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@kendrarealestategroup
2023 Real Estate Market Outlook (And What It Means for You)
Last year, one factor drove the real estate market more than any other: rising mortgage rates.
In March 2022, the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to pump the brakes on inflation.1 And while some market sectors have been slow to respond, the housing market has reacted accordingly.
Both demand and price appreciation have tapered, as the primary challenge for homebuyers has shifted from availability to affordability. And although this higher-mortgage rate environment has been a painful adjustment for many buyers and sellers, it should ultimately lead to a more stable and balanced real estate market.
So what can we expect in 2023? Will mortgage rates continue to climb? Could home prices come crashing down? While this is one of the more challenging real estate periods to forecast, hereâs what several industry experts predict will happen to the U.S. housing market in the coming year.
MORTGAGE RATES WILL FLUCTUATE LESS
In 2022, 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged from roughly 3% in January to around 7%. According to Rick Sharga of real estate data company ATTOM, âWeâve never seen rates double in so short a period.â2
This year, economists forecast a less dramatic shift.
In an interview with Bankrate, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors, shares her vision of three possible mortgage rate scenarios:3
Inflation continues to surge, forcing the Fed to repeatedly raise interest rates. In that scenario, she predicts that rates could reach as high as 8.5%.
Inflation decelerates and mortgage rates follow suit, averaging 7 to 7.5% for the year.
Rising interest rates trigger a recession, which could ultimately lead mortgage rates to drop closer to 5% by the end of the year.
Realtor.com forecasts something similar to scenario #2 above: âMortgage rates will average 7.4% in 2023, trickling down to 7.1% by yearâs end.â4 The Mortgage Bankers Association, however, projects something closer to Evangelouâs scenario #3, with the 30-year fixed rate declining steadily throughout the year, averaging 6.2% in Q1 and 5.2% by Q4.5
Economists at Fannie Mae fall somewhere in the middle. In a recent press release, they predicted that the U.S. economy will experience a âmodest recessionâ this year.6 But in their December Housing Forecast, they project that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will only fall by half a point from an average of 6.5% in Q1 to 6.0% in Q4.7
âFrom our perspective, the good news is that demographics remain favorable for housing, so the sector appears well-positioned to help lead the economy out of what we expect will be a brief recession,â said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.6
What does it mean for you? Â Even the experts canât say for certain where mortgage rates are headed. Instead of trying to âtime the market,â focus instead on buying or selling a home when the time is right for you. There are a variety of mortgage options available that can make a home purchase more affordable, including adjustable rates, points, and buydownsâand keep in mind you can always refinance down the road. Weâd be happy to refer you to a trusted mortgage professional who can outline your best options.
SALES VOLUME WILL FALL AND INVENTORY WILL RISE
It looks like the home-buying frenzy we experienced in recent years is behind us. While the desire to own a home remains strong, higher mortgage rates have made it unaffordable for a large segment of would-be buyers.
Many economists expect the number of home sales to continue to decline this year, leading to an increase in listing inventory and days-on-market, or the time it takes to sell a home. But, there is a wide range when it comes to specifics.
Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that total home sales will fall by around 20% this year before rising again by nearly 15% in 2024.7 National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a less extreme dip of 7% in 2023 with a rebound of 10% next year.8
Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale foresees something in between. âThe deceleration in home sales is likely to continue as high home prices and mortgage rates limit the pool of eligible home buyers. We anticipate that existing home sales will decline another 14.1% in 2023.â She expects this drop in sales to lead to a nearly 23% increase in inventory levels this year, offering more choices for buyers who have struggled to find a home in the past.9
However, given the severe lack of housing supply, even with a double-digit increase, the market is expected to remain relatively tight and below pre-pandemic levels. Hale points out: âItâs important to keep historical context in mind. The level of inventory in 2023 is expected to fall roughly 15% short of the 2019 average.â9
What does it mean for you? Â If youâve been frustrated by a lack of inventory in the past, 2023 may bring new opportunities for you to find the perfect home. And todayâs buyers have more negotiating power than theyâve had in years. Contact us to find out about current and future listings that meet your criteria.
If youâre hoping to sell, you may want to act fast; rising inventory levels will mean increased competition. We can help you chart the best course to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your homeâs current market value. Reach out to schedule a free consultation.
