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The Suburbs Where Trump Is Still on Top

Sept. 17, 2020 | Cedarburg, Wisconsin Dear Washington, I’ll bet you’re sick of hearing about the suburbs. And who could blame you? Flip on cable news, open the local paper, check the president’s Twitter feed—there’s no escaping the churn of commentary focused on a place that knows no boundaries and a group of people that defies any real definition. To live in suburbia was once understood to mean something specific: the single-family home, the commute into the big city, the Saturdays spent manicuring a lawn. Today, our collective interpretation of a suburbanite has expanded to include anyone who does not hail taxis to work or take dirt roads home. According to exit polls in November 2016, 49 percent of all U.S. voters identified as living in a “suburban area.” That means roughly 67 million Americans who voted in the last presidential election consider themselves suburbanites. Who is it, specifically, that these campaigns are obsessing over? If Joe Biden has remained broad with his outreach, consistent with a strategy that aims to alienate the fewest people possible, Trump has been easy to read. In more than a dozen recent tweets, the president has predicted that if Biden wins suburbanites will be overrun by an invasion of poor vagrants and violent marauders—the scariest of them, implicitly, Black and brown folks—who will destroy what Trump called the “Suburban Lifestyle Dream.” A stampede of journalists has argued that Trump doesn’t grasp how the modern suburbs are culturally and economically diverse. What those journalists fail to appreciate is that Trump isn’t targeting the suburbs that are culturally and economically diverse. Trump is targeting the suburbs of rich white people. Which brings me to Wisconsin. There’s a reason the 2018 midterm wave, which saw Democrats flip some three dozen suburban-based House districts nationwide, resulted in only marginal gains for Democrats here. Wisconsin is home to America’s most racially polarized metropolitan area. Milwaukee, a majority-minority city, is surrounded by three counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, the “WOW” counties—that are each north of 90 percent white. These counties tend to be far more religious (with a particular deference to the Roman Catholic church) than your typical big city suburb. They are also fabulously wealthy, with education rates and median household incomes that soar above the national average. All three counties have voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968, and by double-digit margins. If there is a “Suburban Lifestyle Dream”—if there is a throwback Leave it to Beaver existence still offered in modern America—it is found in Cedarburg, Wisconsin, an idyllic hamlet nestled in the wooded splendor of Ozaukee County. Cedarburg is impossibly comfortable and categorically safe, its rates of crime and unemployment impossibly low, the sort of place where people leave front doors unlocked all day long. Downtown is straight out of Norman Rockwell’s daydreams, an elm-lined stretch of Americana where locals strut through morning power-walks and sip designer coffee and duck into boutique spice and wine stores. The only trouble in sight is a dog doing its business on an immaculate flowerbed. This is a very different type of Trump Country from the one most commonly mythologized—just swap out the camouflage for cardigans, the flannels for Patagonia fleeces. In 2016, the president carried the WOW counties by yawning margins. Washington was decided by 40 points, Waukesha by 27. Ozaukee was the tightest of the three: 19 points, prompting whispers of a slow political realignment due north of Milwaukee. While it’s true that Ozaukee is as Republican as any county in America—no Democratic presidential hopeful has cracked 40 percent of the vote in more than half a century—it’s also true that Trump has some unique problems here. The president won 56 percent of the vote in Ozaukee County but ran nearly 10 points behind GOP Senator Ron Johnson on the same ticket. It was a vivid display of the misgivings many Republicans had about Trump. Some split their ticket. Others voted for the Libertarian nominee. More than a few simply left the top of the ballot blank. There is an opportunity here for Biden to break that 40 percent threshold, to take advantage of soft Republican support for the president. The bigger opportunity, however, belongs to Trump. The 2020 election is shaping up as a clash of tribes—the ultimate binary choice on everything from politics to lifestyle to shared identity. With the electorate even more polarized now than it was in 2016, it’s difficult to imagine 7.2 percent of Ozaukee voters siding with a third-party candidate, as they did last time. If I’ve heard one thing from Americans over the past four years, in conversations from coast to coast, it’s that they feel forced to pick a team. Trump’s most essential task is to remind Republicans—especially in Wisconsin, without whose 10 electoral votes the president will struggle to win reelection—which side they’re really on. This urgency for Trump echoes far beyond Ozaukee County. Although the suburbs in other swing states are more diverse—the communities around Detroit and Philadelphia bear little resemblance to those around Milwaukee—there are pockets of voters everywhere like those in Ozaukee. Identifying these people and persuading them to remain true to their Republican roots is Trump’s only chance to hold down his margins of defeat in metropolitan areas—which, in turn, may be his only chance of securing a second term. You’ll know whether he’s successful by watching a place like Cedarburg. It voted in 2016 as a perfect representation of Ozaukee: 88 percent turnout (87 in the county), 55 percent for Trump (56 in the county), 37 percent for Clinton (37 in the county). Four years later, on a September afternoon in downtown, I talked with residents about the changes they see locally—the proliferation of partisan yard signs, the generational shift in attitudes toward racial justice, the one issue they prioritize above all others—and whether Cedarburg could symbolize Trump’s last stand. “Unfortunately, we only have two real parties in this country, so our options are pretty limited,” said QUIANA VERBETEN, a 31-year-old mother of three. “I voted for Trump last time, but I cried. Literally—I cried while voting. I did not want to vote for him. But I decided I had to. And I actually feel better about him now.” Why? “Honestly, I’m pretty close to a one-issue voter. Abortion is the thing I care about most,” she said. “Trump is the only president to ever speak at the March for Life. That meant a lot to me.” PETER VERBETEN, who works in software, let out a chuckle. “It’s funny, we actually disagree. I feel much worse about him now,” he mused. “But I’ll probably vote for him again, and for the same reason. The abortion issue, the conservative judges he’ll put in place—those things are going to last much longer than his presidency. I’m voting for those things. I’m not voting for Donald Trump.” Quiana, who trained as a hair stylist but now stays home with the couple’s daughters, said she and her husband are outliers among their peer group. “I’m of the belief that America’s values have been ground down for a long time, that our public schools have pushed an agenda on our kids, and that indoctrination has worked. We’re seeing that now,” she said. “Our generation has grown up with these values that have pushed them further to the left. They’ve got a different foundation from previous generations. That’s why we’re homeschooling our kids.” Like nearly every person I met in Cedarburg, she spoke of a city 60 miles south: Kenosha. After the police shooting of Jacob Blake, an unarmed Black man, a mix of demonstrations—many peaceful, some violent—engulfed the city’s streets, bringing the summer of social unrest that much closer to home for the suburbanites of the WOW counties. “It’s difficult to make sense of what’s happening right now,” Quiana said. “I’m pro-life, and I really do think that every life matters, so I want to support these causes. But I can’t support the organization Black Lives Matter because the organization itself is hateful. I’m all for peaceful protesting. And there needs to be real police reform. I’m just in that gray area. We want to support the police, but we also want to support people who are oppressed.” JEFF MOSES wanted to talk it out. “Look, I disagree with Trump on a lot of things. I’m for immigration. I’m for a lot of these social justice causes. I break with Trump on some pretty fundamental issues. But, on the other hand, I disagree with Democrats on a fundamental issue: abortion. And it’s hard for me to get over that. How can you advocate for social justice but approve of killing unborn babies? It makes no sense to me. So, what am I supposed to do?” He thought for a long moment. “I don’t know. I’m really not sure if I can vote for Trump again. But I definitely don’t think I can vote for Biden.” Moses, a 57-year-old investment analyst, was waiting outside the bank for his wife to complete a deposit. They live a short walk from downtown. Daisy, the family’s chocolate lab, moaned impatiently throughout our conversation. I asked Moses for his opinion on the Democratic Party. Under the watchful eye of his wife, LINDA MOSES, who had just emerged from the bank, Jeff measured his words. “I am very, very concerned about what we’re seeing from the far left. And look, trust me, I know there are radicals on the right, too. But the media is so biased; they spend all their time on the right-wing radicals and give the left-wing radicals a pass. And honestly, that’s part of the reason I’ll probably wind up voting for Trump again. The media hates the people who voted for him last time, and they don’t bother understanding how they could possibly vote for him again.” Linda frowned. “I have a slightly different view,” she said. “This isn’t about the far left, or the radical right. This is about Donald Trump,” she continued. “I don’t trust him at all. People like that he’s not politically correct. Well, OK. But that doesn’t mean he’s trustworthy. I think he has no personal ethics whatsoever. None.” Linda explained that she is a longtime Republican who, in 2016, voted for Hillary Clinton for president—and Ron Johnson for Senate. She plans to do the same thing this fall, splitting her ticket between Biden and congressional Republicans. She’s not excited about it. But she feels it’s her duty. “Biden is the lesser of two evils, just like Hillary was,” Linda said. Does she still have a home in the Republican Party? “I don’t know. I’ve moved left a little bit,” she said. “But I’m not exactly a Democrat. I mean, I have strong feelings about certain things, like the environment and social justice. But, you know, we raised our kids Catholic, we instilled in them certain values. And I don’t believe Democrats represent some of those values, particularly when it comes to life. The abortion issue is a big problem for me.” I asked them both whether Biden could break through in Ozaukee County this November, putting the area in play or at least substantially closing the historic gap between parties. “There’s a big change occurring here. People want to get out of places like Chicagoland and Milwaukee and come up this way for the better schools, the safe communities, and really, with Covid, more space to work from home,” Jeff said. “Yes, and there’s a much bigger movement against Trump now,” she said. “There’s much more diversity, at least diversity of thought, in this community and in