Karl Marx's Bath Water @kmbw - Tumblr Blog

About me

I am a communist worker from the post-Warsaw Pact space. I am an early 1990s boy. I work in IT. I am not doing well, mentally or financially. I am optimistic about the future. I am vegan.

I am here primarily to collect my reading notes at @smiling-marx.

This page is reserved for any personal blogging I might partake in. You can reach me here or on Discord at @kmbw.

Gentle reminder to pace yourself and drink water. You are not alone.

Thank you.

What would a less anxious person think?

Let's say you're feeling anxious. You keep focusing and predicting the same scary possibility over and over, and it seems plausible or even inevitable. You might even know that the real probability of that thing happening on a given day is around 0%, not 99%. But it doesn't feel that way.

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

It's not enough to break down old habits, we need to create new habits that will push out and replace the old. In that spirit, let's manually think of other possible interpretations for the thing that makes you anxious.

The goal is not to eliminate anxiety or to distract yourself from apparent danger. Anxiety is our friend. The goal is to take that anxious prediction that you know is inaccurate and start gently flexing those brain pathways. The goal is to make your level of anxiety reflect reality, to develop a habit of naturally considering several outcomes and giving appropriate attention to the most likely ones.

In this example, a severely anxious person over-focuses on appearing red. But others around her don't care, and anyone else in her shoes wouldn't even consider it anxiety-inducing because they know they wouldn't care.

So to come up with alternative explanations, you can brainstorm how others would react in your shoes, and what you would think in the shoes of others, i.e. if someone else was anxious about your thing and you were an observer.

The book compares this to being in a theater and looking at the stage from different perspectives, e.g. from the balcony.

If you noted down your anxious prediction and how likely it sounds, came up with alternatives, considered each one and how probable it feels, and finally re-rated the scary prediction, good job! I'm proud of you.

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sataniccapitalist

I'm Choosing to Live Knowing That Half of Us Will Be Dead in About 25 Years

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries along with the University of Exeter published a report called Planetary Solvency in January of 2025. In the Appendix 1, they outline their best estimation of the death toll of the global mean temperature reaching 3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline: 4 Billion deaths or approximately half of the global human population. Here is a link to their paper.

The Appendix 1 is on page 32 The global mean temperature is increasing at an accelerating rate. It is currently at 1.5 C and projected to hit 3 C around 2050.

planetary-solvency.pdf

kmbw

You have misread the paper somewhat.

You are not alone, I've seen plenty of posts like this, articles, videos. So let's read the paper.

"[...] published a report called Planetary Solvency" - to me this implied they reported on the climate but in reality this is actuaries (statisticians) explaining the tools in their field and how to apply them to climate change for better risk management.

"In the Appendix 1, they outline their best estimation [...]" - they are not doing that. The paper introduces a tool called a risk impact matrix that looks like this:

They illustrate how to use this tool. You put possible levels of impact on the vertical axis, and likely-unlikely on the horizontal axis. You can then place a dot anywhere on this chart: "thing 1 is extreme but unlikely", etc.

This allows you to visualize a dashboard with all the risks you track, and see what is currently the most likely and/or extreme.

In this example, they show four risks (GDP, availability of natural resources, etc.) as light dots, and explain that you can also visualize how that will change given a specific policy, e.g. business as usual might mean that by 2050 the risks will be higher.

They illustrate in detail how to do all this with examples. In Appendix I, they give sample definitions for the labels you see along both axes:

They reiterate that this is an explanation of a tool, not their predictions. The table in Appendix I is titled "Planetary solvency risk impact and likelihood definitions (illustrative)". The intro reads:

The table below shows the Planetary Solvency risk impact and likelihood matrix utilised for the illustrative Planetary Solvency outputs contained in previous sections. A risk impact matrix is a methodology for ranking potential impacts, not a prediction [...]

If anything, their sample risk matrix says: most types of risks are Likely (60-90%) and Limited (1% GDP, 1% mortality, etc.), and if we do nothing, in 2050 risk assessments will be worse.

To counteract the taste of "it's so over", let's talk about emissions. As that document was being written, China was getting over their peak despite (or thanks to!) historically unprecedented industrial growth: "CO2 emissions likely declined 0.3 percent for 2025."

China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a who

China represents the bulk of industrial progress in the world right now:

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/china

Source: https://internationalbanker.com/technology/china-makes-a-strong-push-for-humanoid-robot-market-dominance/

If the largest exporter of renewable energy sources is able to start reducing emissions while going through industrialization, it's completely reasonable to be optimistic if we organize hard.

