Final 2016 NFL Mock Draft
Well, well, well, we finally made it. Draft week is here and I couldn’t be more excited. It is my favorite day in all of sports (until the Vikings make it to the Super Bowl sometime in my lifetime) and it’s something I look forward to every year. As soon as the Vikings are done for the season I go full on draft mode(my lovely fiancé gets less and less attention the closer we get to the draft) and spend many hours watching film and reading scouting reports about every relevant player that could go rounds 1-3. I do scout other players but that’s more on a level of who the Vikings could possibly take throughout the draft. When making my drafts though I spend the majority of my time scouting early round prospects and spend a lot (and I mean a lot) of time on Bleacher Report reading articles and watching videos. I go pick by pick with my draft as if it were actually happening and if you have read my mocks before (I make 4 every off season: Post Super Bowl, Post Combine, Post Free Agency, and Final) you know that I am a hardcore Minnesota fan but am much unbiased when making my mocks. To give an example I would love for MN to land Treadwell or Doctson but as I am writing this right now I couldn’t tell you if that’s how the mock will play out so we’ll both have to wait and see. Ok though enough rambling, I’m exciting to do write my final mock (especially after the two blockbusters) and I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoy writing it.
1. St. Lo… sorry… Los Angeles Rams
a. Guess I was wrong when I said last mock that nobody would sell the farm to take either Goff or Wentz with the first overall pick. I personally think it’s giving up too much but with a move to LA I guess its necessary to make a splash and they did just that. They will now have a franchise QB (hopefully) and are gambling either way whether they did this or whether they had the chance to take Lynch later on in their original slot. Honestly I don’t need much expertise to mock this pick because the fellas at Bleacher Report tell me it’s 99.9% certain Goff will be the Ram’s selection. Tough to argue against that, smokescreen or not. This guy just looks like a franchise QB, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TcwdHWD3YU,easy to say though when you’re watching just highlights but still.
a. Again this one doesn’t take much expertise. I actually originally had Carson going to Philly in my first mock (Post Super Bowl) but obviously that was long before they traded up twice. Since then, Carson’s stock has risen immensely, immensely enough for another team to sell the farm to select him. Honestly I think the Browns should’ve stayed put and took Wentz (we’ll get into that later on) but I am at least happy that Carson will not go to the QB black hole. Looking at this before Bradford’s recent trade demands it would be perfect being Wentz could take a redshirt year but even with this possible shipping of Sam out of Philly I believe Carson is capable stepping in day 1 and starting/succeeding. If you don’t believe me check this out (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRLe5ltOD4g ). He is a determined individual who demands nothing but the best from himself and others around him (try being in his group for school projects). I said it in my first draft and I will say it again, good luck in the City of Brotherly Love my friend, you deserve it Big Red. Go Bizon and go Eagles!
a. Now here’s where things get interesting. People will argue back and forth whether Tunsil or Ramsey will go here. Either one should be seen as a homerun pick considering both could very easily have gone number 1 overall. We’ll debate that in a passing league it is a necessity to have a solid secondary. We will also debate that Rivers is aging and regularly got the snot beat out of him last season (see Week 3 against the Wardens of the North). Both are extremely important aspects of a football team and honestly this is hard for me to pick but I feel this once in a decade talent in the secondary will be a surprising number 3 overall pick.
a. Another interesting pick comes at number 4. It has been reported that Jerry Jones loves Elliot and wants him picked at 4 overall. Looking back at recent drafts it’s not very often that Jerry gets his way picking players, best example is Johnny Football. I’ll just say that he should be owner and president and have the title of GM taken away. He prefers players who put up a big highlight real rather than make smart football decisions. Sorry but Elliot is not going number 4 overall, heck Adrian Peterson wasn’t even drafted this high and he’s the greatest RB this generation has ever seen rush the football. Dallas has had a band of misfits (literally: Hardy, Lawrence, Gregory) on the defensive front. They also don’t have a need on the OL so picking Bosa just makes sense here.