the surrounding areas. And I know some people would disagree, but my personal feeling is that the Black Lives Matter movement helps Biden’s cause here. It really highlights how people are afraid of this white supremacist movement gaining stream—and how Trump seems to be a part of it.” Jeff grimaced. “The white supremacist people are nuts, no doubt about it, they’re causing violence and they need to be put away,” he said. “But when you look at these riots in Kenosha—burning down blocks of small businesses, that’s not peaceful protest. I’m telling you, it’s changing peoples’ minds about how they view the racial justice movement. We don’t want chaos and destruction. That’s not peaceful protest. That’s not what Dr. King was about. And when you see it happen in Kenosha, it scares you.” In the picture-book atmosphere of downtown Cedarburg, only one thing appeared out of place: DAVE BREIDENBACH. The 68-year-old retired salesman stood in front of a local storefront holding a sign: “Pray to End Abortion.” His silver Ford SUV, parked a few feet away, was plastered with similar pro-life signage. Against the placid backdrop of his hometown, Breidenbach stood out—not just for his scruffy white beard and red MAGA cap, but for his willingness to stir the pot politically. I had noticed, since arriving in Cedarburg, the remarkable reluctance of locals to speak on the record. Never in the past year had I encountered so many people unwilling to put their names to statements. I chalked this up to a general tendency I’ve noticed throughout my career, that wealthy white people are the most averse when it comes to discussing their politics. Breidenbach, who stood courting conversation (and sometimes, he admitted, confrontation) on the corner of Washington Avenue and Turner Street, offered a more urgent explanation. “These people are timid. They don’t want to get harassed. They don’t want to ruffle any feathers,” he said. “Cedarburg is conservative but lackadaisical. These people don’t realize that it could happen here.” What could happen here? “The violence, the liberalism, the godlessness of the big cities,” Breidenbach replied. “Let me put it this way. I’ve lived here 23 years. The favorability of me standing here used to be 70 percent. Now, I’d say it’s closer to 60 percent. And it won’t be long before it’s 50-50. The last few years, we’ve seen a lot of liberals come to town. You can’t understand if you aren’t from here—we have never seen Democrat yard signs before. Now, they’re all over the place—along with the Black Lives Matter signs, the rainbow flags. They’re everywhere.” Breidenbach said he supports Trump fully—not just by virtue of his abortion policies, but because of his “businessman’s mentality” to running the government. He said the backlash to Trump that’s visible in Cedarburg may, in fact, help the president in the short term. “A lot of these people who stayed on the sidelines last time, they are getting in for Trump now.” Still, he acknowledged, the long-term trend lines are troubling. “We’ve had two Black Lives Matter marches come through here, shutting down the main street here. I had to stand guard in front of the jewelry store over there, because you just never know,” he said. “Who could’ve imagined that would ever happen here?” JIM ALBRINCK threw me a curveball. After identifying himself as a retired business executive and lifelong Republican, the 77-year-old Albrinck launched into an unsolicited commentary on the state of America’s turmoil—starting with Kenosha. “Law and order has got to come back to America. I think the government has got to find out who’s funding these demonstrators, these protests, and punish them,” he declared. Having heard this sentiment on repeat in recent months, I expected a sharp right turn toward MAGA territory. Instead, Albrinck continued: “There are some bad apples in the police barrel, and we need to get them out before the whole thing rots. What are we doing to improve policing? Where is the funding for mental health training? Why aren’t we doing more to equip these officers psychologically for the job? And you know what makes everything worse? That old union mentality—they stick together, they don’t snitch, they protect bad cops. You look at these incidents on the news and you think, ‘How the hell did these guys even graduate the police academy?’ But then, every time there’s a Kenosha, people think, ‘You know, maybe Trump is right, maybe Biden is too weak to stand up to these people.’” Does Albrinck believe that? “Of course not. It’s detached from reality,” the old gentleman scoffed. “What has Trump done to make these situations better? All he does is talk in a way that divides people and makes every situation worse. Trump has done more to divide this country than anyone in my lifetime. He’s a bully. He’s selfish. He doesn’t care about the country; he cares about himself.” It’s that division—not Trump himself, Albrinck argued, but the underlying polarization—that is at the root of America’s present state of crisis. “The problem is, neither political party has done anything in a long time to bring us together. People don’t just disagree anymore; they hate each other. It’s gotten so bad that if you wear a mask, people give you dirty looks, like, ‘Oh, it’s a Biden supporter,’” he said, adjusting his tenor to convey a faux disgust. “It just doesn’t make any sense. Nothing makes any sense anymore.” SUE ALBRINCK nodded somberly. “It feels like we can’t trust anything anymore. We can’t trust any of our politicians. We can’t trust the government itself. We’re lifelong Catholics and we can’t even trust the church,” said Jim’s wife, a retired administrative assistant. “None of these institutions that we grew up with, that we leaned on, none of them are trustworthy anymore.” Sue, who’s also a lifelong Republican, made a compromise with herself in the fall of 2016. She was so offended by Trump’s behavior that she could not, for the first time in her life, support the Republican nominee for president; but, because of her opposition to abortion, she couldn’t vote for Clinton, either. Sue wrote-in the name of John Kasich, the former Ohio governor, who had sought the Republican nomination. Her husband did the same. Four years later, the Albrincks are preparing for another first. After spending their entire lives as Republicans, after living in Cedarburg for 35 years as part of a tight-knit Republican community, they will vote for a Democrat for president. “I would love to write in Kasich again, but I cannot bear the thought of Trump in office another four years. So, I’ll be voting for Biden, definitely,” she said. “As a matter of fact, I almost feel like this election I’m just going to vote everybody out, so we can start over. A whole new Congress, new president, new everything. Wouldn’t that be nice?” Jim looked stone-faced. “I’ll vote for Biden,” he shrugged. “And I’ll vote in Republicans to Congress, so they can check him, and hopefully they can work together and get things done.” Does he have any confidence in that happening? “None,” Jim muttered. “Look, he’s not always the most well-spoken person. I’m embarrassed of having voted for him sometimes,” said TRICIA GETTELMAN. “But I think more often than not, he gets the job done.” This was the most consistent defense of Trump I heard in Cedarburg—and, frankly, the most routine argument for his reelection that I’ve heard from Republican voters around the country. Gettelman, a 42-year-old insurance underwriter, said she finds Trump exhausting and tries to avoid listening to him speak. That said, “When it comes to morals, I want a party to align with my values, with the teachings of my Catholic faith,” she said. “The Democrats are so far to the left on abortion now that it’s impossible to vote for them.” Her friend and fellow Republican, SHARON LOOMIS, offered a more affirming evaluation of the president. “He’s taken a business approach to the job. He’ll always get criticized for that, because people don’t understand business,” Loomis said. “Like, right now for example, he’s getting criticized for underplaying the threat of Covid. But he did that to prevent mass panic. Any leader of any Fortune 500 company would do the same thing. What would have happened if he’d come out, hair on fire, yelling and screaming about it?” Loomis added, “And, like Tricia said, abortion is a huge issue. I also care a lot about social welfare, but not the Democratic model of social welfare. I believe we should be able to support people in need and get them back on their feet without just giving, giving, giving endlessly with no accountability.” Gettelman cut in. “Same as with the social justice movement right now. No accountability,” she said. “It’s always OK to protest. But now it’s OK to riot and loot? Sure! Just sweep it under the rug.” “I’m disgusted that Biden came to Kenosha right after Trump did, to make it a political game,” Loomis said. She took a pause. “It’s an election year, so Trump was making a political move, too, but at least he did something while he was here, he allocated resources to help with the response to the riots.” All the while, their third friend, AMANDA SCHULTEIS, remained silent, a smirk tugging at her lips. The three women are close friends—their fourth-graders attend a nearby private Catholic school together—but whereas Loomis and Gettelman are deeply political, Schulteis wants nothing to do with their partisanship. In a county where turnout regularly pushes a mind-bending 90 percent, she has never voted. “I just stay out of it. All of it. Everything is political now—family, Facebook, everywhere you go, it’s all politics,” Schulteis said. “Count me out.” Gettelman was sympathetic. “She’s right. It’s gotten really bad. The last time it was this bad in Wisconsin was the recall election,” she said, referencing the attempted ouster of former Governor Scott Walker. “But after that was over, things got better. There were still hurt feelings, but we didn’t talk about it as much. Maybe we’ll get back to that place.” Schultheis didn’t sound optimistic. “There’s too much at stake for all these people, especially their religious values and beliefs,” she said. “They can’t separate politics from the rest of their lives.” Can she? “That’s why I’m not voting,” she said. “I’m focused on things I can control.” Her friends seemed only mildly annoyed at this—probably because they’ve gotten used to her indifference to their politics. Still, Gettelman said, “There is a lot at stake. The safety and security of my kids. The world is so polarized now. I worry constantly about my kids being safe, because people are so angry and so upset, they won’t think twice about doing something that will endanger my children. We came up here because we thought it was a safe community, but I don’t feel safe anywhere anymore.” At this, Loomis cocked her head to the side. “Really?” she asked. “You don’t feel safe here?” That’s a wrap for now, Washington. Keep a close eye on the WOW counties, and especially on Ozaukee. If Democrats break that mystic 40 percent barrier here, it would certainly bode well for Biden’s performance with rich white suburbanites around the country. On the flip side, if Trump’s vote-share jumps from 56 into the low- or mid-60s, it’s a good indicator of wealthy Republicans defaulting to their traditional party allegiance. I’m hoping to send you a few more letters before Election Day—assuming the post office delivers them in time. (Sorry, couldn’t help myself.) In the meantime, if you’ve got places you think I should visit, people you think I should meet, drop me a line: [email protected]. Until then, be well and stay healthy. Your old pal, Tim

