Mat in Japan

[matinjapan]

Public Strain

It’s an album by a band from Calgary called Women. I’ve been playing it a lot recently. The closing track in particular and the emotional release that comes with the riff that kicks in with two minutes to go, keeps drawing me back. Easily up there with any of the best closing tracks for an album that I can think of.

The more I listen to it though, the more I’m appreciating all that comes beforehand. Multiple moments of melody within the noise and reverb. Not necessarily the easiest listen, but if you have the time, it’s super rewarding.

Its emotional punch is probably heightened from the mythology of the band. A literal punch-up on stage while they were touring the album caused them to part ways for good. And then tragically, the guitarist (Chris Reimer) died from complications from a heart condition not long after. He was 26.

I’m not sure if it’s Chris playing the riff at the end of the album. But I’m pretty sure it is. And I guess when you combine the atmosphere of the album with the tragedy of him dying so young, the record just carries this incredible weight. And man, that final riff with a slow fade out. Wow.

Anyway, a quick little insight to what I’ve been listening to.

On more day-to-day type things, it’s basically peak-Tokyo right now. Humidity has fallen away, and so too, the temps. Basically perfect for bike riding, running, or anything outside really. Only problem is that I’m still stuck in the middle of a vast concrete megalopolis. Have been riding quite a bit, but it’s never too fun navigating endless Tokyo traffic, and that’s even with most drivers being super courteous to bike riders.

I do occasionally get out of the city. Last month I hired a van and spent a good chunk of time in Hakuba. Kind of a weird, ghost town vibe once the sun went down (COVID still casting it’s long shadow). But during the day time, there was a good number of hikers, mountain bikers, etc. around. The mountains were super steep and green, and had a similar vibe to many other swanky ski towns the world over. Maybe not on the uber chic level of somewhere like Aspen, but still very much a $22-fancy-burger-type-town.

More recently, I managed to escape the city to a place called Mizugaki for some climbing and camping. Super sunny days, like Tokyo, but it was freezing! Not helped by me not realising just how cold it would be. The only times I wasn’t cold was when I was on the rock and climbing, and also during the nightly trip to the onsen. Welcome relief for sure, but definitely not enough warmth to see me through the night. Despite the cold, was still a great trip. Also went climbing closer to the coast in Maku Iwa more recently. Much more bearable temps at sea level rather than at 2000m!

Anyway, a few pictures from the adventuring. All for now!

Sayonara.

[matinjapan]

Slow times in Shizuoka

Japan has the equivalent of an Easter and Anzac Day public holiday double up every year. Essentially four public holidays very close to each other known as Golden Week. It’s normally a holiday bonanza with half the population making use of the time off to take off to far flung places. But this year, like last year, there was another state of emergency, and so most people just hung out. Played Nintendo?

Sans Nintendo, I bought a surfboard, rented a van for a week, and headed south-east to Shizuoka. It’s one of the closest prefectures to Tokyo, with a massive peninsula and then an additional few hundred kilometres of a protected east, and south facing, coastline.

The drive from central Tokyo is only about a hundred kilometres to the beginning of the peninsula (Izu), but it can take longer than 3 hours to get there. Toll ways are quicker, but they make the M5 and M7 in Aus seem like a good deal. When I initially picked up the van about 30 kilometres from my apartment, I drove back on a few toll segments to grab my gear. Was probably only 10 kilometres, but it ended up costing 2,300 yen or about 30 Aussie bucks. Ouch.

Driving across Japan on toll ways would easily cost many hundreds of dollars and would still be slower going than the average speed you’d achieve on Australia’s highways. Given that I wasn’t in any real rush, I mostly stuck with non-toll roads. A whole heap of 50 zones, one after the other. But, according to the guy I rented the van off, you can go 15, even 20 km/h above the signposted limit. Not sure why, but I was happy to oblige. Also, I don’t think there’s really any speed cameras. Cops pull you over if you’re engaging in Tokyo drift type antics, but I think because most people over here drive like Daisy, it’s a rare occurrence to have a brush with the law.

Anyway, from Tokyo to the Izu peninsula is basically like driving along a coastal Parramatta road. You never quite get to undeveloped, untouched coastline like you would in Aus. Along the way, there’s continuous small groupings of little villages, small farmland plots, or industrial infrastructure for 100s of kilometres. And I think that’s the case for most of Japan’s coastline. It’s only when you head inland that you’d experience the equivalent of an unpopulated ‘outback’, so to speak.

For the first night, I made it to a place called Jogasaki. There’s some really amazing coastline that is great for (crack) climbing. I had already sampled a few locations in recent months with a few people so I kind of knew the area a little. Picturesque, definitely, but no real surf breaks; just rugged, rocky coastline. For the second day though, I kept heading south down the Izu peninsula, which slowly starts to get less and less developed and is home to some pretty nice beaches.

The area south of Jogasaki is pretty amazing. Reminds me of Brazil, with super mountainous, lush green hills rising out of the ocean. Like much of Brazil, there’s built environment everywhere. But many of the houses and businesses are in disrepair or derelict. Some of the hotels in particular look like they would have been super luxurious about four decades ago. Now, most places just look a bit tired. There’s definitely a post-apocalyptic vibe too, with the extent to which the greenery overgrows everything. Don’t think there’s too many council workers with whipper snippers in Izu.

Anyway, near the southern tip of Izu is a place called Shirahama. Small surf off a point kept me occupied for multiple days. Good thing about the state of emergency was that there was nowhere near as many people as there would have been without the pandemic.

This trip was the first time I’d surfed since I left Aus, so the small surf was ideal for me to ease back in. I bought a 5’11” with a good amount of volume and it was pretty good for the small waves rolling off the point. After some pretty fun days in the surf, the swell had completely died, and so I decided to head up the peninsula and around to the far west side of Shizuoka, to a place called Omaezaki.

Initial impression was that it wasn’t as idyllic as Shirahama. The south facing strip of coast was a blown-out mess. A windsurfer’s delight. But protection around a prominent point meant there was some pretty surfable waves at a place called Susuki. But it was only really surfable because the south swell was so massive, with enough power to wrap into the (very) protected bay.

The coastline felt a lot more industrial near Omaezaki, with less of the mountainous, tropical vibe, but even so, the place kind of grew on me. The hinterland was mostly farm acre’age with what looked like tea crops. Almost like English heritage style hedges growing side by side by side. There were also some large sand dune areas, and quite a few large wind turbines and solar panel installations, so it’s not as if it was the industrial landscape of yore.

The piece de resistance though, was the massive nuclear power plant between the protected east facing bay and the wilder south facing coast. Nestled in the sand dunes, hopefully ready to withstand the next big tsunami. I’m definitely a fan of nuclear power, but being so close to one was a little unnerving. Anyway, Omaezaki was cool, but Shirahama was undoubtedly cooler. The absence of industrial what-have-you’s is hard to beat.

On one of the later days, I ended up surfing on one of the south facing beaches. It was hard work. Onshore, and a severe lack of paddle fitness meant that I basically used all of my energy just to try not to drown. Wasn’t even that big, but there were some pretty gnarly currents and rips to contend with.

Van life for a week was definitely a welcome change from Tokyo. I’ve definitely been suffering from COVID fatigue, and that’s even with getting out for climbing, riding, and now surfing trips most weekends. City living, when everyone is in limited interaction mode just kind of sucks. And while things like surfable waves seems so close on Google (only about 70 kilometres away), it takes freakin forever to get there. About 3 hours on the trains, and not much quicker if you rent a car. So yeah, what I’ve learnt is that living in one of the biggest megalopolises during a pandemic is less than ideal.

Anyway, hopefully Japan pulls their finger out and starts vaccinating in earnest. Maybe the impending Olympics will be the impetus they need? Can only hope. In any case, a few shots from the week away attached.

Sayonara.

[matinjapan]

A treatise on markets

Back when I lived in Vancouver, I was living the unemployed dream. Not quite right: I was working at a driving range a few days a week, and during winter I was one of the ‘Mountain Safety’ crew up at Whistler one day a week. So, the employed dream?

Even though I had a job, it felt like I was unemployed. The golf range gig was very cruisy. Involved hanging out in a booth/shed selling ball tokens, hitting a whole heap of balls, and then driving a tractor to pick up said balls every so often. Was probably the best job I’ve ever had, all for CAD 10 an hour. The volunteer gig with Whistler was similarly cruisy. We got to head up to the top of the mountain about an hour before the mountain opened, and then make our way down, setting-up go slow signs as we went. We then just cruised around the mountain for the rest of the day with walkie talkie‘s, attending to collisions, injuries (including occasional heli-evacs!), lost kids, or whatever other problems or mishaps occurred.