a. If you read my last blog I posted (revisiting last year’s final mock draft) you’d see that I totally botched the trade aspect of it. Here I am foolish again to give it another try. The Jags don’t need Tunsil and there’s no way someone doesn’t move up in front of Baltimore (who would take Tunsil). Why do I pick the Lions to do it? I made fun of Rivers earlier about getting beat on by the Vikings but good Lord the beating that they put on Stafford last year was even worse. This move allows Detroit to move Reiff over to the right side where he belongs and also helps last year’s Tomlinson by adding more quality around him. The whole line benefits and so does Stafford’s back side, thus benefitting the whole offense. They reestablish their passing game by giving their QB more time, thus benefitting the running game by having a defense who isn’t solely focused on the rush, thus benefitting their other high draft pick in Abdullah. With this selection Detroit isn’t even bothered by Megatron’s departure because Stafford can have time to do more than just heave the ball up in Johnson’s general direction. That was a lot to process. I apologize.
a. Baltimore ideally wants to move out of this pick but now with the trade value of it has cooled. Here are the Raven’s options being they are “stuck” here: Buckner, Jack, Stanley, and Hargreaves. Buckner is an incredible talent as a 3-4 DE but Baltimore is flirting with the possibility of switching to a 4-3 so depending what they decide to do on defense will heavily influence this pick. Jack’s knee was compared to a time bomb and will slide. Stanley I have nothing to argue against at this point and same goes for Hargreaves. Hargreaves is talented enough to play whatever concept at either outside or slot and Baltimore’s pass defense has been horrendous, but then again they did lose arguably their best asset on the OL in free agency. Here we stand at another difficult selection. If I’m Baltimore I will need to take the full 10 minutes to decide and ultimately decide to continue to build around the defense who won them two Super Bowls and could very well do it again. Hargreaves is the gritty player Baltimore likes on their defense and one who plays bigger than his height with an aggressive playing style and impressive vertical. You think this is a reach? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mh17M–aQc not as much as you may think.
a. I’m going to sound like a broken record by the end of this, here is another interesting pick. Then again that’s what makes the draft so awesome is the uncertainty and insanity that comes along with it. It is a chess match and your future not only lies in your hands but also in the hands of the people drafting in front of you as well as behind you. Ok I got sidetracked, back to SF. Does Chip convince Kap to stay or does he get traded? Do they believe in Lynch enough to take him at 7? I personally don’t think so but then again nothing is a surprise with Chip. Some secondary help here would be great but do they want Alexander, Apple, or Jackson his high? That I’m not sure. They could also use a running mate for Bowman but is Jack’s or Smith’s knee worth the risk considering they had two LB’s bolt early on them because of injury/wear and tear concerns? They could trade down or pair Armstead and Buckner, after all there is that Oregon connection. I think they surprise everyone early and be the first team to pick a WR to help out whoever may be under center this coming season. Coleman is an excellent fit for a high tempo Chip Kelly offense.
a. Here we go Brownies, here we go! Woof, woof! This is always an entertaining pick. The Browns have made a habit of being a laughing stock in the first round in recent drafts, I’d list off bust selections but I want to keep this pick to a single paragraph. I personally think the Browns should have taken their first legit franchise QB since I don’t even know who but at least they managed to acquire more picks after letting all their big name free agents walk. I don’t put it past Cleveland to select Lynch here but weirdly enough they seem content with Bob at QB and will probably elect to take a developmental QB in the next couple rounds, hopefully sooner rather than later. Derek Carr did fall to early second round and its very realistic to think this could happen to Lynch and the Browns. Anyways, whoever is at QB will need some protection after the OL lost some key contributors in the offseason. If they fail to select Stanley here someone cue the laugh track.