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Democrats lose control of marijuana messaging

Removing federal penalties for marijuana looked like an easy win for Democrats two weeks ago, but the momentum has stalled. Democrats have been scared off by Republicans' use of the marijuana bill to bludgeon Democrats on the lack of a coronavirus deal, and moderates in tight races worry it will be linked to hits they’re already taking over the “defund the police” movement. So instead of embracing the progressive messaging of this bill as an election win, House leaders are now thinking about punting marijuana until after November 3. “In about two weeks, the conversation has gone from 'no problem' to people now doing a stutter step, maybe trying to … avoid this vote altogether,” said Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.), a co-chair of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition and a strong supporter of cannabis legislation. “[It] should have been a non-partisan vote, support on both sides of the aisle.” Marijuana legalization has far-reaching national support from Democrats, independents and even a majority of Republicans, multiple polls show. Democrats have touted the MORE Act all summer as a criminal justice reform bill, amid ongoing protests over racial equity that a majority of the public supports. A disproportionate number of Black or brown people are arrested for cannabis possession each year, and this bill aims to reduce arrests and erase some marijuana criminal records. Democrats also wanted to use this historic bill — legislation to remove federal penalties on marijuana never passed out of committee until earlier this year, let alone had a floor vote — to show that legalization would be possible if Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. But that message has been hijacked. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) hit House Democrats on Monday on weed, saying Dems are prioritizing marijuana over the massive public health and economic fallout from the pandemic. Democrats retort that the House passed a $3 trillion coronavirus aid package in May — and the Republican Senate has not yet taken it up. Senate Republicans introduced their own coronavirus package last week, but it did not get enough votes to clear a procedural hurdle. Moderate Democrats, such as Reps. Abigail Spanberger (Va.), Max Rose (N.Y.), Lucy McBath (Ga.) and Anthony Brindisi (N.Y.), have been hit by Republicans for supporting a bill to “defund the police” — despite the fact that the bill does not defund police, but rather would create a national database to track offenses and crack down on excessive force. Those attacks, however, have increased worries about how voting to expunge cannabis records will play among voters already uneasy about broad police reform. House leaders are now talking about punting the marijuana decriminalization bill — which was planned for a vote next week — until the lame duck session, in hopes of soothing moderate worries weeks before the election and getting a higher vote count for the weed bill in return. “I'm not worried about [the marijuana bill]; I'm for it. I'd like to get it done,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said on Tuesday, but added that lawmakers need to concentrate on coronavirus aid and funding the government. “The other bills are not timely. We could pass them today, [or] we can pass them tomorrow.” Even though the bill is not likely to pass the Senate, House Democrats thought the messaging created by this bill was important. Progressives and Democrat strategists say the marijuana vote would actually help in most congressional races and that a vote for the measure won’t turn away voters in droves. “If you're trying to punt it as a result of a political calculation, I disagree with that calculation,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), a co-sponsor of the bill. “This is an enormously popular policy — not just for our base, but it's also very popular amongst certain parts of registered Republican voters and independent voters. I think this is a win-win-win policy, and I think that we should be doing this before the election.” Political strategists say that while each House race has its own dynamics, moderates should see the MORE Act as a way to turn out both their Democratic base and undecided independents and not worry about how it plays to voters worried about the “defund the police” movement. “If you're already motivated on the [idea that] the thundering hordes are coming over into your suburbs to take away your wife and imprison you in a socialist hell, I'm not sure being for [marijuana] is going to add any fuel to that fire,” said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist. Talking about marijuana has helped boost turnout in past elections, said Sal Pace, a former Colorado House minority leader who now is a consultant focusing on the role cannabis plays in political races. He said targeting voters who care about cannabis helped increase turnout during now-Colorado Gov. Jared Polis’ 2018 campaign, which he worked on. “If a candidate is talking about cannabis in an effective way, and they're running against someone who is not pro-cannabis legalization, that issue can be used to turn out young voters,” Pace said. And with the national focus on criminal justice reform, many progressive say this bill should be a lock. “This should be seen as a prime opportunity to address a form of systemic racism,” said Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), pointing out that the number of co-sponsors on the bill has jumped from 87 to 111 in the last two weeks. Anti-legalization advocates, however, say the pandemic is not the right time to consider marijuana legislation. “Allowing a massive corporate takeover of an addictive drug with scientifically proven public health harms is not good for our nation as we continue to grapple with a global pandemic, along with a crippling opioid crisis," read a letter sent by a coalition of advocates to House leaders on Tuesday. Progressive lawmakers also see voting on marijuana ahead of the election — rather than afterwards — as part of a bigger strategy: It could help flip the Senate. Both Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) argue that taking the unprecedented step of passing legislation to decriminalize marijuana — even if the bill will not pass the Senate this year — would encourage their base and increase Democrat turnout in key Senate races this year. “There's a moral urgency in this I think a lot of voters understand — and that this is a motivating issue for them — especially for younger voters,” Booker said. “I know that everything's through a political guise, but I think no elections are going to turn based upon voting for something that is all about restorative justice in this country.” Many moderates, though, say their problem isn’t with the marijuana bill — it’s on the lack of a coronavirus deal. When asked about a vote on marijuana decriminalization, for example, both Reps. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) and Spanberger said they are singularly focused on a coronavirus package. Kim added that he is fine with the House bringing marijuana up for a vote, but he — and other moderates including Lamb and Rose — also said they have either not looked at the bill or are still working through the issue with their staff. “The focus of constituents — the real call for action, the real unmet needs out there — are emergency relief for the pandemic,” said Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.), a member of the Congressional Black Caucus who is en route to reelection in his solidly blue district. Brown said he is getting calls from constituents about the pandemic, but no one is reaching out about the marijuana vote. In response, advocates and progressives argue the House should be able to deal with both the pandemic, funding the government through a continuing resolution, and still pass other important pieces of legislation. “This week, they voted on a number of bills that didn't get in the way of the CR, [and] didn't get in the way of the COVID package,” said Drug Policy Alliance’s Maritza Perez. “They have the ability … and the responsibility to do both.” For Perez and a number of other advocates, the House punting on marijuana while still taking action on other non-coronavirus legislation is a reiteration of the same conversation, heard by justice advocates time and time again. “We like to tell people to wait when it comes to things related to justice, which is really frustrating, because that should be at the top of Congress members’ mind,” Perez said. “In my opinion, it's a civil rights bill, right? It's a social justice bill. Why are we not prioritizing it?”

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House Democrats blast Boeing for 'inexcusable' failure to disclose 737 MAX failings

House Democrats on Wednesday denounced Boeing's "inconceivable and inexcusable" failure to disclose key safety vulnerabilities in its 737 MAX jet and excoriated the FAA for a process that allowed it, in a new report released ahead of a legislative push to tighten regulatory scrutiny of aircraft approvals. The House Transportation Committee majority's 18-month probe into the failures that led to two overseas crashes that killed 346 people concludes, among other things, that Boeing failed to disclose to the FAA that pilots took a "catastrophically" long time reacting to a surprising malfunction of the flight control system that had been discovered in testing — and which ultimately has been implicated in both crashes. “While it was not required to share this information with the FAA or Boeing customers, it is inconceivable and inexcusable that Boeing withheld this information from them,” the committee said in the report. “It also argues strongly for a disclosure requirement.” The report charges that the congressionally mandated delegation system that allows aircraft manufacturers to approve their own designs as safe, under FAA supervision, is rife with inherent conflicts of interest. For instance, aircraft manufacturers supervise and pay the salaries of the people that are supposed to be the “eyes and ears of the FAA” — resulting in what committee Democrats call “regulatory capture on the part of the FAA,” leading to failures of oversight. In four instances, the committee found that the FAA’s representatives at Boeing, working as part of the Organization Designation Authorization (ODA) program, “failed to represent the interests of the FAA” and allowed corporate cost-cutting priorities to color their judgment. House Transportation Chair Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) told reporters Tuesday that his legislation is “not going to scrap the whole [ODA] process“ but that he does plan on “adopting significant reforms.” “Both FAA and Boeing came to the conclusion that the certification of the MAX, which killed 346 people in two accidents just a few months apart, was ‘compliant,’” DeFazio said. “But the problem is it was compliant but not safe, and people died. Obviously the system is inadequate.” The committee found that Boeing was determined not to let differences between the older 737 NG aircraft and the new 737 MAX be deemed significant enough to require simulator training for pilots transitioning to the new aircraft, as that level of training would cost Boeing as much as $1 million per plane. As a result, the impact of the new flight control system, called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), had to be downplayed. FAA representatives at Boeing went along with this and did not clue the agency in to the real impact of the changes, even as they privately expressed reservations. In a May 2013 strategy meeting, Boeing officials discussed the “problem” that “every new buzzword represents a company and airline cost via changed manuals, changed training, changed maintenance manuals.“ The recommended action that arose was to “investigate deletion of MCAS nomenclature and cover under the umbrella of ‘revised speed trim.’” The committee said it appears that both the FAA’s designee to Boeing and the team manager agreed to keep “referring to MCAS by name internally“ and “externally we would communicate it as an addition to Speed Trim.” Boeing has disputed this account, but the committee asserts that since that 2013 meeting, “Boeing has, in fact, repeatedly characterized MCAS as an addition to speed trim.“ As a result, pilots were left largely in the dark about significant changes to the aircraft. Those designated safety representatives were also aware that faulty sensors giving incorrect readings of the angle of the airplane could repeatedly trigger the MCAS in a way that could make the plane hard to control, but did not inform the FAA. The “mandatory” alert that’s supposed to warn pilots when the sensors are in disagreement — indicating a possible sensor malfunction — were inoperable in fully 80 percent of the MAX planes. Still, FAA designees knowingly delivered aircraft with faulty alerts to airlines without letting FAA know. Boeing complained to its software supplier of the problem but didn’t alert airlines or the FAA. The company decided — with the approval of the FAA designee — to hold off on fixing it for three more years “so it could be done in conjunction with the rollout of Boeing’s planned 737 MAX-10 aircraft," the report said. FAA has not held Boeing accountable for these lapses, the report alleges. Had Boeing acknowledged that the flight control system was a “safety-critical” system, it “would have attracted greater FAA scrutiny during the certification process,” the committee said. Boeing executives acknowledged after the crashes that this should have happened. “The operation of MCAS also violated Boeing’s own internal design guidelines related to the 737 MAX’s development which stated that the system should ‘not have any objectionable interaction with the piloting of the airplane and ‘not interfere with dive recovery,’” the report stated. The report spends significant time documenting Boeing’s concerns with competitiveness and cost-cutting, suggesting that the impetus for building the MAX was to outcompete Airbus and to try to recoup some of the company’s past losses. Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO James Albaugh said in 2011, “I don’t think we will re-engine the 737“ as Airbus just had with the A320. But when American Airlines called to tell Boeing that they were “about to close a deal to purchase hundreds of A320-family airplanes from Airbus“ and “if Boeing wanted to maintain its business with American Airlines, Boeing would need to step up soon and offer a similar alternative aircraft or lose out on maintaining American as a customer,” Boeing changed course. The imperative to cut costs influenced countless consequential decisions, including the choice not to install a pilot alert system that is standard on every other Boeing commercial aircraft line. “The FAA accepted Boeing’s argument about the impracticality and the economic expense of installing” that system, which “may have helped to alleviate pilot confusion in both the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines accidents” had it been present, according to the report. In a statement, Boeing said it has “learned many hard lessons“ and made widespread changes to its safety culture as a result of the crashes and that the MAX has been put through an “intensive internal and regulatory review.“ “Once the FAA and other regulators have determined the MAX can safely return to service, it will be one of the most thoroughly-scrutinized aircraft in history, and we have full confidence in its safety,” Boeing said. The report chronicles other evidence of what it calls the FAA’s “bias” toward Boeing and failure to take action to ensure safety in the face of known failures. In December 2018 — between the Lion Air crash and the Ethiopian Airlines crash —the FAA conducted a risk assessment “and estimated that without a fix to MCAS, during the lifetime of the 737 MAX fleet, there could potentially be 15 additional fatal crashes resulting in over 2,900 deaths,” according to the report. “Despite that assessment, the FAA permitted the 737 MAX to continue flying.” The FAA said in a statement that it is “already undertaking important initiatives” based on lessons learned from its own and other reviews, and that it would work with the committee to “implement improvements identified in its report.” The agency noted that it “continues to follow a thorough process, not a prescribed timeline, for returning the aircraft to service.” Throughout, the committee points to the ODA system as the root of much of the breakdown of safety oversight, faulting it for the “noted decline in product quality and safety culture at Boeing” that coincided with its rollout. A bipartisan Senate bill, which will be marked up Wednesday would make changes to the certification system, but none as dramatic as those DeFazio may be contemplating. DeFazio didn’t lay out a timeline for the bill or its release but said that he’s negotiating with House Republicans to craft what he hopes will be a bipartisan bill that can be passed by year's end. But the top republican on the committee, Sam Graves of Missouri, called the report “partisan” in a statement that said the Democrats‘ investigation “began by concluding that our system was broken and worked backwards from there.“ “If aviation and safety experts determine that areas in the FAA’s processes for certifying aircraft and equipment can be improved, then Congress will act,” Graves said, adding that none of the “nonpartisan reports and investigations“ released to date “have concluded that the U.S. certification system is fundamentally broken or in need of wholesale reform.“ “Boeing does not appear to have fully accepted the lessons from the MAX accidents or taken responsibility for design errors,” the committee writes. “Without that recognition it is hard to believe that Boeing will make the changes necessary to improve its safety culture.” Meanwhile, an international regulatory body is meeting this week in London to discuss new proposed training requirements for the MAX, one crucial step toward the eventual ungrounding of the aircraft.

