#$^ftse

[jlfmi]

High Low Friday – 2/28/2020

Here are some of the most noteworthy new highs and lows across the markets for Friday, February 28, 2020.

These are but a few of the highs and lows resulting from a truly historic week in the markets.

The most important index, the Value Line Geometric Composite, is testing the most important line in the equity market...again. Will the breakout level of the former multi-decade triple highs hold -- or will it be a massive false breakout?  $VLG $VALUG

Similarly, UK's $FTSE is testing the breakout level of its former highs spanning multiple decades.

The rush into bonds pushed the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield $TNX to all-time lows.

Fear abounds as the 1-month:3-month S&P 500 Volatility Index Ratio ($VIX:$VXV) moved to its highest reading ever outside of the financial crisis.

Lastly, an index that we use as a Risk Barometer on the market, the S&P Small-Cap Pure Value Index $SPSPV, has fallen to 4-year lows. It also topped out on December 31, creating a striking divergence that allowed us to reduce our investment risk in recent weeks.

If you’d like to see these charts as they come out in real-time, follow us on Twitter and StockTwits. And if you’re interested in the daily “all-access” version of all our charts and research, please check out our site, The Lyons Share. You can follow our investment process and posture every day — including insights into what we’re looking to buy and sell and when. We are also holding a Launch Anniversary Sale with prices set at the ORIGINAL 33% 40% OFF LAUNCH RATE! So it’s a perfect time to join! Thanks for reading!

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Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

[jlfmi]

Trendline Wednesday – 1/1/2020

Here are some of the most noteworthy trendline developments across the markets for Wednesday, January 1, 2020.

30-Year Yield $TYX Testing Post-2018 Down Trendline

Energy SPDR $XLE Testing Broken Post-2018 Down Trendline

Swiss Franc ETF $FXF Testing Post-2011 Down Trendline

Spanish Stocks Testing Post-2017 Down Trendline

UK’s $FTSE-100 Index Testing Post-2018 Down Trendline

If you’d like to see these charts as they come out in real-time, follow us on Twitter and StockTwits. And if you’re interested in the daily “all-access” version of all our charts and research, please check out our site, The Lyons Share. You can follow our investment process and posture every day — including insights into what we’re looking to buy and sell and when. Plus, we’re holding our Holiday Sale right now with Annual Memberships at 20% OFF — so it’s a perfect time to sign up! Thanks for reading!

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Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

[jlfmi]

Trendline Wednesday – 12/4/2019

Here are some of the most noteworthy trendline developments across the markets for Wednesday, December 4, 2019.

UK’s $FTSE-100 Index Testing Post-2009 Up Trendline

British Pound ETF $FXB Testing Post-2014 Down Trendline

Value Line Geometric Composite $VALUG Testing Broken Post-2018 Down Trendline…Again

Biotech Index $BTK Testing Post-2018 Down Trendline

Industrial SPDR $XLI Testing Broken Post-2018 Down Trendline

If you’d like to see these charts as they come out in real-time, follow us on Twitter and StockTwits. And if you’re interested in the daily “all-access” version of all our charts and research, please check out our site, The Lyons Share. You can follow our investment process and posture every day — including insights into what we’re looking to buy and sell and when. Thanks for reading!

_____________

Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

[jlfmi]

British Stocks Floored?

UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 is testing breakout support going back several decades.

In the U.S., market participants can get so wrapped up in every waggle in the S&P 500 that they sometimes forget there’s a whole world of stock market action occurring at all times around the globe. One of the more noteworthy developments at the moment is happening across the pond in the United Kingdom (FYI, we’re talking about a concrete, market-based development, not inane Brexit drama).

We’ve covered the UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 many times in recent years. But for those uninitiated in that market, here is a recap. Like many markets in the U.S. and around the world, the FTSE topped out back in 2000 just under the 7000 mark. Following a bear market and subsequent recovery, the FTSE again topped out in the same vicinity in 2007. Then once again, after another bear market, the index recovered to the same level in 2013, where it was rebuffed again.