a. The Bucs really need some pass rush. Their safety tandem is awful and no safety is worth taking this early in the draft. They could go with Lawson here but I think they elect to go with versatility and take a risk. TB seems like they don’t mind taking on some red flags (see last year’s number 1 overall pick) and the stakes are lower here than last year so they pick Spence. I personally think Spence could be a bust judging his lack of ability to bend the edge and get low when taking on tackles. He dominated at Eastern Kentucky but are any OT he faced there going to go round 1 and have legit talent like he will face on a regular basis in the NFL? I could be wrong but with the right coaching he could fix these flaws in his game. For me though the stiffness is the big one, just check out the TV views on this tape when he comes around the edge and you be the judge, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S68wjetIcT4 . He wins off power and that won’t cut it in the NFL, one trick ponies don’t always have the brightest future. But he fits in Tampa Bay and could thrive here whether he’s standing up or has his hand in the dirt.
a. Myles Jack is the popular pick here and there’s reason for it. I will have no argument if that ends up being their selection and I would maybe even go as far as to call it a steal, but I think we’re in store for another surprise. Eli needs help in one way or another. That goober often looks clueless out on the field and NY can’t afford to throw the ball as much as they do without some sort of running game. Their RB group consists of 3 decent backs who are better as change of pace/role players rather than workhorses. Elliot is worthy of this pick and the Giants should make haste and snatch him here. Trade offers will likely be coming in (I was really tempted to put Miami here) and NY could elect to give up Elliot and trade down to target Jack or Floyd but that’s no fun. It’ll benefit Eli greatly with teams having to respect their running game. OBJ and Elliot are a nasty combination for the offense. We have all seen Beckham Jr.’s highlights well here, now add this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FFKyKLHwDw .
a. The perfect situation just fell right into Chicago’s lap. If this is how the draft plays out and they stay patient there is no way they can pass on this pick. In fact if there’s another team that’s high on DeForest Buckner then they had better be calling the Giants before this even becomes a possibility. The Bears would literally be drooling for this and there’s a very good chance this isn’t how things will play out but hey, crazier things have happened. It’s the draft, nobody really knows. We had two surprises already with SF’s pick and Elliot falling to the unlikely Giants. There really isn’t much more to write about this pick, its best case scenario for the hometown Bears.
a. Who exactly plays on the DL for NO?? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Yeah unless you’re a Saints fan you probably can’t name one. I’ll help you out though, they signed Nick Fairley in the offseason and it could be argued that he’s their best defensive lineman. They clearly need some beef up front. They could go defensive back here but I think that if they play their cards right with a defensive lineman then they can help the pass coverage. There is a ton of options here in a deep class and part of me wants to put Billings here because he is an absolute monster but also not a three down player. I think they elect for versatility here and look elsewhere.
a. In my mind, Miami tried to trade up with the Giants but couldn’t seal the deal for Elliot. This means Ajayi is the workhorse for the time being. It’ll turn into a make or break year for him. He’ll have to prove that he can handle the load or else his role won’t last long. Miami could also target RB’s early after the first round. In the meantime what are they going to do with this pick?? Popular word says CB but their defense can and will hold their own this year. Do we still know if Tannehill is their guy? Not really and we won’t know until the Dolphins patch up the sieve in front of him. They have some decent guys up front but that’s not going to cut it and they would be wise to take a tackle early here.
a. Let the red flags fly. Oakland is going to take a gamble here and look to add to a defense that is shaping up to be an elite one. They could take an offensive lineman or a CB and I wouldn’t argue if they did but if they want the defense to really take that step forward then take a gamble. Again I like Billings here but we’re still a little early for a nose tackle unless a team is 3-4 and NT is a high need. So we go with the curious case of the Ole Miss product who at one point was seen as the number 1 overall pick.