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Biden woos Puerto Ricans in Florida — and gives new hope to state Democrats

TALLAHASSEE — Buoyed by promised ad buys, new hires and Joe Biden's visit on Tuesday to Kissimmee — home to a sizable Puerto Rican population — Florida Democrats are growing more confident of the party’s chances with Hispanic voters as Election Day approaches. Florida Democrats haven’t been shy about launching attacks at their own candidate and party leadership as Biden and Donald Trump remain neck and neck in the battleground state. But that tune is changing after Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, made a stop in Miami last week and Biden chose Kissimmee for his first in-person campaign appearance. In Kissimmee, a city outside Orlando and the epicenter of the state’s Puerto Rican vote, Biden planned to outline a wide-ranging plan to help Puerto Rico, an island battered in recent years by natural disasters and economic instability. He wants to make it easier for Puerto Rico to get federal assistance after years of fighting with the Trump administration for help in the wake of devastating natural disasters, boost payments to the island’s Medicare Advantage System and expand coronavirus services. Biden has not endorsed statehood, which is among the biggest issues for Puerto Rican voters. “They have woken up and smelled the café con leche,” said state Sen. Annette Taddeo, a Miami Democrat and persistent critic of her party’s Hispanic outreach. “It’s absolutely not too late. I’ve been happy they are taking note.” For years, the political fight for Florida’s Hispanic vote has centered on South Florida, home to huge patchwork of Hispanic voters, including conservative-leaning Cubans, Venezuelans and Nicaraguans. That focus is starting to shift to Central Florida, where more than 1 million Democratic-leaning Puerto Ricans have become a powerful voting block that has helped offset conservative Cuban voters. Florida’s complex Hispanic electorate now makes up 17 percent of all registered voters. “We are going to have a full-court press in the Central Florida region,” Biden campaign adviser Christian Ulvert said. “The Puerto Rican vote is critical, and the campaign is going to work hard to earn every one of their votes.” Following Biden’s appearance Tuesday, big-name surrogates are expected to blanket the Orlando media market, a large and critical portion of the coveted Interstate 4 corridor, in the weeks leading up to Election Day. “Nothing is perfect, there are always bumps in the road, and we are starting to straighten them out. Is everyone happy? No,” said state Sen. Victor Torres, who is of Puerto Rican descent and represents an Orlando-area seat. “But we are getting there. It is getting worked out and they are trying to make it correct.” Biden’s late-hour attempt to reverse public perception of his Hispanic outreach comes amid a withering drumbeat of criticism from the Trump campaign and Florida Republicans, who are casting Democrats and Biden as socialist-sympathizing extremists who support leftist Latin American strongmen. “Joe Biden is a wholly owned subsidiary of the radical left socialist agenda,” said Florida Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez, a prominent Trump campaign Hispanic surrogate, on a campaign call Tuesday afternoon. “Biden would strengthen Cuba’s brutal regime, which would make it easier to prop up other regimes” such as Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. Biden almost certainly will win the Hispanic vote in Florida, but in a state where the past two presidential elections have been decided by less than a single point, margins matter. A poll earlier this month found Biden’s advantage among Hispanic voters at 53-37, much smaller than the 27-point margin Hillary Clinton claimed in 2016 when she narrowly lost Florida to Trump. Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant who runs Unite the Country, a pro-Biden super PAC, doubts that Biden can replicate Clinton’s margins in Hispanic-heavy Miami-Dade County, but Biden might not have to reach Clinton-level numbers to win the state. The Clintons had 30 years of relationship-building in Miami and Bill Clinton was one of the first Democrats to actively campaign for the Cuban vote, Schale wrote in a memo outlining Florida’s 2020 landscape. “Republicans and Trump have had four years of outreach work.” Trump is unlikely to replicate his massive wins with white older and suburban voters, so Biden won’t have to win the same share of the Hispanic vote as Clinton did in 2016, Schale wrote. Taddeo, who as recently as last week was critical of Biden’s Hispanic outreach, said the campaign has woken up just in time to a potential trap that could once again cost the party Florida’s 29 electoral votes. Biden’s visit on Tuesday builds on excitement over a $100 million ad pledge from former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a portion of which will target Hispanic voters throughout the state. Detailed plans for the commitment have been kept under wraps, but the ad campaign will focus on Hispanic turnout. “The café con leche is getting whipped cream on top with the millions that Bloomberg will spend specifically on Hispanic voters,” Taddeo said in an interview as she drove to do Spanish-language audio work for the Bloomberg effort. “My understanding is that it will be spent on ground and digital,” said a person familiar with early planning for the nine-figure spend. “Bloomberg people are very data-driven. No one will receive money without proof of ability to perform.” Bloomberg’s money will bolster Biden’s paid media advantage in the Miami market and Spanish-language ads across the state. Biden so far has spent $11 million in the Miami market and $1.7 million on Spanish-language ads. Trump has spent $10.9 million in Miami and $800,170 on Spanish-language ads, according to Advertising Analytics. Still, Biden needs to overcome a multiyear effort by Florida Republicans to brand Democrats as extremist socialists, messaging that has been given a signal boost by the Trump campaign. State Rep. Javier Fernández of South Miami, a Democrat running in a competitive Florida Senate seat, said the branding effort has been under way for years. The GOP-dominated Florida Legislature, for example, in 2019 passed legislation to ban sanctuary cities despite the fact that no Florida municipalities have laws protecting illegal immigrants from federal law enforcement. “The consistency and message discipline have long been there. That’s what has made it effective,” Fernandez said. “In Tallahassee, [the Republican majority] have chosen issues to highlight extremism and rule of law. Sanctuary cities are a good example of one of those calculated wedge issues.” “Joe Biden is not a Trojan horse for the liberal left, which is a growing sub-narrative,” he said. “He is going to act within his own belief system.”

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‘A heart pumping blue blood:’ How fast-growing Orlando threatens Trump’s reelection

