action, I cannot believe that the 4 on the inside, ALFA BIRD, lost this photo. Looked like a clear winner, even though I knew going in that he did not win. Still could not believe it.

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BREAKING NEWS: There Is A Major League Scouting Bureau

It's the worst time of year. Baseball is gone and not close to coming back, and there is a post-Breeders' Cup burnout/layoff on the racing scene for me personally. I am hoping to pick things back up there soon with the open of the Championship meet at Gulfstream Park and some relatively low takeout options at Tampa Bay Downs. But until then, there is not much to say. So I turn to useless news, like that Bill Bavasi has been named Director of the Major League Scouting Bureau.

Such a thing existing is strange to me. I recall hearing about the NHL's Central Scouting Bureau which it seemed many or most teams relied on to a great extent even through the 1980s according to some things I read in the 1990s, particularly in regard to the scouting of Russian players.

I have found it funny how, when the stakes in professional sports were much lower, things like this would be left to come sort of league-controlled entity such that each team relied on exactly the same information and sought no advantage.

Baseball's scouting history has always seemed much different from that, with teams sending guys out to the farms across the country looking for strapping young men who could smack a ball or throw one. 

The linked article at Baseball America gives some hints at what the MLSB might provide that would be useful to clubs, like organization of international showcase events. But still, it's just weird.

[jet4k-blog]

Trying My Hand At Tournament Handicapping

This Saturday is the fourth and final edition of the Players' Tournament put on by...I don't know...CalRacing.com maybe? They're name is in front of things at the tournament page, so that seems a decent bet. I have been aware of these but the first three did not fall on Saturdays when I could participate. Even getting to play this one required a light amount of schedule adjusting.

The tournaments have a good structure as far as I am concerned, in that it's just $50 to play, with $20 going to the tournament pot and $30 in live wagering funds to be applied in five $2 Win-Place-Show bets on any five daytime races in California (so Golden Gate Fields and Del Mar).

A couple things keep me from trying very hard at getting into handicapping tournaments. The first is the weird incentives that frequently seem to make stabbing at bombs a good strategy, and the second is the cost. Most tournaments I am aware of being run by a couple organizations are a couple hundred bucks to play at a time, which is just not something I want to invest in something so screwy.

Twinspires runs cheap satellites during the week, but I work and I also don't do business with Churchill Downs, Inc.

My strategy for this weekend is to play races with the largest fields, and to take a little more risk trying to land longshots. The 20-1 horse that I don't think is impossible but still probably isn't quite right at 20-1, I may close my eyes and hope. We'll see. 

But with these WPS bets, I suppose a lot of people will just go for the longest shot on the board thinking that anybody can finish third and they'll get a good Show payout. But that won't be enough to defeat the people hitting good priced winners is my supposition.

Looking at the entries for Saturday, I think I'll just play the last two races at Golden Gate and the last three at Del Mar. Should make for some quick action, with those races running in the same window of time essentially. I won't have too much time to agonize over selections. 

Even though some tournament cappers could likely point out how sub-optimal my strategy is, or that I am not thinking deeply enough about my strategy, right now I am in full optimism mode. One time, baby!

[jet4k-blog]

An Unfortunate Pair

While sitting in the grandstands Friday at the Breeders' Cup I checked Twitter and saw this from Golden Gate Fields race caller Michael Wrona, regarding an injury to FLASHY DAME suffered somewhere after she crossed the wire a winner in the fourth race.

Flashy Dame is a name that I will always recognize as she was somewhat involved in my biggest single racing score, the late Pick 4 at Del Mar on September 1, 2013 that paid $5,148.95 for a $0.50 wager.

Flashy Dame's part in it was being one of two horses I was live to in the final leg. The other horse won, but still, I recognize everyone's contributions. Maybe Flashy Dame bumped somebody at the start who would have otherwise won, I don't know. 

Where the title of this post comes in is that the horse who actually did win the finale was WITH A MIRACLE, making her first start for Ron Ellis off the claim. She continued to run well after that and had another barn switch or two. Even won an allowance and then was sent to Sunland Park for the Harry Henson Handicap.

It was in that race that she broke down at the 1/8 pole and was euthanized after being vanned off the track.

And so now they are both gone. And STORM REVELER, who bore the most responsibility for the big payout, winning a juvenile maiden race at 30-1, was a DNF in his last start on May 3 and hasn't been heard from since. Fortunes unknown.

All of these horses get put into very dangerous situations, not by their own choosing. They deserve a lot more respect than they are given from all the people who rely on them, on the whole. Please extend any support you are able to the OTTB organization of your choosing.

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Tom Durkin sighting on Friday at the Breeders' Cup.

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Imperia looked so good preface and in the parade. Tough trip. She'll be back.

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Twilight Derby winner Long On Value getting suited up by Bill Mott.

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Untapable waiting for her turn to run in the Distaff.

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Blingismything prior to Friday's first race.

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Gates close to opening for BC Friday

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Brief Notes on Thursday at Santa Anita

Twas the day before the Breeders' Cup began, and there was some decidedly subpar racing taking place at beautiful Santa Anita Park. And I was on the scene, arriving about 10:15am after leaving the Bay Area shortly before 0500.

I didn't bet much, and what I did bet went down the drain. 

But it was a good day to hang out around the paddock as BC horses were schooling between most races. I got up close with CANDY BOY, ABACO, LUCKY PLAYER, MICO MARGARITA, and MORENO, and some others I had less success identifying.

Candy Boy was pretty uneventful. Abaco acted up on the way back to the barn, bucking over and over and sending the help scrambling. Asmussen was doing work with Blasi on Mico Margarita and Lucky Player. He was cool without a big crowd around and is the guy who told me which horses we were looking at when asked. 

Lucky Player had some issues and just did not seem pleased. Not to me, but to Blasi he plainly said he was glad they brought him over today instead of his first experience with this paddock being before the race Saturday.

For what it's worth, which is likely nothing, UNBRIDLED'S NOTE and TAPITURE are two Asmussen horses who will be wearing hind bandages in their race. Again, this shared with me after I asked why he had yelled those two names to someone down the paddock. I was hoping Tapiture was going to be out soon.

Other brief notes...

I have a real crush on HRTV's Millie Ball. I sort of thought that maybe if the camera adds ten pounds, she would be frighteningly thin in person and help me get over it, but I saw her on set a few times and she was even prettier. Drat.

The corned beef sandwich from the carvery concession is extremely good. Oaklawn thinks they do the best corned beef around, and it's plenty good but not in this sandwich's league.

In other minor celebrity news, I came sort of close to bumping into Eddie Olczyk this morning. He was wrapping up a conversation with someone on his cell phone and our paths were near crossing. I didn't realize he was there until the last second but then there he was. Not really a fan of his announcing work on the NHL back when I followed the sport, but he seems like a nice enough guy and sure knows his way around the ponies. He's part of NBC's team for the event this year.

I am a little bit leery of the dirt racing and whether I can handicap it properly or get too hemmed in by just betting whoever has the longest odds of the two fastest horses out of the gate.