HOME PRICES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE
While some economists expect home prices to fall this year, many expect them to remain fairly stable. âFor most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low,â said Yun at a November conference.8
Nationally, Yun expects the average median home price to tick up by 1% in 2023, with some markets experiencing greater appreciation and others experiencing declines.8 Economists at Fannie Mae offer a similar projection, forecasting a slight decrease in their Home Price Index of about 1.5%, year-over-year.7
Other experts foresee a larger fluctuation. Hale expects U.S. home prices to rise by 5.4% this year, while Morgan Stanley is forecasting a 7% drop from the peak in June 2022.9,10
Still, many economists agree that a housing market crash like the one we experienced in 2008 is highly unlikely. The factors that caused home prices to plunge during the Great Recessionâspecifically lax lending standards and a surplus of inventoryâarenât prevalent in our current market.10 Therefore, home values are expected to remain comparatively stable.
What does it mean for you? It can feel scary to buy a home when thereâs uncertainty in the market. However, real estate is a long-term investment that has been shown to appreciate over time. And keep in mind that the best bargains are often found in a slower market, like the one weâre experiencing right now. Contact us to discuss your goals and budget. We can help you make an informed decision about the right time to buy.
And if youâre planning to sell this year, youâll want to chart your path carefully to maximize your profits. Contact us for recommendations and to find out what your home could sell for in todayâs market.
RENT PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
Affordability challenges for would-be buyers, inflationary pressures, and an overall lack of housing could continue to drive âabove-averageâ rent price increases in much of the country.11 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expects year-over-year rental price growth to tick up to 8.4% in May before moderating later in the year.12
According to Hale, âU.S. renters will continue to face challenges from limited supply and excess demand in the coming year that will keep upward pressure on rent growth. At a national level, we forecast rent growth of 6.3% in the next 12 months, somewhat ahead of home price growth and historical rent trends.â9
However, there are signs that the surge in rent prices could be tapering. According to Jay Parsons, head of economics for rental housing software company RealPage, thereâs some evidence of a slowdown in demand. He predicts that market-rate rents will rise just 3.3% this year. Still, analysts agree that a return to lower pre-pandemic rental prices is unlikely.10
What does it mean for you? Â Rent prices are expected to keep climbing. But you can lock in a set mortgage payment and build long-term wealth by putting that money toward a home purchase instead. Reach out for a free consultation to discuss your options.
And if youâve ever thought about purchasing a rental property, now may be a perfect time. Call today to get your investment property search started.
WEâRE HERE TO GUIDE YOU
While national real estate forecasts can provide a âbig pictureâ outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood.
If youâre considering buying or selling a home in 2023, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. Weâll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals this year.
The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.
Sources:
Forbes - https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
Bankrate - https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/will-mortgage-rates-go-up-in-december-2022/
Bankrate - https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/
Realtor.com - https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/2023-the-year-of-the-homebuyer-our-bold-predictions-on-home-prices-mortgage-rates-and-more/
Mortgage Bankers Association - https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-dec-2022.pdf?sfvrsn=b584bf7_1
Fannie Mae - https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/economy-still-expected-enter-and-exit-modest-recession-2023
Fannie Mae - https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45801/display
National Association of Realtors - https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-lawrence-yun-predicts-us-home-prices-wont-experience-major-decline-could-possibly-rise-slightly
Realtor.com - https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast/
The New York Times - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html
CNBC - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/how-much-higher-rent-will-go-in-2023-according-to-experts.html
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816
When it's time to pack up the Christmas decor and redecorate your home, here are some easy tips to keep the winter theme alive.
#1: Keep it simple. Reduce the number of items you keep out on table tops and flat surfaces.
#2: Wash sofa cushions, linens, blankets, and pillow covers. Replace with whites and neutrals.
#3: Keep out a few small to medium-sized trees without lights or decorations.
#4: Utilize real or fake plants to replace the loss of greenery.
#5: Light up your home with candles, real and battery-operated.
What's something you do to incorporate a cozy winter vibe post-Christmas?
#WinterDecor #PostChristmas #Home #Cozy #HomeStyle
Kendra's News & Tips NAR chief economist predicts 'strong rebound' in 2024
#safetyharbor #clearwater #tampabay #stpetersburg #floridarealestate #floridaliving #luxuryhomes #realestateagent #realtor #realestate
Kendra Gale shared a post on Instagram: "Kendra's News & Tips NAR chief economist predicts 'strong rebound' in 2024 #safetyharbor #clearwate
Last week, a 30-year, fixed-rate loan averaged 7.08%; this week it dropped almost half a percentage point to 6.61% as signs suggest inflation may have peaked.