In 2015, the FTSE was finally able to decisively break out above the 7000 level...temporarily. After just 3 months above that level, it broke back down below it during the global equity selloff that year.  It wasn’t until late 2016 that the FTSE was able to finally stay above the 7000 level. Holding above there has not been easy, though. This year has seen the FTSE test that breakout level on several occasions, in March and again in October.

And as our Chart Of The Day reveals, the FTSE is once again testing that breakout level down below 7000.

So why is this development so noteworthy? One classical rule of thumb in technical analysis or charting is that resistance, once broken, becomes support (and vice versa). And, in theory, the more formidable the broken resistance is, the more fortified the resultant support should be. Therefore, given the fact that this ~7000 range served as resistance for the better part of 2 decades, it should serve as very strong support.

Certainly, if the FTSE can hold above this long-term breakout level, it has considerable potential upside -- the sky’s the limit at all-time highs. Perhaps it can even serve as a beacon for other markets in the developed world. On the other hand, if this level gives way again, we could have another “false breakout” on our hands, potentially resulting in extensive further downside for the FTSE. That’s why this development is seemingly so important.

In a Premium Post at The Lyons Share, we share the precise levels to watch here, as well as how to potentially take advantage of this opportunity.

If you’re interested in the “all-access” version of our charts and research, please check out our premium site, The Lyons Share. You can follow our investment process and posture every day — including insights into what we’re looking to buy and sell and when. And if you’re interested in a huge Black Friday discount in advance, send us an email at [email protected] and we will hook you up. Thanks for reading!

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Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

[jlfmi]

(Trend-)Setting The Stage For Market Fireworks?

More major global equity indices have joined the ranks of those testing key bull market trendlines.

Last week, we highlighted the plethora of major stock market indices that were testing (breaking?) key uptrend lines across the European region. As this week’s edition of #TrendlineWednesday on Twitter points out, the “trend” of important global equity indices undergoing key trendline tests has expanded. And one of the more significant trendline tests that we have observed across the globe can be found in China.

As we pointed out to premium members of The Lyons Share a month ago, not only is the benchmark Chinese Shanghai Composite (SSEC) testing its lows from early 2016, it is also testing an Up trendline that is more than 2 decades old.

As the chart shows, the SSEC is testing its post-1996 Up trendline which connects its lows from 2005 and 2013-2014. We don’t want to over-emphasize the influence of the SSEC, and this trendline, on the fate of the global equity market. However, there is no question that a further meltdown could have adverse effects on global equities, particularly emerging markets.

Re-visiting the European region, we find yet another major index testing a bull market Up trendline. In the case, the UK’s FTSE-100 is testing its post-2016 Up trendline.

Will the FTSE suffer the same fate as its European counterparts — or does its technical structure offer a different outcome? That is to be determined. However, like the Shanghai Composite, the outcome could cause ripples — or fireworks — across the global equity landscape.

At The Lyons Share, we comb the charting globe every day for our members to unearth these important trendlines and technical developments. Not only that, we lay out ways to take advantage of these potential opportunities as well. If you’re interested in the “all-access” version of our charts and research, please check out our new site, The Lyons Share. You can follow our investment process and posture every day — including insights into what we’re looking to buy and sell and when. Thanks for reading!

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Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

[jlfmi]

Investors Get Another Chance To Hop On The FTSE Bus

The UK’s FTSE-100 dropped to once again test the level of last year’s breakout to all-time high.

There was no shortage of breakouts among global equity markets in 2016. Perhaps the most monumental, however, was that of the UK’s FTSE-100. Following a 15-year triple top between 1999 and 2014, and a false breakout in 2015, the UK’s benchmark index finally managed a seemingly successful breakout to new all-time highs, as we noted in a post at the end of 2016. After about a 3.5% pop to start the year, the FTSE returned to test the level of its breakout, around 7100, near the end of January, as we indicated to investors at the time. Or, as we put it, the FTSE appeared to be giving investors another chance to “”board the FTSE bus” prior to an ultimate run higher. Indeed, the test proved successful and the FTSE subsequently took investors along for a ride, to the tune of 5% into mid-March. 