The Whistler gig was actually home to one of my many shameful moments: I fell asleep on the job. Super cold, bluster’y day and I lingered on a couch in a breakout area for a bit longer than I should have, after coming in for a bite to eat. I woke dazed and confused to one of the lead dudes accosting me. He wasn’t too impressed. Woops!

I was pretty lucky to not get fired. A few of the regulars I normally boarded with, put in a good word for me, rightly or wrongly.

Anyway, the main point of this ramble is that I wasn’t particularly obligated in terms of having to turn up at a workplace. And while it’d be easy to think that that would mean I’d settle into a life of midday TV, and naps (substantiated by me falling asleep while working!), that didn’t really happen. Instead, I ended up delving pretty deeply into trading (I also had quite a lot of naps).

Like most people, I’m generally pretty keen to acquire currency. And especially so, when it requires as little time tied to an employer as possible. At that time, I was still making money playing poker (that’s another venture that I was spending considerable time on), but it was becoming increasingly difficult. The supply of new (read: bad) players was waning, and the online poker houses were squeezing more and more of a cut from the diminishing player pool.

I knew that poker wasn’t something that I’d do forever. Trading seemed like a worthwhile pivot, with quite a few similarities related to bank roll management and psychology.

Over the course of about 6 months, I spent a lot of time at the Downtown library reading books about the history of markets, biographies of famous traders, trading strategies, the psychology of trading; whatever I could find, really.

A lot of the stuff I was reading was great context. And certain books were great at explaining the technical aspects of different things you could trade, such as options or futures. But once you learn all that stuff (which I never fully mastered), you were really only at the level of knowing the rules of the game. Kind of like knowing that a flush beats a straight; or the probability of hitting an inside straight draw is 8%, etc. It’s the framework that you need to know inside out before even beginning to develop a strategy.

And strategy is where things get difficult. It’s compounded by the overwhelming amount of chaff to wade through when you’re trying to figure out an approach. There’s no shortage of people trying to sell you their expertise and insight, but unfortunately, almost all is crap. Those who can, do. And those who can’t, teach, sums it up pretty nicely.

Anyway, the more I looked into it, the more daunting the prospect of trading became. On a surface level, it was clear that a select (yet diverse) group of people were able to be incredibly successful. But that assessment is like finding out that top basketball players get paid millions of dollars, and so deciding to start working on your free throw for the upcoming draft. Easy money.

There’s also the idea that those that are successful, are successful because they’ve superior intellectual fire power. They’re just better than the competition and naturally rise to the top. Many successful traders and the hedge funds they found, or are attached to, have this quality. But that’s not necessarily true for a substantial portion of them. Success is often tied to unscrupulous methods to extract surplus returns.

What’s more, to trade from home, both facilitated by, and against, the might of large financial institutions, banks, hedge funds, etc., you’re at a distinct disadvantage. Investing for the long-term is one thing. But to actively trade on a more short-term basis with a slower connection, less competitive spreads, less information, less computing power is not a great starting point, to put it mildly.

From when I was playing poker, people used to throw around stats that about 90% of online poker player accounts lost money. And then the next few percent were break even or modest winners at best. It was really only the top few percent that made all the money. I’m not sure what it is for retail trader’s, but I suspect the statistics are even more extreme.

So that’s essentially where I got to with trading. Super fascinating, but ultimately something I didn’t pursue. The reason why it’s come to the fore of my thinking in the last little while is that I’m still a sucker for the promise of ‘easy’ (read: not easy) money. Surplus time at home from the state of emergency and the GameStop saga of the last few months has fuelled my interest again. But I’ve quickly arrived at a similar conclusion to what I did a decade ago. If anything, it seems the playing field has only skewed more. And that’s despite the introduction of platforms such as Robinhood.

I’ve actually just finished reading the book about Enron: Smartest guys in the room. The book paints an amazing picture of just how corrupt the financial system was, and still is. Until I read the book, I always thought it was about the fraudulent misdeeds of a few people in one company. But it’s instead an indictment of capital markets in general, as facilitated by Wall Street.

And yet still I’m drawn to trading. Ha!

No, probably not trading. But investing, which has a longer time frame, is something I’m keen to get into more. For the last few years, I’ve been cash heavy (with my limited supply). While there’s not much inflation to speak of, the runaway appreciation in asset prices (damn you, Australian property) has left me in the dust. A flat white might still be $3.50. But a median house in Sydney of about 4 billion dollars kind of stings when you don’t own one.

Though now that I’m thinking about it more, rest assured that the point at which I do put my money in, that will be the top. For housing, I reckon I’ll be keen to buy a place end of 2022. So, Australian property bubble to burst beginning of 2023.

And I’ll just add, beyond property, investing for the long-term has been severely warped over the last few decades. So the game is far from fair, no matter what you do (property, stocks, bonds, commodities, or beanie babies). Thank you, elites (facilitated by political class and central bankers).

Anyway, here’s some pictures from the last little while in Tokyo and surrounds. The weather is starting to turn just about perfect. Some of the Sakura are already blooming, with more to occur over the next month or so. Magical time for all the hayfever sufferers.  

Some quick running updates following an earlier blog: my running has severely stalled from about early December. Slight injury that I think is only now coming good. Good enough to start up’ing my mile’age again, but I’m definitely a ways away from being fit; it’ll be a while before I break any of those goal times, if ever.

But absent running, I’ve finally been climbing again. About 5 times outdoors this year, which has been great. Have lost a lot of strength from when I was climbing in 2019, but I’m keen to also up the climbing efforts too, to change that. Will see if I can simultaneously improve running and climbing at the same time.

Sayonara

[matinjapan]

Forex for a dummy

A bit over three years ago I decided to short the Aussie dollar. I went into it thinking that it’d be a decent money spinner. And eventually, it was. But I failed to capitalise. With zero money to show, all I can say is that I’m at least a little more learned for my troubles.

The ‘investment’ was a punt to profit from an economy that had (and still has) plenty of downside risk. Non-existent wage growth (for over a decade now), world beating private debt burden, a rapidly unwinding commodity boom, and an economy far too reliant on the populous buying and selling homes from and to each other, seemed to all add up to a negative outlook.

But I don’t think I really considered just how well Australia could tread water. In hindsight, a pretty naïve viewpoint given the entire political/business/economic infrastructure is geared towards keeping this bubble inflated for as long as possible.

The initial position I opened was when the AUD to USD exchange rate was about 76 cents. I sold the equivalent of AUD 200,000 and simultaneously bought USD 152,000.

200,000 might sound like a lot. And it is! But in forex, the contract size is kind of immaterial. With margin, you only need a fraction of the entire contract size, and so for my trade, $2,000 (i.e. 1% of the position) was sufficient.

With that amount of leverage, changes in the value of your account can happen quick. For example, if the AUDUSD exchange rate moved to 76.5 cents (the AUD appreciates), the USD 152,000 is still the same, but it’s now only worth about AUD 198,700. The 0.5 cent appreciation in the exchange rate means losing AUD $1,300. For this reason, you want a bit of a safety buffer. E.g. instead of only having $2,000 in your account, $10,000 means the exchange rate can move quite a bit against you before you get margin called. Still means you lose a lot of money though.

I had always intended to hold the position for the long-term or until facts/things change. When I first entered the trade, the exchange rate proceeded to drop to 75 cents. Pretty great to be up early.

But in short shrift, the Aussie reversed and moved beyond 77 cents. Damn.

With the higher exchange rate, I actually wasn’t too worried and saw it as an additional selling opportunity. I increased my position size by another AUD 50,000 at about 77.5 cents.

The AUD then kept moving against me. Kind of annoying, but I just rationalised that it was a great spot to keep increasing my position.

It kept going up.

For all my calculations on how much I’d be willing to lose, I don’t think I had adequately accounted for just how much of a psychological weight it would be to be to be down such a significant amount of coin.

At about the 81 cent level, I decided to eat part of the (significant) losses and downsize my position. It was definitely a miscalculation in terms of how much I was willing to lose. Not so much financially, but psychologically; I just wasn’t prepared to keep seeing my account size dwindle as the AUD kept appreciating to who-knows-what??

