#$qqq

[jeffhirsch]

Did the Trump Cycle Steal Sell in May Weakness?

May 1 kicks off the Worst Six Months. The question this year: did the Iran-driven selloff already do the seasonal work?

The Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle we’ve been tracking remains in play. Five Trump presidency years — 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2025 — share a signature. Turbulence early, a bottom in late March or early April, then a rally into year-end. We added those five years to our S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern chart. 2026 is tracking it closely.

S&P 500 bottomed March 30 at 6343.72, down 9.1% from the January 27 high and hit a new record today, up 12.9% in 25 days. NASDAQ is at a record up 19.4% from the low. DJIA is 1.9% off its February 10 all-time high. The December Low Indicator triggered in March and was recovered quickly — historically a green light when paired with a positive January Barometer.

Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell signal hasn't triggered, yet. The market will likely mark time through the 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot as the Iran conflict works toward resolution. Then the Q4 Sweet Spot. Our 2026 base case — 8-12% full-year gains — remains intact. If the conflict doesn't resolve and the Sell signal fires, we rotate.

Don't miss the Signal. Be first to know. Subscribers get the Seasonal MACD Sell Signal the moment it triggers right in their inboxes. Join Almanac Investor → https://stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/get-Almanac-for-free.aspx

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with just 2 trading days left in the month of June, equity markets were settling into a consolidation zone for the large caps as money rotated into the flying small caps. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil ($USO) joined with its own short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue higher testing a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) paused after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. Making a new all-time high with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, was looking strong, after a new all-time high both Thursday and Friday.

The week played out with Gold finding support and showing a bounce Thursday while Crude Oil continued to move lower. The US Dollar pulled back from its recent high while Treasuries fell back near to bottom of the consolidation range. The Shanghai Composite managed a small bounce off of its long term moving average while Emerging Markets continued to consolidate at a higher low.

The Volatility Index fell back all week ending near the lows of the year. This relieved pressure on equities and they rose early in the week with the SPY continuing through Wednesday but the IWM and QQQ stalling and seeing late week profit taking. The SPY joined them Thursday, short of the June high. The QQQ is narrowing a consolidation range while the IWM holds near record highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week about 3.5% off its high and consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. It set the bottom rail of the triangle Monday and then rose Tuesday and Wednesday. It briefly touched the top Thursday before reversing lower to close just above the 20 day SMA.The RSI is level at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD falling and about to turn negative after failing to cross up. Downside risk remains with the momentum divergence drawing another lower high, for now.

The weekly chart shows a narrow inside candle closing at the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is drifting lower in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over and positive. There is support lower at 742 and 740 then 733 and 728 before 724 and 718. There is resistance above at 748.50 and 751.50 then 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

With the month of June and its non-farm payroll report in the rearview mirror, the high correlation of the equity market indexes may be starting to disconnect. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term downtrend along with Crude Oil extending its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries continue to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets pause and digest after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. Despite this the broad indexes have gone nowhere on the week. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still have some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, is looking strong, after making a new all-time high Tuesday. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview July 2, 2026. Don't miss out on the early Summer Day Sale. Get an annual subscription for 30% off. Subscribe here.

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the start of earnings season, equity markets seemed to have settled into a consolidation at their all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the short term downtrend along with Crude Oil ($USO) after its Dead Cat Bounce. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and a transition into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) threatened to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ looked ready to start a drift to the upside and possibly overtake the $IWM as leaders again. They all continued to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY made a higher high, a first step, and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. The IWM, however, started to feel the pinch of the negative momentum divergence in its consolidation.

The week played out with Gold continuing lower to support while Crude Oil revived the cat and rose to a 1 month high. The US Dollar once again failed to break to new highs and fell to support while Treasuries continued to hold just over the May lows. The Shanghai Composite fell to an 11 month low while Emerging Markets closed at a 2½ month low.

Volatility held in the normal range until a spike up Friday that sold back intraday, remaining in the normal zone. As a result equities stagnated early in the week with the QQQ leading lower Thursday and SPY following Friday. This resulted in the QQQ closing at a 5 week low while the SPY and IWM held in their consolidation ranges. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week cracking the symmetrical triangle to the upside and at a higher high. It held there in a tight range through Thursday and gapped down at the open Friday to fall back into the triangle and under both the 20 and 50 day SMA’s. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD rolling over and positive.