TALLAHASSEE — In the shadow of Walt Disney World, in one of Florida’s fast-growing metropolises, Democrats are assembling a political machine that they’re counting on to destroy President Donald Trump’s dreams of reelection. The president must win Florida to capture a second term. But the increasingly Democratic Orlando region stands in his way as one of the few places in Florida with a bench of Democratic officials and a grassroots infrastructure to go along with it. As a result, the Biden campaign and Florida Democrats think it can help deliver the crowning blow to Trump in November. That’s what brought Joe Biden to Central Florida Tuesday, where he had a campaign stop in the Puerto Rican-heavy city of Kissimmee. While the visit was ostensibly about connecting with Hispanic voters in honor of Hispanic Heritage month, the bigger target was populous Orange and Osceola counties, which have taken on heightened significance in 2020. Orlando’s Orange County has voted Democratic in five consecutive presidential elections. But last month’s primaries provided ample evidence that the county is ready to turn an even deeper shade of blue after the party won two county commission races and nominated a rising star in Democratic and Florida Puerto Rican politics, state Rep. Amy Mercado, to become countywide property appraiser. Driving the leftward momentum: explosive urban growth, fueled by young voters and those with Puerto Rican roots, like Mercado. They are spreading from Orlando and Kissimmee throughout the swing state’s swing area, the Interstate 4 Corridor, which the Orlando media market anchors in the middle of the state. Recent Orange County elections — which showcased Democrats’ growing mastery of vote-by-mail absentee ballots amid the pandemic — served as a warning sign to Republicans who worry that the county could run up the score so much that it puts Biden over the top in this closely fought state. “There’s a lot of nervousness from Republicans over the new wave of Democrats, their ability to turn out voters and their coordination. It should be an eye-opener for Republicans,” said former Republican state Rep. Mike Miller, who lost one of the county commission races. Miller noted that Florida Republicans “have always dominated” casting absentee ballots, but Trump’s rhetoric against voting by mail led to a sharp dropoff in the practice in his and other races. At the same time, Democrats encouraged voting by mail and Miller’s opponent, freshman Democratic commissioner Emily Bonilla, essentially had the race won before Election Day on Aug. 18. “The primary was a dry run for what we’re going to do in November,” said a Biden campaign official who was not authorized to speak on record about strategy. “What Orange has is a new and emerging Democratic population — Latinos, progressive whites, working-class voters — that we could not turn out before. We can now. We have more tools in the toolbox.” Leading the way for Democrats is the Orlando-area congressional delegation. There’s Rep. Val Demings, who was on Biden’s running-mate shortlist and whose husband, Jerry Demings, is the mayor of the county. Rep. Stephanie Murphy is the first Vietnamese-American woman elected to Congress; Rep. Darren Soto is the first person of Puerto Rican descent from Florida elected to the U.S. House. The diversity of the Democratic delegation, and the spate of recent local wins, are a testament to the rapidly changing demographics of Orange County — the fifth-most populous county in Florida with a population of 1.4 million. Mercado, the state legislator who faces token opposition from a write-in in November to win the property appraiser’s office, said voters with Puerto Rican heritage like her are powering population growth in Orange County and neighboring Osceola County, which is home to Kissimmee. “The VP’s visit today, to the heart of the Puerto Rican community, signals his understanding of the importance of this population and his continued work and advocacy for us,” said Mercado, whose mother, Carmen Torres, helped organize Puerto Rican voters in Florida for Barack Obama’s two successful presidential campaigns. Mercado’s father, Victor Torres, is a state senator. As the population swells in Orange, it’s also exporting Democrats to neighboring communities, like once-red Seminole County. “If you told me four years ago that Seminole would go blue, I would’ve laughed in your face. But it’s changing,” said Anthony Pedicini, a top Republican operative involved in state legislative races. “It’s spreading from Orlando into the surrounding areas. Just look at the highway system, it’s like a heart pumping blue blood in every direction from Orlando,” he said. Pedicini noted that Hispanic voters are not the ones driving the change in Seminole. “It’s suburban whites. We’re losing too many suburban women.” Pedicini says he has seen enough GOP polling in other districts to still feel relatively good about Trump’s chances in Florida, where the president marginally trails Biden in polls. One reason for the GOP optimism is that other areas of the state — from Pasco County in the west of the I-4 Corridor to Daytona Beach in the region’s east — have gotten more Republican as a counterbalance. But while GOP energy is high in those Republican areas, Pedicini acknowledges the presidential race is going to be “a dog fight” and Orange County has a reservoir of Democrats who appear enthusiastic about voting. Democratic enthusiasm in Orange is of particular concern because the county — along with its Democrat-heavy neighbor, Osceola, and South Florida’s Miami-Dade and Broward — has often been plagued by lower turnout rates. Had those counties turned out at the statewide average, Democrats posit, Republicans would more than likely have lost the last two governors’ contests, the Senate race in 2018 and the presidential race in 2016. “Osceola is always a challenge. It’s one of the counties with lowest turnout,” said Marcos Vilar, one of the top Democratic operatives in Central Florida. His United for Progress political committee played a pivotal role in the just-ended primaries and plans to turn out voters in November. Vilar said the local races in Orange and Osceola, where Democrats have focused on electing Latinos in the Boricua-heavy community, has steadily increased turnout and vote share for Democrats. That could be crucial for Biden’s chances, especially as he struggles to attain the level of Hispanic support enjoyed by Clinton. Trump lost Orange by 25 percentage points, or 135,000 votes, four years ago when he narrowly carried Florida. Republicans and Democrats alike believe the margin in the county could be worse for him in November, forcing him to need to make his margins elsewhere. Orange County started slipping out of reach for Republican presidential candidates in 2008, after Obama’s campaign and liberal groups conducted massive registration drives that added more Black and Hispanic voters, allowing him to capture 59 percent of the vote. Just four years before, President George W. Bush narrowly lost the county by one-tenth of a percentage point. The rising population and Democratic presence in Orange, Democrats believe, could soon make it rival the state’s biggest blue county, Broward, and help offset any Republican gains in Miami-Dade County to the south. Outgoing Orange County Commissioner Betsy VanderLey, a Republican who recently lost her bid for another term, said population growth — including younger, Democratic-leaning voters and those from Democratic states such as New York — helped tipped the scales in her defeat. VanderLey, who said the Central Florida metro area was at one point adding a net of 1,500 new people weekly, pointed out that her district’s Horizon West master planned community was the third-fastest growing in the nation. “Four years ago, when I ran, my district was the last Republican stronghold of Orange County and there was only one Democrat on the [seven-member] board of county commissioners. Now there will be just one [Republican] left,” she noted. “The Democrats are clearly energized. If the Republican turnout in November mirrors what we saw in the primary, it doesn’t bode well for Trump in this county.”

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Opinion | How Trump’s Middle East Plan Could Boost the Region

Four years ago, in the midst of a divisive U.S. presidential election, we led a bipartisan task force taking a renewed and comprehensive look at the Middle East. In addition to the region’s many problems, we identified “green shoots” of promise: a surge in entrepreneurial activity, especially among young people and women, a more active civil society, and some forward-thinking leaders beginning to envision a more dynamic and politically open future. Now, in the middle of another divisive American campaign, the Middle East remains mired in difficulties, and many Americans understandably have become fatalistic about its future. At the same time, the “green shoots” continue to mature. In one consequential development, President Donald Trump on Tuesday will host a signing ceremony for a deal that the United Arab Emirates, with U.S. support, agreed to last month with Israel. In exchange for Israel suspending plans to annex portions of the West Bank, the UAE became the first Gulf state to decide to normalize relations with Israel. Just last week, Bahrain did the same. These agreements preserve at least a slim hope of an eventual two-state solution between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors. They might also do much more. Although Palestinian groups generally have been unhappy with these deals, we believe they could eventually benefit other Arab states and the Palestinian cause as well. The next U.S. administration, whoever leads it, should encourage these developments, but the nations of the Middle East will need to take the central role. The Middle East is rich in natural resources and also in human capital, as we found from visiting the region during our years in government and in our recent work on the task force. What is lacking is accountable and effective governance, which America must do all it can to support. Equally essential is regional economic and social integration. This would be helped by an Arab reconciliation that allows for a comprehensive and productive relationship with Israel. Israel’s decades-old peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan began with much promise but then failed to deepen. Ultimately, they rarely extended beyond government officials. The agreements with the UAE and Bahrain envision exchanges and joint enterprises across virtually all social and economic sectors. If other Arab states follow suit and join in expanding trade, investment, cooperative building projects and people-to-people exchanges with Israel, the resulting regional integration could be an engine for economic growth, job creation and enhanced prosperity. For this to happen, Middle Eastern countries will also need to make progress on political and security issues. The UAE’s historic decision reflects its heightened alarm at Iran’s disruptive activity throughout the region. A growing alignment between Israel and the Gulf States could do much to deter future Iranian adventurism and possibly lead to an eventual reduction in tensions. It could even result in tacit cooperation between Iran and regional Arab states in winding down the dangerous conflict in Yemen and promoting a much-needed restoration of stability in Lebanon. If the government of Iran is hoping that the U.S. presidential election will reduce pressure on it to act responsibly in world affairs, it is likely to be disappointed. American leaders in both parties have made clear their opposition to any Iranian attempts to build nuclear weapons or to dominate the region through military threats, subversion or aggression. The next U.S. administration will want to test whether Iran is willing to resume serious discussions on a full range of issues that concern not only the United States but the whole region and, indeed, the entire globe. In this sense, the election is an opportunity for a fresh start. It is no secret that both Presidents Barack Obama and Trump have wanted to reduce American engagement in the Middle East. If the UAE and Bahrain initiatives lead to the kind of evolution we envision, they would not only advance the prospects for peace and prosperity in the region but also could begin a strategic shift in which the countries in the region take more responsibility for defining its future. This is to be encouraged, but success will continue to require American participation and support. The next administration, whether under Trump or Joe Biden, will need to stay engaged, primarily with tools of diplomacy and development, if it is to help the region realize the potential we see for it. It is not surprising that Palestinian leaders and citizens are unhappy with the UAE-Israel agreement. It went against the prevailing assumption that there would be no further Arab recognition of Israel until the Palestinians had a state. While arguably reducing Palestinian leverage, such agreements also provide Arab political support for the Palestinians to make peace with Israel. Palestinian officials would be wise to reengage Israel, return to negotiations, put forward their own — realistic — proposal for peace and concentrate on building honest, effective and responsive institutions that will be critical to the future of an independent state. Other Arab countries can help advance prospects for such a state in how they make their own peace with Israel. They can condition their recognition not only on “no annexation” of the West Bank but also by asking Israel to reaffirm its commitment to the two-state solution, restrict settlement activity to areas likely to become part of Israel in any final peace agreement, avoid further militarization of the Jordan Valley and give the Palestinian Authority greater freedom to develop areas expected to be part of a Palestinian state. The UAE and other Arab governments can design their economic engagement with Israel to ensure that the resulting private sector-led prosperity includes the Palestinians as well. We understand that many Americans remain pessimistic. But these actions, should they come to pass, would offer a much-needed platform for progress toward a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East.

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Biden leads among Arizona Latinos but Trump makes gains

Joe Biden continues to lead among Latinos in the battleground of Arizona. But Donald Trump is showing signs of marginal support with younger Latinos, specifically men, a new poll finds. Biden received 62 percent of Latino support compared to Trump’s 29 percent -- one percentage point ahead of Hillary Clinton’s showing in 2016 exit polls with the voting bloc — according to a new poll conducted for Equis Research, a Democratic Latino research firm. Biden leads among Latinos of all ages, but where Trump has made the most inroads is with young Latino men, receiving 42 percent. By comparison, Biden tops Trump with young Latinas 69-16 percent, older Latinas 67-25 percent and older men 64-34 percent. A total of 64 percent of Latinos in the state disapprove of Trump. Arizona’s growing Latino population, which is overwhelmingly of Mexican descent, is a key reason the state could swing to Democrats in the presidential race for the first time since 1996. Shifting attitudes of white college-educated voters in the suburbs of Maricopa County, and Trump himself, have also contributed to the state’s shifting political landscape. “There's room for Joe Biden to grow his support among Latinos in Arizona in this last 50 days,” said Stephanie Valencia, co-founder of Equis Research, which hired GBAO Strategies to conduct the poll. “There's a lot of room for him to continue to make his case to these younger Hispanic men who may be intrigued by Trump but aren't totally sold on voting for him yet.” Trump support increased by 8 points among Latinos in Arizona compared to the president’s 2019 average in four waves of Equis polling. After weekend events in Nevada, Trump held a Latino roundtable in Phoenix on Monday. Valencia attributed the shift to “Trump intrigue” around the president’s business personality. Latino men under the age of 50 represented the greatest statistical bump for Trump since an Equis’ poll from May. The boost for Trump among young Latino men could be a product of a smaller subsample, Valencia said. But even if the true change were half the size, she said, “we would come to the same conclusion: young men have been increasingly moving toward Trump.” “While more than 40 percent say they are supporting Trump today,” Valencia added. “Only 26 percent rate themselves very likely to support him at the end of the day.” As the election nears, Biden’s campaign has rushed to shore up more Latino support, particularly in the battleground of Florida where he appears to be underperforming Clinton among Latinos in the state. Biden is heading to Florida on Tuesday for a Hispanic heritage event and a veterans' roundtable. In Arizona, Biden’s team is aiming to win at least 70 percent of the Latino vote — the same share of Latinos Sen. Krysten Sinema won in her 2018 race when she became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona since the 1980s. Latinos will be one of the crucial blocs to determine who wins the pivotal Maricopa County and can help in the Democratic-leaning Pima County. “The path to victory here in Arizona, and in some other states, runs through the Latino community,” Jessica Mejía, Biden’s Arizona state director, told POLITICO earlier this month. Arizona Latinos preferred Biden on every issue polled, leading Trump by 44 points on who voters thought would best handle health care issues. When asked who would do a better job of handling the Coronavirus, 67 percent of voters preferred Biden, compared to 25 percent for Trump. On immigration, Biden led 67-27 percent. He also led on the economy, with 57 percent compared to Trump's 35 percent. Valencia said that when Latinos are given more details about Biden's platform, his favorability rises because the vice president is still undefined among the group. The poll also found that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly, who has steadily led Republican Sen. Martha McSally in polls, is outperforming Biden with Latinos in the state. Arizona Latinos favor Kelly by 65 percent compared to 27 percent for McSally. The poll surveyed 600 registered Latino voters in English and Spanish across Arizona between August 20-Sept 2, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. Seventy-one percent of Latinos in Arizona said they’re “very motivated” to vote. Biden’s statewide lead in Arizona, where he is ahead of Trump by an average of 5 points, is also boosted by his numbers with white voters. Biden is ahead of Trump by 22 points with white college-educated voters in the state, according to a monthly tracking poll by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights. Trump won that same group by 6 points in 2016. The shift among college-educated white voters has materialized in the suburbs of other battlegrounds as well. But Valencia cautioned Democrats against overconfidence in the Grand Canyon state. "If the election were held today, Biden would probably win in a place like Arizona based on where he's sitting with white support,” she said. Still, Valencia said, Biden faces a challenge if there's any fluctuation in white voter support — even if it's just a couple of points. "If Democrats have not done the work to increase support among Latinos to close that gap then that is when there will be trouble," said Valencia.