…But as is often the case with these types of things, almost as soon as I downsized my position the AUD rally was effectively over.  

Since that high point of about 81 in late 2017, the AUD has remained stubbornly strong. But it (very) gradually fell to the mid-70s and eventually into the high-60s by the time I arrived in Japan in November, 2019.

Having downsized my position to just under AUD 200k, the breakeven point of my trade was no longer 76 cents. It was about 74.5 cents (owing to the fact that my position size was larger on the way up, and smaller on the way down).

But 74.5 cents isn’t really the breakeven. For every day I held the position, I had to pay the differential in interest rates of the US FED and Australian RBA plus a small commission. Those small costs add up over time, and are equivalent to be about 1.5 cents of exchange rate movement per annum. So, after year 1 breakeven moved from 74.5 to 73, and then down to 71.5 after year 2, etc.

Anyway, at the beginning of 2020, I was up. Not a stupendous amount, but not bad. But I had definitely paid less and less attention to it. The position was just sitting there, ticking away. I had thought to increase the size at a few points, but neglected to. Plus, being in Japan, I was adding to my AUD short position via saving yen.

But then everything kind of went crazy. COVID.

Risk off was definitely an understatement. Money was flowing from all corners of the world back to the relative safe haven of the US. In an incredibly short span of time, the AUD moved from the high- to mid-60s, to the low-60s, crashed through into the 50s and looked like it would basically fall forever.

It went all the way down to 55 cents (briefly), and I was up big. But, I didn’t exit. Why exit if it’s going to keep falling, right?

On the subsequent rally, there was always an excellent chance that COVID could kick off again, and that the AUD would start tumbling down again, way past that 55 cent recent low. But, no.  

I had first thought to exit around the mid-60s on its way back up, but still thought that there was an excellent chance the AUD could turn south. Not to be, though. The virus is still wreaking havoc, but the amount of central bank and government stimulus has meant that markets have almost all miraculously recovered (at least for the short-term).

I was still pondering whether to exit the trade. And I finally did when the Reserve Bank released a statement saying that they, unlike all other central banks, would not do anything akin to quantitative easing. The scarcity of the AUD (relative to other money printing crazed central banks) combined with a large amount of China stimulus to buy Aussie Iron ore, meant that the AUD was primed to take-off.

With my trading ego shattered, I closed the trade about 6 weeks ago when the exchange rate was at about 71 cents. Since then, it has rallied to over 74 cents (vindication), but has since fallen back to the 70s. It was actually a relief more than anything to exit the trade. For my 3 years of trouble, my account was up about 100 bucks. Ha, slightly better than a mattress. Needless to say though, my account was a lot larger when the exchange rate was in the 50s!

I’m open to opening the position again. Nothing has really changed about the Australian economy, and so I still think the AUDUSD is headed down over the long-term. But for the minute, the COVID shock will be the most influential factor, and it’s hard to know how things will play out. So, I’m staying out. At least out of forex anyway.

In Japan times, work was actually pretty busy up until a few weeks ago. But I then took a bit over a week off and cycled round Lake Biwa near Kyoto. The weather was actually pretty rubbish, but decent enough for clear riding on a couple of days. I pulled the plug on going the whole way though, once the rain started to plummet.

Unfortunately, no camera. I was trying to travel as light as possible, and with most things I was carrying in a back pack, it wasn’t super waterproof. Really need to get some sort of rack/bag solution, because my shoulders were destroyed after multiple days in the saddle. Despite less than ideal conditions and set-up, it was actually super cool. Some amazing country side that I’m keen to go back and see more of.

The bike has definitely been great to explore Tokyo with, but it’s really only now that the weather is conducive. August and most of September were ridiculous in terms of heat. Couldn’t go anywhere without quickly being drenched in sweat. Right now though, perfect. Will make the most of it before the snow starts to fall. And then make the most of that, too!

Sayonara

[matinjapan]

Tokyo drift

So, I bought a bike. I don’t actually have it yet though; won’t be here until sometime next month. Until I pulled the trigger, it had been at least a couple of months of moderately obsessive researching about which one to get. I would’ve thought COVID might mean there’s surplus stock.

But turns out that bikes are pretty hard to come by at the moment. Supply chains are still obliterated, and at the same time, demand has rocketed. Stimulus cheques combined with people not wanting to have to jump on a bus or train filled with their fellow humans.

I definitely could have bought one from a local shop. There are some amazing steel builds that I’ve come across. Some of them were, and are, really expensive though. And to get it to a spec that I was keen for, the amount of money started to become pretty eye watering.

I even came across what I’m assuming was a titanium track bike (fixie). Beautiful. 2 million yen. Which is not far off 30 thousand Aussie dollars. Or over 35 thousand dollars when the AUD fell off a cliff a few months ago. Needless to say, I restrained myself and didn’t spend quite that much.

I’m actually pretty livid. I stupidly decided to pay for it using my ANZ credit card. Didn’t seem like it would be an issue given that the UK seller offered the bike in AUD at close to spot exchange rates. True to form though, ANZ rolled me. For a simple AUD transaction (via Paypal… another questionable company), they enacted their ‘terms and conditions’ and charged me 3%. They’re basically Tony Soprano with a more up-to-the-minute PR machine.

It’s ludicrous though. Paypal has already eaten into the merchant’s take by some stupid amount. Probably similar to 3% (maybe more?!). And then, ANZ have decided, yep, we’re going to charge you extra as well even though there was no foreign currency exchange. The arrogance of how they operate, as well. Nothing’s off the table. Their contempt for customers was partly uncovered by the Royal Commission. But they got off light; their pos culture is the same as it always has been.

I’m done though. The big-4 are just another contemptible example of the defunct Australian economy. Time to close my accounts for good.

Anyway, leaving my livid’ness aside, at least I’ll be receiving a bike at some point. Which’ll be good, because at the moment, I just don’t see how the pandemic will calm any time soon. A bike is probably the most viable option for me to go do a bit of travelling.

Pretty keen to go on some properly epic rides, too. Up a mountain maybe. Or from one side of Japan to the other. Stuff like that. But for even just getting to relatively close destinations, a decent bike will be super handy to go see stuff without having to venture onto trains, buses, etc.

Even without the luxury of wheels, I decided to embrace some mini-adventuring, and see how far I could walk last weekend. Didn’t get too far. Probably not even 15 kms. But I zig and zagged a fair bit so I think I must’ve covered closer to 25 km (my feet/legs were pretty cooked by the time I jumped on a train back home).

The neighbourhoods I ended up in were pretty different to where I live. A heap more nature mixed in with suburbia. And the green’ness is definitely at a high with all the humidity at the moment. Parts of the suburbs I was walking through even reminded me of Newcastle. Kids burning around on bikes. Small, chilled shopping streets. Nowhere near as trendy as where I currently live, and far fewer high rises, which I liked. Will definitely check out those areas more extensively with said bike.

What else has been happening?

Work has been consistently busy. Still working at home, which I’ve become more and more used to. My running has fallen quite a bit. I think I jinxed myself with talk of too much, too soon in the last blog post. Or more likely, I just did too much, too soon. Took a few weeks off due to a sore’ish foot, but now starting to ramp (slowly) again.

Tokyo COVID cases are starting to increase again. But the authorities are fine with it. They’ve even kept to their plans to continue opening things. I think that baseball is even a go’er. Crowd sizes will be limited, but the fact that there’ll be crowds of any size speaks to their optimism. Pretty keen to check out a game. Sinking beers in a grandstand with only a passing notion of what’s happening seems alright to me.

Oh, mask wearing. I’ve relented and joined my Japanese comrades for whenever I have to set foot inside a store, restaurant, etc. Most places don’t actually let you inside unless you have a mask, so it’s kind of hard to get by without one. For times where I’m outside without needing to go inside (walking, running, etc.) I still don’t bother.

I think it’s without question that there’s a lessening impact on the transmission rate by having everyone wearing masks. But it’s at least partly like airport security; a good deal of theatre. Especially when you see plenty of people with the covering down on their neck while they eat or drink, or to just have a breather. And while the cases are somewhat high every day, they’re not crazy high. I just don’t think most people are in virus rich environments for much time, if at all. But, safe rather than sorry and all that.

I think I’ll leave it at there for now. Have been a bit lazy the last few months with blogging, but that’s partly because I’m busy at work. And partly because I’m not doing a whole heap. Will endeavour to rectify the latter.