The weekly chart shows another narrow candle closing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD avoiding a roll over and positive. There is support lower at 742 and 740 then 733 and 728 before 724 and 718. There is resistance above at 748.50 and 751.50 then 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

With July options expiry in the rearview mirror and heading deep into earnings season, equity markets seem to be a bit unsettled as the high correlation between the indexes slightly unraveled. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the downtrend but with Crude Oil reversing to the upside. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to hold at the top of the 15 month range while US Treasuries continue to threaten to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the confirmation of a reversal to a downtrend while Emerging Markets hang on by a thread in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone after a threat of a move higher keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. They could use that as the charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM are showing cracks on the shorter timeframe. The QQQ is the worst followed by the IWM with the SPY holding the strongest. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview July 17, 2026

[jeffhirsch]

Day After Christmas – Russell 2000 Best Up 73% Of Time

Santa Claus Rally starts today. The Santa Claus Rally was discovered and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 and published in our 1973 Stock Trader’s Almanac as the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. This short, sweet rally is usually good for about 1.3% on the S&P 500, but the real significance of the SCR is as an indicator. 

It is our first seasonal indicator of the year ahead. Years when there was no Santa Claus Rally tended to precede bear markets or times when stocks hit lower prices later in the year. As Yale’s famous line states (2026 Almanac page 118): “If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall.” 

Russell 2000 has logged the greatest frequency (73%) and magnitude of gains (+0.41%) on the day after Christmas. Since 1988, NASDAQ has advanced 70.3% of the time with an average move of +0.37%. DJIA and S&P 500 have slightly softer records, but bullish, nonetheless. 

Two days after Christmas, the market is less bullish with NASDAQ down more often than up. Three days after Christmas R2K small caps take the lead advancing 62.2% of the time with an average gain of +0.46%. 

Looking further out, from 1950-1985 last 5 trading days of the year S&P 500 up 34 of 36 years, average gain 1.24%. 1986-2024 up 21 of 39 (no change in 2006), average gain 0.39%. 

Click here to view table full size…

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the month of June and its non-farm payroll report in the rearview mirror, the high correlation of the equity market indexes was starting to disconnect. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend along with Crude Oil ($USO) extending its downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) paused and digested after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. Despite this the broad indexes had gone nowhere on the week. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, was looking strong, after making a new all-time high Tuesday.

The week played out with Gold consolidating under the short term moving average while Crude Oil met resistance at the cross of its short term and long term moving averages in a bounce and fell back. The US Dollar held in a tight range around its short term moving average while Treasuries fell through support and consolidated at 6 week lows. The Shanghai Composite bounced after a fall through support to end at its long term moving average while Emerging Markets consolidated over support.

The Volatility Index ticked down early in the week but spiked briefly intraday Wednesday before resuming the move lower to end the week at the June low. This pinned equities early in the week but hey rose to new highs Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also improving early but ending the week surviving a midweek hiccup lower. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week in a symmetrical triangle just above the 20 day SMA. It rose to the upper rail Monday and got knocked back through Wednesday, but only to the 20 day SMA. Thursday it moved higher cracking the triangle and Friday continued to close at a higher high. The RSI is rising off the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD rising and positive.

The weekly chart shows another narrow candle closing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD avoiding a roll over and positive. There is support lower at 751.50 and 748.50 followed by 742 and 740 then 733 and 728. There is resistance above at 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

Heading into the start of earnings season, equity markets seem to have settled into a consolidation at their all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the short term downtrend along with Crude Oil after its Dead Cat Bounce. The US Dollar Index looks to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and transition into an uptrend while US Treasuries threaten to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range while Emerging Markets consolidate in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ look ready to start a drift to the upside and possibly overtake the IWM as leaders again. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY made a higher high, a first step, and the QQQ still has some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, possibly starting to feel the pinch of the negative momentum divergence in its consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview July 10, 2026

[jeffhirsch]

Christmas in July Starts Today: Jump on NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally

Ho! Ho! Ho! The week after June Triple Witching delivered its usual weakness — and that weakness is the setup. Today opens NASDAQ's 12-day Midyear Rally, driven by quarter-end portfolio adjustments, fresh capital inflows at the start of a new quarter, and improving sentiment heading into earnings season.