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Trump ad asks people to support the troops. But it uses a picture of Russian jets

A digital ad released by a fundraising arm of the Trump campaign on Sept. 11 calling on people to “support our troops” uses a stock photo of Russian-made fighter jets and weapons. The ad, which was made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, features silhouettes of three soldiers walking as a fighter jet flies over them. The ad first appeared on Sept. 8 and ran until Sept. 12. “That’s definitely a MiG-29,” said Pierre Sprey, who helped design both the F-16 and A-10 planes for the U.S. Air Force. “I’m glad to see it’s supporting our troops.” Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, confirmed that the planes are Russian MiG-29s, and also said the soldier on the far right in the ad carries an AK-74 assault rifle. The Trump Make America Great Again Committee is run by both the Republican National Committee and the campaign. Most of the low-dollar and digital donations raised by the committee goes to the campaign. The image in the ad is a stock photo available on Shutterstock.com with the title “Military silhouettes of soldiers and airforce against the backdrop of sunset sky.” The creator of the image, named “BPTU,” says they are based in Andorra, but did not respond to a Facebook message. The MiG-29, a twin-engine fighter jet designed in the Soviet Union that first flew in 1977, is the Russians’ mainstay fighter jet and has been sold all over the world. It was developed during the Cold War specifically to counter American F-15 and F-16s, and the U.S. even obtained a few to play the adversary in war games. The planes have recently been spotted at a Russian air base in Syria and also Libya. Russia has also exported them to a number of countries, including North Korea, Syria, India and Uzbekistan. Iran also acquired 68 of the MiG-29s at the end of the Soviet Union. In 1997, the U.S. even bought 21 “nuclear-capable” MiG-29 planes from Moldova to keep them from getting in the hands of adversaries such as Iran. The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment. The RNC declined to comment. Politicians have gotten in trouble in the past for running ads or creating content that featured Russian or other countries’ military equipment. Last October, Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) tweeted a picture of the Russian battlecruiser Pyotr Velikiy with the comment: “Happy birthday to the US Navy. To the men and women who serve to keep our waters safe, we thank you.” His office later took the tweet down. Marc Caputo contributed to this report.

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Trump’s campaign is caught between 2 worlds, with 2 months to go

LAS VEGAS — Past presidents running for reelection have built entire campaigns around their incumbency: Events in the Rose Garden. Signing ceremonies in the Oval Office. Cross-country campaign swings on Air Force One. President Donald Trump has used this tactic to his advantage in recent weeks — parking the iconic presidential jet behind the stage at his rallies, turning the executive complex into a high-production venue for the Republican National Convention and unveiling an updated list of potential Supreme Court nominees against the elegant backdrop of the White House Diplomatic Reception Room. But for the wildly unpredictable president, it’s not enough. As Trump sprints toward the finish line in his race against Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, he is waging a campaign with dual personalities. There is the concerned commander in chief, who will spend Monday assessing the wildfires that have devastated California — a state that is bound to hand all 55 of its electoral votes to Biden on Election Day — and who recently initiated a drawdown of American troops in the Middle East and took unilateral action on Sunday to lower drug prices. And there is Trump the perpetual outsider — combative and vicious as ever — who spent the weekend baselessly accusing his opponent of drug abuse, praising the fatal shooting of a murder suspect with antifa ties as “retribution,” and assuring voters that the coronavirus pandemic had “rounded a corner” even as the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 creeps toward 200,000. The outcome is a reelection campaign caught between two worlds in the two months left before voters decide Trump’s fate. For as often as Trump has shown a desire to use the trappings of the presidency in a conventional way, he has muddled, upstaged and at times completely derailed those efforts with profoundly unorthodox tactics that most of his supporters adore. The jarring contrast was on full display most recently as the president, in a span of 24 hours, went from commending the “courage and resolve” of Flight 93 passengers in a 9/11 anniversary speech from the site of their death in Shanksville, Pa., to claiming that Biden is on performance-enhancing drugs. “I think there’s probably — possibly — drugs involved,” Trump told Fox News’ Jeanine Pirro in an interview that aired Saturday night. “That’s what I hear. I mean, there’s possibly drugs.” The president’s unfounded claim about his opponent aired after his campaign rally in nearby Minden, Nev., where he vowed to become “vicious” in the remaining weeks before the November election. “I don’t have to be nice anymore,” he declared. One Trump campaign official said it was unclear where the drug abuse charges against Biden, whom the president has accused of lacking the mental acuity to hold office, originated. The same official described Trump’s comments as counterproductive ahead of the first presidential debate, on Sept. 29. The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment. “What you see is the president elevating Biden to a cartoonish level to distract from the naked, cartoonish failure of presidential leadership that is still unfolding,” said Roger Fisk, a former top campaign aide to President Barack Obama. Many Trump allies don’t seem to mind the split approach he’s taken to campaigning for reelection. In their view, it’s a brilliant way to furnish the sound bites and insults that will boost turnout among his core supporters on Election Day, while also giving campaign aides the material they need to craft messages that are tailored to demographics he’s struggling with — including women and suburban and senior voters. For example, just as the president was gloating about withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord during his Saturday rally in Minden, his aides were locking in plans for his Monday visit to Sacramento, Calif., where he will meet with local and federal personnel and likely highlight the disaster declaration he issued for the state in late August. “It’s crazy what’s going on,” Trump said of the California wildfires during his Sunday night rally in Henderson, Nev. “I’m going there tomorrow. You want forest management.” The president’s campaign event here in Clark County underscored the defiance that remains at the center of his political career and that is complicating his bid for reelection. The indoor rally, which was held at a manufacturing facility just outside Vegas, featured thousands of maskless supporters crowded together — a likely violation of Nevada’s Covid-19 rules against large gatherings. On Tuesday, Trump will host a signing at the White House for the Abraham Accords, a pair of peace agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Israel and Bahrain. Though he is likely to wear his presidential hat for the historic diplomatic occasion, Trump will be back in campaign mode later that evening for a televised ABC News town hall with undecided voters in Philadelphia. (At a town hall in June, the president claimed that Chicago’s crime rate was “worse than Afghanistan” and teased out a potential pardon for his former associate Roger Stone.) The Tuesday town hall could become a distraction from the signing ceremony that Trump will preside over hours before he arrives in Pennsylvania. A near fatal ambush of two police deputies in Compton, Calif., by a lone gunman over the weekend has given the president fresh fodder for his tough-on-crime campaign message. Trump has put the protection of law enforcement at the center of his reelection bid in the wake of nationwide demonstrations over police brutality and systemic racism.

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Pompeo to resume 'Madison Dinners' despite controversy

They’ve been criticized by Democrats as a questionable use of taxpayer dollars, upset State Department employees skeptical of their diplomatic value, and postponed for months due to the coronavirus pandemic. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is bringing back the Madison Dinners anyway. The gatherings are set to resume with a dinner Monday and at least three more during September and October, two State Department officials told POLITICO. Prior to the pandemic shelving them this past spring, roughly two dozen such dinners had been held since Pompeo became secretary of State in April 2018. It’s not clear who’s been invited to the upcoming dinners, which previously were not listed on Pompeo’s public schedule and thus largely unknown to the public. The current guest lists are being closely guarded by a small group of State Department officials as well as by Pompeo’s wife, Susan, who is deeply involved in organizing the dinners. The Pompeos are currently under investigation by the State Department inspector general’s office over whether they used department resources for personal reasons. State Department legal advisers signed off on the dinners, but critics suspect the guest lists — which NBC News first reported included major GOP financiers and media luminaries— are designed to help Mike Pompeo build his political network and donor base ahead of potential future runs for office. Asked for comment Sunday on the resumption of the dinners, the State Department’s public affairs office sent along the same statement it has been using for months to respond to inquiries on the topic. In it, State spokesperson Morgan Ortagus defends the events as a way to promote the mission of the State Department among influential figures in the “finest tradition” of U.S. diplomacy. Ortagus also promises that the dinners would continue. Mike Pompeo, meanwhile, has dismissed accusations of wrongdoing against him and his wife. His allies have argued that it’s perfectly normal — desirable, even — for a secretary of State to engage a variety of individuals in the department’s diplomatic work. But the return of the dinners has led to some grumbling among State officials. Although the dinners usually are intimate affairs, they require significant staffing, and department employees are worried about the public health implications given the Covid-19 crisis. The pandemic has killed nearly 200,000 Americans, with hundreds still dying each day, but President Donald Trump and his aides have been downplaying the crisis ahead of November’s presidential election. The caseload has shrunk in Washington, D.C., but city rules still urge people to practice social distancing and mandate mask-wearing, including when inside a building open to the public. It’s not clear whether those rules apply to federal facilities such as the State Department, whose workforce is still largely operating remotely. Some State Department employees also said they still question the diplomatic value of the dinners. They noted that those held in the past included hardly any State Department officials beyond the secretary, and few foreign diplomats. Instead, invitees were generally prominent figures from well beyond the foreign policy realm, including many from the corporate or entertainment and media worlds, as well as conservative lawmakers and thought leaders. (Robert Allbritton, the publisher and owner of POLITICO, attended a Madison Dinner.) One State Department official called the return of the dinners “frustrating.” “Dozens of department employees who support these dinners, from security officers to catering staff who prepare the food, facilities management and protocol staff, do not have the option to work these events remotely or turn down an assignment,” the official said. At least two of the upcoming dinners will be held during the main week of the United Nations General Assembly, although that gathering is largely virtual this year. Those dinners are planned for Sept. 23 and Sept. 24. Monday’s dinner comes as Bahraini, United Arab Emirates and Israeli officials are heading to Washington for a White House ceremony recognizing the two Arab countries’ decision to normalize relations with Israel. It’s not clear, however, whether any of those foreign officials have been invited to a Madison Dinner. A fourth such dinner may take place on Oct. 20, the two State Department officials said. The dinners usually have been held in the State Department’s swanky diplomatic reception rooms, in particular one named after James Madison.