Sayonara.

[matinjapan]

4:41

It’s not even close to summer, and that’s what time the sun came up this morning. Ridiculous.

To compound this ridiculousness, I no longer have heavy-set curtains on my windows. With each dawn of the last few weeks, I’ve been treated to progressively earlier and earlier streams of sunlight. There’s something kind of great about getting up early in the morning. But not 4am. I think a return of the heavy curtain is my only option (if not for the light, for the impending heat).

This time of year is actually perfect weather wise in Tokyo; mid-20s when it’s sunny, cool breezes when it’s breezy, and not much pollen anymore… smattering of killer viruses, though. But, even with these perfect conditions, the city can still feel pretty hot, when it’s not. Once the 30s start to arrive, it’s going to get to be pretty excruciating.

I’ve air con at the apartment. And while I don’t like heat, I’m going to avoid turning the thing on for as long as possible. I like to keep my carbon footprint to seven or so equivalent earths, rather than eight.

In recent news, this week has been a bit of a holiday, which has been cool. Well, as cool as a holiday that consists of not leaving the five or so kilometre radius traced out from my apartment, can be. A holiday filled with Youtube, scotch, lying on the floor, and contemplating my existence. I actually ended up doing work for a while. I’m writing the APEC coal report. Super interesting to learn of all different aspects of something that’s so good for humanity (and basically coming to terms with just how screwed we all are).

Anyway, the holiday. It was five days off over the course of about ten (working days). Kind of like a Super Easter back home. The one’s where Anzac days get pulled into the mix. Like I said, it has been good to have time off, but I think I’m definitely experiencing fits and spurts of cabin fever. Not debilitating or anything. It’s just quiet. A bit too quiet.

To distract myself, I’ve started running. I’d like to be running more, but I’ve done too much, too soon, too often. So I’m trying to pace myself this time around. It’s been a good eighteen months since I was running consistently, and yeah, wow, the difference in effort required to propel myself forward is noticeable. May as well have taken up a pack-a-day smoking.

Nevertheless, in the spirit of maximising running’s distractive qualities, I’ve been mulling some loose goals.

The short list so far includes a 5-minute mile. This one is pretty good evidence that cabin fever has taken hold. There’s probably an equal chance of me flying to the moon. I mean, it’s no 4-minute mile, but best I can tell is it’s still proper elite, and there’s a decent likelihood I’ll never do it no matter how many kilometres I lay waste.

Next on the list is an 18-minute 5k. This is more realistic than the 5-minute mile, but is still very pie in the sky. I managed low 19s about a year-and-a-half ago. But I first need to get back to where I was, and then put in a whole other level of effort to go sub-18. Again, this might be out of reach.

Then, 40-minute 10k. I’m pretty confident that this is something I can do with the right amount of training. For sure, not easy, but I reckon easier than 18-minute 5k. Then, a 90-minute half marathon. Again, yep, seems do’able. Probably easier than the 10k goal.

Finally though, is a 3hr 30min marathon. Time wise, I think this one might actually be the most achievable. But that’s assuming that I put in a sufficient amount of training. The pace is quick, but it’s not other-worldly. The problem for the marathon, best I can tell (have never done one), is that it’s really difficult to build up conditioning that allows you to smash out the entire 42 k’s at a threshold effort. Most people seem to do well for that initial 30 or so k’s and then proceed to die for the last ten or so.

I’d be progressively more stoked with the times I’ve come up with for the shorter and shorter distances. But there’s a certain amount of mythology with the marathon that the other distances just can’t compete with. So yeah, the marathon and accompanying time goal is the standout for me, at the moment.  

I think I’m just going to leave them all floating in the ether. The main thing to achieving any and/or all of them will be to keep running. And with the current state of the world, running a whole lot to achieve an arbitrary time goal over an arbitrary distance seems… why not? As flippant as I’m being, I do enjoy running. Especially that feeling of depletion. Where you’re exhausted, but it feels kind of good.

Biggest hurdle will be that within a month, it’ll be summer. It’ll be hot. And the prospect of running even 200 metres will be about as appealing as jamming a fork in my foot. Running at 4am might be my only realistic option to get miles in without a dose of heatstroke. And I’m not sure if that’s going to fly with my early morning self. Will see.

With that, I’m out. Except for, recent listenings: Bitte Orca (2009). Excellent.  

Photos are from wanderings around near home, and such.

Sayonara

[matinjapan]

He really wanted a felafel in his hand

It has been a while. Three, four weeks since my last blog? I would’ve thought I’d be a tad more prolific with the writing in a once-every-century type quarantine. But, no.

Instead of writing, I’ve spent a huge proportion of my time scrolling through countless streams of corona related whathaveyou’s. Some of it pretty useful, most of it less so. And then the usual smattering of (mostly) drivel on social media. Occasionally funny drivel, but still drivel.

In terms of useful sources for corona, poker players are the unique standout.

I used to play a lot of poker. And the last two weekends just gone, I’ve caught up with some friends via video call to play. Nothing serious. More of an excuse to shoot the shit than anything. To be honest, it’s actually not the best way to catch up. Too much time spent transfixed on the cards.

Anyway, thoughts of poker led me to log back on to a poker forum that I used to visit on the regular.  There’s a lot of content geared towards poker (obviously), but there are subforums about all manner of topics. Business, finance and investing is one such subforum. Within that, a few of the regular contributors have created a coronavirus thread.

And basically, it’s easily the best synopsis of everything that’s going on that I’ve found. The posts from as far back as January have turned out to be super prescient, and it’s now my go to fix for a running commentary.

It’s definitely not all good; there’s still plenty of chaff to wade through. And it has exploded into dumb partisan arguments at multiple points. But the nuggets of gold (from a few key individuals) are worth the wade. Kind of ridiculous that I’m writing about an internet forum; speaks to just how bleh the world is right now. Ha.

Speaking to that bleh’ness, and in addition to my (metaphorical) inhalation of coronavirus, I’ve now been working from home for three weeks. Haven’t caught a train in that entire time, which is kind of unheard of, living in Tokyo. It has just been a case of going for walks, going for runs, and slowly going insane in my thirty square metre apartment.

Not really. I’m actually holding up fine.

For all the mayhem, Japan isn’t actually in any sort of lock down yet, either. Not officially, anyway. In the last week, a state of emergency was declared for major metropolitan areas. But it’s nowhere as imposing as what’s in place in other places in the world. The SoE essentially recommends that people stay at home, rather than enforcing that people stay at home. Crazy thing is that with Japanese culture being the way it is, the recommendation actually (kind of) works.

The effect of the recommendation was definitely in plain sight on Friday night. I had spent almost the entire day at home, but decided to head out around 830 to get some fresh air and felafel. I was really craving it for some reason. Possibly because I had alternated pesto pasta and shitty stir fry for the previous five nights. I could’ve definitely pursued a delivery option, but I decided to risk death and walk and get takeaway.

I left my apartment and headed into Shibuya proper at about 830. And the place was apocalyptic. I don’t think those normally packed streets would have been that empty for at least a few centuries. Super eery to see unlit neon signs, random bits of trash blowing through the streets (it was pretty windy), and only a scant few other people like myself, wandering around.

I went to turn back multiple times from just how weird the vibe was, but I was also really craving falafel so I pushed on (knowing that it was almost certainly closed). Some restaurants were open, but they were the exception. And they certainly weren’t cashing in on the swathes of pent up demand; they were all effectively empty.

Anyway, when I finally made it to the complex where the felafel place was, the whole building was shuttered. A big part of me was kind of relieved. I felt guilty for even going out in the first place (for something pretty trivial). Also, I didn’t actually want to have to go through the torment of touching a public door handle. Ha.

Sans falafel, I instead made do with a bowl of microwave soba from Family Mart. And the best thing: automatic doors. I’m really looking forward to the day that I’m not this comically paranoid.

Apart from poker and felafel, what else has been going on?

Well, I got rid of almost all my furniture. And that includes my (former) bed. I now just sleep on the floor on a pretty thin futon. And when I say removed, I ended up replacing the multiple items with a table and seat. So it was really a consolidation. It’s now a lot more minimal. Just need a plant or two, but I might wait until the whole SoE situation passes before heading out to the shops.

Oh, and I now have a chin up bar that takes up the entirety of the middle of my loungeroom. The intention is to attain some sort of climbing fitness while locked up. Will see how I go.

