Turkey seeks to take all bonuses from the war in Nagorno-Karabakh
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, on the eve of his participation in the eighth meeting of the Joint Strategic Planning Group operating within the framework of the Russian-Turkish High-Level Cooperation Council in Sochi, made a somewhat unexpected statement. According to him, the Turkish side included the issue of borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the agenda of negotiations with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov after the conclusion of an agreement on the end of the Karabakh war on November 10. “It is necessary that the security of Azerbaijan’s borders be ensured within the framework of international law,” Cavusoglu stressed. "In this matter, we will consider the steps that will need to be taken."
The border issue between the two conflicting parties began to be openly discussed in connection with the Sotk field located in the Gegharkunik region of Armenia, part of which, according to Baku, is located on the territory of Azerbaijan. In this regard, there were reports that representatives of the Armed Forces of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan began demarcation work using special means (GPS) on the former Armenian-Karabakh, now Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Then a problem arose in the Syunik region of Armenia. According to the agreement to end the war, a part of the territories that were under the control of Yerevan passed to Baku, including the Zangelan region, bordering the Syunik region, which brought the Armenian-Azerbaijani border closer to the Armenian settlements, causing discontent among local residents. The heads of the communities of Syunik region announced a threat to security for the region, began to block roads and demanded the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government. He replied that the Armenian military retreated to the border of the former Soviet Armenia, so that the territory under their control would coincide with the zone of responsibility of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and then, if necessary, "Russia will intervene in resolving this issue."
However, in any case, the clarification of the borders after the end of the war in Karabakh belongs exclusively to the competence of the signers of the well-known agreement. What does Turkey have to do with it? In the opinion of the former Turkish Ambassador to the United States, Shukru Elekdag, “Ankara seeks to practically implement one of the points of the peace agreement as soon as possible, which provides for the creation of a transport corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan through Armenia, which is considered one of the main achievements of the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance in the Karabakh war. a strategic win ”. “Nakhichevan, associated with Azerbaijan by the status of an autonomous republic, is separated from Azerbaijani lands by a part of the territory called the Zanzegur Corridor, which belongs to Armenia,” says Elekdag. "Opening the way to Azerbaijan from Nakhichevan through this corridor provides Turkey with access to Central Asia, and Azerbaijan - access to Europe through Anatolia." However, Ankara fears that this project may be "frozen" due to discussions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the definition of borders, which, according to many experts, "can be difficult and lengthy."
Moreover, it is possible that the United States will try to take advantage of this situation, which, according to the American edition of National Review, “slept through the Karabakh war with their presidential elections, and now can intervene in the situation to reduce the“ dependence ”of Baku and Yerevan on Moscow, and Baku from Ankara ". Therefore, the task of Turkish diplomacy at this stage of border settlement is to consolidate precisely on the supposed Armenian section of the Nakhichevan corridor, without waiting for a general settlement of border problems between Baku and Yerevan. More precisely, as one Turkish expert put it, “Right now, Ankara and Baku need to take advantage of the favorable international situation for them in order to turn the fulcrum in the version of the corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan into a footprint, tying Russia's interests on it”. According to him, "for Turkey and Azerbaijan, this is now the main common repertoire in the Transcaucasus." True, the United States does not deny the existence of the so-called hidden scenario: at a certain stage, to wedge into the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance through the resumption of diplomatic and economic efforts in the Transcaucasus.
The Turks are well aware of the situation and strive at all costs to involve Russia in the joint construction of a system of regional security and cooperation in order to reduce at this stage the opportunities for the US and the EU to conduct various maneuvers in the Transcaucasus, since Washington and Brussels, according to the Croatian publication Geopolitika. news, "are deprived of the opportunity because of the sanctions to conduct an active political dialogue with Moscow in the Caucasus." The main platform for the upcoming battles will be the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh, "a discussion on this issue may take years", as, by the way, discussions on the definition of borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In this regard, Moscow will also need to determine its further concrete steps, focusing on two main points. First, Russia needs to maintain good relations with Ankara and Baku, and maintain a strategic dialogue with Yerevan. Secondly, to ensure the achievement of their national interests in the Transcaucasia - the traditional sphere of their geopolitical influence.
Now we can state that there are no conditions for starting negotiations on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the dialogue between Yerevan and Baku will be problematic. An obstacle is the instability of the political system in Armenia, since it is not known whether Pashinyan will retain power. And if not, what kind of policy will be built by the forces that will replace him.