HomeASAPâs search is a first-of-its-kind, modern and immersive property search.
Mortgage rates could continue rise to 8.5%: NAR - The Real Deal https://bit.ly/3T3Ah9p
TWO QUESTIONS EVERY HOMEBUYER SHOULD ASK THEMSELVES NOW
Rising interest rates have begun to slow an overheated housing market as monthly mortgage payments have risen dramatically since the beginning of the year. This is leaving some people who want to purchase a home priced out of the market and others wondering if now is the time to buy one. But this rise in borrowing cost shows no signs of letting up soon.
Economic uncertainty and the volatility of the financial markets are causing mortgage rates to rise. George Ratiu, Senior Economist and Manager of Economic Research at realtor.com, says this:
âWhile even two months ago rates above 7% may have seemed unthinkable, at the current pace, we can expect rates to surpass that level in the next three months.â
So, is now the right time to buy a home? Anyone thinking about buying a home today should ask themselves two questions:
1. Where Do I Think Home Prices Are Heading?
There are two places to turn to answer this question. First is the consensus of what experts are saying. If you look at what experts are projecting for home prices in 2023, theyâre forecasting home price appreciation around 2%. While itâs true some are calling for depreciation, most are calling for appreciation in home values over the next year.
The second spot to turn to for information is the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics â a survey of a national panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. According to the latest release, the experts surveyed are also calling for home price appreciation for the next several years (see graph below):
2. Where Do I Think Interest Rates Are Heading?
Like mentioned above, Ratiu sees mortgage rates rising over the next several months. Another expert agrees. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
âWhile mortgage rates are expected to continue to drift higher over the coming months, much of the rapid increase in rates is likely behind us.âÂ
The instability in the world and higher inflation are driving this volatile market, resulting in higher borrowing rates for those looking to buy homes.
Bottom Line
If youâre thinking about buying a home, asking yourself about home prices and mortgage rates will help you make a powerful and confident decision. Experts see both prices and rates rising in the future. The alternative is to rent, but rents are also increasing. That may mean buying a home makes more sense than renting.
1 views, 0 likes, 2 loves, 0 comments, 0 shares. Facebook Watch video from Tampa Bay Real Estate Pro, Kendra Gale/Broker Serving All of Tamp
Fall maintenance is all about preparing your home for cooler conditions. Use this checklist to prep your home this season! 1. Clean your gutters - Clogged gutters can damage exterior surfaces. Before the leaves fly this fall, clean your gutters, then cover them with mesh gutter guards to keep debris out. 2. Seal up air leaks - Keep your home warm in the colder months by checking around windows and doors for air leaks. Use caulk and weatherstripping to seal up any drafts. 3. Inspect your roof - Check the entire roof for any damaged shingles and look in your gutters for granules which is a sign that your roof is losing its coating. 4. Protect faucets - If you live in an area that is prone to colder weather, you should take steps to ensure your outside faucets don't freeze. Drain the lines and shut-off valves that go to the outdoor faucets to prevent your pipes from freezing and bursting.
8 Strategies to Secure a Lower Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates have been on a roller coaster ride this year, rising and falling amid inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty. And even the experts are divided when it comes to predicting where rates are headed next.1
This climate has been unsettling for some homebuyers and sellers. However, with proper planning, you can work toward qualifying for the best mortgage rates available today â and open up the possibility of refinancing at a lower rate in the future.
How does a lower mortgage rate save you money? According to Trading Economics, the average new mortgage size in the United States is currently around $410,000.2 Letâs compare a 5.0% versus a 6.0% fixed-interest rate on that amount over a 30-year term.Â
Mortgage Rate
(30-year fixed)
Monthly Payment on $410,000 Loan
(excludes taxes, insurance, etc.)
Difference in Monthly Payment
Total Interest Over 30 Years
Difference in Interest
5.0%
$2,200.97
$382,348.72
6.0%
$2,458.16 + $257.19
$474,936.58+ $92,587.86
With a 5% rate, your monthly payments would be about $2,201. At 6%, those payments would jump to $2,458, or around $257 more. That adds up to a difference of almost $92,600 over the lifetime of the loan. In other words, shaving off just one percentage point on your mortgage could put nearly $100K in your pocket over time.