Always more that I could say, but will leave it there for now.

Sayonara.

[matinjapan]

Kid A

This last week or so has been kind of insane, to say the least. COVID is at the front of my mind. And it would seem it’s at the front of most everyone else’s mind, too.

I suspect the concern is at least a tad overblown. But, on the other hand, maybe not? Italy sounds particularly horrendous. And hard not to think that, shit, Australia, the US, etc. are a mere week or two away from a similar fate.

There’s almost no question that it’s going to keep ripping through the population. Flattening the curve is really all that can be done. Social distancing and border closures seem like the best course of action.

At least where I am, it’s a weird kind of calm at the moment. Streets are emptier, for sure. So too, shops and restaurants, et cetera. Fires are yet to smoulder in the streets; piles of rubbish and grime have yet to accumulate. No gangs of youths looting; plundering. Maybe my movie-led imaginings of a post-apocalyptic world aren’t all that applicable. Not yet anyway.

Everything’s just quieter. The whole ‘panic’ buying type stuff never really happened either. Not that I’ve seen anyway. People just rationally stocked up on toilet paper to last the next 17 months. That’s not panic’d, that’s just prudent. Ha.

While the health impacts continue to loom, the economic impact(s) have been a lot more immediate. A large chunk of the downturn is clearly a (direct) result of COVID. But a larger chunk of the fall seems to relate to the fact that there’s some pretty shaky foundations to our economic system, especially so with all that can kicking since 2008. The pace of falls has been pretty breathtaking; the fastest of any downturn on record. Who knows, everything might miraculously recover tomorrow. I’m not counting on it though. I feel both the health and economic fallout is just starting to gather pace.

In an embrace of the current state of the world, and to lower the cumulative (statistical) risk on emergency departments, I did my part, and did very little the weekend just gone. For a good chunk of time, I basically just lay on the floor. What a time to be alive.

It was snowing in Tokyo, too. Which was at least a somewhat alright accompaniment to my (voluntary) isolation. I definitely spent a good deal of the time plugging into developments on the internet. The Financial Times and Brown Cardigan complement each other pretty well.

But eventually, I kind of just tuned out; napped.

I also turned up my headphones pretty loud and put on Kid A. Even though I was already on the floor, it floored me. My god.

To me, Radiohead is ubiquitous; they’ve just always been. But I don’t think I’ve ever really dedicated time to listening to them. Not properly anyway. Maybe I’ve only ever pressed play when I’m not really paying attention. Though maybe I just wrongly assumed that I know them well, when I only really know them... not well.

Anyway, I was paying attention on the weekend. I don’t know what compelled me to throw it on. But I’m so glad I did. From the opening synths, to the literal heart on the floor ender, Kid A was incredible. The last track in particular is just magic; sad beyond belief, and somehow uplifting. I think my heart is still on the floor. A few tears, too (such a chump).

There’s a good chance that anything I put on (that was at least remotely ok) would’ve had a similar impact. I think that’s true to an extent. But more so, I think that sort of listening experience reinforces why they’re as big and ubiquitous as they are.

Anyway, after being emotionally drained, I proceeded to watch the Simpsons...

I’m going to take advantage of the eeriness and get out at least a little this weekend, while still embracing social distancing. I think the beach will be a good option. Just need to commandeer a board and a wetsuit.

Photos are from Nozawaonsen the week before, mixed in with some back catalogue.

Adios.

[matinjapan]

Feel the Bern

There’s multiple topics that I’ve started to write about with this blog, but inevitably cast aside. The half musings are still useful. They mainly reinforce my own ignorance. And they’re at least a marker for things I need to investigate.

Need is a strong word. I’ve avoided the distraction of Netflix and other streaming services since I’ve arrived. But I have watched a hell of a lot of Simpsons instead. I’ve five whole seasons sitting on my hard-drive that I basically throw on whenever I feel like spacing out. Which is pretty often.

Oh, and Peep Show. I’ve gone through the entire catalogue at least one-and-a-half times since November. Pirated versions are available on Youtube (to varying levels of quality). So even without a proprietary procrastination service, I’m still pretty good at finding ways to waste time. Peep Show is fucking excellent though.

So yeah, need is superseded by spacing out in on the regular.

I shouldn’t discredit myself too much. I’ve definitely been making inroads with Python (programming), and I’m also a good way into Genki, a Japanese language textbook. I’ve been reading it on the trains, mostly.

Then there’s work, a pretty steady stream of visitors, and random travels to different destinations whenever I have a spare day or two. I’m actually off to Nozawa Onsen again tomorrow morning for a couple of days. Still plenty of snow, even for basically the worst season that Japan has ever experienced. Maybe since the medieval warming period? Ha (no, I’m not that much of a loon).

And then there’s these occasional blog posts, too; time is definitely strapped!

Other news this week. It looks like Bernie is cooked. I’ve made a conscious decision to not really discuss politics on here. But as a tiny insight, I’m a bit miffed that Bernie isn’t going to be going up against Senor Trump.

There’s actually a bunch of things that Trump has done that I’m down with. The fact that he’s put a halt to the rampant globalisation, that has seen China flourish (on the back of human rights abuses and a race to the bottom in terms of worker rights) is something that I don’t think would’ve happened with an alternative President.

But Trump isn’t really an answer to meet the rising challenge of inequality. Would Bernie have been? I don’t know. But anything to stop capital from utterly trouncing labour might be a good thing.

I’m still all for free markets and capitalism. But given that that’s not what we’ve got (we’ve basically got crony capitalism), throwing a cranky old ‘socialist’ (he’s not really a socialist) into the mix, may be just what the world (or America) needed.

Enough politics. My cousin and her husband were in Tokyo last week. Was an awesome four nights running around Tokyo with them. Except for when they relayed that they wanted to go to the Robot Restaurant??! I’d kind of vowed to myself not to go to that place. But according to them, Bourdain was especially stoked on it.

With that sort of recommendation, who was I to deny? Fortunately (or unfortunately), it was all sold out. Anthony Bourdain is brilliant and all, but I think that recommendation can go down as a rare blight. Says the guy who still hasn’t gone! Ha.

Instead, we made it to the New York Bar in Lost in Translation, and a bunch of other random bars and restaurants littered through central Tokyo. Also, multiple Lawson and Family Mart stops, too. Slowly making my way through all the different 100ish yen snack and ice creams.

Definite win: have managed to avoid COVID as well (as far as I know).

There’s only 300 confirmed cases in Japan. And yeah, that’s tiny. But it’s tiny because it’s still basically in the beginning stages. The number of people that have contracted it is has stabilised in China, but it’s definitely going exponential in almost all other countries (especially those in colder climes). Basically, while the cases are still (relatively) few, the fears are not entirely unfounded. There’s a very high chance that this will spread wide and far.

I’m down to my last roll of toilet paper as well. So, I’m screwed.

I’ll expand on my ignorance(s) with a later post. Photos are from running around Tokyo.

Smell you later (I’m watching too much Simpsons).

[matinjapan]

Partially sick

I was feeling a little under the weather this morning. I immediately thought I had (Wuhan) coronavirus. It’s definitely possible. The outbreak in Japan isn’t quite on the same level as Wuhan (and other parts of China). But it’s floating around for sure.

Last week there was the debacle with the Diamond Princess. The ship that was ‘quarantined’ in Yokohama for a fortnight. Japan is supposedly a first world country. But, fuck. They really screwed it up. The powers that be essentially sanctioned an incubation chamber; quarantine conditions were laughable. And then, towards then end, when infection rates skyrocketed, authorities just let everyone off to then catch buses, trains, and taxis. Nice work.

The marathon, which is supposed to be this weekend coming, was cancelled last week. This seems particularly nonsensical. Proximity for 38,000 runners (and admittedly, a lot of spectators) can’t be too different to the proximity of people jumping on trains every minute. If the virus really is enough of a risk for the marathon to be cancelled, then the rest of Tokyo is already completely screwed.

It’s hard to know just how bad this thing is. I certainly don’t know. The info I’m taking in are only snippets. And because of that, I’m susceptible to the fear that’s being whipped up. Whether or not it reflects reality?

To speak to that fear, I reckon one out of every two people are wearing masks (especially on the trains). Japan has just entered the beginnings of hayfever season, which brings about a rise in mask wearing. But the Wuhan strain (or fear of) has almost certainly up’d the wear rates. Expert advice (WHO) remains that you just need to wash your hands. A mask is only needed if things have turn properly pandemic’y. As per usual, there’s plenty that don’t bother with expert advice (everyone’s their own expert).