a. Bravo to the Titans for robbing the Rams for picks. Great move for a team that wants to accelerate the rebuilding process. Tennessee would’ve gotten an A grade for selecting Tunsil number 1 overall but they get an A+ for trading down and getting another tackle they desire. Also a target of Detroit who traded up to get Tunsil the Titans were safe here. Tennessee could use an upgrade at right tackle and this fits perfectly being Conklin is a better prospect on the right side. Not much more to say here. Mariota will be happy.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars *Trade*
a. Another bravo to Jacksonville who will finally end a huge draft slide. Before knee concerns the Jags’ could’ve very easily made this pick at their original position but instead they acquire more picks and get they player they wanted. Is it me or is this draft all too good to be true for a lot of teams? You might say this is too far for Jack to fall but I don’t think it’s unrealistic. Jaylon Smith is going to fall out of the first round because he will be taking a redshirt year and now with Jack people are worried he might not make it to a second NFL contract. So no I don’t think this is a unrealistic fall. But enough arguing, just envision this: Fowler Jr., Malik Jackson, Amukamara, Gibson, and now Myles Jack. Time to start taking the Jaguars seriously.
a. Darron Lee or Leonard Floyd??? Either are great picks here. Beasley could use a partner in crime to keep defenses guessing. Floyd is a bit of a wildcard who I think has Anthony Barr potential (I’ll link highlights for him when he goes on the board (spoiler alert, it’s not right now)) but I think Atlanta will be looking for more of a 3 down stereotypical linebacker and Lee just fits that mold. Heck I’ll link one of his highlight films too, this guy is just plain fast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWw7-WZRrr4 am I wrong??
a. We got options here. OL is one specifically on the interior such as Whitehair, Martin, or Kelly. And they could very easily go that route and nobody would criticize them (well maybe some people). The Colts do need some pass rush especially considering their defensive front isn’t getting any younger. Or they could take a CB here, again an aging group. Let’s narrow it down between Floyd and Alexander. Alexander is a big CB who has the length teams look for and although his interception numbers won’t blow anyone away he allowed an impressively low number of catches during his tenure at Clemson. Sorry but those promised Floyd highlights are going to have to wait. Pass rusher are easier to come by than quality CB’s in this draft class. Expect the Colts to go OL in the second round.
i. CB Mackenzie Alexander
a. Paxton Lynch could very easily be selected here is the draft unfolds like this. I believe though that the Bills will elect to pass on him here and give Tyrod Taylor some competition with a round 2-3 QB such as Hackenberg or Cook. I just don’t see Lynch falling past the QB needy Jets so it’s just a pipe dream to think he’d fall to Buffalo in round 2. Buffalo could use some DL depth and they could also use a LB so hey best of both worlds (you get the highlights now). Floyd can play with his hand in the dirt when needed and also can play as a OLB. Now just sit back and enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZlXZ_P2xq8 I think the Bills got a steal.
a. Well I kind of gave away this pick in the previous paragraph. But here let me explain. Fitzpatrick is asking way too much to be a stopgap QB and the Jets will most definitely not bring him back and waste their money if this scenario plays out. Geno Smith’s days as the starter are as good as gone in NY but he can be a decent backup for Paxton who will be the closest thing the Jets have seen to a franchise QB since Sanchize and that’s a big stretch. Paxton Lynch is this year’s Blake Bortles to me and may struggle to begin his NFL career but will only get better over time unlike some other QB’s they’ve had under center lately. Fans will have to be patient but in a few years they will love this selection, heck they’ll love it on draft night as well, they’re Jets fans.
a. Again we have options. Washington could use some beef on the DL, aka Billings, they could use a big receiver to help Cousins out, or they could use some interior OL help such as Kelly at center. It’s been a long while since we’ve seen a WR come off the board after the ‘Niners reached for one earlier but I think we’ll have to wait a little while, and when I say a little while I mean like the next pick or two, or both, haven’t decided yet. Washington can get a WR later in the draft who can be a rookie contributor, especially after only one has gone so far. They can also get some beef later on with a historically deep pool of defensive tackles. So I think they elect to help out their offense by adding a new starter at a very underappreciated position.