This is not the time for despair, now more than ever is the time for organizing independent working class parties and addressing our most pressing issues, including climate change and wars that make it worse.

A thing I notice on Tumblr is that sometimes people are snarky and edgy, and those posts get relatively popular, which is surprising to me.

I don't have examples in mind, just something I got reminded about.

Even when someone clearly asks a question from a place of curiosity, they sometimes get mocked. Even if they get a helpful reply, it's mixed with mockery or disdain. It's unpleasant to read, it can't be pleasant to write either.

Why mock someone for asking, or act like teaching each other is a burden? We must explain. We must keep explaining. If you feel angry and exhausted, clock out. But if you stay, please don't make it worse.

There's a difference between an enemy and a misguided friend. If you think it's a friendly interaction, do it properly. Don't be an ass to a friend in need. And if you think the question is malicious, are you doing it for your friendly readers or are you wasting time on deaf ears?

Makes me sad. I shall make myself sweet tea.

What specifically do you fear will happen?

Let's say you're feeling anxious. You've come up with a possible bad outcome and you don't want it to happen but it probably will. Right?

In any other scenario, if I asked you to make a prediction about something, you would brainstorm and weigh possibilities - you wouldn't come up with just one and rate it highly likely because you feel strongly about it. But that's the sort of nonsense anxiety makes us do.

So let's do a little experiment. Take your scary prediction and write it down, as well as how likely you think it is. Don't moderate it, let the anxious side of you speak up. We're not repressing anxiety, we're paying attention to that side of you and taking it seriously.

Write down what specifically you fear will happen and when. Also rate how likely it feels, on a scale from 0 to 100%. Here's an example:

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

You can do this in a text file or even in a physical journal. After the specified date, note down what really happened, and put a mark if your anxious prediction was correct or not.

The problem is not that you make incorrect predictions, it's the rigidity. A common pattern in disordered anxiety is that you keep making the same scary prediction over and over, even as you keep losing that bet.

Take one prediction. Let's say, "my boss will fire me tomorrow", or whatever it is for you. How often have you made this prediction lately? Once a month? For how many months, maybe three years? That would be 36 months, approximately 36 times over the last several years. How many times did it really happen? Let's say 1? That's a 1/36 success rate. If I were to bet money, I would not bet on a 1/36 for tomorrow.

Personally, I immediately want to voice an objection: the chance might be low but it's not zero, and this prediction demands attention.

We'll get to that objection. For now, notice how we went from "this is 100% happening tomorrow" to "according to evidence, 99.9% it's not happening - but watch out."

This is a tiny step in the right direction; this breaks the rigid thinking pattern, at the very least it shifts how probable your scary thoughts are.

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It's notable to me how mental health materials keep mentioning various sources of anxiety without ever engaging with them. So far I've only ever seen rugged "personal responsibility" type mental skills.

It's natural to feel anxious about potentially being fired. You are right to be scared of it and to wish to change it. I believe employment should be a human right. Anyone wishing for a job should be guaranteed one.

Whether you agree or not, whatever personal values we have, we will need to manage our anxiety in order to act on our values. This is the core of why mental health materials should not be entirely dismissed.

For all the flaws of liberal psychiatry, I think it's onto something with the so-called acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) - the point being that you have to have a clear view of reality in order to act effectively and with commitment. You can only act after you accept your current conditions, and you accept not to resign to a life of suffering but in order to act.

Thinking traps

Let's say you're feeling anxious. It might be a real danger or you might be overly anxious out of habit. Let's learn what to do about that.

Before addressing anxious thoughts, let's examine them. Let's see if they include common thinking traps - logical fallacies, inflexible knee-jerk reactions that can be difficult to notice.

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

Note that we're not "debunking" your anxiety right now. We are identifying thinking traps. One thing at a time.

Name and write down the scariest thought bothering you at the moment and see if you suspect it has any of these inflexible patterns:

Jumping to conclusions - thinking of an outcome and assuming it will happen without examining alternatives and their real likelihoods:

Personally, I have the urge to say, "so what if it's not the most likely outcome, any likelihood at all is too much" - we'll get to that.

Catastrophizing - overestimating not only the likelihood that something bad will happen, but also its impact:

The tyranny of "shoulds" - honoring a decision (a rule) that is overly broad, that you wouldn't make if you were to look at pros and cons:

If you're writing down your anxious thoughts, you might want to keep them in a journal. Copy-paste or circle any thinking traps that apply:

It's called rigid thinking because it does not take into account the particular situation you're in. The next few posts will have concrete techniques for stepping out of the rigid patterns listed above - to give you an opportunity to apply the lessons on decision-making from previous posts (given your values and current level of motivation, consider pros and cons and make an informed decision).