It’s kind of funny though. Because, I’ve definitely seen quite a few people come out of bathroom stalls recently, who only offer a token effort at hand washing. And sometimes not at all! Invariably, many of these people are wearing masks. Fucking useless. Would be interesting to see a study of hand washing times and mask wearing.

If the regular flu is anything to go by, I think I’m looking ok (totally jinxed myself, ha). And that’s because I don’t think I’ve ever had influenza. If I have, the symptoms have been indistinguishable from the common cold.

I think the US stats are something like 60 million people get the flu every year. About one-in-five. And about 60,000 people die. Which is pretty astonishing; the flu kills about one-in-a-thousand that get it. I think it is overwhelmingly vulnerable people though. The elderly; people with prior conditions, etc.

The flu shot definitely helps. It might not be the difference between life and death for the standard healthy person. But getting the jab keeps herd immunity high, which means everyone (including the vulnerable) are less likely to get it. And the only cost is that you just have to deal with a mild case of autism (it’s a bit sad that I have to say: I’m joking).

In contrast to the regular flu, Wuhan actually sounds pretty bad. Instead of one-in-a-thousand, it seems like it’s somewhere between one-in-a-hundred and maybe even one-in-ten that are dying. Which is ten to a hundred times more deadly than the regular flu. Yikes. Don’t quote me on this, though. I’m mostly just spouting uninformed recollections. Fear propagation to the max.

But yeah, beyond the health impacts, before all this was happening, Japan recorded a six percent economic drop (annualised) for the December quarter. Which is massive. There was a two per cent hike in sales tax, that a lot of pundits are blaming for the fall. But for output to fall by as much as it did, a bunch of things (beyond just a small hike in sales tax) have had to have not been going well.

May’ve just bee anomalous data (can often happen when there’s a series break; i.e. the tax change). But even if that’s so, this slowdown in this quarter is assured. Visitors are down massively. Trade with China has fallen of a cliff. To say nothing of the health impacts (of COVID), economic impacts are (and will be) bad.

It’ll be interesting to see how all of this continues to play out. Maybe the warmer weather will bring reprieve? But people are already catch phrasing Tokyo 2021, which is pretty grim (and admittedly, funny).

For now, I’m definitely a lot more thorough with my hand washing. Proper lather for at least 30 seconds. It’s like filming for ER. And I’m pretty good at playing don’t-touch-anything-and-try-not-to-breathe (especially on the trains). It’s a pretty sweet game. For the trains at least, the trick is to wedge yourself into a nook so you don’t have to hold a hand hold.

I don’t think I’ll ever bother with the mask. Not until it’s properly apocalyptic. For one, they look stupid. And that’s all I have. Ha. But seriously, I appreciate people who wear them that are unwell (for the benefit of protecting others from themselves). But more than anything, needing an artificial barrier to live your life is a shit state of affairs.

On that note, I’m out. Photos are mainly from Hakone. I braved the trains yesterday (the day after my birthday), and went hiking. It was a bit of a debacle. The final train that was supposed to take me to a lake with views of Fuji, wasn’t operating. There were buses, but I decided to walk instead. Was only a bit more than 10 k’s on the map. But there was an additional 1200 metres of vertical. Undulating vertical. On a century’s old rocky path. It was actually pretty cool. But was a lot more taxing than the trek I was going to take along the lake. Plus, I didn’t end up seeing Fuji properly. Next time, if I’m still alive.

[matinjapan]

Day trippin’

Controversial, maybe slightly provocative opinion, but travelling can kind of suck.

There are a few big caveats to this opinion though. And it’s massively contrived. This post is basically just an extension of a half thought I had while in Yokohama today (actually now yesterday).

So yeah, Yokohama. Again. I made the decision to head down on the morning of (the day trip). Just for something to do. It was Sunday morning. I’d already gone for a quick run. Didn’t have any other plans, and so after quickly mulling a few options, I thought heading back to Yokohama would be an alright use of time.

I could’ve just hung out at home. Even just to do something as pedestrian as read (I’ve a massive backlog), or maybe even write, like I’m trying to do now at 10pm. But there’s this thing within my psyche that makes me feel guilty if I stay at home on a day off. Guilt booted me out the door at around noon.

It was super sunny. Cold though, with a pretty icy, substantial wind. But I learnt my lesson from the last trip and wore an appropriate amount of clothes. Jumper, and crucially, jacket.

Yokohama was cool on first visit, but the decision to go back wasn’t driven by any great desire to do anything (nothing specific anyway). If all options were on the table, I would’ve definitely preferred to go climbing. But I’ve done something to my elbow, and so, I’m trying to rest it. I’ve had a month off, and It’s not really getting better like I had hoped. Hence, I have to scrape the barrel in terms of organising non-descript day trips.

Which I don’t normally do. For the past year, a lot of my venturing has been tied to climbing. A bit of surfing, far less snow, and a few mountain bike ventures, too. Since arriving in Japan, all my activity-based travels have fallen to close to zero. Tokyo just ain’t as conducive, though a big part is me being (kind of) injured.

Anyway, this non-descript day tip led me to the thought bubble about travel. Travelling is, like I said, kind of shit. Main caveat: it’s shit if you don’t attach it to something you want to be doing.

Food, skateboarding, giant Sequoia’s, nouveau impressionists, taking photos of cobblestones, whatever. If something you’re keen on is the impetus for the travelling, then it typically makes for a fun time. But if you just go and aimlessly traipse around, it’s not necessarily that fun. As cool as I found Yokohama the first time, there’s nothing really there that I was going back for.

Continuing the thought bubble, there’s another caveat: I guess even without travelling somewhere to do something that you want to be doing, travelling can also be good if it’s to spend time with people you want to spend time with. Yeah, you can do that back home (depending on where your friends are), but the solid chunk of time that accompanies a trip can be great for dedicated time spend’age (with the peoples).

Travelling is also great if you’re genuinely adventuring (yes, another caveat; this whole theory is turning to mush). This is the type of travelling I daydream about, but don’t actually ever do. It’s hard though. To get off the beaten path, and properly trail blaze. To do something that not many others are doing requires some pretty dedicated planning. I’m thinking on, or in, the order of walking/travelling between some stupidly remote destinations. The type of trip where you can properly get away from it all. And risk dying while you’re at it.

Not to everyone’s liking, and polar opposite to the standard pool and cocktail type trip that a lot of people froth on. If you’re anywhere near a Starbucks, then you’re probably not adventuring. Needless to say, Yokohama has more than a few Starbucks; I wasn’t adventuring yesterday.

I think Starbucks is what contributed to my initial thought bubble. Walking along the street, seeing a few people holding coffee, ambling around Yokohama with no real intention, just seemed a bit shit. Maybe they really fucking loved Starbucks, and were mid-worldwide-taste-testing-tour. But more likely, they were probably just in Yokohama for something to do; being lame like me.

Continuing on with the whole Starbucks thing, I didn’t partake. Instead, I grabbed one of the Family Mart machine-made coffees for 100 yen. Cheap skates’ delight.

Aside from a coffee and accompanying rice-triangle thing (I believe they’re called Onigiri), all I did in Yokohama was walk. Past the marooned cruise liner filled with novel coronavirus, and a fair way through and around the coastal suburbs, which kind of reminded me of Sydney’s north shore. Less greenery and foliage but pretty similar geographical vibe.

I also skirted China town, but thought better of heading too far in, lest I expose myself to a virus laden package.

Anyway, I think I’ll be a bit more diligent with my travelling (does a day trip even count as travelling?). Hopefully the elbow improves, because I’d really like to go bouldering and/or climbing around Japan. Admittedly, climbing is almost as arbitrary and meaningless/meaningful as going somewhere, just because. But the ‘almost’ part gives it the edge. 

In non-Yokohama’ing news, a friend made it to Japan last week, and we ended up shredding the gnar for a few days at Nozawaonsen. That was a cool trip (ticked all the above mentioned boxes), even though it has been the worst season for decades. We were lucky. When we arrived, we were greeted by a couple of consecutive days of 30cm of fresh. The base that the snow was falling on could’ve been more substantial (a lot of small twigged bushes to plow through), but it was still pretty sweet.  