a. Houston is more than likely going to WR here if they have the options they do. Of the ones that could go round 1 we have Treadwell, Doctson, Thomas, and Fuller. Thomas’s and Docton’s game are both similar to that of Hopkins so I am going to rule them out. Fuller is a burner who could compliment Hopkins nicely and Treadwell would really help Osweiler out with his sticky hands. I’m not sure that a burner is the best option for Osweiler who made his money in Denver by throwing to receivers who he could rely on to be where they are supposed to be, when they are supposed to be and who catch anything thrown in their direction. Treadwell fell this far because of speed concerns but he can run solid routes and has incredible hands; Anquan Boldin proved these receivers can be very valuable to QB’s. He can be the WR Osweiler needs to succeed here.
a. Well my dream prospect was one pick short and I probably am crying into my beer if I’m watching this draft unfold on Thursday night. Those tears then quickly turn to nervous jitters that the Vikes are going to trade down (don’t you dare Rick) but I don’t think they pass up the chance to take a WR who they have been rumored to love giving Teddy a much needed number 1 target. My weird jittery tears now turn to tears of joy. I shouldn’t need to explain this pick; the Vikings have one of the weakest depth charts at the WR position in the league. Here’s the highlight film I will be watching soon after this pick is announced. I am also probably drooling over his insane catch radius, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5J-_-xSx9x0 .
24. Kansas City Chiefs *Trade*
a. A recent run on WR’s has the Chiefs worried, especially with the Bengals looking to fill that position. The Bengals can go other directions and draft a receiver in round 2 without a need for a number 1 receiver with Green on the roster. KC on the other hand could use an impact WR to give the offense the boost they need. Originally I liked them going OL here but with the signing of Schwartz it’s no longer a big need. No it’s time to help out the infamous game manager in a different way, WR. Michael Thomas is one of the most complete receivers in this draft and honestly I think he’s worth the trade up here. If not for the trade up it’s near certain the Bengals take a long hard look at Thomas. Thomas can run clean routes, can pluck the ball out of the air, and is elusive with the ball in his hands. He isn’t elite in any of those categories but he can do it all. If you don’t believe me, watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlgFzwfn-0k .
a. The Steelers are going to be using their whole 10 minutes for this one. They desperately need secondary help and somehow have the options of CB’s Apple and Jackson and any safety on the board. Going off of the Steelers history of hard-nosed defenders expect Pittsburgh to select the first safety off the board. This is a bit of a medical risk but we’ve seen players come back from knee injuries in the past and be just as strong as ever (AP and Gurley); with medical technology this pick is worth the risk. Karl Joseph fits the bill as a hard hitting safety who can hold his own in coverage. This is the successor to Polamalu.
a. The Seahawks are kind of a wildcard here and I’m not sure there’s anyone who really knows that they’re going to do. I would expect them to add to their line on either side of the ball. They lost key pieces on both but let’s be honest the OL needs more help than the DL. But, there is an incredible talent still on the board and if Seattle doesn’t take him here then Green Bay most definitely will. I have talked about him a few times already throughout this draft and couldn’t find the right match until now. Billings is an space eater if I’ve ever seen one and will demand double teams. He will open things up for the guys around him and be just plain disruptive. Looking back at last year Danny Shelton was seen as the best NT in the draft. He was drafted high in the first and somehow Billings made it this far down. I believe Billings is a better prospect coming out of college than Shelton was so in my mind this is a steal. I got to post some highlights because he is impressive front and center of the defense https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afNZkUuJqhA
a. Prepare for a short explanation. GB would have loved for Billings to fall to them and I’m glad that they didn’t get their way. Unfortunately though for us who despise the Packers they still have a player high on their board available here. They need help at LB and have needed it for a while. Here’s their guy and let’s be honest, he’s a little scary. They could use an intimidation factor on defense to balance out Clay’s girly presence. Consider it done.