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What's the scariest conclusion?

Let's say you're feeling anxious. What thoughts are you having? Write them down. Let's learn a critical thinking skill to get to the bottom of it.

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

Let's identify the underlying scary meaning of your anxious thoughts. Pick one thought and repeatedly ask why that matters to you. Here's an example from the perspective of a teacher anxious about looking weird:

If you do this at least every once in a while when anxious, you will have evidence of your most frequent underlying anxieties, and at the same time learn to articulate concrete thoughts to fact-check and critically assess.

This thinking skill is called the downward arrow technique.

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5. Learning to notice and verify scary predictions

Our brains make decisions based on the situation. Over time, we learn what details in our environment are important to us in some way, and focus on them automatically.

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

We also interpret, or appraise, the things we focus on. We can infer that an animal is dangerous, a person is in a good mood, a fast car is to be avoided. Assigning meaning to things is an incredibly useful ability and not something we're going to fight or suppress here.

The problem is not this phenomenon itself but it becoming too rigid, unresponsive to your actual situation. Sometimes we unintentionally reward ourselves for focusing on irrelevant things over and over. Having the same thought every day doesn't make the thought more important or correct.

In this chapter we'll learn several common emotional regulation and critical thinking skills adapted and targeted at rigid anxious thinking.

Personally, I think this stuff should be taught in schools but oh well, better late than never.

Downward arrow - identify the scariest inferred conclusion

Thinking traps - check conclusions for common logical fallacies

Validity quotient - see how often your scary predictions happen

View from the balcony - check likelihood of alternative meanings

How I coped in the past - challenging catastrophic thinking head on

Balance the "should" - pros/cons to decide if a "should" is worth it

Mental defusion - you "are" your thought -> you "have" a thought

Unhooking - examining what having an intrusive thought implies

(I'm splitting the skills into separate posts and linking them here. I will remove this notice once I'm done; if you are reading this, you are looking at an incomplete version of this post.)

kmbw

4. Learning to observe anxiety and stay conscious

In chapter 6, there will be instructions for taking a scary situation, breaking it down into barely scary variations - and applying the skills we're about to practice now.

The idea is simple: you can't feel an emotion for long, especially if it's intense. Eventually the brain chemicals get depleted. Whether you're happy, or angry, or scared, the feeling peaks and then decreases.

So then, the plan is to simply watch your anxiety and allow your brain to be present, confident in the fact that anxiety doesn't require any action, and that it too will pass.

In this chapter, we will only practice being present and name our inner thoughts and outer world observations. There's no anxiety-inducing twist, it's simple and safe, and you will be in control the whole time (including subsequent chapters).

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

Pick one of the following two exercises. You can skim through the instructions and decide which one fits you more. Then set a timer for 3-5 minutes and sit with it. Personally, I like to play gentle music to bring me back to the exercise. People also use bell sounds.

kmbw

Exercise A: Inside and Outside

We're going to first focus on your inner world, then the outside world, and then repeat all that one more time. Note the thoughts that you have as you do this. There's no win condition, no matter the thoughts you end up training introspection as well as relaxing your fight-or-flight response by widening your focus.

Step 1: with your eyes closed, focus on your bodily sensations for a couple minutes.

Personally, I like to go from my toes, up slowly, all the way up to my head. Notice muscle tension, pain, pleasure, movement from breathing, any other sensations along the way.

Step 2: open your eyes and take in your environment for a couple minutes.

Personally, I spread my attention out, starting from my clothes all the way out to the horizon and the sky. Not just visually, notice sounds too.

Now back to the beginning:

Step 3: with your eyes closed, focus on your bodily sensations.

Step 4: open your eyes and take in your environment.

Second time around, you don't have to cover the same sensations as before. That could be boring. Look for stuff you haven't noticed on your first scan. It takes me about 15-30 minutes to scan through my body, surely in 2 minutes you'll miss some things.

Well done, now note what your mind and body were doing during this:

kmbw

Exercise B: Observing Emotions

This will be similar to exercise A, in that we will gradually focus on the inside and outside world, but we will do it as context for a particular feeling.

You might stop drowning in an emotion if you anchor yourself and see that other things continue to exist apart from this single emotion.

Step 1: Identify a feeling you're having right now.