Picked up some $TQQQ early this morning. ProShares UltraPro QQQ, the 3x leveraged NASDAQ 100, is the perfect vehicle for this trade. June delivered the usual seasonal weakness and set up a textbook midyear rally led by NASDAQ. This 12-day run — the last three trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July — is what we call Christmas in July.

Since 1985, NASDAQ has averaged 2.5% over this 12-trading-day window, with a median advance of 2.9% — the typical year beats the mean. The rally has produced gains in 32 of the last 41 years, a 78% hit rate. It has held up across bull markets, bear markets, recessions, and recoveries.

The biggest moves came in sharply different regimes. NASDAQ surged 10.4% in 1999 and 10.0% in 2000 through the dot-com boom and bust, and 9.6% in 2016 as the market snapped back from the Brexit shock. More recently: 4.7% in 2020, 4.1% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024, and 3.3% last year.

The rally has failed nine times since 1985 — market conditions and unexpected events can overwhelm any seasonal pattern. But a 78% hit rate and a 2.5% average gain over 12 trading days is a setup worth trading.

[jeffhirsch]

Income Tax Deadline, Earnings Season & Iran War: Second Half of April Historically Better

April is the second-best month of the year for DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1950) and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). Despite pressure from the Iran war, surging energy costs, and the pending income tax deadline on April 15, the market has gotten off to a strong start this April. Gains as of today’s close range from 0.52% by DJIA to a solid 1.98% from NASDAQ.

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since around 1994 that has not been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline does appear to be diminished with strength generally present throughout April. Traders and investors also appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

Post-tax deadline, the market has been generally stronger since 1994, most notably for NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Exactly how much and to what extent first half of April sideways-to-higher trading is due to tax obligations versus positioning ahead of earnings, is challenging to separate. Nonetheless, the combination of these events does appear to shift much of April’s strength into the second half of the month. This effect could be enhanced by any positive step toward a cease fire and/or some de-escalation of the war with Iran.

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the month of May in the books and heading into a non-farm payroll week, equities continued to show strength, printing more new all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue walking the fence between a downtrend and digestion in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) bounced around in tightening consolidation around $100/bbl but near a change of character to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to drift higher in broad consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to test support in consolidation after avoiding a shift in character.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue digestion in the short term uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) made new highs in their uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue lower in the normal zone, giving a tailwind to equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe with a 9th positive week for the SPY. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also looked very strong, with all printing all-time highs to start the week and then again Thursday. The SPY and QQQ ended with a 3rd record while the IWM was just short of joining them.

The week played out with Gold falling back to retest the March lows while Crude Oil rebounded but stopped at another lower high and fell back. The US Dollar drifted up until a thrust Friday saw it finish at a 2 month high while Treasuries held in a tight range at support. The Shanghai Composite continued lower negating the short term uptrend and finishing at a nearly 2 month low while Emerging Markets started the week with back-to-back all-time highs before a sharp sell off.

The Volatility Index held in a tight range in the normal zone near the lows of the year. This initially gave equities a boost early in the week and they printed back-to-back all time highs to start the week. The rest of the week saw a bigger range and choppiness with the resultant move to the downside. This resulted in the SPY the QQQ and the IWM falling back to and through their short term moving averages. This was the first time since early April for the SPY and QQQ. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at another all-time high. And the new week started with 2 more all-time highs Monday and Tuesday before a pause. Thursday saw a drop at the open recover all day and then it ended the week Friday printing a Marubozu Kicker candle (reversal) and strong move to the downside. This left it below the 20 day SMA for the first time since the beginning of April. The RSI is dropping at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD dropping and positive.

The weekly chart shows the price pulling back through the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop and ending the streak of 9 positive weeks in a row. The RSI is rolling over in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. There is support lower at 733 and 728 then 724 and 718 before 715 and 710. There is resistance above at 742 and 748.50 then 751.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the first week of June and the strong May employment report in the books, sentiment is shifting in the equity markets after starting the week at all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil falls in consolidation under $100/bbl, near a change of character to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to move higher in broad consolidation near the top of the range while US Treasuries continue to test support in consolidation after avoiding a shift in character. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue digestion in the short term uptrend, on the edge of a shift to downtrend, while Emerging Markets pull back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue lower in the normal zone, but higher, giving a bit less of a tailwind to equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe and have reset out of overbought conditions. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also look strong, with all printing all-time highs to start the week, but resetting momentum lower with short term pullbacks to end the week. This could continue. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview June 5, 2026

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