February 2024 Almanac: Second Worst S&P 500 Month since 1950
February is in the middle of the Best Six Months, but its long-term track record, since 1950, is not that impressive. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average performance except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; historically tend to outpace large-cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.0% in February since 1979—sixth best month for that benchmark. Russell 2000 has had a tough January which could indicate the January Effect may not boost small caps this February.
A strong February in 2000 boosts NASDAQ and Russell 2000 rankings in election years. Otherwise, February’s performance, compared to other presidential-election-year months, is mediocre at best with no large-cap index ranked better than tenth (DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950, Russell 1000 since 1979).
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