If catching and naming feelings is difficult for you, I encourage you to search "alexithymia" and exercises for it. This is a common side-effect of having your feelings chronically devalued or simply having trouble focusing on them. For the purposes of this exercise, it's plenty enough to say that you feel "good", "bad", or "meh", or look up a list of emotions to pick from.

Step 2: Focus on your body for a couple minutes.

Step 3: Thoughts are not distractions but part of the exercise. When you notice them, acknowledge them and come back to your body.

Step 4: Widen your focus, notice your body as a whole, your room, and the world outside.

Step 5: Come back to how you're feeling, notice how that feeling exists in the wider context.

Step 6: Continue focusing on your body and the world and watch your feeling in that context.

Well done. You can do this any time, this is now in your toolbox.

kmbw

4. Learning to observe anxiety and stay conscious

In chapter 6, there will be instructions for taking a scary situation, breaking it down into barely scary variations - and applying the skills we're about to practice now.

The idea is simple: you can't feel an emotion for long, especially if it's intense. Eventually the brain chemicals get depleted. Whether you're happy, or angry, or scared, the feeling peaks and then decreases.

So then, the plan is to simply watch your anxiety and allow your brain to be present, confident in the fact that anxiety doesn't require any action, and that it too will pass.

In this chapter, we will only practice being present and name our inner thoughts and outer world observations. There's no anxiety-inducing twist, it's simple and safe, and you will be in control the whole time (including subsequent chapters).

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

Pick one of the following two exercises. You can skim through the instructions and decide which one fits you more. Then set a timer for 3-5 minutes and sit with it. Personally, I like to play gentle music to bring me back to the exercise. People also use bell sounds.

kmbw

Exercise A: Inside and Outside

We're going to first focus on your inner world, then the outside world, and then repeat all that one more time. Note the thoughts that you have as you do this. There's no win condition, no matter the thoughts you end up training introspection as well as relaxing your fight-or-flight response by widening your focus.

Step 1: with your eyes closed, focus on your bodily sensations for a couple minutes.

Personally, I like to go from my toes, up slowly, all the way up to my head. Notice muscle tension, pain, pleasure, movement from breathing, any other sensations along the way.

Step 2: open your eyes and take in your environment for a couple minutes.

Personally, I spread my attention out, starting from my clothes all the way out to the horizon and the sky. Not just visually, notice sounds too.

Now back to the beginning:

Step 3: with your eyes closed, focus on your bodily sensations.

Step 4: open your eyes and take in your environment.

Second time around, you don't have to cover the same sensations as before. That could be boring. Look for stuff you haven't noticed on your first scan. It takes me about 15-30 minutes to scan through my body, surely in 2 minutes you'll miss some things.

Well done, now note what your mind and body were doing during this:

4. Learning to observe anxiety and stay conscious

In chapter 6, there will be instructions for taking a scary situation, breaking it down into barely scary variations - and applying the skills we're about to practice now.

The idea is simple: you can't feel an emotion for long, especially if it's intense. Eventually the brain chemicals get depleted. Whether you're happy, or angry, or scared, the feeling peaks and then decreases.

So then, the plan is to simply watch your anxiety and allow your brain to be present, confident in the fact that anxiety doesn't require any action, and that it too will pass.

In this chapter, we will only practice being present and name our inner thoughts and outer world observations. There's no anxiety-inducing twist, it's simple and safe, and you will be in control the whole time (including subsequent chapters).

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

Pick one of the following two exercises. You can skim through the instructions and decide which one fits you more. Then set a timer for 3-5 minutes and sit with it. Personally, I like to play gentle music to bring me back to the exercise. People also use bell sounds.

kmbw

3. Learning to make informed decisions

Making decisions implies acting on them, so first, some notes on motivation. I hope this will dispel a few common myths and help against learned helplessness.

Point 1:

You don't need motivation for months ahead, you only need enough to read the next sentence. And then the next.

Source: Anxiety and Avoidance (2013) by Michael Anthony Tompkins

Point 2:

Your motivation will keep shifting depending on stress, sleep, food, and so on. Expect this. Don't be stubborn. Go back to something easier when your motivation drops.

You want the pain to stop, right? Just read a sentence if that's all you can do today.

Point 3:

Only plan what you actually agree to do. It feels good when your next task is within your reach. It feels excellent.

Consider a high jumper setting a goal that feels out of reach versus a realistic one:

Point 4:

You might feel pathetic about starting small. "Normal people can do all of this effortlessly. Normal people don't need to start small."