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United CEO sees low air travel until a widely available vaccine

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said on Sunday that, while he believes it’s safe to fly now, he doesn't see air travel returning to pre-pandemic levels until a coronavirus vaccine is developed and widely distributed. “Our view is, demand is not coming back, people are not going to get back and travel like they did before until there is a vaccine that’s been widely distributed and available to a large portion of the population,” Kirby said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “I hope that happens sooner, but our guess is that's the end of next year.” Airlines have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic, which has decimated demand for both leisure and business travel amid safety concerns and as other countries bar American travelers. Specifically, Kirby touted United’s partnership with cleaning products firm Clorox and studies the company is conducting on air filtration in its airliner cabins. Some sectors of the economy may be able to bounce back before a coronavirus vaccine is widely distributed, Kirby said, but the aviation industry is not one of them. Without an extension of funds for airlines in March’s CARES Act by Oct. 1, Kirby predicted about 16,000 layoffs at his company. The airline chief said international travel, which represents half of United’s revenue, was still badly lagging and that business travel was almost nonexistent. “In a business like ours, demand is not going to come back until people feel safe being around other people, and that's going to take a vaccine,” Kirby said. Appearing separately Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm, asked to explain recent comments by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci that Americans would need to “hunker down” in the coming months, predicted it would take months of vaccine distribution to have a meaningful effect on the American population. “When the vaccine does become available, it won't be in any meaningful way until the beginning of next year, and then it's still going to take us months to vaccinate the population of just this country,” said Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “We really have another 12 to 14 months of a really hard road ahead of us,” he added.

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Trump fumes over Biden ad, media coverage at Nevada rally

MINDEN, Nev. – President Donald Trump set the tone early on at his rally in northern Nevada Saturday night, warning that he was prepared to "be really vicious" in the final weeks of the presidential campaign. Fuming over a new ad about his alleged disparagement of U.S. military personnel, Trump arrived here with a torrent of insults ready to go. “Pathetic Joe. He’s a pathetic human being to allow that to happen,” Trump said of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and the ad Biden's campaign released last week, which seized on comments Trump reportedly made about America’s fallen soldiers. “But you know the good part?” Trump continued. “Now I can be really vicious. Once I saw that ad, I don’t have to be nice anymore.” The president also claimed Biden, “doesn’t know he’s alive.” “Sleepy Joe Biden. You know where he is now? He’s in his damn basement again,” Trump told the crowd. He accused Nevada’s Democratic governor of trying to “rig the election,” after Trump campaign officials were forced to move the Saturday night rally out of Reno, Nev. due to Covid-19 restrictions forbidding large crowds in the state. And he charged his political opponents with trying to “hurt” efforts to develop a coronavirus vaccine. The president also said the only way he would lose the election in November is if Democrats "rig" it. Trump’s fiery appearance at an airport hangar in Douglas County, which he carried by more than 30 percentage points in 2016, capped off a turbulent week for his reelection campaign, with aides left to play defense after taped interviews emerged of the president admitting to downplaying the dangers of Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, when the virus first reached the United States. Upon landing in the Silver State, Trump told reporters the pandemic is “rounding the corner” and repeated his unlikely claim that a vaccine will be available before the end of the year. But coronavirus seemed far from the president’s mind when he stood before supporters on Saturday, railing against “bird cemeteries” that accumulate beneath wind turbines, dismissing concerns about “lock her up” chants that remain a staple of his rallies, and claiming Biden will be praised for his performance at the first presidential debate as long as he “gets off the stage” safely. It was an odd sequence of attacks for the president to offload in Nevada, where his campaign is attempting to court enough Hispanic voters to overcome the razor-thin margin he lost the state by in 2016 — and potentially offset losses elsewhere. The president’s campaign has spent months devising a backup plan that could get him to 270 electoral votes should he lose one or more of the Rust Belt states he flipped four years ago, focusing heavily on areas where his law-and-order message could break through and where polling shows marginal growth in his minority support. Nevada is among the locations his campaign is targeting as they work to rebuild enthusiasm around his handling of the U.S. economy and solidify his support with Hispanic voters. Coronavirus-related lockdowns decimated the local economy in Las Vegas this summer after casinos and hotels were forced to shutter in accordance with statewide restrictions on large gatherings and indoor services. In Reno, doors were shut at local casinos for nearly two months this summer creating a major loss in room tax revenue across the industry. Along with Arizona, where the president is traveling on Monday, Nevada is also a state where campaign aides believe Trump’s expanded Latino support could make a difference in November. Latinos account for roughly 19 percent of Nevada’s eligible voting population. Towards the end of his winding, nearly two-hour remarks Saturday night, the president nodded towards Hispanic voters' pivotal role in the state and, potentially, the country, touting a poll that he claimed showed he is leading Biden among that block of voters In reality, Biden is leading Trump by double-digits among Hispanics nationally, although a Marist-NBC survey released Wednesday showed Trump with a 4-point edge among Hispanic voters in Florida. That's raised questions about a potential tectonic shift in Hispanic support toward the incumbent Republican, after Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried two-thirds of Florida Hispanics in 2016. And it's another reason for alarm among Democrats, some of whom have been criticizing the Biden campaign for months for their lack of effort in Hispanic communities in Florida, Arizona and Nevada. Until September, the Trump campaign had outspent Biden on Spanish-language television. The Biden campaign, however, recently told POLITICO it had increased its ad spending, surpassing Trump on Spanish-language channels last week, and also beefed up its Hispanic-outreach staff. One official involved with the Trump campaign claimed the president’s support among Hispanic voters nationally has reached 30 to 35 percent in some internal polls, though the official declined to share the data with POLITICO. Trump allies have a number of rationales for his rise in popularity among Hispanics. Some claim the pre-pandemic economy, which saw the Hispanic unemployment rate hit a record low of 3.9 percent a year ago, helped more Hispanics feel comfortable supporting the president, despite his record of racially insensitive rhetoric and policies. Others believe Biden has embraced policy positions that alienate Hispanic Catholics and workers in parts of Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Trump suggested Saturday night he would do well with Hispanic voters in November because they "like tough people, they like people who are going to produce jobs. And by the way Hispanics know the border better than anyone."

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Pence drops plan to go to fundraiser hosted by QAnon backers

BILLINGS, Mont. — Vice President Mike Pence has canceled plans to attend a Trump campaign fundraiser in Montana following revelations that the event's hosts had expressed support for the QAnon conspiracy theory. President Donald Trump's reelection campaign told The Associated Press on Saturday that Pence's schedule had been changed, but the campaign did not provide a reason or say whether the fundraiser might be held at a later time. The change comes after the AP reported Wednesday that hosts Cayrn and Michael Borland in Bozeman, Montana, had shared QAnon memes and retweeted posts from QAnon accounts. The baseless conspiracy theory alleges Trump is battling an entrenched bureaucracy and sex trafficking ring run by pedophiles. Three Republicans seeking election in Montana also had been scheduled to attend the fundraiser: U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, who faces a November challenge from Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock; U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte, a Republican running for governor; and state auditor Matt Rosendale, a candidate for the U.S. House. The Borlands have donated over $220,000 to Trump’s reelection bid, the bulk of which was made in Caryn Borland’s name, and they were guests at the national GOP convention last month. The QAnon narrative has grown to include other long-standing conspiracy theories, gaining traction among some extreme Trump supporters. The movement is often likened to a right-wing cult. Some followers have run for office, primarily in the Republican Party, though some have been independent or run as third-party candidates. Trump has refused to say QAnon is false. Pence has said it's a conspiracy theory and last month told CBS, “I don’t know anything about QAnon, and I dismiss it out of hand." The Borlands have shared multiple QAnon social media posts, as well as other discredited conspiracies. Michael Borland prominently featured several QAnon “Q” logos on his Facebook page. Caryn Borland has retweeted or engaged with QAnon Twitter accounts. In April, she responded to a pro-Trump Tweet from a QAnon account by replying “Always” with a praying hands emoji. The Borlands did not immediately return a telephone message Saturday seeking comment.

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Polls show Biden with the advantage in four battleground states

New polls in four key battleground states show Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with the edge over President Donald Trump, including in one of the key states Trump flipped to the Republican column in 2016. A set of New York Times Upshot/Siena College surveys released Saturday had Biden leading Trump in Minnesota, 50 percent to 41 percent, and more narrowly ahead in Wisconsin, 48 percent to 43 percent. The polls show closer races in two more states: Nevada, where the results showed Biden at 46 percent and Trump at 42 percent, and New Hampshire, where Biden had 45 percent to Trump’s 42 percent. Wisconsin was one of three Midwestern states Trump flipped from the Democratic column in 2016 to win the presidency, and the Trump campaign has regularly cited Minnesota as a state it will try to flip this year after a close 2016 win for Hillary Clinton. Clinton also scored narrow wins in Nevada and New Hampshire in the last presidential election. The Times/Siena surveys are about in line with the average of recent poll results in Minnesota and Wisconsin, but they depict tighter races in Nevada and New Hampshire, where there has been less polling this summer — especially in Nevada. Voters in both Minnesota and Wisconsin, two states that have grappled with incidents of police brutality and a summer of protests that followed, said they trusted Biden to do a better job handling race relations, protests and violent crime, despite Trump’s recent efforts to paint Biden as an ally of anarchy and violence. But the surveys also showed that crime is high on many voters’ minds, even compared to the coronavirus pandemic, as Trump focuses on “law and order” as his campaign theme. In Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, voters were split over whether addressing the coronavirus pandemic or law and order was more important in the 2020 election. A majority — 52 percent — of voters in Nevada, which saw its biggest drop in coronavirus cases this week since June, said tackling law and order took precedence over the pandemic. The polls were conducted Sept. 8-11 across the four states, surveying 814 likely voters in Minnesota, 760 likely voters in Wisconsin, 462 likely voters in Nevada and 445 likely voters in New Hampshire. The margins of error ranged from 3.9 percentage points in Minnesota to 5.5 percentage points in New Hampshire.