I’m actually thinking about booking again this weekend. It’s apparently amazing right now. Around 2 metres of fresh in the last 10 days. But it’s supposed to warm up on Wednesday and rain all the way through Friday/Saturday. Not really worth it if that’s the case. Goddamn. Maybe a weekend in instead, reading. And lamenting that I didn’t get out. Ha.

Photos are from the last few weeks of Yokohama, Nozawaonsen, Tokyo and potentially other forgettable day trip places.

Adios

[matinjapan]

Borderless

Yesterday was cold. It was raining as well; verging on snow. Not the best weather to be out sightseeing. But that’s exactly what I did, with a friend, who was stopping through on his way to (the pow in) Hokkaido.

We made the most of the rain, and booked it over to TeamLabs Borderless. It’s this digital art type thing with lights, projections and interactive roomscapes. Ambient music a la ocean sounds and/or Aphex Twin accompanies the visual effects. Digital rain and something akin to lightspeed (from that once ok franchise) were two example pieces. Cliff notes, it’s actually really cool. The mind melts.

It was pretty damn packed though, so we missed one of the main attractions. No doubt awesome, but a 60 minute wait was too much. You still get to be kind of in the mix of things (lights, music, and what not) while you wait. But you’re in the two- and three-out-of-ten filler, which isn’t as awesome as the nine- and ten-out-of (obviously).

Post neuron overload, we jumped on a train down to Yokohama, which is about 35’ish kilometres from Tokyo. It’s close, but it’s difficult to get there quickly, sans helicopter.

I actually thought about living in Yokohama when I first landed the job, because everyone raves about it so much. But the commute is supposed to be one of the worst things known to man; well over an hour on some of the most packed trains on earth. Pretty ok with the fact that I’m living a bit more central.

Yokohama’s definitely a different vibe to (central) Tokyo. The CBD is right on the harbour, and so the view of the city scape on the water is pretty amazing. Everything’s more spread out too. Would have been keen to wander for a while, but I made the stupid decision at the start of the day to only wear a flanno and a shell (jacket). Woefully underdressed. Conbini coffees offered a bit of respite, but not to the same extent as a decent coat.

We ended up going to the noodle cup museum to escape the cold. Weird place. The guy who invented them seems to have a reasonably cool back story (from what I could make out). And commercial success is great and all. But it really seemed like the vibe of the place was to deify the dude. And not just to embrace the kitsch. Meh, the place was warm, so that was something to be stoked about.

Bailed on making our own noodles and headed over to Chinatown. The district is pretty big, and looks incredible with lanterns hung up through all the streets. Tourist’y though. And the (restaurant) spruikers were extra enthusiastic/annoying when we were there. Lack of people (probably because of the rain and cold) really angst’d everyone up about getting business.  

Didn’t bother embracing one of their ‘deals’, and grabbed a snack from one of the street vendors instead: a red bean bun. ‘Twas sweet. But, by this time, the cold had beaten me, and so we headed back to Tokyo. Went all out on a Family Mart dinner, which was actually awesome. Multiple bars, drinks, etc. on the previous few nights, and a pretty epic amount of walking, suppressed the desire to kick on.

Definitely keen to go back to Yokohama. I feel like cruising round on a bike would be a good way to see it. Will hold off til we’ve some warmer weather.

Adios.

[matinjapan]

Curse these metal hands

Last night was less than exceptional. Just as I was getting to my floor after getting home, I fumbled and then dropped my keys down the elevator shaft. I was so tired (it was well past midnight), and I was so looking forward to bed, that I stood there shell shocked, not able to comprehend. It was probably about the worst thing that has ever happened to anyone. Ha.

And classic me: my spare set was about ten kilometres away at work. Perhaps not the best place to stash them.

Anyway, it was 3am, and I was not particularly sober. Without any real options, I lay down on the ground near the lift and went to sleep. Grim times.

I woke up, freezing, at around 7am. On a public holiday. Messaged a couple of work colleagues to see if I could even get into the office. Luckily, I could.

And so, I headed to Kachidoke (where I work). Signed for the keys at the security desk, grabbed my spare, and then headed back home, exhausted.

Despite the less than ideal circumstance, the commute was actually kind of cool. Very few people, and it was a beautiful, sunny day to walk through some quiet Tokyo streets. Would’ve been great to take advantage of the weather for the entire day, but I crashed hard once I eventually made it home.

I’ve since headed to the basement with a torch looking through the crack(s) to hopefully spot my keys. Unfortunately, no dice.

But, that was until I had the (genius) idea to stand outside the lift (which has a glass window), send it up to a higher floor, and then have a view of the entire well. And there they were (and still are).

It’ll probably involve an exorbitant call out fee to get someone to get them for me. And unfortunately, they’re space age keys, so it’s not as if I can cheaply cut a new set.

Oh well. Am pretty excited about not sleeping on the floor tonight.

Pics are from the empty streets this morn (I had my camera with me).

[matinjapan]

Extreme(s) musings

Hearing from people in Aus over the new year period has been pretty crazy. The fires hitting ‘the coast’ (how Canberra people refer to roughly Nowra through to Narooma’ish) have been incredible. So many houses lost, and pretty end-of-world times for people caught up in it all. And it’s still not over. Sounds as if the fires are about to hit the ACT, as well. Like I said, incredible.

There are some pretty ‘extreme’ circumstances that have contributed to the current fires. Chief amongst them are probably long-term drought conditions and a hot summer. I’m totally guessing, but what may’ve been a 3-sigma event (in pre-industrial times), might now only be a 2-sigma event? For the non-mathies out there, sigma just refers to how likely an ‘event’ or observation might be. High-sigma events are less and less likely.

The cool thing to think about is that it doesn’t take too many jumps away from the mean (a jump being one sigma, aka one standard deviation), until you’re in some pretty unlikely territory. Something that’s a 2-sigma event isn’t too likely, but still relatively common. About one-in-twenty type odds. If the thing that you’re measuring occurs daily, a 2-sigma event will happen every 3 weeks or so, on average.

But then you get to 3-sigma. Which is pretty damn unlikely. Less than 1 per cent, or maybe a once a year type thing.

4-sigma. Every 40 years, give or take.

5-sigma, forget about it. Super unlikely. Every five thousand years or so.

The main point is that an extra sigma movement is exponentially less likely; it’s not a linear relationship.

For pure outlandishness, 7-sigma is once every billion years or so. I think famously, certain models that banks used, had the Financial Crisis of 2008 as a 15-sigma event. Which is pretty hilarious. Either the models are correct, and we experienced something that was far less likely than anything in the history of anything. Or the models weren’t quite as accurate as they needed to be.

I think on their own, a hot summer like what Australia is having was probably relatively likely in pre-industrial times. Maybe like a 1-, 2- or 3-sigma event. I’m not sure, totally spitballing. And drought conditions like how they currently are, may’ve been a similar likelihood.

But the distributions for both these things are shifting. What would’ve been a 2-sigma condition, might now only be 1.5-sigma. What was ‘extreme’ is no longer as ‘extreme’. A new (and continually shifting) normal to look forward to.

There’s also the fact that certain conditions might reinforce each other. For example, hot summers might lead to drought conditions (i.e. they’re correlated). In such a situation, having multiple conditions all come at once – a ‘perfect storm’ – might not be as unlikely as you first think (if your initial belief was that they were unrelated).

Given just how screwed we are (in terms of increasing global temperatures), I think the southern tip of Tasmania is going to become more and more valuable. Buying something as far south as possible is probably an ok life choice (for living and/or investing).

In contrast to Australia, Tokyo has been far less fire’y. The days have actually been super crisp and clear. And not too cold either.

I headed out to Mitake again yesterday. This time not to boulder, but to hike to the top. I was going to go on new years day, but it would’ve been way busier. There’s a temple at the top, and the Japanese love going to temples on New Years Day.

Getting to the top of Mitake involves a train like the one’s you see in San Francisco, where the carriage is a warped rectangle to account for the slope. I didn’t take it though.

The path was super steep and windy, and just a really cool forest of tall trees to walk through. As per many outdoorsy type activities, everyone is far more friendly. Konichiwa’s were forthcoming from pretty much everyone I walked past, which is a far cry from the cruel streets of Tokyo. Ha.

Seriously, I’m finding that it’s pretty important to get out of the city as regularly as I can. It can be too much to be in the company of millions of people, sans nature, for weeks at a time. As great as neon lights are, they’re not that great all of the time.