So, how can you improve your chances of securing a low mortgage rate? Try these eight strategies:
1. Raise your credit score.
Borrowers with higher credit scores are viewed as âless riskyâ to lenders, so they are offered lower interest rates. A good credit score typically starts at 690 and can move up into the 800s.3 If you donât know your score, check with your bank or credit card company to see if they offer free access. If not, there are a plethora of both free and paid credit monitoring services you can utilize.Â
If your credit score is low, you can take steps to improve it, including:4
Correct any errors on your credit reports, which can bring down your score. You can access reports for free by visiting AnnualCreditReport.com.
Pay down revolving debt. This includes credit card balances and home equity lines of credit.
Avoid closing old credit card accounts in good standing. It could lower your score by shortening your credit history and shrinking your total available credit.
Make all future payments on time. Payment history is a primary factor in determining your credit score, so make it a priority.
Limit your credit applications to avoid having your score dinged by too many inquiries. If youâre shopping around for a car loan or mortgage, minimize the impact by limiting your applications to a short period, usually 14 to 45 days.5
Over time, you should start to see your credit score climb â which will help you qualify for a lower mortgage rate.
2. Keep steady employment.
If you are preparing to purchase a home, it might not be the best time to make a major career change. Unfortunately, frequent job moves or gaps in your rĂ©sumĂ© could hurt your borrower eligibility.Â
When you apply for a mortgage, lenders will typically review your employment and income over the past 24 months.5 If youâve earned a steady paycheck, you could qualify for a better interest rate. A stable employment history gives lenders more confidence in your ability to repay the loan.
That doesnât mean a job change will automatically disqualify you from purchasing a home. But certain moves, like switching from W-2 to 1099 (independent contractor) income, could throw a wrench in your home buying plans.6
3. Lower your debt-to-income ratios.
Even with a high credit score and a great job, lenders will be concerned if your debt payments are consuming too much of your income. Thatâs where your debt-to-income (DTI) ratios will come into play.
There are two types of DTI ratios:7
Front-end ratio â What percentage of your gross monthly income will go towards covering housing expenses (mortgage, taxes, insurance, and dues or association fees)?Â
Back-end ratio â What percentage of your gross monthly income will go towards covering ALL debt obligations (housing expenses, credit cards, student loans, and other debt)?
Whatâs considered a good DTI ratio? For better rates, lenders typically want to see a front-end DTI ratio thatâs no higher than 28% and a back-end ratio thatâs 36% or less.7
If your DTI ratios are higher, you can take steps to lower them, like purchasing a less expensive home or increasing your down payment. Your back-end ratio can also be decreased by paying down your existing debt. A bump in your monthly income will also bring down your DTI ratios.
4. Increase your down payment.
Minimum down payment requirements vary by loan type. But, in some cases, you can qualify for a lower mortgage rate if you make a larger down payment.8
Why do lenders care about your down payment size? Because borrowers with significant equity in their homes are less likely to default on their mortgages. Thatâs why conventional lenders often require borrowers to purchase private mortgage insurance (PMI) if they put down less than 20%.Â
A larger down payment will also lower your overall borrowing costs and decrease your monthly mortgage payment since youâll be taking out a smaller loan. Just be sure to keep enough cash on hand to cover closing costs, moving expenses, and any furniture or other items youâll need to get settled into your new space.
5. Compare loan types.
All mortgages are not created equal. The loan type you choose could save (or cost) you money depending on your qualifications and circumstances.
For example, here are several common loan types available in the U.S. today:9
Conventional â These offer lower mortgage rates but have more stringent credit and down payment requirements than some other types.
FHA â Backed by the government, these loans are easier to qualify for but often charge a higher interest rate.Â
Specialty â Certain specialty loans, like VA or USDA loans, might be available if you meet specific criteria.
Jumbo â Mortgages that exceed the local conforming loan limit are subject to stricter requirements and may have higher interest rates and fees.10
When considering loan type, youâll also want to weigh the pros and cons of a fixed-rate versus variable-rate mortgage:11
Fixed rate â With a fixed-rate mortgage, youâre guaranteed to keep the same interest rate for the entire life of the loan. Traditionally, these have been the most popular type of mortgage in the U.S. because they offer stability and predictability.
Adjustable rate â Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, have a lower introductory interest rate than fixed-rate mortgages, but the rate can rise after a set period of time â typically 3 to 10 years.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 10% of American homebuyers are now selecting ARMs, up from just 4% at the start of this year.12 An ARM might be a good option if you plan to sell your home before the rate resets. However, life is unpredictable, so itâs important to weigh the benefits and risks involved.