28. Cincinnati Bengals *Trade*
a. The Bengals want to trade up in front of the Vikings to nab Doctson but I think once they realize what the price will be to take a number 2 receiver they will elect to stay put and then trade down with KC. Their main target was gone so why not trade down with multiple solid WR’s still on the board? For a team looking for a number 2 receiver this is their best move. They would have to hop in front of Houston too (another team that covets a WR) thus driving up the price even more. If I’m the Bengals I would think long and hard about taking a CB here especially with the ones still available, but they seem pretty set on that partner for AJ Green. Yeah they could use it and yeah there isn’t much depth at WR so I’m going to agree with them and take a WR here. With Green being more of a deep ball guy than a jack of all trades, go across the middle, take screens, line up all over the place type of guy. That’s no knock on Green because he os one of the best at what he does but they need a swiss army knife here. Miller flew up draft boards after the combine but has since cooled off. I don’t see him as a first round product (watch his hands on each catch in the highlight film to come) and I worry about drops and the transition to the NFL but he’s a fit for Cincinnati and I don’t believe he will be around when they pick in the second round so here he comes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOXd9tWYuiI
a. Instantly here I start debating between DB and DE. Both would greatly help out the defense and maybe they even debate Jaylon Smith, the best player that everyone is forgetting about. I believe that teams are scared off and he will have to wait until day 2 to hear his name called. So we’re back to the original debate. Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd are both still on the board as are Eli Apple and William Jackson III. I believe the Cardinals come into the first round leaning towards CB because it’s more realistic than arguably a top 15 pick sliding down to them but hey anything is possible. It’s far too tempting to pass up Lawson and Arizona should pull the trigger. He will help out their pass defense by rattling opposing QB’s and their defensive front isn’t getting any younger so they need more help there than CB. Wait! Or they could take an offensive lineman to help protect their aging QB… no, now I’m overthinking things.
a. The Panthers could very easily take an offensive lineman here and it would be a highly graded selection but two CB’s that are very worthy of this selection are still on the board. Norman got greedy and bolted so there’s a big hole left at CB. The Panthers shouldn’t take long with this pick and take the best player available who is also a position of need. They can most definitely take an offensive lineman in the next couple rounds to protect their franchise QB who we all watched in the Super Bowl run around like a chicken with his head cut off. It’s hard to pass up Norman’s replacement here though.
a. I hate making this selection. It’s either a reach at QB or taking a player at a position that isn’t really a huge need. Denver could trade down here and would probably be wise to do so but I think they will struggle to do so with no player really making it worth any team’s while to make it happen. Denver will more than likely be stuck here and could go by the best player available philosophy but come on now we all know Mark “the butt fumble” Sanchez will not actually be the starting QB for the defending Super Bowl champions. This pick is going to be seen as a reach but it’s worth the reach here for Denver.
Well there you have it, nearly 10 hours-worth of work for my couple of readers to enjoy! I love doing these mocks and do them strictly as a hobby (I need a life) and I know I will be wrong on many picks but hey look at other mocks, nobody gets them all that close. You don’t read this to spoil what will happen in the draft, you read it for entertainment and to wonder/visualize what could possibly happen. I recently read a tweet from a writer who said he quit doing mocks because they’re impossible to predict and not worth the time. I instantly thought he was crazy! I write and you read for enjoyment, that’s what this process is all about, the wonder, the suspense, and the mystery. I hope you enjoyed this as much as I enjoyed putting it together. I would like to thank Harris Highlights on YouTube for agreeing to let me use his highlights in my mocks, if you watched the videos I posted links to you can see the quality in his work and I’m happy to have permission to use them. I would also like to give a shout out to Bat Flip Sports; you can find them on Facebook and Twitter specializing in unique semi-biased writing made for your entertainment. And last but certainly not least, a big thanks to my draft partner Chris; he’s always scrolling and refreshing his twitter feed like a madman and updating me with breaking news even before sports apps on my phone come out with an article. Alright though enough rambling, I have a big thick ribeye to marinade for the draft tomorrow night! Enjoy the draft and be sure to boo at your TV as soon as Goodell steps on to the stage for the first time J Check back with me after the draft for a grading of the Vikings complete draft and a redrafting of the 2015 draft. Thank you for reading.
Oh wait I forgot the Patriots… Ha! Just kidding