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Biden courts Black farmers to dent Trump's lead among rural voters

The Biden campaign has spent the summer criticizing discrimination in agriculture, organizing roundtable discussions and tapping former Black government officials in an aggressive push to attract Black farmers, a small but potentially significant slice of the rural vote. Farmers of color, numbering more than 260,000 nationally, make up between 10 and 65 percent of farmers in almost a dozen states, including swing states of Arizona, Florida and Nevada. Many say the focus from Biden is the first time in years a presidential nominee has paid attention to their needs. “I think the Biden campaign is trying to mobilize resources to address each key segment of agriculture. And I didn’t see that before,” said Dewayne Goldmon, executive director of the National Black Growers Council, one of the organizations the campaign has courted. Black farmers have long struggled to get equal access to USDA programs that help build credit and address civil rights complaints. They have pushed the government for more enforcement to retain land that has been in their families for generations at a time when farmers, generally, are facing unprecedented economic headwinds due to the pandemic and trade war disruptions. The Biden campaign has released a plan to work with nonwhite farmers to tackle these issues. “It's no secret to anyone that Black, brown, native farmers have experienced structural exclusion and a variety of obstacles to equal participation in the agricultural sector,” said Seema Sadanandan, a senior policy adviser with the Biden campaign. “The idea here is to continue the pathway forward but also take big leaps and steps in terms of opening up credit and capital for these marginalized farmers.” President Donald Trump’s campaign has declined comment on whether its rural voter strategy includes outreach to nonwhite farmers. Former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did not target minority farmers four years ago. In a Fox News poll in July, 49 percent of rural voters said they supported Trump and 40 percent sided with Biden. That's a much closer margin than 2016 election exit polls, which found Trump earned 61 percent of the rural vote compared to Clinton's 36 percent. John Boyd, president of the National Black Farmers Association, endorsed Biden in March. Boyd said he threw his support behind the former vice president after listening to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue speak at a Wisconsin dairy expo. "In America, the big get bigger and the small go out," Perdue said. "I don't think in America we, for any small business, have a guaranteed income or guaranteed profitability." Boyd said the secretary appeared to be favoring big farmers over small ones, many of which are struggling to survive amid the Covid-19 pandemic and worst economy since the Great Depression. Family farm bankruptcies increased by nearly 20 percent from 2018 to 2019, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. “That statement alone showed us we weren't going to have any type of platform in this administration,” Boyd said. “People like myself have really given up on that. The Trump administration is non-existent so we didn't have a whole lot of choice and we hope things will be better with a Biden/Harris ticket.” Boyd said initial discussions with the Clinton campaign in 2016 were not productive. While “Hillary’s vision for America” was promoted as a comprehensive plan, it excluded any mention of Black farmers, Boyd said. The Trump campaign has formed tangent coalitions, including Blacks Voices for Trump and Farmers and Ranchers for Trump, but neither mentions Black or farmers of color. “It wasn't peaches and cream with the Hillary Clinton campaign,” he said. “They were not aggressive enough to adopt some of our issues.” LaTosha Brown, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, said she believes the Biden approach is a good start and it makes sense to address the needs of nonwhite farmers. “You have to give him some credit. Other previous candidates have not made this a part of the platform,” said Brown, whose organization has targeted rural voters. “It’s worth noting that for him to include this as a part of the campaign, there is a lot of value in that.” Nonwhite farmers have been a focus of the Biden campaign from the start, campaign officials say. Trey Baker, director of African-American engagement for the campaign, said it’s one way the campaign reaches out to all of the Black community. “So many friends and leadership of the campaign are from areas that have really large agricultural sectors. We have people with stakes in this campaign who also recognize how important it is that we address Black farmers,” Baker said. Former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy hosted one of the roundtables to discuss the need for racial equity within USDA, agriculture and rural community policy-making. Espy told participants that he was confident Biden would address access to credit, keeping land in the family and having Black representation on FSA councils and within the department. Kimberly Ratcliff, president of 100 Ranchers, said at the roundtable that her main concern is being able to pass Black farms down through the generations. She said she's convinced that Biden shares her goal. “I think he has been pretty open about how he feels about agriculture and about the importance of having generational wealth. The way I view it, all these are steps to create generational wealth for producers,” Ratcliff told POLITICO. While many are excited about Biden’s focus on Black farmers, some farmers of color argue he does not go far enough. Lawrence Lucas, president of the USDA Coalition of Minority Employees, said in a letter to the campaign, dated Sunday, that his group was disappointed in a lack of “a solution-driven civil rights policy.” The group, which had worked closely with the Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders campaigns, had hoped that Biden would adopt most, if not the all, of the former candidates’ proposals. “We turned to the Biden campaign because we were very optimistic they would come up with a plan similar to the Warren and Sanders campaigns,” Lucas told POLITICO. “We are disappointed because they are a marathon away from those recommendations.” While Warren’s proposal and Biden’s plan address heir’s property and seek to create an equity commission, Warren’s addresses issues related to the landmark Pigford civil rights lawsuit settlement, more of the USDA's civil rights office and local county committees. “Improve the plan and make it more comprehensive to systemically change USDA once and for all,” Lucas said. “If they can do it why can’t he? I do feel as though if it was important enough for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, why haven’t they?” Goldmon, of the Black Growers Council, said the leadership of his group supports the Biden campaign’s strategies to address systemic racism in agriculture. A priority for the campaign should be addressing chronic issues, including access to USDA loans and programs, he said. According to a study by Data for Progress, farmers of color were often denied loans and credit, lacked access to legal defense against fraud and experienced “outright acts of violence and intimidation,” causing a 90 percent loss of Black-owned farm land from 1910 to 1998. While the number of white farmers has stayed around 3 million since 1910, the number of farmers of color has fallen from more than 940,000 to 267,941, accounting for about 8 percent of farmers. That includes 21,267 in Arizona, 21,294 in New Mexico and 12,156 in Florida, according to the 2017 Agricultural Census. “You're dealing with a profession that's still for the large part multigenerational, capital intensive, and so my father and grandfather missed out on opportunities that their white neighbors didn't,” Goldmon said. “It’s common sense to know that the farm that I inherited is still going to be less capitalized than the farms it's growing alongside and, a lot of times, competing against.” Lloyd Wright, a Black farmer and former director of the USDA Office of Civil Rights, said the Biden campaign is smart to focus on nonwhite farmers. Wright chairs the Rural Farming Working Group, an informal network of formal USDA employees that meets once a month to get USDA to address the plight of Black farmers. Wright said his group is “100 percent” committed to getting Biden elected. “I fall with those who say we should give him credit for including some minority farmers in this policy. I am less concerned with the policy than I am with the implementation of policy,” he said. “We are ready to move onto the next step of getting the right people into positions in the department to implement policy.”

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Trump's payroll tax deferral nixed for House employees

House employees won’t have their payroll taxes deferred under President Donald Trump’s recent order, a top House official said Friday in the latest setback for the administration's ill-received plan. The temporary tax deferral "would not be in the best interests of the House or our employees," Philip G. Kiko, the chamber's chief administrative officer, wrote in a memo, adding that the House Administration Committee concurred. Democrats have been sharply critical of the deferral, which applies to the 6.2 percent tax workers pay for Social Security. Employers, who deduct the tax from workers' paychecks, can choose to participate in the deferral or not. It wasn't immediately known what the Republican-controlled Senate will do. The deferral, which is available for workers earning less than $104,000 a year, was one of several unilateral moves Trump made in August that he said would boost the coronavirus-battered economy. But the administration has had a hard time convincing private-sector employers to take part in the plan. Companies are concerned it is too risky or complicated, especially if Congress doesn't ultimately excuse workers from having to pay back the taxes when the deferral expires at the end of the year. Kiko raised similar concerns, citing recent Treasury Department guidelines. "The taxes are deferred, and absent subsequent action by Congress, employees still owe, and employers are still required to collect the taxes," he wrote. "Starting in January of 2021, employers would be required to begin withholding taxes from paychecks at higher rates to fully collect the tax owed by April 30, 2021." "Like all pay disbursing officials, the CAO must weigh the benefit of the deferral against the challenges of implementing this change and the practical impacts to the House workforce." The administration recently announced that the deferral would be applied to the paychecks of executive branch employees and the military. They’d have to repay their obligations next year unless Congress makes the deferral permanent. Some GOP lawmakers have said they would like to hold back payroll taxes for their staffers under Trump’s directive. Kiko’s office didn’t immediately respond when asked if his decision was binding across all House offices. But a Democratic staffer said it removes the option for Republican lawmakers, unless they get Kiko to alter his decision or create an exception. The administrative office has total control over payroll and would have to be directly involved in any kind of deferral, the staffer said.

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Voting machine hearing hijacked by images of 9/11, swastikas and porn

A federal hearing on a challenge to Georgia's voting machines was interrupted Friday when someone began posting video and symbols, including images from the Sept. 11 attacks, a swastika and pornography. Before the interruption, there were roughly 100 people signed in as participants and observers to the high-profile hearing. During testimony by a voting machine company executive, at least two people — one with the user name Osama — began posting rapidly changing videos and still images, some accompanied by music, by sharing their screens with the video conference. The court quickly ended the Zoom session. It was not immediately clear when or how the hearing would resume. The hearing in the long-running fight over Georgia's voting machines began Thursday and continued Friday morning. Election integrity activists and individual voters who filed the lawsuit say Georgia's voting machines are unaccountable and unverifiable and have security vulnerabilities. They've asked U.S. District Judge Amy Totenberg to order the state to use hand-marked paper ballots for the November election. State officials argue that the new machines have been thoroughly tested and that security measures will prevent problems. They also say it would be costly and too difficult to make a switch with so little time remaining before the general election.