We are about to enter a new nuclear age.
Just over 77 years ago we entered into a new age of nuclear warfare. With the dawn of the ICBM age, we success averted nuclear war only by the madness of mutually assured destruction.
Two times in history we were on the brink and the doctrine of MAD saved the world. First between October 16, 1962 and October 29, 1962. The second time in 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, also during a similar timeframe from October 6- October 25.
We are as close to nuclear annihilation now as we were those years ago, but the public is much less aware, and I think this time, we will likely see a nuclear exchange at some level.
Why?
1) The US president has no stomach for nuclear war. Although noble in principle, that attitude almost guarantees that Putin will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons in an effort to win a war in Ukraine. Nuclear deterrent is only a deterrent when all nuclear powers make clear that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with nuclear annihilation. Anything less is no deterrent at all.
2) The US no longer follows a launch on warning strategy. Faced with a full scale attack, the US president would have about 12 minutes to decide how to respond to a nuclear strike, before becoming a victim. Hypersonics (particularly submarine launched ones) and autonomous nuclear torpedos can essentially reduce the response time to zero. Should Putin desire to decapitate US or NATO leadership, he easily can, although I do not think this is likely.
3) Putin is in a corner. He has had not delivered in any of the military or political objectives that were stated at the start of the war in Ukraine. Russia grossly underestimated the West's willingness to support Ukraine with weapons and assistance, and has also grossly overestimated it's own military capabilities.
4) Politically Putin has all but committed to the hardliners in the Kremlin to use nuclear weapons. The sabatage of the Nord Stream pipeline the same week as annexations of parts of Ukraine as sovereign Russian territory are a sign of that commitment. Putin has clearly placed himself in a position where he must win at any cost, and must punish Europeans for their support of Ukraine. He has to make conflict with Russia so unthinkable that European interests will capitulate fully to his demands. He intends to do this by showing his willingness to unleash the nuclear demon, fully aware that he will face no meaningful consequence.
5) the US and NATO are unwilling, and likely unable to mount any response that is politically tenable under the most likely scenarios. Any non nuclear response will be read by the Russians as weakness. And Putin will double down on the nuclear deterrent of his own once he achieved his aims. It will be very hard for the democraticly elected governments of the world to advance any form of nuclear retaliation once the effects of whatever nuke Putin elects to use are seen on TV.
What do I think will happen? Absent a credible threat to Putin's continued existence from the US, I think the following miat likely.
Following Putin's anexation of the additional areas of Ukraine, Putin will demand the immediate and unconditional surrender of all Ukrainian forces. This will be coupled with specific threats to the Ukrainian government and the governments of the nations that support Russia. If Ukraine does not comply (and I have no reason to believe they will), a nuclear attack will be launched. This initial attack, most likely to occur in early to mid October, will target Kyiv, and may include EMP strikes against NATO countries, and possibly even the US, by Russia's mostodern weapons. Putin will want as much media coverage of these events as possible. He will threaten the world with a full force level nuclear exchange of his demands are not met. If the West does not retaliate immediately, the likelihood of nuclear retaliation will rapidly fall to zero as the world deals with the consequences of nuclear weapon use and realizes that Putin's threats are not empty. Any attempt at a decapitation strike, or retaliation will be met with further nuclear weapon usage. Russia will face economic isolation, but a miserable winter in Europe will insure that does not last too long.
I think this course of action is all but inevitable as long as the US and NATO do not commit to defending Ukraine on a nuke for nuke basis, the whole strategy appears to be based around the idea that nuclear exchange is unthinkable to the west and complete necessary under the Russian view.
I hope I am wrong, but I am far more concerned about nuclear war today than I have been at any other time in my life.