This is a trap. This short-sighted thought wants you to fit into the mold of an employable person at any cost. It wants you to overwork yourself. This is counterproductive even if employment is your only concern. This will make you burn out.

Capitalism is built on the ability to hire and fire people at will. This requires people available for hire - a reserve army of labor. The capitalist class is not interested in keeping you in shape. It's quite comfortable with chewing people out and replacing them with fresh reserves. The drive to be normal will allow you to burn out and fall out of employment again.

We are not doing this for them. We are doing this for us. You're not impressing anyone or serving the interests of the working class by burning out. Being realistic is the way. Slow and steady wins the race.

Point 5:

Motivation comes from within. We all live with external pressures, even personal needs are not something we choose, but the willingness to try comes from within.

Don't pressure-cook yourself. If you feel internal resistance, take it seriously. You are not alone, you have allies but we can't be there for you at all times. I need you to be your ally in my stead. Talk to yourself, find a compromise, make plans that you truly believe in.

kmbw

Cost-benefit analysis

You avoid things by habit. It's not like you make an impartial and conscious decision, "today I will doomscroll for 14 hours straight."

If there's any decision-making at all, it's uninformed and biased. It takes the desire to not feel a negative emotion right now and prioritizes it over everything else.

So let us remind our brains how to look at evidence and reason about it.

You can apply this skill to specific situations but let's try it out on the general question of working on your anxiety. What are the pluses and misuses of your anxiety disorder? Of overcoming it? Here's an example:

This is for you, so you're allowed to be honest. Write the actual benefits of staying the same. You don't have to suppress them, you'll see that they really don't stack up. Any hey, maybe they do - then why change? If you choose to change, it will be a genuine decision that you make, not an act of ignoring your "true" wishes. In this way, you love yourself.

Now, if we want to do proper cost-benefit analysis like an engineer for an important decision, we should do a critical review of the claims. For instance, you might review "It's easier not to face my fear" - is it? Does it really make your life easy, not facing your fear? Or is this simply fear speaking? Be kind but firm - you're not ignoring the point but you're not letting it control your life unexamined either.

Personally, instead of the table above I write a list like in the alt text, and then I include critical reviews of the points inline in that list. But you can also do it as a separate table:

You don't have to oversell getting better. This exercise is not really about motivation, this is about learning to engage your thinking brain and having basic structure so you don't feel lost what to even think.

kmbw

Reflecting on values

Motivation that comes from within can be boiled down to values - what is important to you in life.

For example, it might be doing your part in improving the world so that others won't have to suffer the way you do. Or you might mostly want to relax and reconnect with yourself.

Which areas of life feel important to you? Rate them on a scale of 1-10. You can rephrase or add your own if needed.

Family - are relationships with your immediate family a core part of your life? Love, acceptance, respect for them. Support, acceptance from them.

Intimate relationships - is important to care deeply for a spouse or partner? Trust, openness, intimacy, love and being loved, honor and being honored by a special person.

Parenting, mentoring - being a teacher, a protector, loving without expecting something in return, sharing wisdom.

Friends and social life - building a support network, caring, trust, loyalty to your friends, having a fulfilling social life.

Work and career - passion, excellence, integrity at work. Being excited by professional challenges, earning respect of coworkers and advancing in your career.

Education and learning - discovery, thrill of learning new things, seeking truth and wisdom, skills.

Recreation and leisure - seeking balance between work and play, appreciating rest, recharging and connecting with your inner child. Creativity, fun, passion.

Spirituality and faith - being a part of something larger than you, attending services, meditating, connecting with nature. God, faith, spirits, the universe.

Community life and citizenship - service, responsibility, contributing, bettering the world, justice, charity, participation, political action.

Health and self-care - connecting with your life force, taking care of your body. Health, strength, vitality, nourishment, possibly to be able to get the most out of life.

Now, once you've rated the most important items, how consistent have you been, over the past week, about acting according to these values? Again, rate 1-10 where 10 means your actions have been consistent with how important it feels, and 1 means not up to that standard at all.

I find my values shifting over time. But it's helpful to see them outlined.

Chapter 6 will provide exercises to slowly and methodically combat anxiety and avoidance. It will give concrete instructions for retraining yourself, safely and efficiently.

If your brain is used to running away and short-term relief, it's useful to be able to pause and make longer-term evaluations and decisions. It might take effort. It might be uncomfortable. It might take resolve and bravery to get over the hump. The point of this chapter is precisely to give you the tools to gain a bit of resolve whenever the need arises, to "drink frequently from the well of motivation in order to persevere."

If you do it, it will be your choice.