#$^dji

[jeffhirsch]

Day After Christmas – Russell 2000 Best Up 73% Of Time

Santa Claus Rally starts today. The Santa Claus Rally was discovered and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 and published in our 1973 Stock Trader’s Almanac as the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. This short, sweet rally is usually good for about 1.3% on the S&P 500, but the real significance of the SCR is as an indicator. 

It is our first seasonal indicator of the year ahead. Years when there was no Santa Claus Rally tended to precede bear markets or times when stocks hit lower prices later in the year. As Yale’s famous line states (2026 Almanac page 118): “If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall.” 

Russell 2000 has logged the greatest frequency (73%) and magnitude of gains (+0.41%) on the day after Christmas. Since 1988, NASDAQ has advanced 70.3% of the time with an average move of +0.37%. DJIA and S&P 500 have slightly softer records, but bullish, nonetheless. 

Two days after Christmas, the market is less bullish with NASDAQ down more often than up. Three days after Christmas R2K small caps take the lead advancing 62.2% of the time with an average gain of +0.46%. 

Looking further out, from 1950-1985 last 5 trading days of the year S&P 500 up 34 of 36 years, average gain 1.24%. 1986-2024 up 21 of 39 (no change in 2006), average gain 0.39%. 

Click here to view table full size…

[angelosmpou]

Today my forest is dark.The trees are sad and all the butterflies have broken wings

[jeffhirsch]

Summer Rally Historically Weakest of All

Temperatures are soaring and the market’s summer rally appears to be cooling. Defined on page 76 of the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the summer rally is from DJIA’s closing low in May or June to its Q3 closing high. As of the close on July 28, DJIA’s Q3 closing high was 45010.29 on July 23 and its low was on May 1 at 40752.96 yielding an above average 10.4% summer rally so far this year. Applying the same parameters to S&P 500 and NASDAQ, both closing at new all-time highs yesterday July 28, results in impressive summer rally gains of 14.0% and 19.7% respectively. Also, well above historical averages.

[jeffhirsch]

DJIA Takes Lead in November with New Closing All-Time High

After a mixed opening day, government shutdown woes and AI valuation concerns knocked the market down through the first five trading days in November. Compared to November’s typical first five trading days over the last 21 years, this year was essentially the opposite. However, the bull market still appears alive and still kicking today with DJIA closing at a new all-time closing high and is now up 0.77% in November. With today’s modest gains, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are also positive in November, up 0.09% and 0.07% respectively. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are the worst performers this month, down 1.08% and 0.85%.

After the run NASDAQ has had, it is not entirely unexpected to see some profit taking and rotation into other potentially more attractive areas of the market. Looking ahead for the remainder of November, some sideways and choppy trading is likely over the next seven trading days before the market could begin to rally to close out the last five trading days.

[jeffhirsch]

May’s First Trading Day: Russell 2000 Best Higher 70.4% of the Time

The first trading day of May has had a bullish history over the past 27 years. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all averaged around 0.35% on the day. Russell 2000 has the best track record, up 19 times or 70.4% of the time since 1998. With an average gain of 0.22%, Russell 2000 is slightly weaker. NASDAQ bullishness fading recently, down 5 of the last 6 years. May’s first trading day’s worst loss was in 2020. DJIA and S&P 500 shed over 2.5% while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 dropped over 3%. In 2022, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 both gained over 1%.

[jeffhirsch]

Russell 2000 Historically Best Ahead of Christmas

Click here to view table full size…

For decades we have been tracking the market’s performance around holidays in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac. In the 58th edition for 2025, data for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 can be found on page 100. Of the eight holidays tracked, Christmas has been one of the most consistently bullish with respectable average gains occurring from 3 days before to the day before. Since 1988, the second day before Christmas, December 23 this year, has been most bullish over the past 36 years with greatest average gains and the highest frequency of advances. 

Small caps measured by Russell 2000 have enjoyed the most consistent strength on all three days. Volatility also tends to be subdued ahead of Christmas with significant declines occurring only in 2018, 2008, 2001 and 2000. 2018 was the only year to see declines on all three days by all four indexes.

[jeffhirsch]

Last Day of April Bearish – NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Down 9 of Last 10

Over the last 21 years, the last trading day of April has come under increasing selling pressure. DJIA, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 have all declined 15 times in 21 years. S&P 500 has one less loss. Average performance ranges from –0.39% by DJIA to –0.95% from Russell 2000. Since 2015, April’s last day has been hit even harder with NASDAQ and Russell 2000 down 9 of 10 while DJIA and S&P 500 have been down 8 of the last 10.