6. Shorten your mortgage term.
A mortgage term is the length of time your mortgage agreement is in effect. The terms are typically 15, 20, or 30 years.13 Although the majority of homebuyers choose 30-year terms, if your goal is to minimize the amount you pay in interest, you should crunch the numbers on a 15-year or 20-year mortgage.Â
With shorter loan terms, the risk of default is less, so lenders typically offer lower interest rates.13 However, itâs important to note that even though youâll pay less interest, your mortgage payment will be higher each month, since youâll be making fewer total payments. So before you agree to a shorter term, make sure you have enough room in your budget to comfortably afford the larger payment.
7. Get quotes from multiple lenders.
When shopping for a mortgage, be sure to solicit quotes from several different lenders and lender types to compare the interest rates and fees. Depending upon your situation, you could find that one institution offers a better deal for the type of loan and term length you want.
Some borrowers choose to work with a mortgage broker. Like an insurance broker, they can help you gather quotes and find the best rate. However, if you use a broker, make sure you understand how they are compensated and contact more than one so you can compare their recommendations and fees.14
Donât forget that we can be a valuable resource in finding a lender, especially if you are new to the home buying process. After a consultation, we can discuss your financing needs and connect you with loan officers or brokers best suited for your situation.
8. Consider mortgage points.
Even if you score a great interest rate on your mortgage, you can lower it even further by paying for points. When you buy mortgage points â also known as discount points â you essentially pay your lender an upfront fee in exchange for a lower interest rate. The cost to purchase a point is 1% of your mortgage amount. For each point you buy, your mortgage rate will decrease by a set amount, typically 0.25%.15 Youâll need upfront cash to pay for the points, but you can more than make up for the cost in interest savings over time.
However, it only makes sense to buy mortgage points if you plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup the cost. You can determine the breakeven point, or the period of time youâd need to keep the mortgage to make up for the fee, by dividing the cost by the amount saved each month.15 This can help you determine whether or not mortgage points would be a good investment for you.
Getting Started
Unfortunately, the rock-bottom mortgage rates we saw during the height of the pandemic are behind us. However, todayâs 30-year fixed rates still fall beneath the historical average of around 8% â and are well below the all-time peak of 18.45% in 1981.16, 17
And although higher mortgage rates have made it more expensive to finance a home purchase, they have also eliminated some of the competition from the market. Consequently, todayâs buyers are finding more homes to choose from, fewer bidding wars, and more sellers willing to negotiate or offer incentives such as cash toward closing costs or mortgage points.
If youâre ready and able to buy a home, thereâs no reason that concerns about mortgage rates should sideline your plans. The reality is that many economists predict home prices to continue climbing.18 So you may be better off buying today at a slightly higher rate than waiting and paying more for a home a few years from now. You can always refinance if mortgage rates go down, but you canât make up for the lost years of equity growth and appreciation.
If you have questions or would like more information about buying or selling a home, reach out to schedule a free consultation. Weâd love to help you weigh your options, navigate this shifting market, and reach your real estate goals!
Sources:
Washington Post -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/08/04/mortgage-rates-sink-below-5-percent-first-time-four-months/
Trading Economics -
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-mortgage-size
NerdWallet -
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/what-is-a-good-credit-score
Debt.org -
https://www.debt.org/credit/improving-your-score/
The Balance -
https://www.thebalance.com/will-multiple-loan-applications-hurt-my-credit-score-960544
Time -
https://time.com/nextadvisor/mortgages/how-lenders-evaluate-your-employment/
Bankrate -
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/why-debt-to-income-matters-in-mortgages/
NerdWallet -
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/mortgages/payment-buy-home
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau -
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/owning-a-home/loan-options/
NerdWallet -
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/mortgages/jumbo-loans-what-you-need-to-know
Bankrate -
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/arm-vs-fixed-rate/
MarketWatch -
https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/as-mortgage-rates-rise-heres-exactly-how-more-homebuyers-are-snagging-mortgage-rates-around-4-01656513665
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau -
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/owning-a-home/loan-options/#anchor_loan-term_361c08846349fe
Federal Trade Commission -
https://consumer.ftc.gov/articles/shopping-mortgage-faqs
Bankrate -
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-points/
CNBC -
https://www.cnbc.com/select/mortgage-rates-today-still-relatively-low/
Rocket Mortgage -
https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/historical-mortgage-rates-30-year-fixed
MarketWatch -
https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/continuing-home-price-deceleration-heres-what-5-economists-and-real-estate-pros-predict-will-happen-to-the-housing-market-this-year-01659347993