#$cnw

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Con-Way Stock at a Fork in the Road

Often times the signals provided by different types of technical analysis can be in conflict with each other. I am sure this is one reason that many think that technicals are a bunch of hogwash. But often those conflicts can be resolved with a little bit of a deeper review. A good example of this is looking at seasonality that suggests a move higher while the stock is falling. This can be resolved by an understanding of timeframe. But those conflicts can also be a signal that something is about to happen or change.

There is a conflict in the chart of Con-Way, $CNW, at the moment. Is it a signal of a change or just a timeframe issue?

The chart above shows that Con-Way started to move up off of a higher low October 30th. As it moved up the RSI started higher as well. When it broke above the October 28th high it triggered a bearish Bat harmonic, with a Potential Reversal Zone at 52. Good upside potential.

But since breaking that high, the stock has done nothing but move sideways and is now printing a doji, signaling indecision, at the 50 day SMA. And the RSI is flattening without a move into the bullish zone over 60. Signs of a rollover?

This type of conflict presents opportunity for a trader. A continuation higher, over the 50 day SMA, triggers a long trade looking for that 52 level, and using a break back under the 50 day SMA as a stop loss. Conversely a move under 46 could trigger a short trade using the 50 day SMA as a stop loss looking for a retracement to the low at 'C'. What do you see?

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5 Trade Ideas for Monday: BioMarin Pharmaceutical, CBOE, Con-Way, Progressive and Zoetis

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Ticker: BMRN

BioMarin Pharmaceutical, BMRN, is completing a 'W-V' and looks ready for more upside price action. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising with a MACD crossed up, as it is about to print a Golden Cross.

CBOE, Ticker: CBOE

CBOE, CBOE, had a long run higher from mid July, breaking resistance and topping out at 56. Over the last two weeks it is pulled back but Thursday and Friday showed signs of that ending, with long lower shadows on the candlestick. Buyers showing up. The RSI has held at the mid line so far but the MACD is falling still.

Con-Way, Ticker: CNW

Con-Way, CNW, is testing the falling trend resistance as it bounces off of the 100 day SMA. The RSI is turning back higher and the MACD is leveling. There is a longer scale RSI Positive Reversal in the works that looks for new highs on continuation.

Progressive, Ticker: PGR

The 25.50 to 25.65 range for Progressive, PGR, has been important all year, with but one 2 day venture above it. It is at that resistance zone again with a bullish RSI and a flat MACD as it consolidates. Three taps in the past month and from higher lows has me looking for a break higher.

Zoetis, Ticker: ZTS

Zoetis, ZTS, made a strong run higher from a base between 32 and 33 before topping last week. The pullback lasted only 2 days before moving back up. It is close to approaching the prior high and the RSI remains bullish. But the last 4 days could be a bear flag, and the MACD heading lower supports more downside. Up or down, does not matter, there are two potential trades here.

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, closing out the 3rd Quarter, sees the equity indexes in retrench mode but without major damage yet. Elsewhere look for Gold to bounce around and possible rise in the downtrend while Crude Oil has a similar read with a reversal in the works, maybe. The US Dollar Index remains on fire, and maybe a little too hot in need of a rest while US Treasuries are moving higher. The Shanghai Composite remains strong and looks to go higher while Emerging Markets are biased to the downside. Volatility looks to remain subdued but with a risk higher keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. The indexes themselves are looking better to the downside in the short run, with the IWM near support and the QQQ strong on the longer scale with the SPY likely to see a bit more downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

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3 Truckers Stocks that Keep on Truckin' Higher

The S&P 500 is taking a pause and turning leadership over the the Russell 2000 Tuesday. But amongst this shift one group just keep moving higher. Three of them, Con-Way, Knight Transportation and Old Dominion Freight Lines are driving towards break outs and giving you a trade opportunity.

Con-Way had a brief pullback to reset the momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) through July. But since then it ran higher and has consolidated under resistance at 52 in a descending triangle pattern. As it moves above it, there is a target of 54 on the stock price.

After a drifting consolidation period that has gone on since May, Knight Transportation made contact with the 100 day SMA and is now moving higher. The series of moves higher followed by brief consolidating pullbacks suggest this leg could reach 26.25 before the next consolidation.

But the most impressive trucker of the bunch just may be Old Dominion Freight Lines. This stock has run higher from tax day in April to a peak in early June before a pullback. Since it started higher and cleared the June high it now carries a target of 73.20 on a AB=CD pattern. The key to this stock seems it needs to be on the right side of the 20 day SMA. Today is giving you the trading criteria as it is breaking above short term resistance at 67.60 with a natural stop under the consolidation at 66.25.

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