A few of the photos are from Mitake. Also a few from a potential surf spot I checked out in Enoshima. It might be decent with the right swell conditions, but it could be pretty unlikely given how protected it is from the Pacific Ocean. When I visited, I don’t think it could’ve been flatter. Might need to be 3-sigma conditions for it to be surf’able?

Heading east through Chiba is likely my best bet for consistent swell, but I think it’s a bit of an ordeal to get to from Tokyo. Would likely have to be a multiple day type trip to make it worthwhile.

A few other random photos around Tokyo. One that definitely sticks out: a Japanese couple taking their dog for a walk.

I think it’s definitely a massive luxury to own a dog in Tokyo. But the extent of the typical owners’ pampering of their dog(s) knows no bounds. It’s almost as if dogs are carried over here more than they’re walked.

If the dog(s) do happen to be walking, every need and whim is attended to. Oh, you’d like to sniff that tuft of grass, let me patiently wait for you to do what you will, and then follow wherever else it is that you lead me. It’s pretty embarrassing. Definitely another weird relationship that Japan has with our fellow animals.

Even eating soba at the top of Mt Mitake, there were three people sitting across from me, with two of them holding their super pampered dogs at the table. They were actually super chill and well behaved. But damn, Japan.

Anyway, to those living in the firestorms of Aus, all the best with bunkering down and/or fighting them. Try and stay safe.

[matinjapan]

Natsukashii

A friend mentioned that the initial few months after moving somewhere new are both exhilarating and challenging. I very much agree.

It’s not something that’s necessarily new to me; I have form with moving to new cities.

The first six years of my life were spent in Sydney. And then, Newcastle. At early school age, a move like that can definitely throw you off kilter. But it’s probably not as big of a deal as when you’re older. Person dependent, obviously.

For me, the transition from running on the grass covered parks of Double Bay (I’m still not really sure how I ended up at that school), to the asphalt covered playgrounds in New Lambton, was reasonably smooth. Perhaps a little apprehension and uncertainty, but made easier given that we were only a couple of hours up the road.

To speak to that uncertainty, a good friend of ours frequently recounts how I responded to his question about what I thought of Newcastle. He apparently asked me following an initial trip to check the place out (I would have been five or so). My response: ‘Fuck Newcastle’. I can’t remember it happening, but I still wear the FN nickname from him, regardless.  

Other places I’ve moved to are Jindabyne, Sydney again, Canada (twice), and most recently, Canberra. Canberra was at the end of 2011, though. So it has been a quite a while since I’ve up’d and moved. Jindabyne and Canada don’t really count either, given that it was basically just extended holidaying/snow bumming.

I still feel attached to Newcastle, and to a lesser extent, Sydney. But in the last couple of years, Canberra has really started to feel like home. Zero expectations, and a feeling that it was always kind of temporary, slowly gave way to (more) familiarity and (more) fondness. The things and environment in Canberra are obviously part of that, but mostly it’s the friends I’ve made.

Which brings me to Natsukashii. I remember hearing this word a while ago. Actually, I had to look it up; I only remembered the meaning. It’s one of those great Japanese words where there’s no real direct translation. Loosely, it means feelings of nostalgia. There’s a subtleness to it though, that is supposed to capture feelings of sadness. Homesickness.

And I think that perfectly captures how I feel right now. Natsukashii.

In that spirit, I’ve an extended sampling of pictures from my final few months in Aus. Not all are shot in Canberra (but most are), and not all are shot by me (for some, that should be obvious).

Needless to say, I miss all of you. And apologies, not everyone made it within frame.

You’ll have to make it over to Japan for that to change (and that definitely includes people from beyond Canberra)!

Sayonara

[matinjapan]

Japan and the peoples

It goes without saying, but there are a lot of people in Tokyo. I reckon I walk past close to ten thousand people (probably more) on certain days. And not just within some arbitrarily large radius. I’m meaning walking by so close, that we’re basically brushing shoulders (or close to).

It’s a pretty normal experience for a huge chunk of the world. For me, not so much. Newtown or the CBD in Sydney, or any one of dozens of destinations I’ve been to are similar. The difference is that I don’t think I’ve ever lived, or been, anywhere where it’s as inescapable.

Actually, that’s not quite right. The non-main streets where I live (not far from Shibuya) are actually pretty empty. But it doesn’t take too much of a walk towards somewhere worth going, and suddenly, people.

I don’t think I have much of a point with this post. Ha.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that Tokyo ain’t Canberra. Surprisingly. Strolling to some relatively quiet shops, grabbing a coffee (or whatever), and interacting with/seeing only a handful of people, is a rare experience over here.

The number of people certainly makes the train(s) a pretty unreal experience. Likewise, the shops. Somewhere like Uniqlo in a place like Shinjuku (as per my Saturday afternoon) is particularly extreme. Goddamn.

Endless rivers of people move through small aisles, and multiple levels (via escalators), consuming writ large. The music is pretty excruciating (perhaps not as bad as Don Quijote: a whole other circle of hell). Though it’s not quite to the level that would make you want to leave, without first buying whatever it is you’re there for.

In a remarkable feat, I actually escaped without buying anything. I was in line with a few items, but aborted at the last minute. Ended up pushing back though the one-way line that was heading to the register (no easy feat), dumped the stuff I thought I wanted, and left.

I think Amazon is going to be my new best friend while over here.

Anyway, I’d be genuinely surprised if anyone actually enjoyed that sort of shopping experience. At the same time though, Uniqlo’s appeal is pretty clear. They’re hard to beat for the essentials, especially when most brand name stores are more expensive than the equivalent in the US, Aus., or Europe.

Enough with the shopping.

There’s a few happy snaps from the weekend, below. I didn’t make it out of the inner sanctum this weekend. Am keen to change that next weekend. Will likely check out the coast and a potential surf spot at Enoshima.

Until then, sayonara.

(Oh, and currently up’ing my Japanese skills. Will have more than ‘sayonara’ soon)

[matinjapan]

Yokocho’ing and mountains

It feels like I’m well and truly into my time in Japan.  

The initial days and weeks were almost like a holiday. But that’s not really the case anymore.

As settled as I feel I’m getting, I’m pretty sure there’ll be a limit; I doubt whether I’ll ever feel like a local. Which is fine. I daresay it’s a similar experience for migrants in Aus or any other country.

Despite my outsider’ness, I am keen to ingratiate myself as much as possible by learning Japanese. I’d love to get to be fluent. But even just to be able to buy something from the Conbini, and interact, without just standing there like a berk.

I’ve been memorising the hiragana and katakana on a few apps, and have started to listen to lessons on youtube. It’s hard though. Hoping to improve, but hope’s not really going to do it for me. Just got to put in the hours. Once I get to an ok beginner level, I’m going to commit to a course and/or tutor.

This week has been another pretty action-packed week. I managed to sample some sake at a tiny bar in Shibuya on Thursday. There were seats at the bar for 7 people and that’s it. It was pretty expensive, which I guess is the only way you’re going to make money with a place like that.

I was there with some Korean dudes (there on business), a guy who worked at the national library, a young investment banker and a mother-daughter from Melbourne. Ha.

They asked me if my work was related to the good energy or the bad energy, which is a fair question! I’ll crystallise my thoughts before posting something at a later date. The kid who worked at the investment bank also had an Aus connection: his dad (mostly) grew up in Sydney. There’s some yokocho’s (small bar/eateries) near Ebisu which I remember from the last time I was over here. I think they’re next on my list. Perhaps a bit more affordable, while still being close to where I live.

Apart from other drinking times littered throughout the week (and some bouldering at a gym on Wednesday) I jumped on a train yesterday and headed to a mountain called Takao. Or rather, that was my intention. I ended up in the wrong Takao! A few extra hundred yen, and about an hour of extra travelling and I eventually made it.

There was a heap of green (and yellow and brown) vistas to take in at this time of year. And for that reason, the top of the mountain was a pretty similar experience to being at Shibuya crossing. The walk was actually pretty challenging too. I took a less frequented route, which was pretty steep and slippery in parts. The top is 660 metres, and I’m guessing the bottom isn’t too far above sea level, so it was a definite leg burner by the end.

I took my camera, but most of the shots don’t look very good. 28mm probably isn’t the best for landscapes.

Another week. I’ve been thinking about other stuff that isn’t just a recap of life events, so hopefully I can post those sort of blogs soon.

Sayonara