It appeared as though the bus had left the station and those investors who had failed to jump aboard at the end of January had likely missed the bus completely. However, last week, following the snap election news out of the UK, the FTSE bus once again returned to the spot of its breakout, giving investors one more chance to hop aboard. However, they needed to hop on quickly as the FTSE has already sped out of the station as if driven by one of those belligerently impatient bus drivers. Specifically, the FTSE popped higher yesterday, gaining more than 2%.

So what next? Well, if it is another successful breakout test, there should be a lot more legs to this rally, i.e., investors who failed to “board the bus” previously can still get on at the next stop without missing too much. However, it is always nice to pick one’s optimal bus stop -- you just have to be ready for the bus.

Were you ready for the FTSE bus when it stopped last week? At The Lyons Share, we’ve been highlighting this potential setup for members for the past week. Check out this Premium TLS Post at our new “all-access” site for ideas on how to take advantage of this development in UK stocks. And don’t miss the bus -- sign up for The Lyons Share!

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Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

[jlfmi]

Another Chance To Hop Aboard The FTSE Bus?

The UK’s FTSE-100 Index is testing the level from which it broke out to all-time highs a month ago.

Our final Chart Of The Day, and accompanying post, for 2016 focused on the UK’s main stock index, the FTSE-100. Specifically, it noted that the index was breaking out to all-time highs. More specifically, the tone of the post was the new high’s juxtaposition against the consensus calls for financial calamity in the UK following the Brexit vote. The epic pundit forecasting whiff aside, the main point for investors was quite simply the significance of the FTSE’s new high, above the peaks of April 2015 and October 2016.

Furthermore, as a reminder, the new high near the 7100 level also marked a decisive break above the peaks from 1999-2000 and 2007.

Thus, the significance of this breakout cannot be overstated. There is no guarantee that the breakout will be successful, of course. But after waiting 17 years, 2 cyclical tops and a serious intermediate-term top, the breakout of a month ago is a chart watcher’s dream. And the good news is, if you missed the breakout the first time, you’re getting another shot at it now. That’s because after about a 3.5% pop following the breakout, the FTSE-100 has now pulled back and is approaching a test of that breakout level.

Again, there is no guarantee in this business. All one can do is try to garner the best odds of success in a trade. In this case, testing 17 years of former resistance turned possible support represents about as high odds as one can hope to find. So needless to say there is compelling evidence to hop aboard the FTSE bus here.

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More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

The commentary included in this blog is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific investment product or service. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

Another Chance To Hop Aboard The FTSE Bus? was originally published on The Lyons Share

[jlfmi]

Year-End All-Time High In British Stocks Defies Forecasts

In a development you would not have seen forecast in any Brexit-related headlines 6 months ago, U.K.’s FTSE-100 closed 2016 at an all-time high.

Quick, name the only major (that leaves you out, Pakistan) global country index to close the year at an all-time high. As you’ve probably gathered by the headline, the sub-heading or the image, it is Great Britain. Considering the events of 6 months ago, that statement is beyond ironic. Of course, the events to which we are referring revolve around the Brexit vote by the people of Great Britain to leave the European Union. Prior to the vote, almost no one expected the Brexit referendum to pass. Furthermore, if it hypothetically did pass, nobody expected the U.K.’s FTSE-100 Index to fare too well in the aftermath. Thus, the fictitious newspaper shown above would have been the last thing market observers would have expected to see.

But that is one of the beauties of the market. It continuously delivers results that human nature dares not even conceive of. So it was in this instance as Brexit passed and, despite the assured forecasts by pundits, pollsters and prognosticators, the FTSE did not crash. Oh, it did plummet in the few days following the vote. However, by a week later, the FTSE-100 was above its pre-Brexit levels and on its way to all-time highs 3 months later. Another 3 months later and we see the FTSE closing the year at a new record high.

Naturally, the extensive weakness in the British Pound had something to do with propping up the FTSE -- but hardly all of it. The likely biggest contribution to the FTSE rise was the consensus view in opposition to it, particularly following the Brexit vote.

Along with “BTBTD” (Back To Buying The Dip), 2016 will go down as the folly of the forecasters given the events of Brexit, then the U.S. election. And if 2016 taught us anything about the markets, it is to expect the unexpected. That is one thing we can reliably expect to see more of in 2017.

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More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

The commentary included in this blog is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific investment product or service. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.